₦airaland Forum

nosa2:
The man is a daft who thought he was a genius. I still remember a TV interview he did when he said he wasn't convinced as to why we needed to devalue (Naira was about N250/$1). Or paying ransom for the Chibok girls which has led to kidnapping being a business.

A leader's job is to appoint advisers and to listen to that advise. Buhari truly believed he had the solution to Nigeria's problems. Patriotism has nothing to do with leadership ability.

Anyway make I no vex this morning

On the late naira devaluation of 2015/2016, I think it was based on his past experience.

When Babangida took over in 1986, he immediately devalued the naira in order to liberalise FX and prevent scarcity of imported items which led to queues in the Buhari era (both Shagari and Buhari had refused to devalue Naira despite fiscal crises from low oil prices since 1981).

Buhari and my parents saw first hand how the naira never looked back since that Babangida devaluation and they learnt the wrong lessons from it. That Naira devaluation itself by Babangida (or any president) is the problem rather than the symptom.
They failed to learn that when you don’t devalue on time based on the macroeconomic realities and you suppress a currency for long (leading to wide black market rates), the aftermath of the devaluation after the suppression usually becomes disastrous.

The key is to find a balance and manage the float.

nosa2:
Globally, Buhari should be amongst the worst peacetime leaders of all time. The man is one of the main reasons why Nigeria is still a third world country.

It’s not necessarily Buhari. The man himself is a patriot who did what he could but his ideology is similar to that of Yaradua (who many Nigerians love today), Kwankwanso, Sowore and most Nigerians. He is a social welfarist and like all ideologies (including capitalism), it has its pros and cons (tradeoffs).

Streetinvestor2:
Na that time I go sell all my village land and people if possible invest in the market. Ngx bull go enter Guinness record..lol

Politics aside, I remember just before the election in 2023, analysts made it clear that whoever won out of the three candidates would make the markets bullish because they had similar policies.
I think these policies (which have been unfortunately but expectedly brutal to the micros) are largely part of the reasons the markets have never looked back in 3 years.

It has grown by at least over 30% YTD since 2023.

nosa2:
Thanks for this.

What percentage of their earnings comes from the refinery business? I am bearish on oil and gas but bullish on refining.

I think they are expanding their refinery and may even start petrol refining this year but it’s not the major part of their business.

The NGX touched the $100 Billion mark yesterday: 134.77 trillion naira (at FX rate: 1343 naira/$). Its second highest market cap in history (in dollar terms).

The NGX in 2008 (then the NSE) actually hit an all-time high in dollar terms back in February 2008, reaching approximately $107.5 Billion. 

• The Devaluation Effect: Since 2008, the Naira has undergone several significant devaluations. This means that even as the market grew in local value, its "dollarized" value often shrank. For example, in January 2026, when the market first hit the ₦100 Trillion milestone, it was valued at roughly $71 Billion due to the exchange rates at the time. 

• The 2026 Rally: Crossing $100 Billion now is a major recovery. It shows that the market's growth is finally outpacing currency depreciation, reclaiming value that was essentially "lost" during the sharp devaluations of 2024 and 2025. 

Why This Time Feels Different

While it’s the second time hitting that dollar threshold, the market structure is quite different now:
• Institutional Depth: There is much higher participation from local institutional investors (like pension funds) compared to 2008.
• Market Dominance: A few "mega-caps" (like Dangote Cement, BUA Foods, and Airtel Africa) now represent a huge portion of that valuation, providing a different kind of stability—and concentration risk—than the banking-heavy rally of 2008.
• Global Performance: In the first quarter of 2026, the NGX has been ranked as one of the best-performing markets globally in dollar terms, which is attracting foreign portfolio investors back to the floor.

SECNigeria wants Free Trade Zone Companies listed on the Stock Exchange

The newly proposed rules would allow FTZEs to raise public capital, with a minimum N7.5bn paid-up capital, a 3-year track record & full disclosure requirements.

Source: Proshare

verminnel:
Jeez!!! Sad i sold off seplat

Seeing that in some years time they would control a lot of the natural gas Nigeria would produce alongside NNPC, I knew not to sell off.

Top African Companies by Size & Influence

🇿🇦 Naspers
🇩🇿 Sonatrach
🇿🇦 Sasol
🇿🇦 MTN Group
🇳🇬 NNPC Limited
🇲🇦 OCP Group
🇿🇦 Shoprite Holdings
🇿🇦 Standard Bank Group
🇿🇦 Vodacom Group
🇳🇬 Dangote Group
🇿🇦 FirstRand
🇿🇦 Absa Group
🇿🇦 Anglo American Platinum
🇿🇦 Sibanye-Stillwater
🇪🇬 Commercial International Bank
🇿🇦 Bidcorp
🇿🇦 Pick n Pay Stores
🇿🇦 Spar Group
🇰🇪 Safaricom
🇳🇬 Zenith Bank

NGX would soon easily be over a $100 Billion market.

nosa2:
Did you buy your ETI?

Up 10% already.

