₦airaland Forum

RabbiDoracle:
Breaking news:

Inflation in Nigeria accelerates to 21.09% in October 2022.

So what will CBN do? Raise rates to 21%

Nah. Siddon dey look time has reached.

So what happens if they are not able to raise interest rates?

ojesymsym:
So easy to say when you analyze it this way. But you forget the hypothetical pure water in question (as used in this context) is not something we produce or can produce enough locally.
Instead think of it like this.

1. Purewater is not produced in Nigeria, so we have no control over its cost. (dollar, ditto for imported products)

2. Purewater is needed to tend to the sick, drink as normal source of water and to water flowers.

3. The number of purewater entering the country begins to reduce or the demands begins to increase so that we cannot catch up, so what do you do?
You begin to pririotize because the factors of producing this pure water used in this scenario are out of your control. So, you remove those who use the pure water to water flowers away from those you will supply essential pure water to and try to focus on the sick and for normal use.
But the people who still want to use it for watering their flowers do not want to back down. They keep searching for that scarce pure water. Then a blackmarket opens to fill up that demand. So, rather than the black market find other ways to get pure water, they try so hard to deprive the sick people and normal water usage of pure water to satisfy the needs of those want to use that pure water to keep watering their flowers.

That is where I think we are today.

You are wrong in your analysis, QuinModah: analysis is right.

You kill black markets by making sure there is excess supply of a resource or product. You do not kill black markets by chasing after people that supply that resource.

In your analysis, the people that need water for flowers are valid users of water, that is an industry on its own, you do not go and stifle their business because you want to prioritise other industries.

The solution is to make sure there is adequate supply and all industries get normal supply of water.

Take for example when there is fuel scarcity in nigeria. Most times it is caused because the cost of suppling fuel is no longer profitable but the government wants to control the price.

What the fuel marketers that bought fuel at 180 and being told to sell at 10 naira loss do is to stop selling and find people that will buy it at higher price so they can make a profit. If they do not make profit their business will collapse.

Olaide1295:
Labour is cheap in Nigeria but not readily available as they are not trained. I'll explain:

Dangote needed about 30k workers to build his refinery, he had to import 11.5k foreigners (mostly indians) and pay them with USD. We have many unemployed people in Nigeria but they are useless since they don't have basic vocational training.
Blue collar workers may be laborers but they need some 6 months -1 year training. The Pakistanis and Indians are the ones in construction all over the world and they are remitting money back to their home countries.
Same thing with the Lekki deep port, the transatlantic gas pipe project, railway projects, BUA refinery (which BTW is currently importing foreign welders) and tens of smaller projects around the country.
We are not the Saudis or Arabs who have enormous wealth and can decide to only do white collar supervisory work. We need to be able to grind and do the hardwork ourselves like the Chinese did.

Oga I disagree with you that nigerians are not trained.

The asians provide a cheaper alternative to labour.

The chinese are ready to live 12 in a container and on site. They will not disturb you for transport money or other associated expenses. If they mess up, they are sent home to their country unlike a nigerian that will sue you in his own country.

Go to the middle east and everywhere in the world, the pakistanis, indians, chinese dominate those type of work.

Look at the story coming out concerning the world cup in Qatar.

The highest number of immigrants to Canada are indians and Chinese.

It is not a nigerian thing.

NIgerians are hardworking and industrious

Neverlosemoney:
In the short run the bolded is true but in the long run it is our ability to “earn” that matters most and determines the strength of our currency.

If we decides to cut down import (expense); there is only so little we can cut, very soon will start cutting ourselves. Relying on one source of income (crude oil) is what got Nigeria into this mess.

As an individual and as a Nation we should constantly keep on improving our ability to generate more income. We should not rely majorly on one source of income for our survival or else; sooner or later we will start cutting down the things we really need because we can’t afford it.

