₦airaland Forum

iskalamong:
I closed most of my positions as I expected a correction.

However, I did not expect Oando to decline when the correction happens.

For this reason, Oando is the only stock I am holding with my full chest.

Its performance has been a shocker to me (and my portfolio).

The reasons I bought it when I was closing other positions are as follows:

1. Strong growth potential (driven by acquisitions and political moats)
2. Very cheap valuation. This combined with no 1 above is a recipe for multibagger performance.
3. Proposed equity capital raise at N50. Using banks as precedents, a rally may occur (e.g fidelity, GTCO, e.t.c. with price appreciation of more than 100% post capital raise.
4. Conversion of debt to equity plus capital raise to boost the company's balance sheet and make its book value positive.

Last last, the stock's performance rubbished my analysis

For newbies, this does not mean that analyses do not work. Instead, it shows that analysis gives you about 70% probability to be right (not an assurance)

Cheers guys

Iskalamong!

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Then why still holding the stock if it has failed your fundamental analysis? The core reason you bought it since you wrote it rubished your valuation

lasisi:
. Eeyah, Na so Loco take collect for matter wey no concern am

Stray bullet

crownprince2017:
Person they understand this guy at all?
Him post they always look like he is under the influence of something while typing.

You better don't underestimate the high number of mentally unstable people in Nigeria.
Sadly, many of them are using phones and comment online.
I was shocked at the number of people well dressed, looking normal and taking anti-depressant drugs when I paid someone a visit at a federal psychiatric hospital

awesomeJ:
Thank God for Atlass and Morgan, this sort of downtime would have cost me more than double the national minmum wage.

talking about minimu m wage though it's interesting to find that even though igerian Naira and South Korean Won are worth exactly thesame, minimum wage in Sout Korean is over 2million per month compared to 70k in Nigeria.

Interesting and insightful

sboga:
by broda dey r Ba starts
dem suppose change d M to B
N to S
and S to T

I think you need to take your drugs, seems you skipped it

nosa2:
Not necessarily. Someone could be selling strategically but that's not manipulation

I want to believe the market makers now have material non-public information to reprice the stock.

Mankind2024:
@crownprince,
I truly wish I could just whisper the names and save everyone the work, but that would go against everything I stand for here.
I am a stubborn, boring, long-term investor who spends weeks (sometimes months) digging through old annual reports, contract footprints, share-count structures, and negative-equity balance sheets that make most people run away. My edge is exactly that homework + the patience to wait until the market finally wakes up years later.
If I start mentioning specific names now, two things will happen:
Many will buy tomorrow without doing their own work (and blame me when Mr. Market decides to sleep one extra year).
My own conviction gets diluted the day it becomes a crowd trade.
So please, forgive me – I will never hand out tickers like evangelism tracts.
What I can promise is this: the next NCR(s) are already on the NGX today.
They have:
Market caps below N15 billion
Prices between N4 and N18
Very low daily volume (sometimes less than 100,000 units)
Plenty of red headlines and negative equity
Tiny share counts (under 1 billion units, preferably under 500 million)
Businesses that Nigeria will still need in 2030 even if profits stay flat for years
That’s more than enough breadcrumbs.
Anyone willing to open the NGX website, sort by market cap or volume, and read a few annual reports will stumble on them in less than one weekend.
To everyone who has sent emails/DMs: I genuinely appreciate the love, but the email tied to this moniker was deleted the same day I created the account (old habit – I hate inbox clutter and I never keep disposable emails). So I can’t see or reply to anything sent there. Apologies.
Do your own digging, buy only what you understand and can sleep with for 5–7 years, and may we all live long enough to tell our own 20x stories one day.
God bless you all.

This is more than enough to go to work.

Kudos

Mankind2024:
My brother, the NSEMPA no1 impatient and arrogant trader, thank you for the free publicity and for giving me the opportunity to clear the air once and for all.

