₦airaland Forum

RabbiDoracle:
All through 2022 and part of 2023, I expect Dollar to settle at N410 or so. There will be so much dollar liquidity in the world that people will even be scared of holding it.

After these periods, it's a different kettle of fish.

Some smaller African, Asian and Caribbean countries will end up using USD as their official currencies.

Oga Oracle welcome back.

I really missed you. I thank God you are fine and well. I was afraid for you noting that your last past was at the peak of Covid end of last year.

It seems you went for sabatical


Your students are ready for lectures

OBAGADAFFI:
He really messed up the economy.

Nigerians and blame game.

Then what will you say about the finance minister or the executive or the CBN has the power to single handedly mess up the economy?

Asking for a friend

In my opinion it is a wise decision to save in dollars.

There are people that are putting money away in investments for their children school fees, so that they will not have much pressure when it is time to pay the fees especially university education. Those set of people it is wise for them to hedge against devaluation by converting their funds to dollars.

These set of people are not investing to make money but to preserve their capital.

Chairman,

I think i disagree from the bolded.

Devaluation affects everything in Nigeria. It is because of devaluation that the government wants to sell petrol at above N300, importers buy dollar at N500, they will transfer the difference to the buying public. Prices of almost everything has gone up.

N1000 of today cannot buy what N1000 in december 2019 can buy.

The people bringing in money from outside will have more naira at their disposal.

The only good thing about devalaution is that most Nigerian goods and produce will be cheaper for someone coming with dollars

Lazyyouth4u:
I understand ma. What I’m trying to say is that if you convert all your money and move offshore, you will have to deal with stress to open the account, move money around and then pay fees and charges every time you move money.

It may work to transfer all your money to USD (and keep in a dom account in Naija ) and then only change when you need it but this usually only works for people with small amounts because of CBN regulations.

You see the problem with this devaluation of a thing is that we are in it. There is nothing we can do about it and[b] I can tell you that those that feel it more are people bringing money from abroad. If you are earning and spending mainly Naira, trust me you don’t feel that devaluation is killing you that much until people start talking about it and then you start doing the maths. It happens to all of us.
[/b]
What I think is a smart thing to do is convert some (up to CBN maximum) and keep in a dom account, then find the best investment to put a percentage of the NGN, and then find an offshore mutual fund (and/or other alternative asset classes if you are brave and like to take risks) to invest (not save) for long term offshore uses (like buying cars from US, children US university fees, travel/shopping, relocation, retirement abroad etc). This is not an investment advice o b4 anybody come insult me. Na wetin my lazy brain think o.

Oga,

Do you know Taooma the comedian? Do you know Mr Macroni, Don Jazzy, Iheanocho, Chimamanda Adichie, Akinwumi Adesina, Yemi Alade, Ashishat Oshola, Olu Jacobs ..........

You know all these people i mentioned and you say Nigerians are wicked and corrupt.

YOU ARE WRONG

In a place that has a good legal system Mr Maduka will recover all he lost and the culprits punished. The people that did what he described are not up to 0.05 of the Nigerian population why should you use them to paint the whole Nigerians as bad?

What he described happens everywhere in the world.

ultron12345:
Nigerians

I was just listening to a Forbes interview of Cosmos Maduka, the founder of Coscharis Group. He was asked what his worst day in business was. He said he had two worst days in business, as follows.

The first, he was in Lagos and received a phone call that there was commotion at his branch office in the eastern part of the country. He rushed there and found out that all his staff there had disappeared with money they had collected in advance from customers for supplies. He was sued by 53 traders and had to repay all the stolen money.

The second, a friend needed financial assistance to bring a shipment to Nigeria. He then stood as guarantor for the bank loan collected by this friend. Till today, the shipment never arrived. The friend sold off the shipment on the sea and disappeared with the money, leaving Mr Maduka with N21 billion in debt, producing interest of N300 million monthly. He had to sell of his entire majority shareholding in one the major banks in order to pay it off.

Nigerians. Why are we so wicked and corrupt?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-73HOOlMNc

Biafran4life:
The quarterly results for brewery companies have not been good based on many factors we have discussed here.Even the leader in that sector result for the yr was not fantastic.Guinnes beer section has been bad even before covid 19.This made them call back through products from major distributor to balance credit facilities which showed as receiveables in thr book

I am just saying that most of those factors that led to it's price crash do they still exist?

The major factors that impacted its share price was devaluation, covid 19 restrictions. As we speak those factors have been factored in and seem not to exist anymore.

To me it is not a matter of insider information but information that is available to all, in addition to speculation is also at work here too.

Biafran4life:
SEC or NSE should wake up to its responsibility.If Guinness comes out with anything extra ordinary in its result.Then know it that before this results get to the public it is usually compromised, friends and family sees the results.It just happened with uacn . That is why you see the demand for such share keep going up both in price/quantity.This country is just too corrupt.Guinness will confirm my allegation.We watch

Hello,

I think you are coming to a hasty and wrong conclusion.

Did you look at the second quarter result for Guinness? Did you find out what made it's share price to crash so low?

Firstly at the end of every quarter there is always a rally in share price of most stocks. For Guinness the quarter that just ended is its 3rd quarter.

