₦airaland Forum

WTF didn't Katsina folk vote for Buhari at the same rate if this "hometown son" theory is valid? Why didn't they have the same impossible turnout (85%+) as Bayelsa did?

Why "hometown son" turnout (83.56%) for Imo, but less interest from Ebonyi (47.87%)? Why didn't the good folk of Benue and Nasarrawa reject Hausa-Fulani domination at the same rate as the good folk of Imo (83.56%)?

aletheia:
^Could it be for a reason as prosiac as the fact that their "son" was running for President: a presumably once in a lifetime event. Surely that would motivate them to turn out massively.

Katsina's son was also running for president. 52% voter turnout there, versus 85.61% in Bayelsa. Why?

Why does this "son" factor result in 1.6X the turnout rate in Bayelsa, versus Katsina?

Furthermore, according to you, this is some sort of emancipation event. Middle belters, SS, SE all rejecting Hausa-Fulani domination. So why the hell didn't the middle belt turn out at the same rates as the SS and SE? Hell, why didn't EBONYI turn out at the same rate as the rest of the SE? Why 47.87% in EBONYI, 83.56% in IMO?

https://i51.tinypic.com/23ww65f.png

Were some less keen on rejecting Hausa-Fulani domination than others?

Smh. People will go to any lengths to find justification for outcomes they like, no matter how implausible they seem. . .

aletheia:
My exact words were:^Those of you from the SW are somewhat insulated from the sense of aggrievement felt in these parts of the country because of the depradations of the likes of Babangida, Buhari, and Abacha. You came close during the June 12 issue, but 12 years on following the pseudo-appeasement of OBJ's presidency, you have forgotten. Those of us in the MB, SS and SE are still paying for it up till today. Believe me; we remember these things and it conditions our voting. Have you read the Willink commission report. We the minorities of the North have waited 50 years for these day.

As Kilode said, why didn't this inform your voting patterns in 1999, 2003 and 2007? In each election, there has been a candidate strongly supported by the North. Why is it only now that I am supposed to believe you came out at 85%+ voting rates to reject that candidate?

^
Can you explain why ACN got only 10,945 votes in Katsina state? Are there only about 10,000 Yorubas in Katsina?
CPC 1,163,919 70.99%
PDP   428,392 26.13%
ACN     10,945 0.67%
ANPP       6,342 0.39%

I don't think the percentage of non-indigenes in Katsina is as high as it is in PH or Rivers State, for one. Second, not clear that most of those Yoruba would vote ACN. . . if the SW #s are any indication, they seemed to have voted PDP in fairly large #s. The same doesn't appear to be true for core Northerners.

Ystranger:
Why did Bush beat Kerry?

Well because the Evangelicals turned out en masse to vote Bush in


That people in the SS/SE turned out to vote more than people in the SW is not out of order IMO. Middle-class people in the SW rarely vote anyway  and with no one to connect with on either ticket, I am not surprised that lower-class SW'ers did not turn up as well

Double and triple the rates   1.2 or 1.3 times more, I can buy. But triple

85.61% of all eligible voters in Bayelsa voted, and 99.63% of them voted for GEJ.
65.81% in Kaduna, 46.31% for GEJ.
52.43% voter turnout in Katsina, 26.13% for GEJ.
34.24% for Ekiti, 51.56% voted for GEJ.

Katsina and Kaduna, in both state presumably there should be very high voter turnout. Yet both were dwarfed by Bayelsa. Why the vast differential in voter apathy?

Not good losers

Mr Okechukwu, who was accompanied to the press conference by some CPC officials in the state, said he couldn’t understand how the ruling party got over 800,000 votes in an election which he said was marked by low turnout.

He said residents of the state that turned out to vote in the election couldn’t have been more than 500,000.

“Allocating 3,753 votes to the CPC is not only ridiculous, but goes to suggest that even we members of the party and our families did not vote in that election,” he said.

Mr Okechukwu also alleged that agents of the CPC were harassed and beaten up in some of the polling centres in the Enugu Urban and Agwu local government area.