That ability to earn is when Nigerian Universities become world class and people from other countries use dollars to buy naira to pay for nigerian universities school fees and other goods and services produced in nigeria

RabbiDoracle:
The current system :

If a Nigerian wants to buy a shoe in China, he changes its naira to dollar first and then back to yuan to buy the shoe. Naira, dollar then yuan. 3-ways system..

If a European wants to buy a shoe in China, he changes his euro to yuan and pays for the shoe. Euro to yuan. 2-way system.

I believe the global payment system should be a 2 way system where banks in one nation will interact with the other banks there without intermediary.

For this 2-way system to be achieved, you don't need a dollar/euro or whatever currency to buy a good in China. You should source dollar if you are buying goods in the US. The same way Americans will source naira if they are buying goods in Nigeria. It is then that you will see that these dollar demands may not be for US/EU goods but could be Chinese goods or Turkish goods.

In my opinion, if a 2 way system is to be achieved, it means that global central banks will keep lots of other nations currencies to effect seamless transactions. And I think that is where digital currencies come in for ease of posting into accounts.

Because why would I want to buy something from Benin Republic that is at my backyard and I will have to make a transaction to United States of America that is thousands of miles away from me, then I get the currency and subsequently cross my backyard to go and buy the goods in Benin Republic. It is like wanting to go to Togo and I fly Air France that takes me to Paris first and later bring me back to Togo.

I want to believe it will happen in this decade.

But this sounds more like wishfull thinking than practical.

I believe the US has foreseen this and is making sure it does not happen.

I believe this is not new knowledge

RabbiDoracle:
When very high inflation comes, you don't hold money (no matter the form). You hold real assets or stocks of companies that sell real assets.

As regards naira - dollar events we see, and in my opinion, we are entering the phase of full digital naira (e-naira). In this phase, there could be too few notes available for circulation.

If there are less naira notes, those with dollar (hoarders, illicit businesses) would want to exchange their paper dollar with new naira notes and they will see that notes are no longer available. Naira notes will now be very scarce. So you either go to to the bank to open a naira account (if they don't have one) or you get stuck with the paper dollars. When hoarders (not genuine businesses holding forex in their books) are tired and need e-naira to use for day to day transactions, they will approach traditional BDCs or banks to change their paper dollars. These institutions will only issue them digital naira. Nothing more!

What will cause exchange rate to collapse faster?

From above, as more hoarders see that they can't transact business using local naira notes, they will be force en masse to go into BDCs or banks to change their useless paper to e-naira. This will cause a severe crash of the $-NGN rates. This will bring convergence of official and parallel market rates.

What if I mask my sales of paper dollar via peer to peer transfer as just a harmless transfer to a friend/family while selling the paper dollar higher to them?

Except your friend/family intends to travel abroad where they still use paper dollar, in most cases everyone will reject the paper dollars. Many countries have started their digital currencies transactions. Starting from 2023 lots of other countries will come onboard to use e-currencies.

That way speculative attacks on any nation's currencies will be eliminated or reduced.

And when these paper dollars reach banks, they will exchange at CBN official rates. Traditional BDCs will reject dollars because they know the game is up since exchange rate convergence is coming . Those who buy higher and can't sell will have to take a loss as they grudgingly walk to the bank.

Till tomorrow you still need naira (and not dollars) to buy tomatoes in nigerian market.

What about the importers that need dollars for import?

How will they source dollars.

I believe that it is our importation that is driving the fall of the Naira.

Paying for schools fees abroad is also importation as Education is being imported.

Lots of nigerians are going to canada, uk and US schools more than ever before

RabbiDoracle:
The same inability to withdraw forex occurred in 2009 - 2010, 2015 - 2016, 2021 - 2022. So it is a cycle that will pass and USD/NGN will revert to 415 if not lower.

This too shall pass.

In 2015 to 2016

It went from 180 to 360 it never recovered.

