Emmaodet's Posts
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NettyNelly:Understand how to calculate justified P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio using these fundamental factors. The justified P/E ratio is a fundamental valuation metric that helps determine if a stock is fairly valued based on its growth prospects and returns. Here's how it works: Let's use a company with these characteristics: - Return on Equity (ROE) = 15% - Expected Growth Rate = 8% - Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) = 12% - Risk-free rate = 4% - Equity Risk Premium = 6% (market standard) The calculation involves several steps: 1. Cost of Equity Calculation: - Cost of Equity = Risk-free rate + Equity Risk Premium - In our example: 4% + 6% = 10% 2. Retention Ratio: - This is how much the company needs to retain to achieve its growth - Retention Ratio = Growth Rate / ROE - In our example: 8% / 15% = 53.3% 3. Payout Ratio: - This is what's left for shareholders - Payout Ratio = 1 - Retention Ratio - In our example: 1 - 0.533 = 46.7% 4. Value Spread: - This shows how much value the company creates above its cost of capital - Value Spread = ROIC - Cost of Equity - In our example: 12% - 10% = 2% 5. Final Justified P/E Formula: ``` Justified P/E = Payout Ratio × (1 + Growth Rate) / (Cost of Equity - Growth Rate) ``` Using our numbers: ``` Justified P/E = 0.467 × (1 + 0.08) / (0.10 - 0.08) = 0.467 × 1.08 / 0.02 = 25.2 ``` This means: - The company's stock can justify trading at 25.2 times earnings - If the actual P/E is below 25.2, the stock might be undervalued - If the actual P/E is above 25.2, the stock might be overvalued The higher justified P/E in this case is supported by: - Healthy ROE (15%) - Sustainable growth rate (8%) - Positive value spread (2%) - Reasonable payout ratio (46.7%) As copied from Claudia |
Sunrisepebble:That will make eps of around #100 Anyway, I don't feel comfortable with the stock and other stocks in the industry as benchmark - Capoil, Eterna, Conoil, MRS. They all have low profit margin which speaks volumes about that sector - petroleum and lubricant selling and distribution |
emmanuelewumi:Total 9M/24 eps is #80.8, PAT is 27.4b Q4/24 PAT forecast is 5.7b, so eps will be #16.8 FYI 2024 eps will be #97.6. Average 5 years P/E is 7.4 Therefore, I see a price of #722 That is a %7.8 upside to the current price of 670 |
emmanuelewumi:. |
Ades1:I will check it and get back by Tuesday bro |
emmanuelewumi:Thanks for the breakdown. With this calculation, I will add more shares of presco |
NettyNelly:Ohhh, I see. Nice one |
emmanuelewumi:#800 or #80? |
thesilentone:Nice one |
NettyNelly:Nice breakdown. Do you have a software for the chart you created? |
chidiebere1999:It will get there, probably in a year or two provided it sustains the current growth |
emmanuelewumi:Reason why i had to take the ucee loan to buy more because waiting to get cash to do that in 2/3 months may be kinda late |
bastardson:.....Continued ..... What is the chances of a bear base or bull occurring? From my observation, i will give a bear case 55%, base 45% and bull 5% a) Bear condition = $0.05b x 0.5% = $0.0275b b) Base condition = $0.75b x 0.45% = $0.3375b c) Bull condition = $3.8b x 0.05% = #0.19b Weighted avg. condition Future Market Cap = a + b + c = $0.52b x #1,600/$1 = #830b future market cap. Can Ellah Lake really make this? and what year? Current Ellah Lakes Market Cap is #8.4 b so from calculation above, this is roughly %5000 upside, meaning a #1m invested in Ellah lakes now, if it meets our target will give us #50m excluding dividends and bonuses. The next question is, how many years will it take ellah lakes to achieve this target? I will give a ellah lakes a 10 year period, that is 2035 with a moratorium of 3 years which means they won't generate revenue or profit from now till 2027 ending allowing their crops to mature and ready for harvesting and generating income. Then from 2028 till 2035, ellah lakes must generate revenue and profit and grow their market cap on yearly basis by atleast 64% till 2035 from 2028 - can the management make this? is it achievable? Let's do the survival