Also speaking at the press conference, the CPC collation agent, Jerry Okafor said he was prevented from entering the collation centre in Enugu North local government even though he properly identified himself with his national identity card and voter registration card.

http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Home/5690715-146/story.csp

Again, was the turnout rate really double or triple that of elsewhere in southern naija? If so, why? And how come nobody noticed this on the ground and commented on it when the elections took place?

@aletheia:

1) A referendum on secession after 30, 40 odd years of warfare is a bit different than a presidential election, with several candidates.
2) Even if 100% of Igbos in say Enugu voted for GEJ. . . are we saying that Igbos were the only ones who voted? If you want to then base it on tribal lines. . . . Buhari got 16k votes in Rivers. Are you telling me that there are only 16K eligible Northern voters in all of Rivers? There are more than that in PH alone.
2) How do you explain the huge disparity in voter turnout rates?

Are you sure that you are not doing post-hoc rationalization for a very implausible result?

This is well, regarding Enugu: http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Home/5690715-146/story.csp


The 500k # is probably more reasonable.

This is the end result of rigging elections. Mayhem.

Kobojunkie:
Anyone have a link or spreadsheet of the 2007 Election results by state??

1999, 2003, and 2007 should all be compared to this current one, if possible.

[quote author=onye_ngbu* link=topic=648868.msg8151656#msg8151656 date=1303093172]Its not like i didnt know it will come to this but lemme tell u this:
in anambra where i am, people took it personal. People were mobilized to come out and vote.

I was even disappointed when i heard that cpc got up to 4000 votes in anambra! Who da hell did that!

But then i remembered all those northern army and police families.[/quote]Blahblahblah, story, story. All I know is that if in 2015, my boy Fashola is running and you come up with fake excuses like that, we will NOT accept the results. No fake 80%+ turnout, 99.63% PDP vote to grab a victory. . . you'll have to cook the books more cleverly than that. My mamma did not raise a fool.

By Ogechi Ekenanyanwu
April 18, 2011 01:34AM

An election monitoring group, Project 2011 Swift Count, has condemned the detention of some accredited observers by security forces and other groups during Saturday’s presidential election.

In an interim statement on the election, the observer group said it was also concerned that accredited observers were denied access to polling units where they were assigned to monitor and that some of its observers were arrested and detained.

“We are extremely concerned about accredited observers being denied access to polling units,” Dafe Apkedeye, Project 2011 Swift Count’s 1st Co-Chair, said.

“In several states, Project 2011 Swift Count observers were harassed and in some cases detained by security forces.

“The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the security forces must take all necessary steps to ensure accredited observers have access to polling units and collation centre.”

According to the group, the most worrisome was the situation in Warri North and Warri South LGAs in Delta State where observers of the group were detained.

“Several of our observers there were detained throughout the night by the security agencies without just cause. This action is unacceptable,”

Mr. Apkedeye said, also urging INEC, security agencies and all others involved, to as a matter of urgency do everything in their power to address this situation and prevent any similar occurrences in the future.

Project 2011 Swift Count is a joint initiative of the Federation of Muslim Women’s Association in Nigeria (FOMWAN); Justice, Development and Peace /Caritas Nigeria (JDPC), Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) and Transition Monitoring Group (TMG).

Equal access right

Speaking a press briefing at the Sheraton Hotel in Abuja yesterday, Mr.Akpedeye told journalists that for the presidential election, the group deployed more than 8,000 accredited observers to all 774 local government areas, over 7000 stationary observers at polling units and nearly 1,000 observers.

It asked the INEC to ensure that all accredited observers, not just international ones, should be allowed to move freely and to access polling units and collation centres across the country. It also recommended that security agencies should refrain from any action that will prevent accredited observers from carrying out their mandate.

http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Home/5690734-146/story.csp

@koruji: Lol. Cannot say I disagree with you. I'd like to hear what the ACNs response to the results will be, whether they accept or reject them. If the former, then I know they were bought  CPC too, will be interesting to hear their response.

@aletheia: Surely there is more you can add to this thread than the picture of the goat

Why don't you take a look at the spreadsheet and then comment.

Kobojunkie:
He has already raised his voice but I doubt much is going to come from it this time around since the majority have taken to believing the elections were free and fair this time around.

I dunno how people come to these conclusions w/o looking at the #s first, lol.