I doubt there will be recovery for 2021 to 2022. Also we all know the next government will devalue the naira

BabsO2:
I would not have taken it seriously if not for CBN being the one raising the issue. The issue was raised as stated in the story, but how it could materialize was not included in the story.

I strongly believe that the banks are aware and are investing in Fintechs too and being innovative. In my opinion the only bank that will go down is the one that does not innovate

Redoil:
minus MTN the rest of the stock mention are usually dependent on foreign currencies to import raw materials and machinery

MTN also imports its telecomunications equipment from foreign manufactures.

I think it is companies that source raw materials from farms are protected. The breweries use starch from cassava to make alcohol.....

Guinness dividend just landed.

RabbiDoracle:
Some people feel hate for other people's analysis. That tell you what goes on in their heads.

Imagine staying rent free in other people's heads.

You are very strong oo and have a tough skin. Some people would have stopped contributing to this forum if they were the ones that are usually heckled the way you are here.

The irony is that they act as if they are jealous that you see what they are not able to see.

But to me it is not a competition, no one knows it all, everyone is good in their own way.

Agbalowomeri:
We will join you at 12

That was how some people were waiting for Zenith at N5 for the past 3 years.

Bro you can pass your message without making snide remarks at other people now.

We are all here to share information and learn, no need for insults

Ginalex:
their nonsense response was that they had not received my mandate form from the bank after I had submitted online. I still went ahead to submit physical copy at the bank. Now they've stopped responding

We are in same shoes.

I have been receiving Zenith dividend all these years but did not receive the recent interim dividend.

Called them they said the e-mandate form has changed that i should fill the new one. Did everything they requested. They stopped picking my calls and responding to emails.

They did not send notification to submit updated e-mandate form and preferred not to pay people their entitlements. Is that not robbery?

No one to caution them.

Treasury bills is now 12%, why put money in risky assets like stocks.

Interesting days ahead. But I have a strong feeling that third quarter results will be very good and give a boost to the market

RabbiDoracle:
Yes, there can be simulations but I doubt if the scale of the damage and some outlier responses can easily be simulated. Some can get out of hand which they may not have foreseen.

Technical analysis is predicting that there needs to be one last major rise (parabolic rise) that stocks need to make to end the supercycle. And if this move (central banks starting QE) will cause that huge rise in equities, then so be it. That is why I continued to be bullish all EMs.

We will see.

Okay, I understand you.

The most important thing is to take advantage of what is about to happen

RabbiDoracle:
They are aware but there is no protective measure.

Let's use this as example.

Early this September, EU energy companies said that they would need 1.5trillion euros to post to banks as margin to enable them not get liquidated as energy prices continue to spike higher. Will ECB print 1.5 trillion euros? You are aware of this, but what will you do? It is just to sit and wait for the collapse to occur. Or you find a way of beating down the prices of energy either by trick or by manipulation. Just beat it down.

There is commotion there. All they need ius just a diplomatic solution. But no side wants to be seen as weak. Both sides need a face saving means to get out of this quagmire they are in.

Now look at the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Fed and ECB. They have said that inflation is getting out of hand and that their mandate is price stability and reduction of inflation. That they will continue to hike rates till they achieve price stability and reduce inflation. But it is now getting out of hand and leading to debt meltdown. And it has forced the BoJ last week or so to start emergency bond buying. This is QE.

Not long ago today, BoE threw in the towel. They know what they are seeing. Financial institutions around the world will be telling them that there is a huge strain on liquidity and this will cause everything to stop. Companies with loans at 0.3% as at last year will be seeing their rates at say 4% as at this year. How will they function? They have been used to low rates for a long period of time and raising rates will upset the system. And finally it did.

Next is ECB, then Fed. The longer it takes, the greater the blowback.

I agree with you but what I am saying is, do you not think a simulation has been done that foresaw all these and counter meausures has been put in place for the various scenerios that will play out.