Analysis of Ellah Lakes - Their negative FCF from 2024 - 2021 = 498m - 508m - none - 3380m. This is what they have been burning into investment on yearly basis Cash and cash equivalent from 2024 to 2021 = 230m - 916m - 237m - 323m. So they only have 6 months cash left to survive 2024, in other wodrs they need to raise loan or dilute more shares to raise capital to keep surviving. Digging deeper, i noticed they did RI in 2024 and also did a private placement to raise more cash. Probably will be a convertible loan to equity in future. Since we expect ellah lakes to not generate anything meaningful until 2028 and burning an average of 500m per year, we expect her to raise capital mostly through stock issuance that will last her for atleast 3 years = #1.5b worth of stocks At #3/share of ellah lakes, an extra 750m shares would be issued to the OS of 2.75b = 3.5b by 2028 Debt raised from 2024 to 2021 = none -38m - 29m -940m Issuance of stocks from 2024 - 2021 = 2186m - 1187m - 100m - 2200m From our above calculation, Future Market cap by 2035 = 830b OS by 2028 - 2035 = 3.5b Implied price by 2035 when a venture capitalist wants to sell his shares and pull out = #237 / shares. Can they really make it? A #1m invested now in ellah lakes to worth 237m by 2035? 10 years from now a 100k invested now to get 24m in 2035, is it possible? |
bastardson:Valuation of your Ellah Lakes - Many stock traders and even short/medium term investors mostly shy away from stocks like ellah lakes because it is hard to value or measure due to little or no revenue and profit but the good news is that anything and EVERYTHING has value and can be measured.....ANYTHING .. from accidental cars, scraps, rags, feaces / human waste....anything, just anything. Ellah Lakes falls into stage 1 or 2 of corporate/business cycle and the characteristics are - little or no revenue, no gross profit down to negative or expanding operation loss and loss after tax plus expanding/diluting outstanding shares. This is the terrain of Venture Capitalist and not traders or investors until it starts declaring revenue and profit. So how do we value a non-profitable company/stock? or a stock not generating income? One out of the best valuation tools in our valuation box that fits this class of stock is TAM - Total Addressable Market According to the picture attached below, Ellah Lakes management goal and objective is to capture 20% of nigeria government annual import bill of $10b 20% of which is $2b through palm oil plantation and processing, maize, soyabeans, cassava and rice See ellah lakes as a business introduced to you by a friend to run together and won't generate income for some years before becoming profitable - first 1 - 5 years will be burning money on wages, building, planting etc without any income coming in, so it is an investment for mostly people with patient fund or reserved funds while they use bult of their money to do other things or investment. Future market Cap of Ellah Lakes = TAM x Estimated Market share x Estimated Profit Margin x Estimated Future P/E TAM = $10b annual nigeria goverment import bill Estimated market share = while Ellah Lakes manage says they can achieve 20% of TAM which is $2b, i think they can only achieve 5% of TAM = $500m Est. PM = using Presco (40) and Okomu (24) as reference, i will keep my PM low to 15 Future P/E = Okomu (15.5), Presco (8.4), avg. NGX ASI (10) as reference, i will pick 10 So (a) Future Mkt Cap = $10b x 5% x15% x 10 = $750m and this is under normal condition (100% base Market Cap) Assuming we are wrong with our calculations and then we have a bear market 50% of market cap Then (b) Future Market Cap (50% bear) = $5b x 2.5% x 7.5% x 5 = $50m If we experience a bull market of 50% more market cap, Then (c) Future market Cap (150% bull) = $15b x 7.5% x 22.5% x 15 = $3.8b To be continued to avoid long write-up
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pluto09:Exactly bro. The deeper you dig, the better you become. There are stocks i bought early last year have sold off now as i get better, when i started seeing the flaws in them. I am gradually rebalancing my portfolio |
