₦airaland Forum

Heh.

So maybe in this sense it would be better if Nigeria could indeed split.

So that those of us who want to institute population control can do so without concerns about being swamped by those who want to breed like cockroach

Yeah I'm just not sold on industrialization alone being what will slow down pop growth.

If a ton of manufacturing jobs spring up in nigeria and unemployment drops to say 10% or 15%, probably people will actually start having more kids. Since there is more money available.

I think family planning/birth control is needed. And this needs to be done independently of industrialization, not just as a supposed consequence of it.

yes

Pretty much. If power supply doesn't become widely available, then the manufacturing industry will remain moribund. You could investigate subsidies/protectionist barriers too I suppose, but neither solves the main issue.

Part of the article talks about today.

Part of the article talks about tomorrow.

That one believes that Nigeria is not congested now doesn't mean that one shouldn't take steps to make it less congested later.

300 million Nigerians 25 years from now is a lot. Talk less of what the # will look like in 50 or 100 years.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure...

Nah.

I'm not sure that industrialization alone will induce lower population growth. One doesn't necessarily follow from the other.

Dividing the country doesn't help (at least, not directly.)

The point the article makes is one of population DENSITY and rapid population GROWTH.

Even after dividing Nigeria, many parts will still remain densely populated and/or with very high pop growth.

Now, certainly industrialization will help.

But family planning would also be quite wise. I doubt the economic miracle currently happening in say China would be possible if they'd not instituted family planning many years ago...

Heh.

My 17 year old sister is better than 99% of men on this planet. Talk less of equal.

I'm not even a male feminist or something...just game recognize game.

[quote author=ndu_chucks]A business did not die, several industries died. Yeap, thats the dutch disease for you, its a well documented phenomenon. Its much more than going out of business because your competition can deliver the same goods cheaper than you.[/quote]ndu_chucks, you are flailing around.

An industry is made up of many businesses, no? So if the industry died, then necessarily many businesses died? Thus your first sentence is a contradiction.

You are now appealing to something (dutch disease) that I suspect that you don't understand well.

Out of curiosity, have you ever had to prepare a budget yourself before? Started a business? Again, when 'your competition can deliver the same goods cheaper than you', then your profits necessarily SHRINK. And if they shrink too much, you (or I, ekt_bear) will close down that business and cut down your losses! I'd sell off my equipment/other assets, fire my workers, and find something else to do with the proceeds.

It is that simple. This is cold, hard fact. And there is no way to get around it.

You are wasting your time unless you confront this fact and slay this Nigerian power dragon.

same

Gross abuse of power by these reps if true.

Take your car to the dealership and have them fix it. Or utilize your warranty.

Don't turn the house of reps into a circus

[quote author=ndu_chucks]The collapse had little to do with high expenses versus small profit.[/quote]

lol

Do you believe this sentence you just typed? That a business died, and the reason it died had "little" to do with profit and expenses?

lmao!!

This is mathematics, effectively.

Like a 2 + 2 thing...you can agree or not, but the truth of it is independent of your agreement.

If you want to sell your stuff for the same price as the next man, but your expenses are higher, then necessarily your profit is smaller. If expenses too high, then profit becomes 0 or even possibly negative. And when profit is small, 0 or negative, factories are closed, laborers released, and unemployment rises.

Regarding the 80s, electricity demand in Nigeria was lower than it is in 2012, diesel was heavily, heavily subsidized, etc.

Today is a very different place from 1980...

Lol

Nneka ke?

She'd be more successful distracting me if she is in bra and panties

This in a nutshell is the problem.

A guy in the US who wants to open up a factory buys his equipment, hires his workers, plugs his machines in the wall.

A guy in Nigeria is burning expensive diesel and so the goods produced from his factory are too costly. Or he has to build his own power plant, essentially.

The barriers to entry are too high. And while the barriers remain high, then you scare away investment in manufacturing, and thus have no realistic hope of decreasing unemployment.

(Not to mention naija's crazy high population growth also makes it difficult to lower unemployment...but that is another story.)

The key is to make electricity work and cheaply available (through deregulation), so that small businessmen with $500k-1 million or so in capital can take advantage of the cheap labor in Nigeria to start manufacturing.

If this is done, then the agricultural produce of this country can be processed and value added.

As things stand...well, let's use me as an example.

Suppose that I wanted to start a factory in my home state. First, there is no electricity, so I'd have to generate my own. And obviously it isn't enough to just find electricity somehow, but I must generate it at affordable prices. Otherwise, I'm not competitive pricewise with my competitors in other countries who don't have this disadvantage.

OK, so where do I get the electricity from? Diesel as a fuel source is not realistic, since it isn't cheap enough. Natural gas is a very cheap fuel source but:

A) No gas pipeline runs through my state
B) If one did, then I have to invest in my own NG generator. Not the end of the world, but certainly an additional hassle/inconvenience that your competitors in the US, Europe, China, etc don't have deal with. My competitors just buy their machines and plug it into the wall, I on the other hand have to do so much more, meaning I'm at a disadvantage.

Nigeria's best bet is to make electricity regular and widely available at market prices. Do this, and then the barriers to entry for prospective manufacturers/industrialists is gone. Meaning a guy can reasonably put together $300-500k, open up a small factory and not be at a huge competitive disadvantage with China and co..

Has nothing to do with bigotry or hatred of a region. Your proposal simply isn't realistic. I wouldn't advocate it for mine either..

You are entitled to disagree with anything you like.

You may even disagree that up is up, or assert that 2+2 is not in fact equal to 4.

It is a free world.

