₦airaland Forum

What a shame.

senatordave1:
I didnt question you on lagos and kwara.amechi lost in 2015 because he thought things would be free and fair but pdp swept him with thugs and federal might.there was no result sheets at his own polling unit to tell you how brazen and desperate the rigging was.during the 2016 rerun,apc got 35% of the seats and since then apc have gotten stronger while wike has lost key men.i see atiku winning rivers but with lower margins.
If you analyze most presidential results,you will notice massive righing by pdp.this is no more possible.with or without mama taraba buhari has alwatlys gotten 30% there plus i dont think t.y danjuma supported him after buhari lost taraba and even in danjuma lga.i also didnt challenge that of plateau.just reduce atiku margins in the ss,se and you will get the real results...

Ok ohh. Let's leave that to the part of little subjectivity in my analysis. thanks

senatordave1:
Op,o like your analysis,it looks like the one done by chozzy yesterday,very tight but you veered off.you refused to allow your research lead you but forcefully allocated figures for atiku.if buhari is winning more states than atiku,it means that he will win considering that his bases have more voters plus he has more rigging capacity and sphere.let me do a zone by zone breakdown.
In the south east,gej got 2.4 million in 2015,there's no way atiku will get more than this considering their apathy which is less than 40%.atiku cant poll more than 300k in ebonyi,500k in enugu or more than 500k in abia.am OK with anambra and imo. considering the pvc collection rate plus the looming ipob boycott.highest atiku will get here is 3 million,i see apga getting close to a million votes while i dont see apc getting up to a million.
Same reasons above should apply to ss,i see buhari getting close to 500k in rivers,dont see pdp getting over a million,pdp doesn't have the monopoly of rigging.pdp cant get up to 500k in cross river,its my state.apc should get above 300k in delta,am alright with akwa ibom and edo.bayelsa gave their son 350k,expect massive apathy here.in all i don't see atiku getting more than 4 million here with apc getting over a million.you should factor in apathy and ipob menace in rivers.
For the south west,i think am okay.i feel atiku will win a state here,maybe ekiti.the apc winning margin in oyo is too high,reduce,same for ogun.
Am okay with your final tally for the north central,i have always stated that a narrow victory for anybody will suffice here.winning margin wont exceed 500k.i dont see pdp winning with more than 200k in benue,am good with plateau,nasarawa and kwara although apc can also win kwara nartowly.buhari always wins niger massively,i dont see atiku getting over 300k here with buhari getting up to a million.am good with kogi though i see a narrow apc win.
For north east,i think atiku will narrowly win adamawa and taraba.he cant win taraba with more than 100k plus the turnout and voting power here is low.buhari has never lost gombe.i dont think atiku will get more than 200k,i expect buhari to get up to 500k.pdp is non existent in yobe and borno so i dont see them getting more than 100k here especially with the heavy military presence there.i see buhari getting up to 500k in yobe and 1 million im borno.i see buhari getting over a million in bauchi,pdp have never exceeded 300k here.
In the north west,i dont see atiku getting more than 200k in katsina or up to a million in kano.i dont see him getting up to 400k in jigawa while busting should get at least 1 million.pdp is non existent in zamfara,100k should be enough.there weak in kebbi,200k should be OK.i dont see atiku getting more than 700k in kaduna or more than 300k in sokoto.the north west is buhari region,dont expect any free and fair result here,expect massive rigging for buhari.kwankwaso,lamido and tambuwal will be overwhelmed.

I don't think I veered from my research. Well, maybe some one or 2 misconceptions. Many people dwell too much on 2015 election results as a basis for predicting 2019 forgetting that the dynamics are quite different. In Plateau, APC won cos Jang brought someone from his tribe against the general interest of the citizens. Today, things are diff. In Taraba, Mama Taraba with the support of Ty Danjuma helped pull votes for Buhari. Today, the dynamics are different. Remember that apart from Yobe, Borno and Zamfara, most of the states in the north are Traditionally Pdp states. It's funny how you think Amaechi as a sitting governor who could not garner up to 5% of the votes cast in rivers will now do great magic for Buhari but u can't see how Saraki and a sitting governor, Tambuwal as a sitting governor and Kwankwaso can pull voters for Atiku. You said Atiku can't get 700k votes in Kaduna? Lol. Remember that Pdp has always won Lagos in Presidential polls. Except for 2015 of coz but margin ain't huge. sha, na 5 days na im remain. I either cry or laugh. Let's hope and pray for a violence free election.

