₦airaland Forum

23jerryking:
Guy, I dey tell you say Brazzaville in Congo looks like a local government headquarters in my state

casualobserver:
statements like this are part of the problem i have with the influx of Ibos and their value system into yorubaland. It is a given that a man must take care of his wife and children but that money must reflect on a woman is an ibo thing. Flamboyance for flamboyance sake or to display wealth for the sake of it is an ibo thing, that you must see the wealth of an ibo man in his wife is your thing, it's not our way.

It is quite common in yoruba land for the wife to be the one with money because in yorubaland, the status of a yoruba man is in his occupation, thats why you will see yoruba men who are professionals or civil servants and their wives are business women. if you introduce a friend to a typical yoruba father, the first thing he will likely ask you is what work does your friend do or what work does his gfather do? not how much money do you have. Thats also why you will see yoruba names that refer to their occupations like Agbede (ironsmith) . Like i said it is normal in yoruba man for the wife to be the one with the moeny or richer than the husband because it is usually the women who are the traders/business women.

Hmmmmmm
You are right about this.
I always wonder why women play a huge role as breadwinners in Yorubaland..... Mothers and grandmothers always carrying a chunk of the family expenses but of recent, cracks are now showing.
Due to women somehow earning more on average, the current generation tend to be more disrespectful, more loose sexually sleeping with richer men to raise capital or sustain their business etc

May God help us because the future looks scary somehow

WriteerNg:

---

Their economies are better than ours a thousand times.

Have you even been to those countries?

In Benin Republic, it's almost like a crime to not have steady electricity.

Are you really serious their economies are better than ours?
Of what use is electricity if production and manufacturing is low. Just for household usage? to watch tvs and switch on lights?
Have you checked out Nigeria stock market capitalization? that is a pointer to which economy is more robust, has more jobs and companies.
Nigeria market cap is bigger than all 14 countries in ecowas.....I REPEAT BIGGER THAN THE WHOLEEEEE 14 COUNTRIES IN WEST AFRICA
That means if you are looking for a job.....you have a higher chance of getting it in Nigeria
If you want to set up business....you have a higher chance of market share and selling in Nigeria than the whole 14/15 ecowas countries combined.
There are more companies in Nigeria than the whole 14 countries in ecowas combined.
BRVM is a regional stock market headquartered in Abidjan, Cote D’Ivoire. It was founded in 1996 and it serves in Niger, Mali, Benin Republic, Burkina Faso, Cote D’Ivoire, Togo, Senegal, and Guinea Bissau. - This is the total 8 frech countries in west africa with $13b market cap + ghana $6b = $19b. The other countries not listed are highly negligible. Nothing tangible running in those countries.
Which means Nigeria's economy is twice as big as the whole of west african countries.
We may not like Nigeria or how it is been run but we have to appreciate her where it is due.

Obakoolex:
Well ecclesiastics 7:28 said it all.
Please never read it with a woman beside you

Ecclesiastes 7:28-29 New International Version (NIV) while I was still searching but not finding— I found one upright man among a thousand, but not one upright woman among them all. This only have I found: God created mankind upright, but they have gone in search of many schemes.”

madridguy:
Which attitude baba? Why Ade dancer no go host music festival and sing from morning till night. Deliver speech and you start singing as if he was invited as a guest artist.

shoodboi2:
We can clearly see those who fund JNIM. This was the same thing France did 12/13 years ago when it paid tens of millions of dollars to Boko Haram as ransom payment for French citizens kidnapped in Nigeria and Niger.

The strategy is always the same. Once you see all eyes are on you and you cannot fund your foot soldiers as you normally would, you encourage your foot soldiers to capture your assets. And then you pay your foot soldiers a good "ransom" to free your assets.

When people accuse you of funding terror groups, you deny it and simply claim you paid a ransom.

