₦airaland Forum

onegentleguy:
Again this journey will be swift.
It'd be like a train ride with Mr GSK.

The coys CMP still showing an over 81% discount (MoS peg from IV) even after detaching a 2.5x premium to current surrounding risk level in view of potential REWARD. (Here comes peace of mind)
...and that, using a very conservative valuation model.
Using the coys last financial print as yardstick, GSK should have NO business trading for N22.71.

In the stock market world, a cheap/undervalued asset isn't just one whose price is low in terms of VALUE or high in REWARD... but broadly one whose price is lower in terms of RISK and even higher in PEACE OF MIND.
...a wining investor must know how and when to relate in between !!
~Sinclair
This Nugget is KEY !!

"Between uncertainties, difficulties and failures is the many 'gift packs' from the stock market.
...and inside those 'gifts' are smaller 'packs' with obstacles but which are sealed with CRAFT.
Yet down inside, are even more 'packs' of OPPORTUNITY."
~Sinclair

"The market will often present a discerning investor with 'souvenirs'.
Sometimes, they are even 'bigger gifts' for lesser monies.
The problem however is with knowing when to indulge it on an exchange.
...for therein lies your pathway to success!"
~Sinclair

GSK closed their manufacturing plants in NIgeria and outsourced their manufacturing to Fidson.

I am wondering if that makes economic sense.

Maybe it does, as Fidson will now bear all the risks associated with manufacturing in Nigeria (High cost of diesel, fuel scarcity...)

Interesting times ahead

Yet Zenith stock price fell from[b] N32. 65 in February 2018 to N10.70 in March 2020. [/b]This was a 67% uninterrupted decline in price even when earnings were stellar and dividends increased.

At inflection point, irrespective of fundamentals things change. [/quote]But Zenith traded at N27 in 2020 but dropped to N10.70 the price of crude oil went down to zero or below cost price. There was price recovery but the price went down again due to devauation.

Slimdove:
What are you looking for here, when you don't listen to professionsals advise.you are not supposed to be on this forum.
This is how you people talk down on some of our Ogas here;and send them to the sideline.

Oracle was the one that told us in this forum that the[b] market will move beyond 50k basis point[/b];and today it has come to pass.

Please what should the interpretation be when the market goes beyond 50k basis points?

RabbiDoracle:
Not a case of half full nor empty.

Percentage increase or decrease is different from when you do devaluation.

Number can increase over 100% but currency cannot devalue 100%.

99% devaluation of the $-naira (assume 2016 exchange rate of N360 as reference) will bring the value to N36,000 per dollar. We are not in Iran o.

I still do not understand the part in bold.

Using 2015 as reference 1$ was equal to N200. Now it is N590.

N590 - N200 = N390, by how much is this devaluation?

I interpret it as Naira losing more than 100% of it 2015 value.

ositadima1:
Letting A be the starting rate and B the final rate.

The percentage change of the Quote Currency relative to the Base Currency is

Percent Change = ((A − B) / B) × 100

The percentage change of the Base Currency relative to the Quote Currency is

Percent Change = ((B − A) / A) × 100

A positive change is appreciation and a negative change is depreciation.

Therefore:
Relative to USD, NGN Depreciated 38.98%.

Relative to NGN, USD Appreciated 63.889%.


Dude was correct!

Bros you are adding more confusion to the pot of soup.

Are you saying it is now a case of how full a glass of water is?

9free:
Hahaha....wanaj0$$$$$ don suffer oh.
Guy na one the most loaded board members of NEM you open mouth call newbie?
Just pray make Oga Nosa2 no see/read this your post.

Nosa was brand ambassador for NEM that time.

naturalflow:
oga you don't know what you are saying.

Oga Please enlighten me.

From what I understand they are going to introduce approx 200 Million additional shares of Fidson. Usually when that happens the share price will go down.

Also they will require to make more profit to retain the dividend they pay per share.

RabbiDoracle:
It is simple maths.

Naira goes from say N360 to N590, this is 39% devaluation loss.

If I brought in $1m and invested in an asset that rose from N2 to N12 (e.g UCAP) , let's break it down:

At $1= N360, my fund is N360m.

Excluding fees, I get 180m units of UCAP.

Sell at average of N12 and I get N2.16B excluding fees.

That is 500% gain in naira value.

Now exchange rate is $1= N590,

Final fund will be $3.66m, increase of 266% in dollar value.

This excludes dividends from the stock which when added beats devaluation of the currency.

Questions :
-Are you not basing your assumptions on hindsight( it has already happened)
-How do you find similar asset that is yet to attain such price like UCAP?
- If there are controls, how do you take your funds out?

1st question : Use foresight, research to find the new multi-baggers

2nd question : look around and you will see value. There are people whose job is to forecast possible selling price targets.

3rd question: Leave story.

You are toooooo much. I get the big picture now.