I also think the West is always 5 years ahead of the world , that they simulate every situation ahead

RabbiDoracle:
With UK starting printing to buy back the bonds that are being mauled, this will cause serious depreciation in GBPUSD pair.

EU bond would start to get mauled as investors sell them off forcing ECB to start buying back their bonds ( QE).

Lastly, US will be forced to follow suit with QE because there are tons of leveraged loans in US financial system that can crush global financial system.

Great British Peso falls, EU ruble falls and United States Drachma follows.

This sends all of the Western world (developed markets) into a severe inflationary depression if China continues to lockdown and don't open up.

Solution:

Engage China, Russia and the Middle Eastern rich countries and plead with them for mercy.

Because without the rest of the world buying your bonds, you can't function. Without the rest of the world investing in your debts, these DMs can't have funds to run their economies. It is just a stack of debts.

This financial problem is x100 bigger than that Ukraine war. It can't be imagined.

But Oracle, this doomsday scenerio you are painting are you saying that the Americans or Europe are not aware?


I believe they have access to more information and know what they are doing. They will put in measures to protect themselves.

Na 3rd world countries will suffer more for it.

OBAGADAFFI:
He gets most part of the blame.

His capital control on FX started this problem.
He keeps increasing Banks CRR and dashing the money to government.

He messed up the system.

Oga you are funny oo.


The executive takes 90% of the responsibility.

You are not looking at the Finance Minister, it is CBN governor.

What is the economic policy of this government? Do you know?

You think an economy will thrive in a situation where your major source of income is being stolen, the life of the citizens are not safe, the middle class is leaving the country in droves.

When Kemi Adeosun was giving the economy injection how far? Did anything change?

The CBN governor is powerless when you have an inept executive.

Why do you think Soludo was a good CBN governor? Because of the finance minister and the president then.

Do you know the name of the CBN governor before Soludo?

It is the president and executive that determines the success of any CBN governor

pluto09:
I don't think the CBN governor is actually the problem and I can't blame him.
The fiscal and monetary authorities are suppose to work together but when you have an ineffective and inefficient fiscal authority superintendent by an aloof president, what can the CBN do?
We have a forex crisis which normally should not happen when oil price is high. We are short of dollars as our main source of foreign earnings (crude oil). has been battered. I just hope and pray that oil price doesn't crash before this present government pack her bag and go away next year may.

You have said it all.

The CBN governor does not control security, our major source of income is crude and it is being stolen when crude is selling at an all time high.

Many nigerians are Japaing and most are going through school route to Canada, US, UK, on average one person pulls not less than 30 thousand US dollars that is why the naira is loosing value.

The CBN cannot do anything to stop this demand for forex but the executive arm of government can stop it by creating millions of jobs, providing security for its citizens, stopping crude oil theft.


People should stop blaming CBN governor

pluto09:
MPR increased to 15.5%
This is no good news for NSE.

Serious Wahala for the NSE.

Only the brave hearted will survive

Some MMF are now at 11% i guess that is why most investors are selling their stocks and moving to more stable and guaranteed returns assets

RabbiDoracle:
You don't need to look at just Nigeria naira in isolation. This is a global issue. Nigeria, Europe, New Zealand, South Korea, Turkey, China, Norway, UK, South Africa, Japan and many more countries are all having currency depreciation as a result of this ongoing events. These are emerging markets and developed worlds altogether.

Dollar can't just continue to rise against all currencies. At a point, it will stop.

And that is why when dollar falls, it will be catastrophic.

I agree with you. But from the way i see it. The same charts you are using, the US and Europe aslo has it.

I want to believe they have projected into the future and seen what will happen and have put into place mitigation measures.

yMcy56:
One thing I believe is that Oga Oracle's predictions will come true, always comes true.
When is another thing, he doesn't control time or countries........but we'll be expecting it.
We'll be on the lookout.....It'll be an interesting time.
Someone may call me a dogmatic follower or whatever name una like, e no concern me.
Sha go and be looking for money to be a partaker when time comes or if in market, be hopeful.

