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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 12:23pm On Jan 17, 2025
NettyNelly:
Can you kindly share or Unpack how you use this Justified PE, Sir. Use any example you are very comfortable with
Understand how to calculate justified P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio using these fundamental factors.

The justified P/E ratio is a fundamental valuation metric that helps determine if a stock is fairly valued based on its growth prospects and returns. Here's how it works:

Let's use a company with these characteristics:
- Return on Equity (ROE) = 15%
- Expected Growth Rate = 8%
- Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) = 12%
- Risk-free rate = 4%
- Equity Risk Premium = 6% (market standard)

The calculation involves several steps:

1. Cost of Equity Calculation:
- Cost of Equity = Risk-free rate + Equity Risk Premium
- In our example: 4% + 6% = 10%

2. Retention Ratio:
- This is how much the company needs to retain to achieve its growth
- Retention Ratio = Growth Rate / ROE
- In our example: 8% / 15% = 53.3%

3. Payout Ratio:
- This is what's left for shareholders
- Payout Ratio = 1 - Retention Ratio
- In our example: 1 - 0.533 = 46.7%

4. Value Spread:
- This shows how much value the company creates above its cost of capital
- Value Spread = ROIC - Cost of Equity
- In our example: 12% - 10% = 2%

5. Final Justified P/E Formula:
```
Justified P/E = Payout Ratio × (1 + Growth Rate) / (Cost of Equity - Growth Rate)
```

Using our numbers:
```
Justified P/E = 0.467 × (1 + 0.08) / (0.10 - 0.08)
= 0.467 × 1.08 / 0.02
= 25.2
```

This means:
- The company's stock can justify trading at 25.2 times earnings
- If the actual P/E is below 25.2, the stock might be undervalued
- If the actual P/E is above 25.2, the stock might be overvalued

The higher justified P/E in this case is supported by:
- Healthy ROE (15%)
- Sustainable growth rate (8%)
- Positive value spread (2%)
- Reasonable payout ratio (46.7%)

As copied from Claudia
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 12:14pm On Jan 17, 2025
Sunrisepebble:
I think you can ignore their forecasts, its usually very conservative. I checked their previous 2024 forecast with some of the results and they have massively outperformed each and every one. I think they can make atlas a N20 EPS for Q4.
That will make eps of around #100
Anyway, I don't feel comfortable with the stock and other stocks in the industry as benchmark - Capoil, Eterna, Conoil, MRS.
They all have low profit margin which speaks volumes about that sector - petroleum and lubricant selling and distribution
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 9:24am On Jan 17, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
Total Energy should make EPS of about N120 in 2024, don't be surprised if the stock price gets close to N1000
Total 9M/24 eps is #80.8, PAT is 27.4b
Q4/24 PAT forecast is 5.7b, so eps will be #16.8
FYI 2024 eps will be #97.6.
Average 5 years P/E is 7.4
Therefore, I see a price of #722
That is a %7.8 upside to the current price of 670
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 8:42am On Jan 17, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
Total Energy should make EPS of about N120 in 2024, don't be surprised if the stock price gets close to N1000
.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 8:40pm On Jan 15, 2025
Ades1:
Bros, can you please drop a similar analysis for TOTAL? 2025 is the year of portfolio consolidation, Trying to reduce all holding to 10-12.
I will check it and get back by Tuesday bro
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 8:39pm On Jan 15, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
Emmadet will definitely do a better and an indepth analysis.

I love short cuts
grin grin grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 10:52am On Jan 15, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
2025 forecast for the Oil Plantation in Ghana

Revenue GHC 752 million (N78 billion)
Gross profit GHC 377 million (N39 billion)
Operating profit GHC 376 million (N29 billion)


2025 forecast for Presco.
Revenue grew at a compounded annualized growth rate of 52% from 2019 to date, it actually grew by 88% between 2023 and 2024. For the purpose of this forecast I will use 40% revenue growth,.
Gross margin for 2024 was 76% but I will use 70%, Operating margin for 2024 was 62.5% but I will use 55%

Revenue N224 billion
Gross profit N157 billion
Operating profit N123 billion.