RabbiDoracle:
Not having argument with you either.

Yen is currently being devalued against USD. The same with Euro. Check EURUSD and USDJPY.

My point is when you see the index breakout, that is when media starts to talk of how FPIs are bidding the market. Try and use morningstar as your guide on level of FPI participation.

The markets with such negatives are the best ripe for a massive bull run.

Okay, I see. What you are saying is that the frequent devaluation of our currency is not a deterrent to funds coming in. In other words the returns they will make will outweigh the devaluations loss.


Me I do not want to wait to hear from media, I want to be inside the ride before the media starts talking

naturalflow:
Fidson is taking us there.

Taking you where?

1 to 10 bonus will lead to increase in tradable shares and drop in price.

Also that will lead in drop in dividend per share

RabbiDoracle:
When NSE ASI breaks 2008 high and going to All Time High, you will be hearing news about such inflows.

I am not actually trying to argue with you but I am curious as to why foreign investors will bring in their funds when there are devaluations risks and other negative economic factors.

RabbiDoracle:
The following happening majorly in the US, EU

-bond selloff
-equities selloff
-crypto asset selloff around the world

Funds don't stay idle. Where will the funds go to?

Sectors currently receiving the funds :
- Metals (gold, silver)
- Commodities
- then Emerging markets with commodity backing.

They don't have a choice.

If you say funds flow to shorting overvalued assets, the maximum you can make shorting assets is 99.9%. It is only when you go long that you make astronomical gains.

But who would bring funds into Nigeria with currency controls and nature of government and economy? Are they not going to loose out on their capital?

emmasoft:
All stockbroking firms still take mandate by email for clients that can't trade themselves.
Or don't have the facilities.
It's not a matter of old or new school.

What I meant by old school was, individuals being able to trade themselves is a recent development, that is about 11 years ago after the 2007/08 crash.

I know how many times my broker short changed me when i used to send mandates to them but being able to trade directly was a breath of fresh air.

emmanuelewumi:
I am old school, I send my sale and purchase via email as early as 4am.

Wow, you are disciplined.

That means you have done a thorough research and not moved by daily price fluctuations as you have already set your targets.

Cool

emmanuelewumi:
Stanbic IBTC Stockbroker is now everybody's Stockbroker. You can open a Stockbroking account with them with zero Naira.


Commissions is 0.7% for transactions done via their app or self service and 1% for transactions done via emails.

Wait oo, Stanbic takes mandate by email? I thought their clients can buy on the floor by themselves.

Are they still old school?

onegentleguy:
Your question underscores the part about the need to book some profit obeying ones investment strategy and why at present, I have a NEUTRAL rating on the coy given its CMP as highlighted in the post you quoted.
...that should help guide your decision-making.

Talking about div yield, some folks can boast of better figures having aligned at a much lower price. (i.e some persons bought when I think, Mr Samgru mentioned it here)

It's always best to align with what should not only suite your investment personality and goals but also give you peace of mind.
...if GUINNESS at CMP doesn't, simply look elsewhere.
Everything will usually depend on you and you alone.

Regards

Thank you for this response.

I was actually asking out of curiosity. I am wondering what someone that buys Guinness at N95 will gain.
Is it for speculation? Maybe hoping it will experience a 20% appreciation that is trade at N114.

The person that buys at N114 what do they stand to gain? They will be hoping for another 20%?

These are thoughts running through my head.

onegentleguy:
NOTE: Add GUINNESS and ZENITH BANK to the list above.

GUINNESS appears to be a "money making machine".
The just released Q3, 2022 financial print shows an over 730% jump in NPM (EM in view)... with an impressive growth witnessed accross all revenue and earnings line compared to previous yr guide.

Expect a better cash/div declaration by yr end (>> 3 months from now)

To this end, my FVE (for Guinness) has adjusted upwards to N117.61 (previous: N86.15) using a conservative valuation model and attaching an appreciable premium net of surrounding volatility.

That said, short termers who keyed in long before now (ref: btw N20-25) might wish to book some profit though.

Short term? ...Neutral.
Mid-Long term? ...Hold.
Rating: Neutral.

As for ZENITH, well...

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. ...when in doubt, do well to seek the service of a reputable investment manager/adviser for guidance.

Thanks bro for your analysis.

I have a question someone that buys Guinness at N117 what do they stand to gain?

I do not know if Guinness will be able to pay N3 as full year dividend. That is about 2.5% returns.

emmanuelewumi:
But your holdings are complete. That is the most important thing. If your holdings, you don't need to give yourself unnecessary headaches

Go to First Registrar to get the transaction history of your Oando shares, at times the Registrars do not update their records with CSCS

Okay thank you I will go to the registra.

emmanuelewumi:
Does that mean that the Investments are not showing in your portfolio or what?


You can't get the transaction details of companies that merged or companies that restructured to Holdco eg First Bank, GTB and Access Bank.

