₦airaland Forum

[quote author=Chyz* link=topic=648868.msg8150908#msg8150908 date=1303082038]You should check out the results in the north. They were clearly rigged and in an obvious way. They have no right to complain about rigging. If anything, both CPC and PDP rigged. It is just that CPC got out rigged.[/quote]Elaborate?

^-- Looks like elections in Mubarak's Egypt, or something.

What of the turnout percentages for each of those states, compared to voter registration #s?

sbeezy8, jason, chill. GEJ has no incentive to play a vindictive game. It will only turn those who were largely indifferent to/supportive of his aspirations into enemies.

Relax, things will be shared out by the PDP equally.

I still don't see how any candidate can get 99% of the vote, even in his home state. Obama didn't get 99% of the black vote in the US. Yet GEJ will get 99% of the vote in Akwa Ibom (for example)?

Very fishy. Won't change the outcome, but doesn't pass the smell test at all. . .

As SaharaReporters revealed last night, Goodluck Jonathan, the candidate of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) is set to be announced winner of the Saturday April 16, 2011 presidential election, on the back of inflated numbers pumped into the election results from several states in the Southern region.
In Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Imo, Anambra, Cross River, Ebonyi, Abia and Bayelsa states, huge numbers have surfaced which gave Jonathan the edge to avoid a run-off election against his main opponent, Muhammad Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC).  In Akwa Ibom state, 999.9 % of voters have reportedly voted for Jonathan.  Similar margins have been reported in Bayelsa, Rivers and Abia states.
Indeed, in Bayelsa, Jonathan’s home state, he scored 107% of the votes of the initial number voters before INEC reisedd the number of voters registered there a few weeks ago.
In comments made after he voted yesterday, General Buhari observed that some air rigging (the nocturnal distribution of thumbprinted ballots by air), had occurred during the night.  He said one such consignment had had arrived in Katsina and that CPC agents had not been allowed to it before it was spirited away to Government House.
In Enugu State today, Osita Okechukwu, the gubernatorial candidate of the CPC addressed a petition to the National Chairman in which he complained of “allocation of votes” in the state and in the South East to Mr. Jonathan.
“We are  writing this petition because the result is fraught with gross electoral malpractices, total breach of the Electoral Act 2010 and did not reflect the voting on the ground: but mere allocation of votes to the People’s Democratic Party {PDP} in the midst of low turnout of Enugu State voters,” he said.
Mr. Okechukwu further stated that CPC polling agents were either chased away or not allowed in many Polling Units because their party Identification card was unlike the PDP letter of identification.   He noted that complaints made to INEC Collation officers in such places as Nsukka, Enugu North, Enugu South, Udi, Udenu, Igboeze South and North were ignored, and that the intention was “to doctor the result sheets and stuff up ballot papers with thumb printed ballot papers.”
He called for the biometric technology “which Nigeria expended N87billion on to conduct this election should be deployed to verify the validity of the ballot papers used to allocate such outrageous figures posted as votes by the good people of Enugu State and indeed South East.”

http://www.saharareporters.com/news-page/nigerias-presidential-election-jonathan-set-win-aided-southern-magic-numbers

[quote author=~Bluetooth link=topic=647732.msg8150789#msg8150789 date=1303080573]I just pray we should all be here to wish them their own goodluck in 24 years time ![/quote]I would hope to wait much less than that. Within two weeks to a month's time, I'm hoping to bump up many of these threads with an "I dey laff"

Let us wait and see, though.

[quote author=Ileke-IdI link=topic=648770.msg8150691#msg8150691 date=1303079639]And who would vote for him after he promised the SE 2015? [/quote]People promise lots of things. Question is, what leverage do you have to make 'em keep their promises? 

All in all, the crowing and triumphalism by Igbos is definitely premature. Let's wait and see how the next few weeks/months/years shake out.

What does the zoning formula say? I know that zoning is supposedly dead, but what does it say about the top 6 slots?

@mbulela: I'm not despairing. I just misunderstood what makes Nigerians tick. I now understand things a bit better.

In a way, this makes things easier for me. . . now rather than being concerned about Nigeria as a whole, I can focus just on bringing about positive change in a smaller part of it.

Who cares? It isn't by force to vote for GEJ. If you don't like that others didn't vote for him, go jump off a bridge

OAM4J:
He gave his words openly to the North many times during campaign that he will only run for a single term to complete Yaradua/GEJ ticket.