Combined 2025 Operating profit of Presco and that of the business in Ghana will be
N123 billion+N 29 billion = N152 billion which is a conservative estimate

Presco currently has a debt of N58 billion the corporate bond will increase it to N158 billion. The total debt will about the same value with the estimated operating profit for 2025

With this there is a very high probability that the corporate bond will be liquidated between 3 and 4 years
Thanks for the breakdown.
With this calculation, I will add more shares of presco
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 5:29am On Jan 15, 2025
NettyNelly:
I did it with Microsoft Excel. Was once a Graphic Designer and a Data Analyst
Ohhh, I see.
Nice one
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 9:26pm On Jan 14, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
Will share my thoughts on why it should not sell for less than N800 by the end of August 2025
#800 or #80?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 8:30pm On Jan 14, 2025
thesilentone:
Technical analysis for BETAGLASS:

Weeklies:
Resistance 67
Major Resistance: 75.40
Above all relevant MAs
MAs rising
Volume spike in December
Significant changes of board members including new CEO (Catalyst might be earnings results like NAHCO?)

Negatives
Lack of Liquidity is an issue.
Volume increase not commensurate with price increase
Breakout already happened - pullback necessary for best entry
No insider trading

Verdict: Imperative that it closes above 67 for trend confirmation. A pullback after this, a digestion and then a push for 75.40 would be ideal. Volume needs to be significantly improved.

Not on my radar.
Nice one
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 8:28pm On Jan 14, 2025
NettyNelly:
Since my thesis is that the market has yet to recognize the company's recently improved earnings, I chose to value the stock purely from an earnings perspective, based on how much the market has historically paid for such earnings.


Beta Glass reported an improved EPS of ₦2.4, ₦4.78, and ₦6.68 in Q1, Q2, and Q3 2024, respectively. This sums up to a 9-month EPS of ₦13.86. I forecast a full-year (FY) annualized EPS of ₦18.46, which assumes the company will earn an EPS of ₦4.6 in Q4. At the Current ₦ 49 share price, this projection translates to a forward P/E ratio of 2.65, which is remarkably low for a company with a 5-year average P/E of 5.

If we multiply the average P/E of 5 by our forecasted FY EPS of ₦18.46, we arrive at a target price of ₦92, representing an 88% upside from the current price of ₦49 per share.

Alternatively, if we take a more conservative approach and assume the company will earn just ₦2 in Q4, the FY EPS would be ₦15.86. Multiplying the same average P/E of 5 yields a target price of ₦79, representing a 62% upside from the current price of ₦49.

My assumption of ₦2 EPS for Q4 2024 is highly conservative. Post-COVID, the only instance where the company earned less than c.₦2 was in Q3 2022, with an EPS of ₦1.46. Apart from that, the business has consistently earned at least ₦2 per share over the last 16 quarters. I believe my target price would be met as the market reprices to 5x earnings or more on the back of strong full-year results, that it is yet to recognize.



Below is a chart I created to illustrate the market doesn't reflect current earnings.
Nice breakdown.
Do you have a software for the chart you created?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 7:52pm On Jan 14, 2025
chidiebere1999:
Happy Sunday, I have done some technical analysis on BETA GLASS and I believe that the stock price can rally to as high as 105. Below is my analysis. Does anyone have any criticisms
It will get there, probably in a year or two provided it sustains the current growth
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 7:43pm On Jan 14, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
Nahco

Revenue growth

2019 N9.9 billion
2020 7.1 billion
2021 N10.2 billion
2022 N16.7 billion
2023 N28.4 billion
2024 N42 billion ( forecast based on N33.9 billion achieved in Q3 2024)



PAT growth

2019 N718 million
2020 N302 million
2021 N771 million
2022 N2.7 billion
2023 N5.5 billion
2024 N12.2 billion ( forecast based on N9.17 billion achieved in Q3 2024)


Shareholders fund growth

2019 N6.6 billion
2020 N6.4 billion
2021 N7 billion
2022 N9 billion
2023 N12.1 billion
2024 N16.3 billion



Return on Equity growth

2019 11%
2020 5%
2021 11%
2022 30%
2023 45%
2024 73% ( forecast based on Q3 2024 accounts)


Net profit margin growth

2019 7%
2020 4%
2021 7.5%
2022 16%
2023 19.5%
2024 29%.