Hmmmmmm

Nice strategy

LordAdam16:
action and reaction are equal and opposite forces

in the US, a democrat senator is asking the military to disobey illegal orders
africa, particularly sub-Saharan africa, cannot be stuck in this eternal tailspin without any punctuation
it is impossible

if communism starts failing in china, there will be an uprising, coup, whatever you call it
russia, the west, anywhere on planet earth
if a system of governance is failing, people will seek an alternative and opportunists will leverage the dissatisfaction

we've done eight years of buhari
we do eight years of tinubu
then we do eight years of shettima
and then another eight years of a southern disaster

someday there will be a coup and everyone will be scratching their heads trying to figure out the reason when it is blatant
if you put french people in any sub-Saharan african country, there would be uprisings every month
africa's case is just so hopeless that no system will work here
not democracy. not communism. not monarchy. not military rule
revolving door of bullsh*t

now to prevent a coup, tinubu will have to be come down hard on politicos and PEPs
which will create a negative feedback loop that ironically increase the odds of a coup

-Lord

Agbalowomeri:
I tire o. It has nothing to do with ASI

As quoted -

Chief Executive of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane,
Speaking at the Parthian 2025 Economic Discourse, held in Lagos, on Thursday, he projected that stock market capitalisation will triple by 2027, highlighting the potential listing of the Dangote Refinery as a game changer.
He cited improved investor confidence, new listings, rising corporate earnings, and structural efficiencies as key drivers.
“Nigeria’s stock market capitalisation could soar from the current N91 trillion to N262 trillion in 2026, and N393 trillion in 2027.

Locotrader:
Looks like we will still have a strong bull by January

Let AsI arrive 50k first ,we go access the bull capacity.

According to Bismarck Rewane, the economist he is predicitng Ngx ASI market cap to hit 260 trillion naira in 2026 from the current 93 trillion.
That is a 150% rise from the current ASI number.
He predicts a bull.

NairaMaster1:
So being eing single guarantees sound mental health?

I believe it is single but foocking around that guarantees sound mental health to them

ZUBY77:
That's what it is everywhere in the World. The moment women begin to make money, forget it.
Before you take your wife to UK, US, Canada and EU, mke sure toh have enough plan to leave her.

Hmmmmmm
What a bitter truth

SonofElElyonRet:
1. Comment responsibly
2. How do we even know you were just a visitor?

@ bolded ...... believe whatever bro

Agbalowomeri:
Do not stigmatise mental illness

iskalamong:
That applies to Nigeria though.

You see such stocks appreciating significantly during bulls.

However, in developed markets, such companies could go bankrupt or lose 90% of their values overnight e.t.c.

They are extremely risky.

I think the reason for that is the fact that you can take short position easily and there is high liquidity.

Here (on the NGX), its all long with very little or no shorts. Hence, you might easily get away with buying them blindly (most times).

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

Yes. You are right.
Applying that strategy in foreign/US market will likely lead to disaster

iskalamong:
I closed most of my positions as I expected a correction.

However, I did not expect Oando to decline when the correction happens.

For this reason, Oando is the only stock I am holding with my full chest.

Its performance has been a shocker to me (and my portfolio).

The reasons I bought it when I was closing other positions are as follows:

1. Strong growth potential (driven by acquisitions and political moats)
2. Very cheap valuation. This combined with no 1 above is a recipe for multibagger performance.
3. Proposed equity capital raise at N50. Using banks as precedents, a rally may occur (e.g fidelity, GTCO, e.t.c. with price appreciation of more than 100% post capital raise.
4. Conversion of debt to equity plus capital raise to boost the company's balance sheet and make its book value positive.

Last last, the stock's performance rubbished my analysis

For newbies, this does not mean that analyses do not work. Instead, it shows that analysis gives you about 70% probability to be right (not an assurance)

Cheers guys

Iskalamong!

.

.

Then why still holding the stock if it has failed your fundamental analysis? The core reason you bought it since you wrote it rubished your valuation

lasisi:
. Eeyah, Na so Loco take collect for matter wey no concern am

Stray bullet

crownprince2017:
Person they understand this guy at all?
Him post they always look like he is under the influence of something while typing.

You better don't underestimate the high number of mentally unstable people in Nigeria.
Sadly, many of them are using phones and comment online.
I was shocked at the number of people well dressed, looking normal and taking anti-depressant drugs when I paid someone a visit at a federal psychiatric hospital

awesomeJ:
Thank God for Atlass and Morgan, this sort of downtime would have cost me more than double the national minmum wage.

talking about minimu m wage though it's interesting to find that even though igerian Naira and South Korean Won are worth exactly thesame, minimum wage in Sout Korean is over 2million per month compared to 70k in Nigeria.

Interesting and insightful

sboga:
by broda dey r Ba starts
dem suppose change d M to B
N to S
and S to T

I think you need to take your drugs, seems you skipped it

nosa2:
Not necessarily. Someone could be selling strategically but that's not manipulation

I want to believe the market makers now have material non-public information to reprice the stock.

