₦airaland Forum

RabbiDoracle:
The following happening majorly in the US, EU

-bond selloff
-equities selloff
-crypto asset selloff around the world

Funds don't stay idle. Where will the funds go to?

Sectors currently receiving the funds :
- Metals (gold, silver)
- Commodities
- then Emerging markets with commodity backing.

They don't have a choice.

If you say funds flow to shorting overvalued assets, the maximum you can make shorting assets is 99.9%. It is only when you go long that you make astronomical gains.

But who would bring funds into Nigeria with currency controls and nature of government and economy? Are they not going to loose out on their capital?

emmasoft:
All stockbroking firms still take mandate by email for clients that can't trade themselves.
Or don't have the facilities.
It's not a matter of old or new school.

What I meant by old school was, individuals being able to trade themselves is a recent development, that is about 11 years ago after the 2007/08 crash.

I know how many times my broker short changed me when i used to send mandates to them but being able to trade directly was a breath of fresh air.

emmanuelewumi:
I am old school, I send my sale and purchase via email as early as 4am.

Wow, you are disciplined.

That means you have done a thorough research and not moved by daily price fluctuations as you have already set your targets.

Cool

emmanuelewumi:
Stanbic IBTC Stockbroker is now everybody's Stockbroker. You can open a Stockbroking account with them with zero Naira.


Commissions is 0.7% for transactions done via their app or self service and 1% for transactions done via emails.

Wait oo, Stanbic takes mandate by email? I thought their clients can buy on the floor by themselves.

Are they still old school?

onegentleguy:
Your question underscores the part about the need to book some profit obeying ones investment strategy and why at present, I have a NEUTRAL rating on the coy given its CMP as highlighted in the post you quoted.
...that should help guide your decision-making.

Talking about div yield, some folks can boast of better figures having aligned at a much lower price. (i.e some persons bought when I think, Mr Samgru mentioned it here)

It's always best to align with what should not only suite your investment personality and goals but also give you peace of mind.
...if GUINNESS at CMP doesn't, simply look elsewhere.
Everything will usually depend on you and you alone.

Regards

Thank you for this response.

I was actually asking out of curiosity. I am wondering what someone that buys Guinness at N95 will gain.
Is it for speculation? Maybe hoping it will experience a 20% appreciation that is trade at N114.

The person that buys at N114 what do they stand to gain? They will be hoping for another 20%?

These are thoughts running through my head.

onegentleguy:
NOTE: Add GUINNESS and ZENITH BANK to the list above.

GUINNESS appears to be a "money making machine".
The just released Q3, 2022 financial print shows an over 730% jump in NPM (EM in view)... with an impressive growth witnessed accross all revenue and earnings line compared to previous yr guide.

Expect a better cash/div declaration by yr end (>> 3 months from now)

To this end, my FVE (for Guinness) has adjusted upwards to N117.61 (previous: N86.15) using a conservative valuation model and attaching an appreciable premium net of surrounding volatility.

That said, short termers who keyed in long before now (ref: btw N20-25) might wish to book some profit though.

Short term? ...Neutral.
Mid-Long term? ...Hold.
Rating: Neutral.

As for ZENITH, well...

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. ...when in doubt, do well to seek the service of a reputable investment manager/adviser for guidance.

Thanks bro for your analysis.

I have a question someone that buys Guinness at N117 what do they stand to gain?

I do not know if Guinness will be able to pay N3 as full year dividend. That is about 2.5% returns.

emmanuelewumi:
But your holdings are complete. That is the most important thing. If your holdings, you don't need to give yourself unnecessary headaches

Go to First Registrar to get the transaction history of your Oando shares, at times the Registrars do not update their records with CSCS

Okay thank you I will go to the registra.

emmanuelewumi:
Does that mean that the Investments are not showing in your portfolio or what?


You can't get the transaction details of companies that merged or companies that restructured to Holdco eg First Bank, GTB and Access Bank.

What you will have now will be the transaction details from they the Busineses were restructured

For example lets say I have 100k units of Oando I bought in tranches. I only see transactions of when I bought 50k units of Oando.

emmanuelewumi:
Did you transfer your Stockbroking account?

If you keep regular updates concerning your Investments, transaction details in the last 9 years is good enough for the monitoring of your Investments

Yes to the bolded.

But the ones with missing data were not among those transferred.

emmanuelewumi:
Subscribe to CSCS online to monitor your transaction history, it is about N3000 per annum

I actually subscribed to CSCS online.

When i checked some of my stocks i did not see the complete buys and sells.

I did not see transactions beyond 2013

emmanuelewumi:
Una no get joy for this thread. Make una show love to the guy and support his hustle

Oga Emma,

I know you are a veteran in having CSCS account.

Please can you advise on what to do.

Some of my stocks are not showing all the transactions I made on them on the CSCS portal.

I have sent a mail to the email address available but no response.

You feedback would be appreciated.

BabsO2:
Did not notice every stock have transactions captured. Surely there will be limitations on database capacity/architecture if all transactions dating back to whenever are to be made viewable. Thus some data histories will be truncated automatically after some xyz activity or time or something.