But then he is human and a Nigerian, he can change his mind and go back on his words.

I'm pretty skeptical, dude.

Guy: "We are only going to kiss and cuddle a bit, nothing more than that!"
Girl: "OK."

You know what happens next  

@OP: A lot of truth in what you say. I was overly optimistic. Perhaps in 50 or 100 years time, things will be different.

[quote author=Ileke-IdI link=topic=648770.msg8150393#msg8150393 date=1303076923]Like someone said, GEJ would likely not be campaigning come 2015. The SE region that voted massively for him are hoping on 2015.[/quote]And who told you he won't run again? Why won't he? What prevents him from doing so and winning?

People vote primarily on region/religion/ethnicity in Nigeria. No matter how good his accomplishments, Fashola will not be able to win in 2015 because he won't be able to secure a large enough fraction of core North votes.

Competency isn't enough. . . you need tribal alliances. Or the inducements that the PDP/FG machinery can provide. Fashola has neither. . . I don't think giving VP to a northerner will be enough to command their block votes.

[quote author=Ileke-IdI link=topic=648771.msg8150339#msg8150339 date=1303076564]The main reason why the SE is asking for a new state is for the equalization of the geopolitical zones. Not because it adds value or not. They're not thinking about how much it would add or subtract  from Nigeria[/quote]No, I realize that. And if every zone will get a new state for revenue purposes, then either remove Western Kogi and move it to the SW, or partition Oyo.

But Kwara must remain whole

@sbeezy8 & Ileke-Idi: What is the point of partitioning Kwara when 70-80%+ of the population of that state is Yoruba? Or Yoruba speakers? I'm against any division whatsoever of that land.

Western Kogi, sure.

Anyway, this new state stuff is sort of odd to me. Seems like it will raise administrative costs w/o adding much value. Should be reducing the # of states rather than increasing them, in my opinion. Problem is revenue formula is coupled with # of states. Why not simply decouple, then reduce the # of states?

^- I doubt Fashola contests in 2015 unless something radically changes. His best bet imo is to go into the Senate, wait for a better time.

@Ileke-IdI: Partitioning Kwara is not a good idea, in my opinion.

[quote author=EzeUche_ link=topic=648771.msg8150243#msg8150243 date=1303075677]Zoning has been thrown out.[/quote]Reference for this?

Plus, we the latest events in the SW, the whole formula needs to be thrown out. I doubt ACN will be given any position.

We shall see. I suspect that the SW will get to have their cake and eat it. . . one way or another.

Under the pdp zoning formula, is the SE supposed to get either the senate president or speaker?

Maybe naija is very different. But doesn't a candidate getting 99%+ of the vote in even his home state seem. . . weird? Fake?

hrm

99%+ voting figures in parts of the SS and SE seem a bit suspect to me. Even Obama didn't get that much of the black vote in the US.

Not that it matters. . .looks like GEJ will win anyway. But just suspicious.

^-- Interesting. They break it down by state/zone too.

Nice read!

^-- Fashola's best hope imo was for this ACN/CPC alliance to have occurred, the PDP broken, and then running for president to succeed Buhari. Since that won't happen, I'm not sure what his best bet is. Perhaps go to the senate in 2015 and bide his time for a ripe opportunity?

I'm not convinced that running over and over again is a good idea. . . after the first loss, you get branded with a 'loser' tag. And people tend not to spend their votes on people they don't think can win.

Even Buhari, had Yar'Adua not died he'd have no chance of winning.

henry101:
So you think Nigerians would vote for an inconpetent man if Fashola wants be president in 2015.
In 2015, I see Shekarau, Fashola, maybe Amechi and Chime, Ribadu maybe El-Rufai and probably GEJ fighting ot be president. Will be interesting,
Maybe Akala and Orji can try their luck, 

2015 for Fashola would be hard. No incumbency, no PDP structure to take advantage of, no block northern vote (I don't think offering VP to a northerner is enough to secure block votes.) I dunno. . . Nigerians don't really vote for pure competency. Tribal/regional considerations seem to be more important, unfortunately for Fash.

^- We shall see. I'd put the odds (as of right now) at less than 10%, personally. Things might of course change.

Sahara and Next are some of the better naija newspaper, imo (guardian and vanguard also are good.) Both seem to be pretty anti-establishment, though.

@OP: No.

When GEJs tenure ends in 2015 or 2019, likely it will go to the north. Assuming that the PDP is the dominant party at those times, of course.