SternProphet:
Atiku is not winning the election. My analysis shows wins in only SIX states. He will lose almost all northern and NC states.

well, I gave u a detailed analysis. do well to put up urs. so Buhari will win Rivers, Cross River, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Delta abi? Buhari will also win Anambra, Imo, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Abia Abi? Buhari will also win Kwara, Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa and Taraba abi? keep being in the euphoria of 2015.

well, the election is here and there are predictions and counter-predictions. i have decided to do mine too. For me, having voted and observed the voting pattern in the north and down south, i have drawn up my own "objective" prediction. Of coz, some subjectivity cant be ruled out but i believe there is more objectivity than subjectivity here. I have looked at the voting pattern from 2003 to 2011 prior to the introduction of card readers and also the voting pattern in 2015. Even with rigging of elections from all parties concerned, voter turnout is always poor. i also believe that duplicity, dead voters, crisis/insurgency have helped upped the voter register while keeping turnout poor. I have thus estimated the expected voter turnout. I have also used only two parties - APC vs PDP. Of coz, most of you will agree that the others will hardly win any LGA in Nigeria. i have attached an image of the analysis but you may need to zoom to get it better. i have attached a pdf too. its better.

In summary, although the president didnt get beyond 5% of votes from SE, i have upped it considering he is now president and dynamics have slightly changed. I expect Atiku to do more than 20% in Katsina but have kept it within reasonable range. Adamawa will vote Atiku and he is likely to win there. But with a sitting APC governor who though a protegee of Atiku, i expect the Buhari sentiment to be high hence the 50%. For Kaduna and Kano, the dynamics of these two are complex. Lets just say anything can happen but i stand by what i have stated. Make no mistake about Plateau. Plateau is my 2nd home. The governor aint returning, this i strongly believe. Protest vote against Jang brought him to power and same will send him out. For those thinking Saraki and a sitting governor will amount to nothing in Kwara, you are day dreaming. Imo is 35% for Buhari cos of Rochas. It may be more or less but we cant underestimate a sitting governor. I dont expect Buhari to do more than 30% in Rivers, Amaechi notwithstanding. Let's leave it here. For the Southwest, i expect Atiku to do well in most states. From the pattern of voting there, opposition wins most time but the pdp always trails closely. i dont expect it to differ greatly now... Argue with your bonus data.
Truth is, except if the APC outdo the PDP in rigging this election, Atiku is favoured. its still likely a very tight race.

edoman2016:
Bro, please how much is a rotary oven?

I've known luke and jude in Lagos to be suppliers since late 90s. Google their contact. Macadams too. They shld give u details of current price but I think it is upward of 3mill

edoman2016:
Baking 80 bags of flour in a day! Damn, opening a bakery with such capacity must be more than 15 million Naira. It will require automated machines.

15 wetin? There are people that have sank over 50mill in bakeries. imagine a bakery with 4 rotary ovens.

edoman2016:
How many bags of flour do you think the bigger bakers used in their bakery daily?

It depends. market varies from place to place and time to time. I know of a bakery that does 80bags on Saturdays during the bread season. And I have done training with one that does btw 7-20 bags a day. Infact, when the bread season is out, there are days they don't produce due to glut. bakery business is abt quality, and most importantly, marketing.

nevplus:
Yes,it is a profitable business.you are supposed to gain 4k per bag.so multiply by 10 bags,you know what is the answer.

If you are to start in small scale,then I will advice you to open near busy road so that you gain a lot selling fresh bread from oven to passer by.hot bread sells more than hot cake in that kind of place. If you are to start in big scale ,then you need to open it in area where bakery is scarce so that people around will be rushing your product. Make sure produce both big and small size.never underrate the small size,that is where the gain lies.you then use your vehicle to distribute

4k per bag ain't feasible with the high cost of materials. At best, 2.5k and that's for bigger bakeries with bread selling for 300-500 naira. the secret of profit in bread making is high volume. that's where the bigger bakers edge out smaller ones.

Of all the trillions they claim have been generated all this while, they can't do ordinary 70bn. Buhari is too stubborn.

senatordave1:
You dont care but address me as a northerner an aboki you inyamiri.what a stark bigot.ofcourse card reader wont be used.anything to destroy your oga

Aboki means friend in Hausa. get some education my Aboki.

senatordave1:
Am not a northerner bigot.am a southerner.total registered voters is now up to 3.9 million and 3 million can come out.judging by the campaign mood,his support in kaduna has risen.he will win kaduna as you said plus the polls.