I also believe he is right in his predictions. That is why i ask for updates. Because sometimes there will need to be some adjustments

RabbiDoracle:
Looking for me?

There is a geopolitical play going on.

US and Fed keeps tightening rates so dollar gets sought after. (in the name of rate hike)

Russia keeps tightening oil and gas so O & G gets sought after. (in the name of war and reversing sanctions)

China keeps tightening supplies of goods and services so lots of goods get sought after. (in the name of Zero covid)

Now we are all watching who blinks first. In my opinion, it will be the Fed and the dollar index will make a sharp nosedive.

Watch these events as they are late stage events in a super bubble scenario:

- Dollar index crashes precipitously against all other currencies
- All commodities rise very hard
- Gold and Silver rise
- Equities rise sharply and very hard.
- Euphoria, mania and reckless betting in equities
- your barber tells you to start buying stocks

These events will be global. And it is usually shortlived.

I'm very bullish on NSE and all other EMs invested in. I'm bullish commodities and oil and gas.

Try and buy food and keep at home. Early 2023 food spike will make 2022 food prices look like child's play.

But Oga Oracle,

We have finished eating the rice and other things you told us to buy and keep since January

I am not doubting your analysis, but i also think the US government are also doing their own analysis and would not want to have turmoil in their economy considering that by next year they would enter another election cycle.

But also you said that by now naija will be awash with dollars, but the opposite is the case, dollar is no where to be found.

I know that opportunity is plenty in NSE sha and there are cycles to up and down movements.

Make we dey look

Where is oga Oracle, the low keeps going lower.

Meanwhile Oracle said that the dollar will be chasing the naira this year that everywhere will be awash with dollars, what happened?

Jochez15:
This is a sound strategy!

It is the best strategy.

That is how to make money no matter the economy

yok:
STOCK SIGNAL FOR 31 AUG 2022
Allshare Index is still down and may go down more in the immediate timeframe.

STOCKS WITH STABLE PRICES: XXXX, , FBNH, DANGSUG , XXXXXXX

STOCKS IN DOWNTREND : ACCESS, UBA, XXXXX, XXXXXX, DANGCEM, BUACEM, PRESCO, CUSTODIAN

STOCKS LIKELY TO RETRACE : ZENITH, XXXXXX, XXXXX, BUAFOOD, FIDELITY

WAIT: OKOMU, GUINNESS, XXXX(trying to find stability), FCMB

The Global market is showing lot of volatility, market currently negative, due to solution to the inflationary trend not yet in sight.

Have a nice day.

Please why are you coming here to sell information that is freely given here?

People share information for free here, you come here and use the same information and put it up for sale.

That is not fair

[quote author=RayRay06677 post=116218189][/quote]Wow 19%

That is high ooo.

emmasoft:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36693_ZENITH_BANK_PLC%20ZENITH_BANK_PLC_%20_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_AN.pdf

No growth in comprehensive income and assets.

But interim dividend of 30k. The usual trend.

But will it be same for final dividend?

bennyflipy:
What would you advise

I cannot advise you.. .

Everything depends on your investment plan.

But there is enough information here to help you.

You can read Oga Emma, Onegodlyguy, oracle and many others comments to guide you.

Someone shared here a few days ago, that he earns about 100k monthly from his investments. That is a goal and plan. He plans to increase the monthly income gradually. Note that the earnings are not from price appreciation but rather dividends and coupons.

Willie2015:
Price Appreciation is as a result of...
Q2 Interim Dividend announcement and qualification dates...
Q3 result may help if it fall within the Qualification period...
But Q3 results on its own dont move mkt...
cos of the absence of dividend expectation and hunters...
In fact, Nov is historically bearish...
While Xmas rally comes as a gift in December...

I do not claim to be an expect, I am just sharing my observations.

The bear of November comes after the peak of September/ October.

In a way we are saying the same thing.