Mankind2024:
@crownprince,
I truly wish I could just whisper the names and save everyone the work, but that would go against everything I stand for here.
I am a stubborn, boring, long-term investor who spends weeks (sometimes months) digging through old annual reports, contract footprints, share-count structures, and negative-equity balance sheets that make most people run away. My edge is exactly that homework + the patience to wait until the market finally wakes up years later.
If I start mentioning specific names now, two things will happen:
Many will buy tomorrow without doing their own work (and blame me when Mr. Market decides to sleep one extra year).
My own conviction gets diluted the day it becomes a crowd trade.
So please, forgive me – I will never hand out tickers like evangelism tracts.
What I can promise is this: the next NCR(s) are already on the NGX today.
They have:
Market caps below N15 billion
Prices between N4 and N18
Very low daily volume (sometimes less than 100,000 units)
Plenty of red headlines and negative equity
Tiny share counts (under 1 billion units, preferably under 500 million)
Businesses that Nigeria will still need in 2030 even if profits stay flat for years
That’s more than enough breadcrumbs.
Anyone willing to open the NGX website, sort by market cap or volume, and read a few annual reports will stumble on them in less than one weekend.
To everyone who has sent emails/DMs: I genuinely appreciate the love, but the email tied to this moniker was deleted the same day I created the account (old habit – I hate inbox clutter and I never keep disposable emails). So I can’t see or reply to anything sent there. Apologies.
Do your own digging, buy only what you understand and can sleep with for 5–7 years, and may we all live long enough to tell our own 20x stories one day.
God bless you all.

This is more than enough to go to work.

Kudos

Mankind2024:
My brother, the NSEMPA no1 impatient and arrogant trader, thank you for the free publicity and for giving me the opportunity to clear the air once and for all.

1. “Negative shareholders’ funds and a failing business model”
- In Feb 2021, NCR had negative equity of about –N1.2bn. That’s public information.
- What is also public information is that the company had over N8bn in installed base contracts (maintenance of ATMs, POS, and self-service kiosks across banks and oil companies), contracts that renew every 3–5 years almost automatically.
- I saw a situation where the market was pricing a 130-year-old technology franchise with monopoly-like service contracts as if it was heading for liquidation… for N180m market cap. That’s not a “failing business model.” That’s the bargain of the decade.

2. “Why only N170k? That doesn’t show confidence.”
- In 2021 I was a salary earner, struggling with life and family responsibilities. N170k was part of my liquid net worth at the time — exactly the position size I allocate to my highest-conviction ideas when they are this depressed.
- Confidence is not measured by how much you bet when something is already obvious to everyone. Real conviction is measured by how much you are willing to allocate when literally nobody else sees it.
- Today that N170k is worth N3.635 million. I sleep very well with that “small” conviction.

3. “You only got 20x in 4–5 years while people who bought at the 52-week low got 18x in one year — so it’s luck.”
- People who bought at the 52-week low in early 2025 paid between N4 and N6. They are enjoying the ride now, and I’m genuinely happy for them.
- But let’s be honest: in early 2025, the turnaround was already visible to anyone who cared to read the 2024 results and the H1 2025 numbers. The stock had started moving. It was no longer invisible.
- I bought when the company was still bleeding, when the chart was flat for four years, when the average daily volume was sometimes 200 shares, when people on this same forum were calling it “dead money, Iliquid stock.”
- That’s not luck. That’s buying when fear was maximum and facts were minimum.

4. “Paint the full picture so people can learn.”
- The full picture is simple: I looked for a company with:
(a) a moat (service contracts that competitors can’t easily take),
(b) a tiny market cap relative to its installed base,
(c) a share count that made a future re-rating mathematically explosive (108 million units), and
(d) zero chance of permanent capital loss because the business would still be needed even if it crawled along for another decade.
- I didn’t need 2025 results to see that. Everything I needed was already there in 2021 for anyone willing to read beyond the headline loss.

Finally, I have never claimed to be a genius like you. I just refused to complicate what is painfully simple: buy great (or decent) businesses when nobody wants them, do nothing, and let time work.

If waiting 4–5 years for 20x (so far) while collecting zero dividends and watching red headlines every quarter is “luck,” then I pray every member of this forum continues to enjoy such terrible luck.