When return on equity is growing and margin is improving, you should be sure of bumper harvest
Reason why i had to take the ucee loan to buy more because waiting to get cash to do that in 2/3 months may be kinda late
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 9:54am On Jan 14, 2025
bastardson:
No one is saying anything about Ellah Lakes.. All so quiet about it.
.....Continued .....
What is the chances of a bear base or bull occurring?
From my observation, i will give a bear case 55%, base 45% and bull 5%
a) Bear condition = $0.05b x 0.5% = $0.0275b
b) Base condition = $0.75b x 0.45% = $0.3375b
c) Bull condition = $3.8b x 0.05% = #0.19b
Weighted avg. condition Future Market Cap = a + b + c = $0.52b x #1,600/$1 = #830b future market cap.
Can Ellah Lake really make this? and what year?
Current Ellah Lakes Market Cap is #8.4 b so from calculation above, this is roughly %5000 upside, meaning a #1m invested in Ellah lakes now, if it meets our target will give us #50m excluding dividends and bonuses.
The next question is, how many years will it take ellah lakes to achieve this target?
I will give a ellah lakes a 10 year period, that is 2035 with a moratorium of 3 years which means they won't generate revenue or profit from now till 2027 ending allowing their crops to mature and ready for harvesting and generating income.
Then from 2028 till 2035, ellah lakes must generate revenue and profit and grow their market cap on yearly basis by atleast 64% till 2035 from 2028 - can the management make this? is it achievable?
Let's do the survival Analysis of Ellah Lakes -

Their negative FCF from 2024 - 2021 = 498m - 508m - none - 3380m. This is what they have been burning into investment on yearly basis
Cash and cash equivalent from 2024 to 2021 = 230m - 916m - 237m - 323m. So they only have 6 months cash left to survive 2024, in other wodrs they need to raise loan or dilute more shares to raise capital to keep surviving.
Digging deeper, i noticed they did RI in 2024 and also did a private placement to raise more cash. Probably will be a convertible loan to equity in future.
Since we expect ellah lakes to not generate anything meaningful until 2028 and burning an average of 500m per year, we expect her to raise capital mostly through stock issuance that will last her for atleast 3 years = #1.5b worth of stocks
At #3/share of ellah lakes, an extra 750m shares would be issued to the OS of 2.75b = 3.5b by 2028
Debt raised from 2024 to 2021 = none -38m - 29m -940m
Issuance of stocks from 2024 - 2021 = 2186m - 1187m - 100m - 2200m
From our above calculation, Future Market cap by 2035 = 830b
OS by 2028 - 2035 = 3.5b
Implied price by 2035 when a venture capitalist wants to sell his shares and pull out = #237 / shares.
Can they really make it?
A #1m invested now in ellah lakes to worth 237m by 2035? 10 years from now
a 100k invested now to get 24m in 2035, is it possible?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 9:02am On Jan 14, 2025
bastardson:
No one is saying anything about Ellah Lakes.. All so quiet about it.
Valuation of your Ellah Lakes -
Many stock traders and even short/medium term investors mostly shy away from stocks like ellah lakes because it is hard to value or measure due to little or no revenue and profit but the good news is that anything and EVERYTHING has value and can be measured.....ANYTHING .. from accidental cars, scraps, rags, feaces / human waste....anything, just anything.
Ellah Lakes falls into stage 1 or 2 of corporate/business cycle and the characteristics are - little or no revenue, no gross profit down to negative or expanding operation loss and loss after tax plus expanding/diluting outstanding shares.
This is the terrain of Venture Capitalist and not traders or investors until it starts declaring revenue and profit.
So how do we value a non-profitable company/stock? or a stock not generating income? One out of the best valuation tools in our valuation box that fits this class of stock is TAM - Total Addressable Market
According to the picture attached below, Ellah Lakes management goal and objective is to capture 20% of nigeria government annual import bill of $10b 20% of which is $2b through palm oil plantation and processing, maize, soyabeans, cassava and rice
See ellah lakes as a business introduced to you by a friend to run together and won't generate income for some years before becoming profitable - first 1 - 5 years will be burning money on wages, building, planting etc without any income coming in, so it is an investment for mostly people with patient fund or reserved funds while they use bult of their money to do other things or investment.
Future market Cap of Ellah Lakes = TAM x Estimated Market share x Estimated Profit Margin x Estimated Future P/E
TAM = $10b annual nigeria goverment import bill
Estimated market share = while Ellah Lakes manage says they can achieve 20% of TAM which is $2b, i think they can only achieve 5% of TAM = $500m
Est. PM = using Presco (40) and Okomu (24) as reference, i will keep my PM low to 15
Future P/E = Okomu (15.5), Presco (8.4), avg. NGX ASI (10) as reference, i will pick 10
So
(a) Future Mkt Cap = $10b x 5% x15% x 10 = $750m and this is under normal condition (100% base Market Cap)
Assuming we are wrong with our calculations and then we have a bear market 50% of market cap
Then
(b) Future Market Cap (50% bear) = $5b x 2.5% x 7.5% x 5 = $50m
If we experience a bull market of 50% more market cap,
Then
(c) Future market Cap (150% bull) = $15b x 7.5% x 22.5% x 15 = $3.8b