One of the factors that affected the business was covid 19 lock downs, clubs, parties,weddings, burials were reduced most of last year and especially during Christmas when they were meant to make a lot of turnover/sales.

For last quarter most of the restrictions are easing so it is expected that there would be improved turnover going forward.

A combination of these factors and looking at its reports should give you an indication of where the share price is going.

I am looking for good and experienced transcribers.

If you are interested reply this or send a message.

A short test is involved before engagement

Good and experienced transcribers needed for a large project.

@Rabbidoracle

Where are you? I trust you are doing well.

Your students are missing you.

Wishing you well.

speak2lift:
Good day all, Gurus in the house - Please does anyone have an explanation as to why the share prices of dividend paying companies drop significantly after dividend payment is made. For instance, i have noticed that Zenith bank share price usually drops after they pay dividend for the outgoing year.?

Looking forward to your contributions please.

Zenith paid a dividend of N2.70, the sum of N2.70 was deducted from its share price.

After this, there is not much expected from Zenith, hence most people sell off and wait for an attractive price.

The price appreciation normally occurs when quarterly results come out, as the quarterly results give an indication of the dividend that would be paid the next year.

Hence the cyclical nature.

Then other factors like, interest rates, national economy come into play

emmanuelewumi:
Leave your curiosity and enjoy the cash flow from the business

Ha ha ha

This kind of statement can only come from someone that has looked at their entry prize of averagely N11 and the dividend they will get.

Selling prize no concern you again oga Emma. lol

I feel you sha

I have been wondering where @rabidoracle is.

His silence here is very loud.

I pray he is well and safe wherever he is considering the Covid era.

I am really curious to know why a stock like Zenith that pays clost to N3 as dividend per year struggles to sell at N30.

This is amazing to me.

Maybe oga @emmanuelewumi will know better

Hi Guys,

Please contact me if you are an experienced transcriber.


Thanks

Grupo:
The way you are defending thieves.

It's seems you work in procurement department?

Oga na wa for you oo.

Where did i defend thieves?

Please go and read my post again.

I am saying that calling Nigerians thieves, crooks is wrong.

Nigerians are hardworking people and are excelling in many fields of endeavor.

I am saying that stealing is not local to Nigeria. That all Nigerians should not be labelled as thieves just because one Nigerian stole.

ojesymsym:
Unfit employees different from 'thiefing' employees.

Oga they are the same.

If a thieving employee does not fit into the companies goals and aspirations, the system will weed them out. Well structured companies have systems that do that. It is not only in Nigeria that people are fired from companies they work in.

Mind you not all thieves are bad. The thieving skills can be turned to good.

Go and watch the movie "Catch me if you can" and see how a thief was turned to good. You also see that it is not only in Nigeria we have crooks

ojesymsym:
No need to argue, ask them their experiences with their Nigerian human resources, employees, contractors and customers so you understand the scale of the danger and damage.

Every company all round the world have issues with staffing and employees,. All round the world employees, contractors and customers are hired and fired, it is not a Nigerian thing.

You develop processes that mitigate the negative impact of bad eggs in your company.

Many companies around the world, Google, Facebook, Microsoft have rigorous process for hiring and firing but sometimes people that do not fit into the company goals sneak in. The system still weeds them out.

Bad people are everywhere in the world and those places thrive.

https://www.nairaland.com/6328993/nigerian-api-startup-onepipe-secures


Later some people will say Nigerians are greedy, wicked, thieves, bla bla bla.

See hard working people trying to create a new future

emmanuelewumi:
Different strokes for different folks, some are only concerned about the stability of their dividends, they don't have time for what you typed up their and they are okay

@emmanuelewumi Oga Emma,

I agree with you but i want to share a story.

I am a dividend investor. I used to believe in buying a stock at a good price and leave it for dividends or using the dividend to pay my bills and not bothered about the price fluctuations until a few years ago something happened.

I bought Fidson at an average price of N1.50 it dropped to below N1 and later rose to above N7. That is about 366% returns in capital invested.

So assuming I used N1 million to buy Fidson at N1.50, that is approx 700,000 units of fidson.

At N7 the value of those units would be N4.9 million.

I did not still sell the Fidson and i watched it's price drop to about N3 or less.

Presently Fidson is at N3.40 so that will be N2,300,000, that means it has lost a value of N2.6 million

Fidson has been paying dividend of 15k consistently exceot for the year they paid 25k. I will use 25k for all those years and assuming it is the past 6 years. The dividend in one year is 25k X 700,000 = N175,000, in 6 years it is N1,050,000.

So for holding unto Fidson for all those years and adding the dividend total earned or total value is N3,350,000

That brings loss in value to N1,550,000.

If i used a figure more than the N1 million as capital invested the potential loss in capital or returns would have been much more.

This experience made me change strategy to take advantage of the up and downs of the market but stick strickly with dividend paying stocks.

Same thing happened with Zenith this January is peaked at N24 and dropped to N11 in March, one can say their capital has been preserved as at november this year but an opportunity was also lost in January.

emmanuelewumi:
Zenith Bank will pay a final dividend of N2.50k in the next 6 months or less

Thank you for this.