Aigbofa:
I think Buhari should ask for an investigation. I don't really care too much about him, but what is fair is fair.

At least what they call a free and fair election must be seen as such.

It would be moronic if he accepts it. I certainly hope that Buhari or the ACN challenges it. But unfortunately I'm starting to suspect that the ACN was bought off.

I think that w/o fake votes, PDP would still have won. But rather than the current 19.5 million PDP votes to 8.7 million CPC to 1.95 million ACN, more like 12 or 13 million PDP.

This is useful information to know for the purposes of 2015. A SW+North alliance can in fact break the PDP. Main thing though is to have monitors at each of the polling centers in the SE and SS, record each and challenge any suspicious #s. And if they declare fake returns like this in 2015 and our interests are actually at stake. . . refuse to accept them.

wesley80:
@ekt_bear,
Did you ever stop to imagine that probably aliens were shipped in from Niger, chad and probably a legion of underaged voters were registered to make up the huge voter numbers in some states in the North just to lend credence to the belief that the north is more populated than the south? Lets say maybe (just maybe) the financiers of the initial mass movement of aliens across the border were not willing to do same for the elections hence the low voter turnout in the North, or how else do you explain it? The south however had actual resident voters hence the high turnout. Just a theory sha.

Forget about the North stuff temporarily. . . Why is Bayelsa's turnout rate literally triple that of Ogun? Same for Imo? 85%+ voter turnout, 99% of whom voted for GEJ?

Or is the reality 40 or 50% voter turnout, and some dude stamping another 35% worth of fake votes for GEJ? The latter is what I think happened. 85% voter turnout in Bayelsa, 99% of the votes for GEJ, versus 52.43% voter turnout in Katsina, only 71% voted there for Buhari. . .

Seems very strange, don't you think?

Buhari probably isn't interested in those things. If he were, he'd have made different decisions this past fall. Very selfish and unstrategic dude.

Beautiful pictures. Kind of amazing that anything works w/o a functioning gov't.

sbeezy8:
theres the lady duplicating thumb prints and the young children voting for Buhari

it goes both way but why the fuk do you guys ekt bear aigbofa etc care? Those places were going to GEJ in the 90's pernctile anyway. Just as the almirjis voted for Buhari one cant deny it,

This election is not free or fair but who CARES. 80% of SW people didnt vote so its not a big deal to SW people like me

(tho I have fam that did support GEJ as preident it wasnt cause he was the best it was for their own personal gains.)

but it doesnt matter cause CPC and PDP had voting malpractices- thats undeniable its just that GEJ came out on top

Smh @ this post, dude. . . you are better than that

My guess at this point is that they just made up #s wholesale in the SS and SE. Double the turnout rate in those zones, all voting PDP at 99% rates makes no sense.

BTW, if any of ya'll are connected with these Nigerian media houses, please give them a link to the spreadsheet, have them look at it too.

The more eyes scrutinize these results, the better.

The more I see, the more questions I have.

Here is a spreadsheet I uploaded on Google docs, summarizing the PDP's performance in the election:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=t9noetUMsSmQOtcoi8LF7Xw&authkey=CKfYx4YG&hl=en#gid=0

Open it, look at the sheet called "PDP Analysis."

Short walkthrough:
1. Column A lists the states reported.
2. Column B the # of votes the PDP got.
3. Column C the voting # for the PDP.
4. D, total # of votes.
5. E, initial # of registered voters reported by INEC.
6. F, final # of registered voters reported by INEC.
7. G, voter turnout %ge using the first set of registered voter #s.
8. H, voter turnout %ge using the second set of registered voter #s.
9. I, PDP voting rate using the first set of registered voter #s.
10. J, PDP voting rate using the second set of registered voter #s.

Notice that I've sorted the sheet by column H, "Voter Turnout #2"

Some questions:
1) It seems that by far, Bayelsa, Imo, Abia, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, etc had the highest voter turnout. At least if we accept the #s on face value. Even Katsina only had a turnout rate of 52%. Ekiti, Oyo, Lagos were only around 30%. Why the large disparity in voter turnout?
2) Coincidentally, it seems that states in which turnout was very high, people voted for the PDP in overwhelming #s. Worst performance amongst the top 5 turnout states was Akwa Ibom, which the PDP got 94.58%. Why is this happening?
3) Even Katsina, Buhari's home state, PDP got 26%. If we believe that 99%+ voting figures are possible, why didn't Buhari get 99% in his home state, Katsina?