To be continued to avoid long write-up

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 7:52pm On Jan 13, 2025
pluto09:
The job you are doing here now reminds me of those good old days of the defunct stock market Nigeria (SMN) . You can't analyze too much, the deeper you dig the better you understand.
I personally appreciate those who take their time to analyze and scrutinize company financial reports.
Exactly bro.
The deeper you dig, the better you become.
There are stocks i bought early last year have sold off now as i get better, when i started seeing the flaws in them.
I am gradually rebalancing my portfolio
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 7:32pm On Jan 13, 2025
ositadima1:
I remember when you started, and I admire your dedication—it truly gives you strength. I tried doing all of this myself and failed. It’s not hard, but it’s tedious and requires a lot of commitment. I think some people actually make a living from this. With enough capital, you can even play the markets full-time.

As for me, I’m too lazy and busy at the same time. So, I take shortcuts: I try to gauge market sentiment, watch what the big players are doing, and ride along with them. I’m sure they’re doing all the hard work—running laborious calculations and acting on them. My strategy is to watch the charts and volumes, get a sense of the market, and do the bare minimum, lol.

We all take shortcuts, don’t we? When you bought your car, TV, or computer, I bet you didn’t download the datasheets or analyze the intricate details of each component’s performance. You likely just asked around or checked online, trusting that others had already done the heavy lifting—or simply because they were using those products themselves.

Of course, this method has its flaws. The people you’re polling might be relying on polls themselves, and the whole cycle could be based on a baseless rumor or even manipulation, lol. This is a major problem with technical analysis.

Sorry for the long epistle!

shocked shocked shocked
Thanks bro for the compliment. It was not easy at all for me but i know i had no choice nor option than to know it and keep going forward. No other option.
When i joined the group early last year, i tried contacting some good monikers here privately to guide and mentor me but they declined and told me to say whatever i want to say here publicly. I wasn't too comfortable exposing myself too much and i understand their fears too, we have to be very careful with kidnappers and scammers in today's nigeria.
So i took the expensive route of self-education and self-reliance. It has always helped me. I worked in an industry full of expats and God bless you, you are not on your A-game, they will mock you and write you off to company that you know nothing. So it is in your best effort to read, read and read manuals, books, online to operate most equipment because the whites especially Ukrainians and Russians won't show you ( especially a black boy they are eager to sack before).
Spent close to $1,000 on courses, videos, tutorials, assignments, YouTube videos too etc and have seen so much improvement in my stock analyzing.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 11:35am On Jan 13, 2025
NettyNelly:
Well done
I believe it's a #80 - #90 stock as well.
I started looking at the stock at #49, but I didn't buy cause it's not the type of business I would like to hold for a long time.