1. “Negative shareholders’ funds and a failing business model”
- In Feb 2021, NCR had negative equity of about –N1.2bn. That’s public information.
- What is also public information is that the company had over N8bn in installed base contracts (maintenance of ATMs, POS, and self-service kiosks across banks and oil companies), contracts that renew every 3–5 years almost automatically.
- I saw a situation where the market was pricing a 130-year-old technology franchise with monopoly-like service contracts as if it was heading for liquidation… for N180m market cap. That’s not a “failing business model.” That’s the bargain of the decade.

2. “Why only N170k? That doesn’t show confidence.”
- In 2021 I was a salary earner, struggling with life and family responsibilities. N170k was part of my liquid net worth at the time — exactly the position size I allocate to my highest-conviction ideas when they are this depressed.
- Confidence is not measured by how much you bet when something is already obvious to everyone. Real conviction is measured by how much you are willing to allocate when literally nobody else sees it.
- Today that N170k is worth N3.635 million. I sleep very well with that “small” conviction.

3. “You only got 20x in 4–5 years while people who bought at the 52-week low got 18x in one year — so it’s luck.”
- People who bought at the 52-week low in early 2025 paid between N4 and N6. They are enjoying the ride now, and I’m genuinely happy for them.
- But let’s be honest: in early 2025, the turnaround was already visible to anyone who cared to read the 2024 results and the H1 2025 numbers. The stock had started moving. It was no longer invisible.
- I bought when the company was still bleeding, when the chart was flat for four years, when the average daily volume was sometimes 200 shares, when people on this same forum were calling it “dead money, Iliquid stock.”
- That’s not luck. That’s buying when fear was maximum and facts were minimum.

4. “Paint the full picture so people can learn.”
- The full picture is simple: I looked for a company with:
(a) a moat (service contracts that competitors can’t easily take),
(b) a tiny market cap relative to its installed base,
(c) a share count that made a future re-rating mathematically explosive (108 million units), and
(d) zero chance of permanent capital loss because the business would still be needed even if it crawled along for another decade.
- I didn’t need 2025 results to see that. Everything I needed was already there in 2021 for anyone willing to read beyond the headline loss.

Finally, I have never claimed to be a genius like you. I just refused to complicate what is painfully simple: buy great (or decent) businesses when nobody wants them, do nothing, and let time work.

If waiting 4–5 years for 20x (so far) while collecting zero dividends and watching red headlines every quarter is “luck,” then I pray every member of this forum continues to enjoy such terrible luck.

To everyone else reading: the next NCR is already on the NGX today — trading at N5–N15, negative equity, zero volume, and plenty of people calling it trash.
You don’t need luck. You only need the stomach to be early and the patience to be quiet.

God bless you all.
And thank you again, the arrogant trader, for bumping my post to the top. Much appreciated. 🙏🏾

Well, just took my time to read this.

Nice analysis mankind

awesomeJ:
Even if 170k was all you had in 2021, why haven't you been adding more over the past 5 years?

It doesn't seem like you really believed in the company as much as you're trying to paint.

It looks more like you were stuck for 5 years and finally got lucky.

That's just my opinion though.


Now when nosa2 was saying people shouldn't quote figures, hoe could we have corrected this narrative if we simply thought he made 2000%


Seeing that he only put in 170k helps see that it isn't likely that he believed much in the business as much as he tries to convey.

I think he has a gambling account aside his fundamentally sound stock account.
So he invest let's say 200k per stock on shitty stocks and wait.
In 5 years, 2 will rise 1000% giving 4m while 3 will perform poorly, he only loses 600k or less if they badly

Goodenoch:
1. Did you actually watch/listen to that program beyond the headline? Because if it is this one, you'll have seen that the vast majority of the clients those Kenyan writers work for are actually foreigners, many from the UK, and this has been the case for decades so it has nothing to do with your 'low quality recent migrants.' Unless it's another program/report, anyway, in which case can you kindly share it?

https://theworld.org/stories/2020/01/24/kenya-large-market-1-billion-global-contract-cheating-industry
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-58465189
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct1xzx

2. Has it ever crossed your mind that how you write and engage with people depicts very clearly that you are a prime example of the riff-raff you speak of so much?

