₦airaland Forum

RabbiDoracle:
There is a difference buying yuan bonds and then storing Nigerian reserves in yuan bonds(automatically in Renminbi).

But in this case, it is about paying for goods and services in local /regional currencies as against buying dollars to buy the goods.

India and Malaysia are using their currencies to exchange goods and services.

Sri Lanka will be buying oil using their national currency from Russia.

Totalenergies bought 65,000 tons on LNG from UAE using yuan. Never done before.

This isn't about buying Chinese bonds. This is about exchange of goods and services in currency that is not USD.

If you listened to Marco Rubio (US senator) yesterday, you will understand what he is saying about trading outside USD as he complained about Brazil wanting to trade with China in yuan and Brazil real.

And this move is the currency war where surpluses are no longer rolled into US and EU treasuries thereby creating the losses seen in western banks and other non-financial institutions.

Well you have a very valid point.

One of the ways the US used to make countries to comply is to change the government. How many governments can they change now.

But i believe the US know what they are doing, they also have their simulations and know when the threshold will be reached and take countermeasures.

But in all this, what is an investor in Nigeria to do?

With Nigeria volume of debt and all, will this favour Nigeria?

RabbiDoracle:
Hello Dum20,

Your post on 14th November 2022.

Now many countries in Asia are exchanging their regional currencies amongst themselves.

No longer wishful thinking.

But oga Oracle, this is not new na?

Even the current Nigerian Government went to China and placed some of our foreign reserves in China currency na?

Agbalowomeri:
I am placing a wager for both ZENITH & GTCo to move above 30 by July. Anyone?

Oga, you are on your own oo.

Once I buy them at 17/18. I am not bothered at what their year high becomes.

I look at previous trend.

Previous trend shows that NSE start experiencing real bull a year after elections, that mean any big bull will come from mid 2024.

No be me talk am oo, but data from 2003 till 2019

yMcy56:
50% ke!!
Are you saying it will then reverse to 13 ex-dividend?
Not possible sir. No be war nah.

Sorry ma, 50% may be too high but not impossible.

The point is that the share price will lose more than 10.44% in the long run.

The best time to buy is not now but september period.

Agbalowomeri:
50% kilode Lol

No be me talk am.

Check last 10 years data.

Year high is always Pre-January/January. Year lows are always close to qualification date and around September.

I said close to ooo, not 50%

yMcy56:
Chai!! Head just dey calculate left right and center. Twale sir.

With 10% WHT and a dividend of 2.9 @N25, the yield will still give us 10.44%.



Alright sir.
Those that picked @18+ and didn't sell till now must be smiling really good.

Correct, many sophisticated investors will not put there head into the 10.44% because based on historical data after qualification date it looses close to 50 % of market value and recovers towards December.

yMcy56:
I believed it will still go up small too.
Looking forward to a day/time when ZENITH and GTCO will go and settle above 30.

....but @25, the dividend yield is above 12% nah.......or I'm I missing something??

OK. You're considering only the final dividend. What about the interim? You're supposed to use both I think.

did you include 10% withholding tax?

BabsO2:
To those looking for stock recommendations, different brokers issue theirs. IBTC Stockbrokers have three banks on their buy recommendation list with a bullish target price appreciation of 50%. Due diligence is required to follow these brokers as they could be unduly bullish or bearish sometimes. Now them no put Transcorp. Perhaps it's when the price reaches N2 or 3 that they will be bullish to recommend it

This has been their forecast for the past one year.

Be careful before you jump in based on their recommendation.

In my opinion, most stocks have hit their year high in January. Dividend declaration will not do much.

Na till November /December you will see good action. My opinion based on more than 10 years data.

Heishere:
Basically, it can be inferred from your post that the root cause is the rate hikes by the FED. Oracle predicted this could happen as a result of the hikes so he is correct. If the bank had a good risk management control, they would have implemented controls before now to minimize the impact. I learnt they didn't have a CRO for months.

Thank you for this.

The koko is that it does not matter the bank or institution that went down. What is important that through technical analysis and simulations it became obvious these things are about to happen.

My job as an investor is to look for opportunities in this situation and also what to do to protect my assets.

One thing i know is that the raw information we get here on this thread and the Treasury Bills thread is more valuable than any information you can get in Bloomberg and all these other news media. Their own is to report on what has happened, by then it is already late to protect your investments.

The raw information shared here is also tailored to the Nigerian Market and is from real life experiences of people, not text book theory.

RabbiDoracle:
Another thought :

Since most Developed world banks and Central banks (US, EU, Australia, Japan) are grappling with huge losses as a result severe bond wipeout, it will be natural for the western government to carefully orchestrate a severe global economic crash that will cause global funds to flow out from stocks, real estate funds, gold, silver, crude oil ( and other commodities) , bitcoin and whatever asset classes and force these monies to go into treasuries and bonds. That way banks/central banks with huge losses as a result of decline in bond prices will now see spectacular bids on these bond portfolios and these banks will be healthy again. But that will be at the expense of people/investors who get wiped out in the instruments highlighted above with staggering losses therein.