Will take a closer look next time I log in. And check how much historical transactions are there and if it's on all stocks or some.

Yes you might be right.

Transactions beyond 2013 are not showing on my profile.

The sad thing is it is difficult to reach anyone at CSCS. When you call they put you on hold forever. They have not responded to my mail to them.

Ades1:
I bet the ones you're not able to view are purchases/sales you made before the companies that transitioned to Holding Cos. Since GT transitioned, all history prior to the transition vanished, and till today this has not been fixed and will probably never be fixed.

No, they are not Holdco companies.

I believe Oga Emma will know better.

BabsO2:
I noticed too that for some stocks one can see the transactions in ones CSCS account when logged-in. Could it be time related?. That is last x weeks transactions. Or is stock related ?

You noticed too?

It should be all transactions dating back to whenever. That is why they are selling the service i think.

yMcy56:
You can only see your stocks, total quantities, current price and total value.
You can't view buy or sell from CSCS, you can only do that in your trading portfolio with your broker.

Thank you for the feedback.

But you can actually see transaction history of all your buy and sell, purchase or sell price, quantity purchased or sold, date of purchase, price bought or sold.

That is why it is CSCS( Central Securities Clearing System) they clear all trades on the NSE and keep the records.

That is why when we go to our brokers, the print our CSCS statements for us.


I decided to renew mine and I could see all my trade history for some of my stocks and could not see for the others.

I wonder if anyone has had that experience.

Hello Ogas in the house.

So i decided to renew my CSCS account and when i logged in, I did not see all my stockholding.

Secondly when i checked the transactions for one of my stocks, there was not sell or buy indicated.

I am confused i thought with CSCS it is possible to see all the buy or sell of a particular stock you own?

emmanuelewumi:
With N100,000 you can buy FGN bond in the secondary market through Stanbic IBTC Stockbroker. With N1 million you can buy in the primary market through Stanbic IBTC Bank

Thank you oga Emma.

emmasoft:
Each stockbroking or investment firm have their minimum deposit required from prospective Bond investor. It differs from one firm to the other. If you are to subscribe directly at the primary market you need N50 million.

It's this amount ( N50m) involved that brought about FGN Savings bond which investors can subscribe with a minimum of 5k and maximum of N50 million because many Nigerians can't afford N50 million.

Emma thanks,

I need more understanding.

But the minimium for Treasury Bills is 50 million but people are able to buy with even 500k.

Does it mean that people with N1 million will not be able to buy FGN bonds in the primary market as well as secondary market?

Hello Gurus in the house,

Please i need a confirmation on FGN Bonds in the secondary and primary market.

I went to my broker they said the FGN Bonds for secondary market the minimum amount they can subscribe is N5 Million. Same thing with primary market. I want to confirm if that is true.

JavaSQL:
Imagine, a re-opening bond, why can't they let the initial bond and invested sum run and complete it's tenure if not greed? The terms are that the,13 percent you see may drop to 9 percent after settling initial creditors.

I have seen situations whereby an initial bond request was to borrow N150 billion but he turn out was massive and the FGN ended up borrowing N250 billion (This is disguised fraud) and no one is saying anything about it.

Now they want to bring back toll gates, giving money to Naija govt now looks like lavishing money on a girlfriend, when una break up and you ask her of all the loans she go tell you say you don chop am for kpekus.

Not discouraging you but beware !

Thank you bro.

Does it mean it is better to buy in the secondary market?

[img] [/img]

March FGN Bond is next week.

@emmanuelewumi

Please is this a good deal? Considering the war in Ukraine and 2023 elections.

[img][/img]

From the part circled what is the interest rate?

RabbiDoracle:
All through 2022 and part of 2023, I expect Dollar to settle at N410 or so. There will be so much dollar liquidity in the world that people will even be scared of holding it.

After these periods, it's a different kettle of fish.

Some smaller African, Asian and Caribbean countries will end up using USD as their official currencies.

Oga Oracle welcome back.

I really missed you. I thank God you are fine and well. I was afraid for you noting that your last past was at the peak of Covid end of last year.

It seems you went for sabatical


Your students are ready for lectures

OBAGADAFFI:
He really messed up the economy.

Nigerians and blame game.

Then what will you say about the finance minister or the executive or the CBN has the power to single handedly mess up the economy?

Asking for a friend

In my opinion it is a wise decision to save in dollars.

There are people that are putting money away in investments for their children school fees, so that they will not have much pressure when it is time to pay the fees especially university education. Those set of people it is wise for them to hedge against devaluation by converting their funds to dollars.

These set of people are not investing to make money but to preserve their capital.

Chairman,

I think i disagree from the bolded.

Devaluation affects everything in Nigeria. It is because of devaluation that the government wants to sell petrol at above N300, importers buy dollar at N500, they will transfer the difference to the buying public. Prices of almost everything has gone up.

N1000 of today cannot buy what N1000 in december 2019 can buy.

The people bringing in money from outside will have more naira at their disposal.