ositadima1:Thanks bro for the compliment. It was not easy at all for me but i know i had no choice nor option than to know it and keep going forward. No other option. When i joined the group early last year, i tried contacting some good monikers here privately to guide and mentor me but they declined and told me to say whatever i want to say here publicly. I wasn't too comfortable exposing myself too much and i understand their fears too, we have to be very careful with kidnappers and scammers in today's nigeria. So i took the expensive route of self-education and self-reliance. It has always helped me. I worked in an industry full of expats and God bless you, you are not on your A-game, they will mock you and write you off to company that you know nothing. So it is in your best effort to read, read and read manuals, books, online to operate most equipment because the whites especially Ukrainians and Russians won't show you ( especially a black boy they are eager to sack before). Spent close to $1,000 on courses, videos, tutorials, assignments, YouTube videos too etc and have seen so much improvement in my stock analyzing. |
NettyNelly:You are right with the valuation of 80-90 though i don't see them struggling with energy cost because operating expenses only rose by 3.8% between 9M/2024 and 9M/2023 while revenue grew by 76% during those periods. my concern is their account receivable rising alot which means buyers are owing them more and inventory rising alot too - Both of these means product is struggling to move in the market thereby having more in store and buyers struggling to sell the ones they have so as to pay back their debts. We can confirm this looking at their - Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) which is the number o days it takes the company to convert inventory to cashflow. CCC = DIO (time to sell your products) + DSO ( time to collect money from customers) - DPO (time to pay your bills) CCC = 91 +124 - 67 = 148 days ( we want less than 30 days, though we will compare with their peers in the same sector) It takes 91 days for betaglass to sell their products, 124 days to collect the money and 67 days to pay contractors/suppliers of of raw materials. With this, we can see betaglass is under pressure to pay their own bills (67 days) compared to the days it takes them to produce and get back their money (215 days) Let's look back at betaglass CCC 5 years history to see if they are improving or not - DIO ( 2020 - 2024 LTM) = 130 - 109 - 78 - 96 -91 -So as we can see, this number is improving. Taking betaglass 3 months to sell their products compared to previous 4 months plus. We want less than 30 days though. DSO (2020 - 2024 LTM) = 85 - 68 - 75 - 74 - 124 - It takes 4 months to get back their money from buyers compare to 3 months previous. This number is getting bad. We want less than 30 days DPO (2020 - 2024 LTM) - 98 - 83 - 67 - 74 - 67 - This number is reducing from 3 months to 2 months for betaglass to pay back contractors. It is not good. We want 90+ |
ositadima1:You are right with the #177 upper band valuation using valuation by EPS method |
emmanuelewumi:Capex is 5.7b while OFC is negative 7.7b, so total FCF is -#13.4b. To answer your question, 74% of OFC was used for capex in 9M Account receivables of 58b is roughly 75% of 9M revenue which is we need to keep an eye on Inventory of 25b is 3x of profit 8b which is worrisome |
bastardson:. |
eziokwunwoko:Beta Glass - The company is into the production of glass bottles for companies like Smirnoff Ice, Mcdowells, Squadron, Best Whisky, Chelsea, Lord's Gin, Royal Eagle, Schnapps, Orijin Bitters, Veleta wine, Amstel Malt, Guinnenss, Heineken, Guilder, 33, Harp, Trophy Goldberg and many more. They also pproduce glass bottles crow cover ( bottle covers we use openers for hey also produce drinks crates e.g crates for cokes etc Revenue (2020 - 2024E) = 25.6b - 37b - 54.3b - 62.9b - 105b (E) Revenue YOY (2020 to 2024E) = 44.5% - 46.8% - 15.8% - 67% (E) Net Profit (2020 - 2024E) = 3.5b - 5.5b - 4.7b - 6.4b - 10.5b (E) Net Margin (2020 - 2024E) = 13.7% - 14.9% - 8.7% -10.2% - 10% (E) EPS (2020 - 2024E) = 6.93 - 10.92 -7.81 - 10.74 - 17.5 (E) Equity ( 