Who cares whether u are a southerner? Aboki, 3million votes will never come out from Kaduna. Except if they won't use card readers at all.

senatordave1:
Those guys are mainly in gyellesu and rarely vote so it doesn't matter.
Kaduna results
Apc 1.5 million
Pdp 600,000

Aboki, this is not true. Total votes casted in Kaduna was 1.6m. Remember it was Jonathan not Atiku. More so, APC got a lot of votes from Southern Kaduna no matter how u guys like to deny it. I mean Southern Kaduna not Kaduna South Senatorial zone. Buhari will most likely win Kaduna; but certainly, not with the large margin of 2015.

Truth is, the stadium was not approved for PDP cos if it's the Kaduna I know, it would have still been filled to the brim. If u know Kaduna well, u won't argue this.

fire4fire:
I have this bread mixer for sale at giveaway price of 95k... In Portharcourt .contact 08032233854 if interested

What's the capacity and problems

I have been in the baking world for over 10yrs. Took a Break. will return here to state my experience.

Only people outside Kaduna think Elrufai is working. She's Sani is on point here. the Govt controls the media and hence propagate fake Govt achievements.

1. How can a reasonable governor look at a people with 11lgas in a State with 23lgas and say they don't matter?
2. Bill Gates gave him money to roll back malaria. he dug gutters everywhere in Kaduna town and abandoned them. now they are breeding grounds for mosquitoes.
3. Every year, Kaduna State indigent students used to be entitled to 15k for science students and 9k for arts. Since Elrufai came, he stopped it claiming he wants to improve it.
4. Apart from the patching of roads, no single road has been started and completed in Kaduna for the past 3 n half yrs.
5. He sacked over 22000 teachers of Primary schools without having contingent plans on ground. months after their sack was when he employed abt 15000, many of whom have abandoned the job haven stayed for over 6 months without salaries. the primary schools are simply a shadow of themselves.
6. apart from teachers, he sacked thousands in other institutions and agencies and till today, they have not been paid off.
7. He has bastertized the Chiefdoms of Southern Kaduna people, abolishing some and turning others to Emirates.
8. he said the usual annual leave grant given to state workers by previous Govt was a mere privilege and not a right. He thus refused paying them that of 2018
9. and for the first time in history of Kaduna democracy, a Muslim Muslim ticket is being used. this is after he said he will demolish an entire Christian settlement just to whip up sentiments from his fanatical Almajiris.

I can go on and on but even the greatest fool knows that Elrufai is the greatest evil and most divisive element we have in Kaduna today. However, since most northern Muslims are fanatics, many Wil vote him and since again he is using divide and rule tactics in Southern Kaduna, he will get a handful of votes there as well, But God helping us, we will vote him out.

surrogatesng:
I have 43 inch led tv.Power consumption is just 30 watt.It can work with nepa or generator.Also compatible with mtn lumos.Price is 70,000 Naira.Call/Whatsapp 0817 036 8264

What make and model is the TV? plus, I am in Kaduna

Cassie74:
Hmmmm try sunlawphy or acunon in technology section.. Both of them are quite knowledgeable about TV. Cheers

Ok. Thanks.

Hello all. Thanks for dropping by. I want to get a new led tv of at least 42" but dont know much abt TVs. Since i wanna watch my budget, i care less abt a smart tv. What i want is simply the Large screen, great pix quality and low battery consumption.

I also wanna know whether it must be an Lg or Samsung or the likes of Hisense, Skyworth, Haier will do greatly. Lastly, are the Sharp, LG, Polystar TVs on Jumia Express really original products or mere imitations cos some prices of arnd 75-80k appear tempting. Thanks

Biguyman:
You fit buy motor with 1.6M not car

Hmm!! na 400k own me dey find sef

OCTAVO:
MPPT vs PWM charge control, which is better? Thanks.

Google is ur friend. mppt is better

The law of God is always for our benefit. Dont commit adultery but him no hear. See him life now

MrAJQ:
What about the remaining 13 states?
Igabi local government alone is up to five other local government areas mentioned above

That's a complete lie. Igabi and Zangon Kataf have same population. I deal with facts Aboki. Go check.