They are really struggling with energy cost and I couldn't see a favourable runway ahead of the business, like most of my portfolio businesses.
If I was a trader I would have loaded up and hold it for a year for capital appreciation.
You are right with the valuation of 80-90 though i don't see them struggling with energy cost because operating expenses only rose by 3.8% between 9M/2024 and 9M/2023 while revenue grew by 76% during those periods.

my concern is their account receivable rising alot which means buyers are owing them more and inventory rising alot too - Both of these means product is struggling to move in the market thereby having more in store and buyers struggling to sell the ones they have so as to pay back their debts.
We can confirm this looking at their - Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) which is the number o days it takes the company to convert inventory to cashflow.
CCC = DIO (time to sell your products) + DSO ( time to collect money from customers) - DPO (time to pay your bills)
CCC = 91 +124 - 67 = 148 days ( we want less than 30 days, though we will compare with their peers in the same sector)
It takes 91 days for betaglass to sell their products, 124 days to collect the money and 67 days to pay contractors/suppliers of of raw materials.
With this, we can see betaglass is under pressure to pay their own bills (67 days) compared to the days it takes them to produce and get back their money (215 days)
Let's look back at betaglass CCC 5 years history to see if they are improving or not -

DIO ( 2020 - 2024 LTM) = 130 - 109 - 78 - 96 -91 -So as we can see, this number is improving. Taking betaglass 3 months to sell their products compared to previous 4 months plus. We want less than 30 days though.
DSO (2020 - 2024 LTM) = 85 - 68 - 75 - 74 - 124 - It takes 4 months to get back their money from buyers compare to 3 months previous. This number is getting bad. We want less than 30 days
DPO (2020 - 2024 LTM) - 98 - 83 - 67 - 74 - 67 - This number is reducing from 3 months to 2 months for betaglass to pay back contractors. It is not good. We want 90+
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 10:46am On Jan 13, 2025
ositadima1:
Let me start by saying that I haven’t looked deeply into the details beyond glancing at the audited 2023 earnings and the unaudited third-quarter 2024 earnings. The rest of my analysis is based on basic technical analysis and statistics.

My estimated final EPS for 2024 is similar to yours at 16.9. If the dividend follows the very low payout from 2023, it should be around ₦1.8 per share. It looks like a solid company focused on growth, which explains why only 11% of earnings are being paid as dividends. This low dividend payout pattern may continue, as the chart doesn’t show any anomalies in volume—unless, of course, they’re exceptionally good at hiding information.

With the kind of EPS they’re generating, the stock should be trading between ₦92 and ₦177, but the low dividend payout is holding back share price growth. This is the type of company that could issue a bonus in the future, perhaps something like a 3-for-2 stock split.

I’ll be keeping an eye out for anomalies in trading volume. While I believe the stock price will rise, I also expect it to dip below the current price at some point during the year due to the low dividend payout, only to recover later.

shocked shocked shocked
You are right with the #177 upper band valuation using valuation by EPS method
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 10:44am On Jan 13, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
Well done


It is a capital intensive business, capex margin of 68% is on the highside coupled with low dividend payout.

I prefer businesses with capex margin of 20% and below although 10% and below is preferable.