2020 - 2024E) = 37.2b - 42.1 - 46.3b - 52b - 60b(E) She is spending less to make more sales/revenue which reduced from 2.5% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2024 Balance sheet is deteriorating due to Debt rising very much of 31.4b than cash of 12b compared to previous year of cash 26.8b and debt 24.6b Account receivable increased by 800% from 3b to 27b Inventory increased by 100% to7.3b FCF reduced 121% from 9.6b to -2b. Negative FCF of -2b Dep. Margin improved to 21% from 31.5% but we want 10% Capex margin improved to 68.6% from 85% but we still prefer 25% 5% of revenue came from exported products while 95% sales is from local base. Current P/E = 4.1, Forward P/E = 3.7, 5yrs P/E (mean) = 5.4, Current price = #64.9 Calculating for the implied earnings: TTM earnings per share = Current price ÷ TTM P/E #64.9 ÷ 4.1 = #15.83 (TTM EPS) Forward earnings per share = Current price ÷ Forward P/E #64.9 ÷ 3.7 = #17.54 (Forward EPS) Using the TTM EPS = #15.83, Forward EPS = #17.54, historical 5-year average P/E of 5.4: TTM-based price: Implied Price = TTM EPS × Historical P/E #15.83 × 5.4 = #85.48 Forward-based price: Implied Price = Forward EPS × Historical P/E #17.54 × 5.4 = #94.72 Therefore, based on the company's own historical valuation: Using TTM earnings, the implied price is #85.48 Using forward earnings, the implied price is #94.72 Since the current price is $64.90, this suggests the stock might be undervalued by: #20.58 (31.7%) based on TTM earnings #29.82 (46.0%) based on forward earnings |
Sunrisepebble:Using 2023 as a reference - Revenue was 24.6b Gross profit was 59.3% and operating profit 41.5% Presco revenue for 2023 was 102.4b, roughly 100%more than what GOPDC generated, Gross profit 64% and Operating profit 57.8%. I will assume with this, Presco revenue should increase by 50% but since they posted that farm size will increase by 19%, then it is safe to predict that revenue will increase around that figure too |
emmanuelewumi:Chams - ROE 9M/2024 = 9.5% and Estimated FY2024 to be 12% NM = 8.2%, with estimate of 10% FY2024 2023 = 0.2%, NM = 0.5% 2022 = -4%, NM = -7.4% 2021 = -7.6% NM = -10.8% CAGR net earnings can't be calculated because Charms has been on negative earnings since 2021,2022 and became positive in 2023, she has been able to increase her earnings on yearly basis by #482,551,000 to become positive in 2023 going forward. 2023 is 20,220,000 and in 2021 is negative 944,882,000 Revenue from 2021 to 2024/Sept = 3.3b - 5.1 - 9.7b - 16b (estimated for FY 2024 bcus 9m = 13b) Revenue has been growing 70% per year from 2021 to 2024, let's assume it will drop to 30% per year for the next 3 years, then revenue by 2027 = 30b Assuming they maintain the 2024 net margin 10% in 2027, Net income will be 3b, EPS = 0.64 and with an estimated P/E of 7, 2027 price = #4.5 which means Chams will double in price in the next 3 years from the current price of 2.3. If she can increase her revenue by 50% per year from 2025 to 2027 and maintain a net income margin of 10%, price will be #5 per share |
emmanuelewumi:. |
HesInMe: ![]() |
Locotrader:If you are using united capital as your broker, send mail to uceecare@uceemfb.com for the loan and they will process it. |
Bimmms:If you are using united capital as your broker, send mail to uceecare@uceemfb.com for the loan and they will process it. |
Heishere:I am in a cooperative, but it is not as flexible as ucee loan. Firstly, they don't have the loan capacity i will need. Monthly paying back is chocking unlike bullet payment after 6 months with Ucee allowing me to invest it better. They require sometimes guarantors or surety unlike Ucee that requires no collateral or guarantors You can't rollover cooperative money without leading to embarrassment or disgrace while you can rollover and payback Ucee for like 3 years |
Regex:No wahala bro. Happy new year to you too |
Raider76:Yes, they will do a margin call but that will be on rear occasion. You can only access 30% of your stock portfolio, so it is very rear for your portfolio to fall below 30% now. Mutual fund is about 70-95% portfolio for loan |
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