Caseless:
as much as I don't support Muslim-Muslim ticket, I think el-rufai is out to prove something- to tell you people that preaching hate won't win you electoral favour. He picked bantex, you people abhor him. I think it's better to pick someone he knows you'd hate with a reason(because of her religion). You people hate the president and the governor for no good reason.

This also goes to tell you that a Muslim from the south could contest and win. You remember kajuru under cpc ?

Mind you, it is impossible for Saeed to win Kajuru as LGA chairman. Besides, he did not beat Yakowa. Or do you want to say he was rigged out? Even in Kajuru, Yakowa got 60k votes against Saeed's 6k votes. It may interest you to know that Saeed's ward in Kajuru LGA is a Hausa fulani dominated ward with a voter strength less than 2k votes. ARgue with facts

Caseless:
you can't use a skewed analysis to straighten your self-told lies. You people turn facts on their heads to please yourselves.

What is skewed? i said you should argue with facts. I said it is impossible for a muslim to win LGA election in Chikun, Kajuru, Kachia, Kagarko, Jaba, Sanga, Zangon Kataf, Kaura, Jema'a, and Kauru (10LGAs). Actually, they dont even contest cos they know is a waste of time and resource. Tell me with facts that i am wrong.

It is foolish for anyone to try and compare Kaduna state with Imo or Enugu or Plateau or Kano or Jigawa based on religious divide. Those who refuse to be mischievious know quite well that there has been controversy as to who is majority in Kaduna; is it the Christians or the Muslims? Now you cant contemplate that question in the states i initially listed cos it is clear to the blind, deaf and dumb which religion is majority. Now on Kaduna, it may interest people outside to note that the Hausa-Fulani elites rejected the 2006 population census figures cos they claimed it was skewed to show that Southern Kaduna People (with mainly Christian Population) are more than the Northern Kaduna People (with mainly Muslim Population). Now, during the 2006 population census, i know of many Christian dominated areas that were not even enumerated. The question any reasonable mind will ask is: Can a census be so skewed to the extent that the Southern Kaduna people are shown to be dominant in a state with a "tiny" number of Christians?

Let me quickly point out here that there are few Southern Kaduna people that are muslims and there are also few Hausa Fulani people that are Christians. Let me also point out that there are few Hausa-Fulani muslims living in Southern Kaduna and there are also Southern Kaduna Christians living in the northern part of Kaduna. Let me point out here too that "Southern Kaduna" is not the same as "Kaduna South Senatorial Zone". The former is larger than the latter.

Now, based on senatorial zones, there are 8LGs in the North, 7 in the Center and 8 in the South. Let me also state that the Southern Kaduna people (and consequently, Christians) dominate the 8LGs in the South and 2LGs in the Center making 10LGs that a Christian MUST win LGA or House of Assembly elections. Kaduna South LGA in the center is shared almost 50/50 between the two religions and so is Lere LGA in the North. Soooooo, if anyone tells you of Muslim dominating Kaduna that an unrepentant religious bigot like El rufai will claim they are just 30% in Kaduna, tell such a one he is a joker. The reason it becomes easy for a muslim to easily win Kaduna is cos during the military, the polling units were deliberately skewed to favour the Hausa Fulani people. Sooooo, with more polling units, whether the people come out to vote or not, they have more ballots to thumbprint "on their behalf" than the Southern Kaduna man will have. I will stop here but will do a more detailed analysis or the population of Kaduna based on religious and ethnic divide so i can point out why a MUSLIM-MUSLIM ticket is a big deal in a place like Kaduna. Argue with facts.

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officialfestus:
solar gurus in the house please how many solar watts will be enough to fully a 400ah battery within a day or two
cc.ceejay80s

with 600watts, u get 50amps per hour. So theoretically, ur battery will move from 0-100 in 8hrs. practically though, it will take longer.

dontecrosofiso:
What a dam error to PDP in Kaduna State.
Hunkuyi could have been the perfect Man to beat Elrufai, but with this result, I doubt PDP winning Governorship election come 2019.

nahh. Hunkuyi has bad blood. Ashiru is more presentable. He is also popular among apc fans. He stands a better chance of unseating that tyrant.

A former member of the kaduna state house of assembly rt hon isah ashiru kudan has won the pdp gubernatorial primaries. He polled over 1300 votes to beat Mr. Sani sidi (2nd) and senator usman othman hunkuyi (3rd) who both polled over 500 votes each. Mr Ashiru lost to elrufai by a slim margin in the 2014 apc primaries and returned to the pdp just abt 3months ago.