What percentage of the net operating cash flow did they use for capex. 30% and below of net operating cash flow is better.
Capex is 5.7b while OFC is negative 7.7b, so total FCF is -#13.4b. To answer your question, 74% of OFC was used for capex in 9M
Account receivables of 58b is roughly 75% of 9M revenue which is we need to keep an eye on
Inventory of 25b is 3x of profit 8b which is worrisome
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 8:57pm On Jan 12, 2025
bastardson:
No one is saying anything about Ellah Lakes.. All so quiet about it.
.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 9:05pm On Jan 10, 2025
eziokwunwoko:
Pa Emma, current price, Suprisepebble and emmaodet: Please what are your spreadsheet saying about a Beta Glass Plc.
Abeg I need your wonderful analysis.
I am loyal as you boy
Beta Glass -
The company is into the production of glass bottles for companies like Smirnoff Ice, Mcdowells, Squadron, Best Whisky, Chelsea, Lord's Gin, Royal Eagle, Schnapps, Orijin Bitters, Veleta wine, Amstel Malt, Guinnenss, Heineken, Guilder, 33, Harp, Trophy Goldberg and many more.
They also pproduce glass bottles crow cover ( bottle covers we use openers for
hey also produce drinks crates e.g crates for cokes etc

Revenue (2020 - 2024E) = 25.6b - 37b - 54.3b - 62.9b - 105b (E)
Revenue YOY (2020 to 2024E) = 44.5% - 46.8% - 15.8% - 67% (E)
Net Profit (2020 - 2024E) = 3.5b - 5.5b - 4.7b - 6.4b - 10.5b (E)
Net Margin (2020 - 2024E) = 13.7% - 14.9% - 8.7% -10.2% - 10% (E)
EPS (2020 - 2024E) = 6.93 - 10.92 -7.81 - 10.74 - 17.5 (E)
Equity ( 2020 - 2024E) = 37.2b - 42.1 - 46.3b - 52b - 60b(E)

She is spending less to make more sales/revenue which reduced from 2.5% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2024
Balance sheet is deteriorating due to Debt rising very much of 31.4b than cash of 12b compared to previous year of cash 26.8b and debt 24.6b
Account receivable increased by 800% from 3b to 27b
Inventory increased by 100% to7.3b
FCF reduced 121% from 9.6b to -2b. Negative FCF of -2b

Dep. Margin improved to 21% from 31.5% but we want 10%
Capex margin improved to 68.6% from 85% but we still prefer 25%

5% of revenue came from exported products while 95% sales is from local base.

Current P/E = 4.1, Forward P/E = 3.7, 5yrs P/E (mean) = 5.4, Current price = #64.9
Calculating for the implied earnings:

TTM earnings per share = Current price ÷ TTM P/E
#64.9 ÷ 4.1 = #15.83 (TTM EPS)
Forward earnings per share = Current price ÷ Forward P/E
#64.9 ÷ 3.7 = #17.54 (Forward EPS)

Using the TTM EPS = #15.83, Forward EPS = #17.54, historical 5-year average P/E of 5.4:
TTM-based price:
Implied Price = TTM EPS × Historical P/E
#15.83 × 5.4 = #85.48

Forward-based price:
Implied Price = Forward EPS × Historical P/E
#17.54 × 5.4 = #94.72

Therefore, based on the company's own historical valuation:

Using TTM earnings, the implied price is #85.48
Using forward earnings, the implied price is #94.72

Since the current price is $64.90, this suggests the stock might be undervalued by:

#20.58 (31.7%) based on TTM earnings
#29.82 (46.0%) based on forward earnings
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 5:20am On Jan 10, 2025
Sunrisepebble:
Cardinal stone has done the maths for us.
When I’m opportuned I will try to do the analysis on how it will affect the earnings of Presco when acquisition is completed. The margins of the Ghana company look healthy but a bit weaker than Presco’s
Let me also tag @emmaodet in case he has time on his hands
Using 2023 as a reference -
Revenue was 24.6b Gross profit was 59.3% and operating profit 41.5%

Presco revenue for 2023 was 102.4b, roughly 100%more than what GOPDC generated, Gross profit 64% and Operating profit 57.8%.
I will assume with this, Presco revenue should increase by 50% but since they posted that farm size will increase by 19%, then it is safe to predict that revenue will increase around that figure too
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 3:17pm On Jan 05, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
What is the return on equity? Is it growing over the years? What is the net margin?