What you will have now will be the transaction details from they the Busineses were restructured

For example lets say I have 100k units of Oando I bought in tranches. I only see transactions of when I bought 50k units of Oando.

emmanuelewumi:
Did you transfer your Stockbroking account?

If you keep regular updates concerning your Investments, transaction details in the last 9 years is good enough for the monitoring of your Investments

Yes to the bolded.

But the ones with missing data were not among those transferred.

emmanuelewumi:
Subscribe to CSCS online to monitor your transaction history, it is about N3000 per annum

I actually subscribed to CSCS online.

When i checked some of my stocks i did not see the complete buys and sells.

I did not see transactions beyond 2013

emmanuelewumi:
Una no get joy for this thread. Make una show love to the guy and support his hustle

Oga Emma,

I know you are a veteran in having CSCS account.

Please can you advise on what to do.

Some of my stocks are not showing all the transactions I made on them on the CSCS portal.

I have sent a mail to the email address available but no response.

You feedback would be appreciated.

BabsO2:
Did not notice every stock have transactions captured. Surely there will be limitations on database capacity/architecture if all transactions dating back to whenever are to be made viewable. Thus some data histories will be truncated automatically after some xyz activity or time or something.

Will take a closer look next time I log in. And check how much historical transactions are there and if it's on all stocks or some.

Yes you might be right.

Transactions beyond 2013 are not showing on my profile.

The sad thing is it is difficult to reach anyone at CSCS. When you call they put you on hold forever. They have not responded to my mail to them.

Ades1:
I bet the ones you're not able to view are purchases/sales you made before the companies that transitioned to Holding Cos. Since GT transitioned, all history prior to the transition vanished, and till today this has not been fixed and will probably never be fixed.

No, they are not Holdco companies.

I believe Oga Emma will know better.

BabsO2:
I noticed too that for some stocks one can see the transactions in ones CSCS account when logged-in. Could it be time related?. That is last x weeks transactions. Or is stock related ?

You noticed too?

It should be all transactions dating back to whenever. That is why they are selling the service i think.

yMcy56:
You can only see your stocks, total quantities, current price and total value.
You can't view buy or sell from CSCS, you can only do that in your trading portfolio with your broker.

Thank you for the feedback.

But you can actually see transaction history of all your buy and sell, purchase or sell price, quantity purchased or sold, date of purchase, price bought or sold.

That is why it is CSCS( Central Securities Clearing System) they clear all trades on the NSE and keep the records.

That is why when we go to our brokers, the print our CSCS statements for us.


I decided to renew mine and I could see all my trade history for some of my stocks and could not see for the others.

I wonder if anyone has had that experience.

Hello Ogas in the house.

So i decided to renew my CSCS account and when i logged in, I did not see all my stockholding.

Secondly when i checked the transactions for one of my stocks, there was not sell or buy indicated.

I am confused i thought with CSCS it is possible to see all the buy or sell of a particular stock you own?

emmanuelewumi:
With N100,000 you can buy FGN bond in the secondary market through Stanbic IBTC Stockbroker. With N1 million you can buy in the primary market through Stanbic IBTC Bank

Thank you oga Emma.

emmasoft:
Each stockbroking or investment firm have their minimum deposit required from prospective Bond investor. It differs from one firm to the other. If you are to subscribe directly at the primary market you need N50 million.

It's this amount ( N50m) involved that brought about FGN Savings bond which investors can subscribe with a minimum of 5k and maximum of N50 million because many Nigerians can't afford N50 million.

Emma thanks,

I need more understanding.

But the minimium for Treasury Bills is 50 million but people are able to buy with even 500k.

Does it mean that people with N1 million will not be able to buy FGN bonds in the primary market as well as secondary market?

Hello Gurus in the house,

Please i need a confirmation on FGN Bonds in the secondary and primary market.

I went to my broker they said the FGN Bonds for secondary market the minimum amount they can subscribe is N5 Million. Same thing with primary market. I want to confirm if that is true.

JavaSQL:
Imagine, a re-opening bond, why can't they let the initial bond and invested sum run and complete it's tenure if not greed? The terms are that the,13 percent you see may drop to 9 percent after settling initial creditors.

I have seen situations whereby an initial bond request was to borrow N150 billion but he turn out was massive and the FGN ended up borrowing N250 billion (This is disguised fraud) and no one is saying anything about it.

Now they want to bring back toll gates, giving money to Naija govt now looks like lavishing money on a girlfriend, when una break up and you ask her of all the loans she go tell you say you don chop am for kpekus.

Not discouraging you but beware !

Thank you bro.

Does it mean it is better to buy in the secondary market?

[img] [/img]

March FGN Bond is next week.

@emmanuelewumi

Please is this a good deal? Considering the war in Ukraine and 2023 elections.

[img][/img]

From the part circled what is the interest rate?