It is like forcing a huge flock of sheep through a narrow-gated field.

Thank you for this thought.

So looking at Nigerian assets, what will be the impact on Nigerian Bonds, NSE and other assets?

Should we be cash heavy or siddon look?

ositadima1:
I shared the article because I believe in people doing their thinking for themselves. I guess you prefer to be spoonfed with unsubstantiated beliefs.

If you read the article you would have understood why the bank collapsed and not because the western world is imploding, but then you find conspiracy theories more appealing, ok.

Here again some recap in my own words:

1. Bank was over-exposed on cheap bonds when they should have been more deversified.

2. Because of d post COVID wahala USA increased interest rates to stabilize their economy.

3. Suddenly the bank's investments became less valuable or bad because newer bonds offer better yields.

4. The client and investors got to know about it and started withdrawing en mass.

5. Bank can't cope with multiple withdrawal and had to sell their now bad investments that resulted into big losses.

You want insult everyone abi?

You are actually the one that want to be spoonfed with unsubstianted beliefs when you use New York Times as guide for making financial decisions.

Over a year ago, Oracle said something like this is about to happen with the tools he had. He shared the information here so that other TA and FA guys can chip, so that everyone here can rub minds together.

And it is New York Times and Chatgp you are using.

This forum is a place for knowledge sharing. Bring your own, let others bring their own. Not be insulting people.

It is clear you are a novice, it is either you learn from the elders or continue to wallow in ignorance.

We are all free to make our decisions.

[quote author=ositadima1 post=121673528]Why does it feel like someone is trying harder to fit d meaning behind negative events to their beliefs?

Bro, why do you always attack Oracle?
Why not pass your message without trying to discredit him?

He predicted what is happening now more than a year ago. He told us the tools he used to project into the future, no prophesy or guess work.

And in trying to disprove him you are sharing an article from New York Times.

It is only an Amateur that will depend on New York Times, Financial Times Bloomberg to know what is going on in a market.

People like oga Emma has his tools he can use to read the market before things happen.

The media houses only report when it has happened.

comatekeke:
The Minister of Interior, Abuja has revoked the Work Permit, Visa and Residence Permit of the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Seplat Energy Plc, Mr. Roger Brown, over allegations of racism, favouring of foreign workers and discrimination against Nigerian employees levelled against him by employees of the company.

Seplat always involved in controversies everytime

Shebi it was Seplat that bought Mobil assets.

A transaction approved by Buhari and later reversed.

It seems the Mobil matter has not been settled, this is a continuation of the matter in my opinion

Is he the only foreing MD favouring foreign workers?

aieromon:
Q2 - Q3 2024

Thank you.

But this is FGN Savings Bond.

I am interested in the FGN Bond and Sukuk Bond.

The FGN Bond has tenures of 10 years or more

Hi All,

How do we know when the next FGN Bond sales will take place.

Also when will the next Sukuk Bond sale take place.

Thank you

GANDALF1:
What will it profit a man to gain 10% and be stuck for the next 5 months (or lose 30%)?

You are on point bro.

The best time to buy is 2 months ago(Nov/Dec) before result announcement. The dividend has already been factored into the price.

aremso:
so until u japa that u can make it shey some buy fidelity at 2.88 sold at 6.05 if such a person invest japa money of let say 5m shy the money never turned over 10m any way think before u japa

My brother please do the one you like.

No more politics talk abeg.

Madam Mercy no vex, continue with your input

Obi, Atiku, Tinubu will still close business deals.

We the common man, should not scatter our basket of knowledge because of them.

To survive in Nigeria, you should have a japa plan, think of only what benefits you and your family.

Nothing to die for.

So please guys, enough of the political talk.

essentialone:
Una dey over elongate as well as derail this thread and it's not cool at all. We all are either learners, teachers, or both, on the stock market. Imagine, coming back to the thread and seeing so many comments. You go through them to learn about the stock market, just to see that it is either about bond or about bondage. You rush and skip through all of that and end up even skipping through an important stock information. As I always say, the stock market is largely emotional and reactionary. Despite all your bedsheets, and fv and technical analysis or candlesticks, investors need the latest info to make some unforeseen decisions.


Make una teach me how to report to Admins and Mods ooo

If you truly want to learn, then you will know that the thread is not being derailed by the discussion of bonds. You cannot study the stock market alone. And as he pointed out, you need to know when to sell your stocks to realise gains and where next to put the gains you got. Both bonds and stocks go together.