Anyway, the spreadsheet is fully available. Free to download it, note anything else strange you find.

Moves:
1) Buhari got 16,382 in Rivers, And am even surprised he got that much, 
2) If it was IBB the story would have been different in the SE &SS
3) When Compared to the Number of registered Voters then It is not that great.

I am sure that there exist more than 16,000 each of Hausa, Yoruba in Port Harcourt ALONE.

How on earth did he get only 16,000 votes in such a cosmopolitan city like PH, not to talk of the entire state of Rivers?

nuzo:
Methinks some of you need to take a tour down east.

I interacted with different people shortly before the election and never met any Igbo dude promising to vote for Buhari. . . at least am talking about the ones living in the S/E.

All of those you talked to said they'd vote GEJ? This isn't really about Buhari. It is more about it seems that 99 out of every 100 people in an entire state chose one person to vote for. Very strange.

Regarding the non-Igbo votes, most of them were either apathy on saturday or had their votes shared among other contestants.

Heh. Too neat an explanation.

bashr4:
challenge northern results as for the east and south south only if you are out of your mind will you beleive buhari will get votes , maybe you should ask CPC and ACN whythey where shying away from campaining in the east , or you think we are not aware of how both parties rejected eastern vice presidential candidates. they thouth the east was irrelivant so they put their bet on the SW.

Are there no Abokis who live in the SE or SS? Yoruba? Nupe? Etc? Did they not vote at all?

What of even human error? Random mistakes, someone marking A but marking B instead?

You guys are making a lot of excuses for something that intuitively is very, very weird. . . 99%+ of people in a state of millions voting for a SINGLE CANDIDATE. I.e., under 1% of voters voting for any other candidate.

Like I said. . . very strange stuff. I've seen it in Mubarak's Egypt and all these yeye dictatorships, but not in real democracies.

Plus, I'm suppose to believe it didn't happen in just one state. . . but in several. Smh.

sbeezy8:
why are you guys arguing who cares about election in the East?

he was going to win anyway

Sure, he will win. But if you allow him to win by posting clearly fraudulent #s like 99%+ of the vote somewhere, then what is to prevent him from doing so in the future? It is very shortsighted to not challenge fake results. Letting them stand means you accept them.

nuzo:
I was on ground and the massive support GEJ got from S/E was eye opening.

I didnt even think the other candidates (apart from GEJ) were going to get more than 100 votes combined together.

So you think 99% of even Igbo voters voting for GEJ seems credible? Not even one in one hundred would vote differently (I'm not saying one in 100 vote for Buhari, but just vote differently, period!) ? What then of the non-Igbo ethnic groups who live in the SE? Would they also vote at this same 99% rate for Igbos, if we temporarily accepted that it were plausible?

Obiagu1, where is that list of state by state registered voter #s? Can you link me?

bashr4:
any SS, SE person that voted buhari is out of his mind . However i agree with you guys these results are wrong , GEJ should have gotten 100% vote especially in bayels and anambra, but then since he won no need trying to investigate why CPC got any vote at all

It is almost impossible for a man to get 99%+ of the vote in any state. Jesus Christ couldn't get 99% of the vote in the Vatician. . . there are bound to be atheists, agnostics, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, etc there (I'm probably exaggerating slightly, but you get the point.)

Again, this looks like Egypt under Mubarak sort of voting results.

^-- I am not talking about the SS.

I think we can conclude that anything above 95% is fraudulent.

However, I'm also interested in comparing vote totals to voter registration for each state. Whoever cooked the books likely will leave some more patterns showing up.

Does anyone have a link to the voter registration for each state handy?

.

And for certain foolish SW folk who for some reason don't get it. . . in an election in which GEJ won, which ethnic group is crowing the most, showing the most vindictiveness? Talking the most about "punishing" the other side? Is it Ijaw? Nope.

Of course, this group crowing has zero power to actually do any of these things.

Hopefully you all will remember this going forward, who our enemies truly are. . . do not forget. I will remind you.