The only good thing about devalaution is that most Nigerian goods and produce will be cheaper for someone coming with dollars

Lazyyouth4u:
I understand ma. What I’m trying to say is that if you convert all your money and move offshore, you will have to deal with stress to open the account, move money around and then pay fees and charges every time you move money.

It may work to transfer all your money to USD (and keep in a dom account in Naija ) and then only change when you need it but this usually only works for people with small amounts because of CBN regulations.

You see the problem with this devaluation of a thing is that we are in it. There is nothing we can do about it and[b] I can tell you that those that feel it more are people bringing money from abroad. If you are earning and spending mainly Naira, trust me you don’t feel that devaluation is killing you that much until people start talking about it and then you start doing the maths. It happens to all of us.
[/b]
What I think is a smart thing to do is convert some (up to CBN maximum) and keep in a dom account, then find the best investment to put a percentage of the NGN, and then find an offshore mutual fund (and/or other alternative asset classes if you are brave and like to take risks) to invest (not save) for long term offshore uses (like buying cars from US, children US university fees, travel/shopping, relocation, retirement abroad etc). This is not an investment advice o b4 anybody come insult me. Na wetin my lazy brain think o.

Oga,

Do you know Taooma the comedian? Do you know Mr Macroni, Don Jazzy, Iheanocho, Chimamanda Adichie, Akinwumi Adesina, Yemi Alade, Ashishat Oshola, Olu Jacobs ..........

You know all these people i mentioned and you say Nigerians are wicked and corrupt.

YOU ARE WRONG

In a place that has a good legal system Mr Maduka will recover all he lost and the culprits punished. The people that did what he described are not up to 0.05 of the Nigerian population why should you use them to paint the whole Nigerians as bad?

What he described happens everywhere in the world.

ultron12345:
Nigerians

I was just listening to a Forbes interview of Cosmos Maduka, the founder of Coscharis Group. He was asked what his worst day in business was. He said he had two worst days in business, as follows.

The first, he was in Lagos and received a phone call that there was commotion at his branch office in the eastern part of the country. He rushed there and found out that all his staff there had disappeared with money they had collected in advance from customers for supplies. He was sued by 53 traders and had to repay all the stolen money.

The second, a friend needed financial assistance to bring a shipment to Nigeria. He then stood as guarantor for the bank loan collected by this friend. Till today, the shipment never arrived. The friend sold off the shipment on the sea and disappeared with the money, leaving Mr Maduka with N21 billion in debt, producing interest of N300 million monthly. He had to sell of his entire majority shareholding in one the major banks in order to pay it off.

Nigerians. Why are we so wicked and corrupt?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-73HOOlMNc

Biafran4life:
The quarterly results for brewery companies have not been good based on many factors we have discussed here.Even the leader in that sector result for the yr was not fantastic.Guinnes beer section has been bad even before covid 19.This made them call back through products from major distributor to balance credit facilities which showed as receiveables in thr book

I am just saying that most of those factors that led to it's price crash do they still exist?

The major factors that impacted its share price was devaluation, covid 19 restrictions. As we speak those factors have been factored in and seem not to exist anymore.

To me it is not a matter of insider information but information that is available to all, in addition to speculation is also at work here too.

Biafran4life:
SEC or NSE should wake up to its responsibility.If Guinness comes out with anything extra ordinary in its result.Then know it that before this results get to the public it is usually compromised, friends and family sees the results.It just happened with uacn . That is why you see the demand for such share keep going up both in price/quantity.This country is just too corrupt.Guinness will confirm my allegation.We watch

Hello,

I think you are coming to a hasty and wrong conclusion.

Did you look at the second quarter result for Guinness? Did you find out what made it's share price to crash so low?

Firstly at the end of every quarter there is always a rally in share price of most stocks. For Guinness the quarter that just ended is its 3rd quarter.

One of the factors that affected the business was covid 19 lock downs, clubs, parties,weddings, burials were reduced most of last year and especially during Christmas when they were meant to make a lot of turnover/sales.

For last quarter most of the restrictions are easing so it is expected that there would be improved turnover going forward.

A combination of these factors and looking at its reports should give you an indication of where the share price is going.

I am looking for good and experienced transcribers.

If you are interested reply this or send a message.

A short test is involved before engagement

Good and experienced transcribers needed for a large project.

@Rabbidoracle

Where are you? I trust you are doing well.

Your students are missing you.

Wishing you well.

speak2lift:
Good day all, Gurus in the house - Please does anyone have an explanation as to why the share prices of dividend paying companies drop significantly after dividend payment is made. For instance, i have noticed that Zenith bank share price usually drops after they pay dividend for the outgoing year.?

Looking forward to your contributions please.

Zenith paid a dividend of N2.70, the sum of N2.70 was deducted from its share price.

After this, there is not much expected from Zenith, hence most people sell off and wait for an attractive price.

The price appreciation normally occurs when quarterly results come out, as the quarterly results give an indication of the dividend that would be paid the next year.

Hence the cyclical nature.

Then other factors like, interest rates, national economy come into play