To everyone else reading: the next NCR is already on the NGX today — trading at N5–N15, negative equity, zero volume, and plenty of people calling it trash.
You don’t need luck. You only need the stomach to be early and the patience to be quiet.

God bless you all.
And thank you again, the arrogant trader, for bumping my post to the top. Much appreciated. 🙏🏾

Well, just took my time to read this.

Nice analysis mankind

awesomeJ:
Even if 170k was all you had in 2021, why haven't you been adding more over the past 5 years?

It doesn't seem like you really believed in the company as much as you're trying to paint.

It looks more like you were stuck for 5 years and finally got lucky.

That's just my opinion though.


Now when nosa2 was saying people shouldn't quote figures, hoe could we have corrected this narrative if we simply thought he made 2000%


Seeing that he only put in 170k helps see that it isn't likely that he believed much in the business as much as he tries to convey.

I think he has a gambling account aside his fundamentally sound stock account.
So he invest let's say 200k per stock on shitty stocks and wait.
In 5 years, 2 will rise 1000% giving 4m while 3 will perform poorly, he only loses 600k or less if they badly

Goodenoch:
1. Did you actually watch/listen to that program beyond the headline? Because if it is this one, you'll have seen that the vast majority of the clients those Kenyan writers work for are actually foreigners, many from the UK, and this has been the case for decades so it has nothing to do with your 'low quality recent migrants.' Unless it's another program/report, anyway, in which case can you kindly share it?

https://theworld.org/stories/2020/01/24/kenya-large-market-1-billion-global-contract-cheating-industry
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-58465189
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct1xzx

2. Has it ever crossed your mind that how you write and engage with people depicts very clearly that you are a prime example of the riff-raff you speak of so much?

Small thing and you're using slurs and playground insults, accusing people of being unintelligent and whatnot. I'm sure your response will be that you are merely frank, direct etc a la Badenough but I assure you it is possible to be all those things without sounding like you're arguing at a beer parlor.

I know you claim to work at a university so I'd suggest you show your posts like this last one to someone educated there and ask whether they think you are a riff-raff based on how you sound. I'm not a gambling man but that's one bet I would make an exception for.

Omohh...too much gbas-gbos on this thread.
I am really enjoying the dramas

christejames:


I thought my ronu brothers said Lagos is the largest city in the world after New York City?




Oops, Lagos is not even to the level of Luanda, Abidjan, Nairobi, Cairo, Johannesburg or even Marrakech in Africa

Lol

Comments we read online sha.
Which of Luanda? The one I know or been to?

Looking at the year-to-date of ASI, there is a believe by some experts that major indexes like S & P 500, ASI etc rises and bottoms with Astronomical cycles like the Luna cycle ( full and new moon). The moon average 28 days cycle.
It is a short term cycle for short term trades
In other words, Indexes/stocks have a way of reacting and responding to the Luna cycle by rising and falling on new and full moons.
More research can be carried out by individual equity analyst.

ASI performance from 2014 to 2025 using the 4 years presidential election cycle.

Pre-election year (pink) - 2014, 2018, 2022 - ASI down tredn 2, neutral 1
Election year (green) - 2015, 2019, 2023 - 2 down, 1 up. 70% down, 30% up
Post election year (yellow) - 2016, 2020, 2024 - 2 neutral, 1 up. 70% neutral, 30% up
2 years after election (blue) - 2017, 2021,2025 - 3 up. 100% up and has always been the best years in ASI so far.
I couldn't do more back teasting because tradingview on showed ASI histroy up till 2014. I will have to check up other platforms that have more histroy unless ASI histroy started in 2014.

Raalsalghul:
My big bro, just join the queue and accept whatever tag they give you.

Ok oooo Ngwanu

Raalsalghul:
I've never seen a set of immigrants that's as derided as the Boris wave.

On one hand, you have government calling you 'low skilled' with 'micky mouse' degrees and the other hand we have other set of immigrants calling you 'riff raffs.'

Talk about a double whammy.

Kilawa feshe bayi nitori Olohun we the intending immigrants?

ositadima1:
One of my trend-following models is signalling a buy on Cadbury. I’m not sure whether to trust it, will it give me January survival money after a detty December? Lol. Some people are even saying the NGX is disgraced.

Apart from the popular indicators like MA and ADX, which trend following indicator are you using again that has a lesser lagging time?

ositadima1:
Market Fragility Score for the Week Ended.

Do you have an app or excel for this? i think i like it