I was even trying to be conservative.

That means if you buy Zenith bank at N30 you are sitting on 8% returns with dividend. But i doubt the price will get to N30.

That is why i said no matter what happens, to leave the market second week of January during the bull.

Those that buy during the January bull are coming to the party late.

MssRose:
Nice perspective and thanks for that but looking at the obtainable interest rate across all fixed assets being ridiculously low, dont you think that circle will be broken? In the past people switched between tbills and stocks, where they invested the proceeds from stocks into Tbills while waiting for prices to deep.Then again, I feel there is going to be re-pricing of most fundamentally strong stocks because of the devaluation.

I do not think the cycle will be broken, because after the financial year end, results will have to come out and people will take positions to profit.

For example there is a high probability that Zenith will pay a dividend of not less than N2, if you buy tomorrow, you are already sitting on 10% if it is only dividend you are interested in.

So what happens is once it is confirmed that the dividend will be N2 (by insiders, the only way you will know is when the bull starts) there will be a rush to buy the shares to make 10%. By N25 the return is no longer 10% hence appetite will wane and you see drop in price. All this happens in January.

For example does it make sense to buy Zenith at N27 while expecting a dividend of N2, while there are people sitting on 25% already?

As per repricing due to devaluation, the repricing occurred in March when most stocks lost almost 80% of their value.

But from the their 2nd and 3rd quarter results it was obvious that the devaluation and Covid did not have much impact on their business.


Please note: I am not an expert but this is my strategy.

arduino:
You can not time the market

I agree with you 100%.

But what i have written is based on historical trends.

Let us just watch in the coming days what will happen.

One of the reasons i shared what i shared was because during the January Bull many people start buying, but that is when they should be leaving the market.

The best time to buy is in the coming weeks, not in January

MssRose:
Bros, please can you throw more light as to why we shouldn't hold beyond second week of January considering the the fact that most of those stock will be paying dividends around march and some people invested for dividends. I personally had plans of holding mine till towards the wave of uncertainty of 2023 elections to offload. Please explain

Sorry, i just saw this.

The reason is this. You should be looking at total returns to your money.

Most stocks that have December as their financial end of year, their share price rises to the highest value in January, after January it starts dropping.

So using Zenith as an example, the share price is probably going to peak in January, after that it will loose close to 10% of the January high.

In other words, if you bought it in November for N19 and it is selling at N25 in January, by the time you wait to qualify for dividend, it would have lost 10%. Though it is not bad to wait for dividend but your returns will be lower even with dividend.

You can sell in January and come back in May or June because the price will still come down to N19.

I will like to add my own tips on opportunities.

One can target purchasing some stock on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Target should be between now and mid to end of November. If you can get Zenith bank shares at N19 or below get as much as you can and hold till maximium the second week in January.

Do not be tempted to hold beyond the second week of January.

I expect the price to get to N25. That is approximately 25% in returns in less that 3 months.

There are many stocks with such potentials there right now.

The most important thing is timing. and the target price.

Do not exceed second week in January

This is my 2 cents to help

Exactly, that is why it is not good to mix political discussions with investment discussion.

Political discussions you do not get anywhere, nothing is achieved, everyone is entrenched in their own views or opinions.


I am still baffled that people feel comfortable discussing politics in an investment thread, while there are thousands of thread in the Politics section.

They can also create their own threads and attract like minds.

Guys please stop bringing stories from Nairaland Politics Section to Nairaland Investment Section.

Please stay in those threads and have your discussions there.

Everybody has Instagram, Twitter,Facebook, Whatsapp to get update on what is happening in Nigeria.

There is no difference between those burning down governemtn properties in lagos and those doing everything possible to destroy an investment thread in Nairaland.

Please show you are different

ahiboilandgas:
ok i will do that immediately

Thank you sir.

May God/Allah bless you and your hustle.

maishai:
Truly I have to respect the thread......I will resist the urge from hence forth

Thank you so much.

May God/Allah bless you.

Rather we can discuss the financial implications of the what is happening, how it will affect the economy and much more.

maishai:
https://www.nairaland.com/6194454/lekki-tollgate-fire-after-secuity

I can now see the anger of the protesters in lekki............That toll gate is a symbol of all that is wrong

Oga please stop bringing threads from the politics section to threads that are in the Investments section.

Please let us try and at least be better than the politicians

Oga Ahib,

I beg you in the name of any deity you believe in to leave this thread alone and stop bringing political discussions here.

The thread we are in can be found in the investments section of nairaland. There is a political section please i am pleading with you.

I have a lot of respect for you but please let this stop.

This was how Stockmarketnigeria.com crashed.

SMN was the place the best brains in the nigerian stock market congregated to analyse the NSE and have robust discussions until some idiots came and muddled the whole place with political talk. The site is no more.


Please move all your political discussion to the politics section, there are enougth threads there.

Thank you

Hello Data Scientists and aspiring Data Scientists i trust you are all good.

Lets try and keep this thread alive.

@Ejiod greetings to you and thanks for creating this thread.

Thanks also for those that have shared useful information here