Small thing and you're using slurs and playground insults, accusing people of being unintelligent and whatnot. I'm sure your response will be that you are merely frank, direct etc a la Badenough but I assure you it is possible to be all those things without sounding like you're arguing at a beer parlor.

I know you claim to work at a university so I'd suggest you show your posts like this last one to someone educated there and ask whether they think you are a riff-raff based on how you sound. I'm not a gambling man but that's one bet I would make an exception for.

Omohh...too much gbas-gbos on this thread.
I am really enjoying the dramas

christejames:


I thought my ronu brothers said Lagos is the largest city in the world after New York City?




Oops, Lagos is not even to the level of Luanda, Abidjan, Nairobi, Cairo, Johannesburg or even Marrakech in Africa

Lol

Comments we read online sha.
Which of Luanda? The one I know or been to?

Looking at the year-to-date of ASI, there is a believe by some experts that major indexes like S & P 500, ASI etc rises and bottoms with Astronomical cycles like the Luna cycle ( full and new moon). The moon average 28 days cycle.
It is a short term cycle for short term trades
In other words, Indexes/stocks have a way of reacting and responding to the Luna cycle by rising and falling on new and full moons.
More research can be carried out by individual equity analyst.

ASI performance from 2014 to 2025 using the 4 years presidential election cycle.

Pre-election year (pink) - 2014, 2018, 2022 - ASI down tredn 2, neutral 1
Election year (green) - 2015, 2019, 2023 - 2 down, 1 up. 70% down, 30% up
Post election year (yellow) - 2016, 2020, 2024 - 2 neutral, 1 up. 70% neutral, 30% up
2 years after election (blue) - 2017, 2021,2025 - 3 up. 100% up and has always been the best years in ASI so far.
I couldn't do more back teasting because tradingview on showed ASI histroy up till 2014. I will have to check up other platforms that have more histroy unless ASI histroy started in 2014.

Raalsalghul:
My big bro, just join the queue and accept whatever tag they give you.

Ok oooo Ngwanu

Raalsalghul:
I've never seen a set of immigrants that's as derided as the Boris wave.

On one hand, you have government calling you 'low skilled' with 'micky mouse' degrees and the other hand we have other set of immigrants calling you 'riff raffs.'

Talk about a double whammy.

Kilawa feshe bayi nitori Olohun we the intending immigrants?

ositadima1:
One of my trend-following models is signalling a buy on Cadbury. I’m not sure whether to trust it, will it give me January survival money after a detty December? Lol. Some people are even saying the NGX is disgraced.

Apart from the popular indicators like MA and ADX, which trend following indicator are you using again that has a lesser lagging time?

ositadima1:
Market Fragility Score for the Week Ended.

Do you have an app or excel for this? i think i like it

WriteerNg:
⚡Guinea-Bissau:

ECOWAS suspended the country’s membership after a general was sworn in as transitional president following this week’s military coup.

With the rate at which ECOWAS is suspending members, it may likely shrink to just 3 members in the next 5 years from previous 15 countries

ppogba:
They are the closest next of kin.
I remember being attended to by a woman who had a bad night with her husband and also man-handled by a Danfo conductor on her way to the office the day I was in their office.

pansophist:
They probably treated him wrong.

Most families are dysfunctional. Most families have not been to a therapist, and make effort to purge out unhealthy patterns.

It’s very difficult for a person to cut off with their biological families, and men typically do that when they create their own family.

Lots of dysfunction in families are revealed during adulthood, since the parents will take the backseat and the children will continue from there.

How the siblings will relate with each other especially with the differences in financial status, educational level, life challenges and past resentment will depend on the love they have for each other.