If you really want to learn

emmasoft:
Investment one stockbrokers recommended

Get in touch for every other thing as per stocks.
We can go step by step together on how to navigate the market as an investor.

Use the number on my signature to get in touch.

Bro you are no longer with FSDH?

RabbiDoracle:
I don't look at only TA of Nigerian stocks. I look at the TA of many global stock indexes and bonds. Once I see divergences on those global ones, I try to update and warn to see if others see same.

Like months ago, there wasn't any negative divergences in those indexes and so I assumed NSE will go on well. However, since December 2022, I have started seeing some signs of their indexes going very fast to All time high and that could create some issues for their markets. The speed of rise is concerning to me especially when you know that there are negative macro factors affecting those markets.

Since global markets are interconnected, where there are issues in the big global players, these could create tremors in smaller markets. These tremors are called contagion. And that is why I show my findings to other TA guys here for all to rub minds together and see what could go wrong/right.

I don't just buy stocks, I also investigate what could go wrong with my position that will wipe out my capital. That is how I do my risk analysis. And remember, market will not go on a straight line.

I am 80% in NSE currently but watching what could go wrong around the world.

Okuko na pa nri, anyaufio akona e--ibo adage.

Hmmm this change of tone. Some people have been waiting to see GTB at 50 as you said last year.

Well your approach is not bad. You are open and say what you see.

I am not a TA guy oo, i just look at trends. I noticed that in the past 5 election circles in Nigeria, there is always a strong bull in the year preceding presidential elections. The highs of that preceding year are never attained again until a year after the elections.

With what has happened so far, the NSE is following that trend. Most stocks have had their year highs in January.

What that means is we MIGHT not see the highs of January 2023 again until next year.

I am not an expert ooo, I am just sharing my little experience

debeey87:
Morgan has such feature on itrade

Tnanks.

Do i need to be a customer of morgan before i can access it?

Hello Guys,

Who can share the link where one can see live market. Where you see Bid, Offers, Trades, Market activity?

lancee:
owo dee for Agba money growing like grass ...I was waiting for gtb @ 12

I hope you bought enough food and drinks that will last you a lifetime as you wait?

From the look of things the mini Bull is over.

It will be a downward trend till the middle of the year.

I do not see full year results moving the prices significantly. I believe the results has been factored into the prices already.

RabbiDoracle:
Then here comes BURUNDI

What is Burundi oooo?

Time to run out?

Agbalowomeri:
Don't worry
A repeat of January 2018 is loading. Don't sell too early. GTCo, Zenith, Stanbic are all headed above 40

I think the repeat of January 2018 bull has occured in January 2022.

2018 was a year before 2019 elections. There was no significant bull in 2019.

I think a repeat might occur early 2023.

RabbiDoracle:
Insignificant impact.

It is only when there are other African countries that have similar issues that it will create a run in the bond markets.



Remember this? Wait for the global one. There will be increased bond volatility and that is the one we should fear and not that of Ghana.

Hmm,

Interesting, so are you saying one should not invest in bonds too? What is the impact on the stocks? You mean global stocks or other region stocks?

RabbiDoracle:
Ghanaian central bank is making local bond investors to take losses on their interest payments while saving them from taking losses on their principal. Hence the change to the new bond.

Will investors believe the new story on future interest payments since they have reneged on their own old contract?

So much for safe haven investment called bonds.

Ghanaian banks hold 32% of govt bonds and they will be taking most of the losses on interest payments. This could lead to serious decline in the stocks of the banks within Ghana. They are in for a long thing.

I believe some Nigerian banks have operations in Ghana, will they take the hit? What will be the impact on the Parent Nigerian company?

RabbiDoracle:
The part in bold happened some minutes ago.


Dow gains 300 points as optimism grows after Powell signals smaller rate hikes ahead

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html?__source=androidappshare


Boys, food is ready!!!

Where ooo, is it NSE or NYSE?

Toluway:
In as much as you're a respected experienced player in the field, i want to say I'm familiar with your conceited and prejudiced mentality. You might wish to rebrand and respond positively to people's post; even if you don't know them before. The sky is big enough for the birds to fly. Note that this forum is not your empire. I was even joking with someone whom i know is well civilised. Not an ancient regime. Check historical records, i was here before you. And no regrets.

See so much bitterness in you. In my opinion i think this is an over reaction. He asked you a simple question you can give a simple answer to.

Like you said, the sky is big enough for everyone.

The question he asked was to stimulate a discussion not to throw insults.

We are all here to learn and rub minds together, no one knows it all

skydiver01:
Excellent decision to not waste time on back and forths . Experienced investors have the liberty of ignoring incorrect information being posted but there is also the risk of misleading newbies.

You are right in pointing it out.

The guy wanted to sell his market by disrediting other people.