₦airaland Forum

ifyalways: Grant not donation.

Btw,where is all these monies coming from?Strange things happen in Nigeria.This is no news kpa kpa.

What is the difference between a grant and a donation?

Can anything good come from Somalia?

delomos: @ekt_bear:
Umm, perhaps not, do see this graph here(at the very bottom): http://www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~afra/goodies/monty.pdf

That graph has nothing to do with human sentiment. It just compares the theoretical probability to that obtained from simulating 100k games.

I always eat breakfast before brushing my teeth.

I agree, Apple shouldn't be compared with Dell or HP. Such a comparison is somewhat nonsensical...they've never been about selling commodity computers. They've focused on the higher end market, essentially "luxury" computers.

But anyway, computers aren't the biggest reason for their high growth.

So for a variety of reasons, they shouldn't be compared

Apple Revenue Growth: 73.27%
http://ycharts.com/companies/AAPL/revenue_growth

Dell Revenue Growth: 2.16%
http://ycharts.com/companies/DELL/revenue_growth


lol

that makes no sense.

One company is growing at massive rate.

The other is shrinking or stagnating.

They should have the exact same P/E?

Obviously most people are willing to pay a premium for growth...

he is just your typical dishonest person

hp and dell are not comparable companies.

much slower growing...

Moreover, the larger issue is that you posted fake pictures claiming that it was fixed before it actually was, no?

So that it later was fixed doesn't change your initial duplicity..

From your own link:

dont be fooled, it's only a kilometer stretch that was done like that, try Ore and see..

There is nothing wrong with investing in real estate in the US. Actually there was a recent article (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/03/business/investors-are-looking-to-buy-homes-by-the-thousands.html) about some folks making money from this.

Just the key with any sort of investing is to look for value...underpriced assets.

And there is value pretty much everywhere.

What?

What does human/computer have to do with this?

The only assumptions made are:

1) The choice of the door with the car is made uniformly at random, and I as the player have no knowledge of it
2) The game host opens up N-2 goat doors.

So I don't think human sentiment comes into play here..?

heh.

I doubt I will ever invest in the Nigerian stock market again. Got burned very badly last time...between the rapidly depreciating currency and the lack of transparency, I don't think it a good place to put money.

Nigerian real estate is good though.

But I think my first preference going forward will be the US (and European possibly) stock market.

Provide evidence of this fixed road?

From the way you describe it, then it sounds like an instance of this problem for N=22 boxes. So the same strategy of switching should be the best one.

The fundamentals are great. Rapidly rising sales, high profit margins, rapidly rising profitability. Low P/E.

Basically, iPhones, iPads, and to a much lesser extent iPods and Macbooks.

Needless to say, this bear is quite happy

No, with 1 billion doors it is 999,999,999 divided by 1 billion.

So it really illustrates how advantageous it is to switch.

The key point with the 1 billion example is:
1) I almost certainly picked a useless goat door
2) The door the host picks almost certainly has the car. So he really helps me out a lot.

Yes.


My door is not opened. Neither is the other one the host selects. However, the third door has been opened and a goat revealed inside of it.

The mistake most people make when thinking about this is somehow thinking that the car is equally likely to be behind the two doors, after the host eliminates a goat door.

But as we see from this and as the 1 billion door example shows, this isn't true.

The host helps me out a lot by eliminating doors. And of the two doors remaining, I trust the other one more, since I probably choose the wrong door at the start of this game.

Good.

So let's calculate my chance of winning if I switch.

Well, let's ask something slightly different. What is my chance of LOSING if I switch? I lose if I switch iff I picked the right door from the beginning, right?

But again, I only pick the right door with probability 1/3rd. So I lose after switching with probability 1/3rd.

So I win if I switch with probability 2/3, since:

Prob(Win after Switch) + Prob(Lose after switch) = 1

Do you agree so far?

So what is the chance of me winning if I don't switch? If I keep my door? It has to be 1/3rd, right? Since if I don't switch, I can only possibly win if I picked the right door from the beginning.

Do you agree on this part?

OK.

So you are the game host.

No matter which door I pick, since there are 2 goat doors, then there will be at least one goat door remaining.

You the host eliminate one goat door.

You offer me the chance of switching.

OK. We start out with 3 doors. The location of the car is chosen uniformly at random.

I pick a door.

Do we agree that the probability of me being correct is 1/3? And thus the probability of me having chosen the wrong door is 2/3?

So in short, my best strategy is to switch, since 2/3 > 1/3

I win if I switch only if I picked the wrong door to begin with. I pick the wrong door with prob 2/3, right?

I win if I don't switch only if I picked the right door to begin with. This only happens with prob 1/3.

Which 2/3s? There are two. Which one are you asking about?

Papabrowne again? The propagandist?

Didn't he lose his credibility earlier from the roads incident?

To be honest i have difficulty telling many west african people apart period, at least just from appearance.

So imagine 1 billion doors. All but one of them has a goat in it. One of them has a car.

Let us assume that the door containing the car is chosen uniformly at random, and you have no knowledge of which door.

So you pick a door. You only have a 1 in 1 billion chance of being correct, right? So you are almost certainly wrong.

Now, the host eliminates 9,999,998 doors with goats in them. So you can keep your door, or switch to the other one he has. So the question is, what is the probability of you winning if you switch?

Or equivalently, what is the probability of me LOSING if I switch? I only lose if I switch if I'd picked the right door to start. But this only happens with probability 1 in 1 billion. So this means the probability of me WINNING if I switch is pretty close to 1.

We can run through this same exercise with 3 doors and get:
Prob(Lose if switch) = 1/3
Prob(Win if switch) = 2/3

Since
Prob(Win if don't switch) = 1/3
Prob(Lose if don't switch) = 2/3

Then I maximize my probability of winning by switching (2/3 is bigger than 1/3)

The Monty Hall problem. Yeah I found this quite counterintuitive the first time I saw it. I think it helps a lot to think of 1 billion doors rather than just 3.