Since the siblings are adults with agency, they will iron out their past resentment which might lead to a permanent breakdown of the relationship.

In many cases, it is parents that are the glue to sibling relationships. Without a present parent, most siblings ain’t fan of each other.

And the more successful a sibling is, the more likely he would be the target of the others who ain’t successful, hence, a pressing need for the successful one to just cut off.

This is probably what’s going on here.

Gbam!!!

folake4u:
With due respect to your age, would you advice your own son to experience prostitutes before he learns how to court a lady?

Given the option between masturbation and prostitutes, Prostitute is a lesser evil even though both are bad.

ZUBY77:
Na you get time to reply that thing.
Always promoting disaster.
If you want to cheat as a woman, stay in your papa house.

Exactly.
No one says you should not cheat or sleep around, just pay your own DAMN bills by staying alone.
People hardly care abot Ladies who stay alone and bring different men home since they pay their own bills but people will start talking and angry if you are under a man hustling and you are sleeping around.
SO you have enough time to bang yet not enough time to hustle and assist your man/home.....that is a very very lazy woman.
Most people don't know the gravity of women's action until that action is been done by a man, then all of a sudden they will all find their voices and start throwing insults up and down.
Let's reverse it -
What will be the thread's reaction if a woman opens a thread claiming to have been feeding the jobless man/husband and family, gives the man her monthly salary that they plan how to spend it, the man drives the car she bought and even use it to carry other women home when she is not around.
The whole nairaland will catch fire....insults and more insults and curses on the man and men in general

pansophist:
I stumble on the article by businessDay,

https://businessday.ng/life-arts/article/from-n200000-to-n2-3bn-how-amoke-oge-cooked-her-way-to-the-top/

basically it is about a restaurant that I visits sometimes in Lagos. This lady sells amala and other local foods and she has grossed over 2.3 billion naira naira on Chowdeck delivery platform. Not million o, but BILLIONSSSS>

Another one mentioned in the article is KoredeSpaghetti in Yaba. He also grossed billon naira sales. BILLIONS

Mind you, these figures are only transactions carried out on delivery platform, and does not include walk-in customers. Now lets that figure sink in for a moment.

Their success story was from grass to grace. Started with borrowed funds, and was patience enough to grow it and hard work and consistency. Success stories like this can be seen in different area from fashion to poultry, farming etc.

When you see figures like these, it becomes clear that some folks are lazy. They rather beg than throw off shame and ego to go hustle.

So if you say your brother is in his 30's with no skills and nothing, then can you really feel sorry for him?

Panso, i once had this mentality but as time goes on and i observe and experience more, i have been a little bit soft with myself, my brothers and life in general.
There will always be outliers in every society and they are not the norm.
There will always be occassional grace to grace stories but this won't be the norm for the general society.
We have to agree that some if not most people just want to graduate and earn a decent living and not be millionaires and billionaires.
They just want to earn enough to have a car, a decent apartment, some savings, occasional vacation once a while and that's all.
Moreover, the african enviromental condition and climate is too rigid, traditional and homono-directional - it is eaither you are a graduate and earning meagre salary or you are illitrate doing business mostly in the market.
It is not a robust enviroment where most people can feed and live with their skills or passion e.g swimming, football, wrestling, boxing, car race/formula-1, javelin etc
We all don't have to go to school to earn nor know a politician to get a job. It is too stiffening. Reason why i have been very soft on my brothers lately.
What are most japa people doing differently from those at home? Nothing, absolutely nothing - cleaners, maids, bumbum cleaners etc yet come home to live a decent life - build duplex, drive good cars and go on vacations etc

emmanuelewumi:
You pay at least the interest every quarter, United Capital is semi annual

Okay, i think i prefer the ucap own

SonofElElyonRet:
Wow. 27% per annum interest. You na strong man o.
Think current Ellah shareholders would've preferred discounted price via rights issue which Chuka Mordi refused to accede to.. you shareholders at Presco got rights issue