What is the compounded annualized earning growth rate in the last 3 years
Chams -

ROE
9M/2024 = 9.5% and Estimated FY2024 to be 12% NM = 8.2%, with estimate of 10% FY2024
2023 = 0.2%, NM = 0.5%
2022 = -4%, NM = -7.4%
2021 = -7.6% NM = -10.8%
CAGR net earnings can't be calculated because Charms has been on negative earnings since 2021,2022 and became positive in 2023, she has been able to increase her earnings on yearly basis by #482,551,000 to become positive in 2023 going forward.
2023 is 20,220,000 and in 2021 is negative 944,882,000

Revenue from 2021 to 2024/Sept = 3.3b - 5.1 - 9.7b - 16b (estimated for FY 2024 bcus 9m = 13b)
Revenue has been growing 70% per year from 2021 to 2024, let's assume it will drop to 30% per year for the next 3 years,
then revenue by 2027 = 30b
Assuming they maintain the 2024 net margin 10% in 2027, Net income will be 3b, EPS = 0.64 and with an estimated P/E of 7, 2027 price = #4.5 which means Chams will double in price in the next 3 years from the current price of 2.3.
If she can increase her revenue by 50% per year from 2025 to 2027 and maintain a net income margin of 10%, price will be #5 per share
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 5:11am On Jan 05, 2025
Locotrader:
Ucap should settle you and oga Emma because Dem go get more than 10 clients next week
grin grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 10:30pm On Jan 04, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
What is the return on equity? Is it growing over the years? What is the net margin?

What is the compounded annualized earning growth rate in the last 3 years
.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 10:26pm On Jan 04, 2025
HesInMe:
Ask them o. After reading that one person bet the house in the village on it, and not wanting to miss out, I went and looked at the financials for this "tech company." Once I saw 20% gross margins, mainly from card production and biometric equipment (fingerprint scanners?), I just stopped.

That's gross margins on sales o, not net profit margin, after like 30 years in business, about half of them as a publicly listed company.

I want compensation for the time wasted.
grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 10:14pm On Jan 04, 2025
Locotrader:
@emmaodet

People wan follow you get margin loans oooo.
Abeg help them on what to do nah.
God go bless you.
If you are using united capital as your broker, send mail to uceecare@uceemfb.com for the loan and they will process it.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 10:14pm On Jan 04, 2025
Bimmms:
How can I access the loan too pls ?
If you are using united capital as your broker, send mail to uceecare@uceemfb.com for the loan and they will process it.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 8:07pm On Jan 04, 2025
Heishere:
I will advise you join a reputable cooperative, deposit some funds and collect at least x3 of your deposit as loan at 7% per annum interest at most. The interest you guys are paying on these loans is killing man.
I am in a cooperative, but it is not as flexible as ucee loan.
Firstly, they don't have the loan capacity i will need.
Monthly paying back is chocking unlike bullet payment after 6 months with Ucee allowing me to invest it better.
They require sometimes guarantors or surety unlike Ucee that requires no collateral or guarantors
You can't rollover cooperative money without leading to embarrassment or disgrace while you can rollover and payback Ucee for like 3 years
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 7:08pm On Jan 04, 2025
Regex:
I go message you make we talk about this margin loan and other things. Happy new year brother.
No wahala bro.
Happy new year to you too
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 4:43pm On Jan 04, 2025
Raider76:
Please what happens if the price of the shares you gave as collateral are about to fall below the value of the collateral? Will they do a margin call?
Yes, they will do a margin call but that will be on rear occasion.
You can only access 30% of your stock portfolio, so it is very rear for your portfolio to fall below 30% now.
Mutual fund is about 70-95% portfolio for loan

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