But you'll continue to bang your head against the wall and not achieve your goal of poverty alleviation in your region.

*shrug*

[quote author=ndu_chucks]Malam ekt_bear, I'm afraid you are over analyzing the issue. You seem to erroneously believe that no industrial activity can be successful in Nigeria until we completely solve the problem of electricity.[/quote]Indeed. This is it, in a nutshell.

Let me simply remind you that in the USA where you reside, you can find Gari, Poundo Yam, and several packaged goods from Nigeria even without uninterruptible power supply.

Heh. And if I quote you the price of those goods compared to the price in nigeria, you might laugh or cry

Moreover, the total fraction of say gari calories consumed in America vs say potato calories...I wonder if it is even 0.1%. It isn't competitive pricewise, and thus is only available in niche stores, and thus is a minuscule fraction of the jobs created in this country.

In general, niche products that are more expensive than their competitors don't create lots of jobs.

As far as subsidies go, just google tomato subsidies and you'll find that the EU, USA, and other countries including China, subsidize that industry. Have you never heard of farm subsidies in the USA?

Evidence of tomato subsidies specifically? You made the assertion. The onus is on you to back it up.


Overall, your best bet is to think things through a bit more deeply....your analysis is too simple and unrealistic.

[quote author=ndu_chucks]The issues you are raising are actually quite simple to resolve with the right leadership and support from the government. Gas is already transported via trucks and rail to depots around the country where retailers make their purchases. We just do not have underground pipelines to get the gas to homes like they do abroad. There is no reason why companies cannot store enough gas for their activities and use them to generate their own power. Excess capacity can then be put into the power grid for good money.[/quote]And how does the bolded affect the price per kWh of electricity in Nigeria versus a place where gas is moved via pipeline?

Like I said, your analysis is too simple..

The companies who sell these canned tomatoes to us, are currently subsidized by their own governments (China is a big example)

Source?

[quote author=ndu_chucks]We have plenty of natural gas, we even export it.

Its a simple matter to use moderate size storage tanks, on location, to keep the gas available since pipeline networks are not fully operational. All the problems or potential road blocks you are identifying, are not insurmountable. The vision and leadership is what is lacking.[/quote]So you plan on liquidifying/compressing it, and transport it that way?

Have you looked into whether those additional costs (liquidifying, transporting by road) make the energy source cost-effective? Keep in mind that you are competing against others abroad who don't have to deal with these issues..

This is more than vision/leadership.

Major tasks that need to be handled, not trivial ones...

Having gas is different from having it available for power generation.

What did the man do between high school and 2001?

Fayose attended Olivet Baptist High School, Oyo.[1] He conducted one of the most sought after medical outreach programmes during his political campaign in 2001.
He grew up in Ibadan, Oyo State, went through thick and thin to later became a formidable person in the history of Ekiti State.

Lmao

If the ACN governors performs poorly at the end of their terms, then it lowers the standard necessary for the opposition (PDP).

But the problem with the PDP is that rather than looking for the best men they can, putting their strongest effort, their strategy instead relies on mistakes made by the ACN.

Imagine a competition where one party (PDP) hopes to gain victory only by its opponent fvcking up, rather than through their own excellent performance?

It is just a very bad mentality to have...

How about instead you gain power by putting amazing candidates rather than hoping the ACN ones fail?

You have nice handwriting Ileke-Idi.

Mine is...well

[quote author=ndu_chucks]Great point on electricity. The way to resolve the electricity issue would be for these factories to generate their own electricity and sell excess power into the grid. There are relatively inexpensive gas fired plants which can be purchased for this. The plants will pay for itself in a short time given the amount of tomato paste consumed in Nigeria. Ghana alone spent over $30million importing tomato paste in 2007. There is ready market for the product.[/quote]Where do you get the gas from to power these factories? Where do you intend on locating them?

What do you do about the FG restriction that evidently prevents the private sector from generating more than 1 MW w/o a license?

Well if the choice is:

a) Throw $1 billion down the toilet on something that will probably yield absolutely nothing (Chad basin exploration)
b) almost anything else


Then you choose (b). But typically things aren't as cut and dry as this. Notice btw pretty much everyone on that other thread saw that Chad basin exploration=419.

However, you still have to show that your agric proposal is one of the strongest alternative uses of the cash.

Why for example is spending money on tomato paste factories with no cheap electricity to power them a good idea? Etc, etc.

You need to think things through a bit more, imo

[quote author=ndu_chucks]BTW, let me make some clarifications: What I am opposed to is the $1billion the Feds plan For Inland Oil/Gas Exploration In The Chad Basin And Other Areas. Read More about it here

A large portion of $500 million can be used to address the related electricity issues for these factories.[/quote]Yeah, seems like fraud to me. If no oil companies are willing to take the risk, then almost certainly it isn't a profitable business opportunity. So likely this money will go down the drain.

Would make more sense to spend the money elsewhere.

shymmex: My bad, I thought it was the FG - but it is Petrobras.

Indeed. As I suspected.

So wishing that the $1 billion were spent on something else is irrelevant, since it isn't naija's money being used.

There is no way around it, basically.

If you are the PDP and want to beat the ACN in the SW, you'd better be looking for world-class men, not random scrubs and touts to run against them.

Aregbesola is imo the most toutish of the ACN governors. Wouldn't it be easier to defeat him when his term runs out with a high-caliber man rather than a scrub?

Do you see the Republicans trying to defeat Obama with trash, or with a stud like Mitt Romney?

Your idea of a tomato paste factory is good.

But again, how do you plan on powering this factory?