@ bolded...why are you scared of 27%?
In real sense, you are not paying back 27% because your collateral which is your invested capital is still giving you an average interest of 15-16% per annum. It is not as if your invested capital is not working for you.
So minus 16 from 27 leaves you with 11% loan interest per year. I don't know where you can get a cheaper loan in Nigeria than this except Cooperative society which i am in but the loan and repayment is very rigid - paying back monthly, need a guarantor among cooperators etc
If you reduce the loan you are collecting to 50% of your capital with them, you are literarily getting a loan with zero interest.

emmanuelewumi:
I don't think the insiders will buy the offer, most of the current shareholders are not buying, but are waiting for the standby investors.

My Presco right is over N20 million, I have money for part of the right and had to get a loan of N8 million for the balance.

Yet to see a shareholder of Ellah who got a loan to buy the public offer

Is FDH margin loans quarterly payment ? unlike ucap that is 6 months?

KingDashx:
Naso my guy see him babe for xvideos.. baba dey cry like person wey dem sentence to sokoto maximum prison lol

Anytime we dey with am I go just dey play the video for am 🤣🤣

nosa2:
How rich a community is determines how economically relevant the members of that community are. I saw somewhere that more people were killed in Sudan in one week of that war than were killed in the entire Gaza war, but because the people of Sudan are economically irrelevant in the world there was no outrage.

America doesn't give a hoot about christian lives in Nigeria. They are thinking long term and they realise that it is better to kill this crisis now rather than watch Northern Nigeria turn to another Afghanistan. If Boko Haram were blowing up oil pipelines trust me Nigeria would have found a solution since. But as things stand right now a bunch of poor people are killing another bunch of poor people.

I totally agree with you.
All men are not born equal.
There are those who when they die, kings/presidents would come and guard cross their swords of honour while moving the corpse and there are those who when they die, would be buried in shallow graves like dead goats.

pansophist:
.

It is not about de-marketing, but about infrastructures, safety, ease of travel, visa restrictions, security, tourist attractions, low corruptions, value for money etc.

For example last year, I flew from Stockholm (Sweden) to Marrakesh (Morocco) for 50 dollars return ticket with Ryanair. The direct flight was over 5 hours one way. Now can you fly from Lagos to Abuja which is about an hour for 50 dollars?

For about 30 usd a night, i stayed in a very modern apartment in the heart of Marrakesh, and a fine dining cost even less than you get in Lagos Island. That is why Europeans and westerners troop in daily.

When Nigeria ditch corruption and makes the country liveable, people will come.

And this is my headache with africa.

How can a continent be so poor yet so expensive.
A one-way flight from lagos to luanda is nothing less than $500 for a 2 and half hour flight and to & fro is $1,000.
The same morocco you booked for $50 from sweden for 5 hours flight is the same i booked to go and watch african cup of nation and direct flight is around same time but i paid $1,200 to and fro.
So tell me how tourism will flourish when logistic within the continent is damn expensive.
I love traveling alot, i love vacation and holiday but i can hardly afford it despite earning well because it is damn expensive and doesn't make much sense doing it.
It is far easier to spend $200 on vacation - flight, hotel and other activities than spending over $1,000 on it.
Even your conscience won't let you rest that despite all the family members around you suffering, projects to do like building, na this kind money you dey go waste for holidaying

Gerrard59:
Thank you for that insight, which is very interesting and an eye-opener. We learn daily.

Fascinating stuff! Walai! I pray for long life o. I would publish papers like mad!!!!!!

franvincoop:
My guy you get energy ooo, e dey like na ogbono soup and eba u chop dis evening.
If u like argue from now till Jonathan return to Aso Rock, kobo no go gree, na she be Lt. Yerima for "those" other women.

merits:
lol...... menopause is about to sign MOU with this one.

Chaii... You have a bad mouth.
Signing memorandum of understanding with menopause