Analysts have started to analyse

I made a mistake. Exited ETI (little though) a day before the result came out. 😭

Niyijac:
Implications of the new policy

The steel tariff cuts (35% across the board) compress margins for listed manufacturers like Dangote and BUA who rely on import duty protection. Watch those stocks.

But the flip side: zero tariffs on agricultural and manufacturing machinery slash costs such that companies investing in expansion get cheaper equipment immediately.

Sugar and rice reductions will hit Dangote sugar, BUA Foods and Flour Mills etc. hardest. Their pricing power shrinks the moment cheaper imports land. Short-term pressure on earnings is real.

Zero tariff on cargo ships signals a logistics push. Ports and freight plays could benefit.

For Nigerians at large,
Rice, salt, sugar, and palm oil tariffs all dropped. That should ease food prices. It only works if importers pass the savings down rather than pocket the margin. With naira volatility still in the picture, the relief may be partial.

Construction gets cheaper: tiles and steel bars are both down. Anyone building or renovating sees real cost reduction.
Surgical theatres at 5% from 20% is a quiet win for healthcare infrastructure.

The green tax exemptions for EVs, mass transit buses, and small-engine cars nudge transport toward affordability and cleaner options, but the EV market in Nigeria is still nascent, so this is a long game.

Source: The cable, https://share.google/IOdbOqD5ug8XvwfnG

Why I like markets is that if an importer doesn’t bring down his prices on time, another importer would do that and gain a better share of the market, forcing the first importer to bring down his prices eventually in order to save his market share. But this happens only when there is no monopoly or oligopoly. Where the market is allowed to play out with different players.

Yoursfaithful:
Source: TheCable
https://share.google/IOdbOqD5ug8XvwfnG

EXCLUSIVE: FG cuts tariffs on cars, palm oil, sugar in new fiscal policy measures

Why cars and not tractors?

Seplat, GT, Airtel

There is something I have observed about this Cardoso era which is strange to me.

In the past, naira and foreign exchange reserves improved with increase in crude oil prices (and logically so) but in Cardoso’s era, naira and FX reserves both struggle with increase in crude oil prices and world instability but starts improving again when the escalation is down.

Finally. This would increase the inflow of foreign capital into Nigerian Equity market which had been on a significant decline since the strict FX controls in 2021. Rebounded in recent years but only slightly.

BabsO2:
Is it not better NNPC supply the max Dangote refinery can take. With Nigeria selling the finished products instead of raw crude. Will selling finished products not earn more money for NNPC/FGN than selling raw crude?

Nigeria owns only 7.25% of the refinery.

Nigeria doubled its crude supply to Dangote Refinery in March.
NNPC: 5 cargoes/month → 10 cargoes/month
Aliko Dangote personally confirmed this information today.

What the refinery is doing with it:
🛢️ Now supplying 60% of Nigeria's refined petroleum products.
⛽ Covering ~90% of Nigeria's petrol needs
📦 Exports to Africa: 214,000 bpd (up from 100,000 in February)
🌍 Tanzania: received its first-ever Dangote cargo in March

The catch that remains:
The refinery needs 13–15 shipments per month to run at full capacity.
At 10 cargoes, it's still operating below optimum.

Domestic fuel prices in Nigeria: still at record highs.

Africa's largest refinery is filling a gap the Gulf can no longer fill.
But it can't fill it fast enough — not yet.

Data Explained

My little calculation on how the big banks have performed in 3 years (May 2023 to April 2026). All of the FUGAZ have beaten the chronic devaluation. Only Access Bank remains thesame so far.

THE FUGAZ:

FBN (May 2023) = 484.5 Billion naira ($1.05Bn)
(April 2026) = 2.2 trillion naira ($1.59Bn)

UBA (May 2023) = 321.5 Billion naira ($696 mln)
(April 2026) = 2 trillion naira ($1.45 Bn)

GTB (May 2023) = 832.9 Billion naira ($1.8Bn)
(April 2026) = 4.5 trillion naira ($3.26Bn)

Access (May 2023) = 465.7 Billion naira ($1.01Bn)
(April 2026) = 1.4 trillion naira ($1.01 Bn)

Zenith (May 2023) = 847.7 Billion naira ($1.83 Bn)
(April 2026) = 4.2 trillion naira ($3 Bn)

Assumptions: FX rates (462/$ and 1378/$) for May 2023 and April 2026 respectively.

Flutterwave just became a Bank. IPO soon?

“Industry analysts view the banking license as a “de-risking” event critical for a potential Initial Public Offering (IPO). Securing a direct license signals a high level of regulatory trust from the CBN, particularly as the company joins the 2026 AML (Anti-Money Laundering) Pilot program for fintechs.”

zendi:
At last Brent Oil headed down back to it's senses...
It will be under $100 by morning.

Unless Trump says something or Iran rockets one commercial vessel over the night.

$100.58

Well, Trump said something.

OANDO COMMENCES FINAL INSPECTIONS FOR 60MW GAS TURBINE

​Oando (formerly Nigerian Agip Oil Company) has mobilized personnel for a critical inspection of its gas manifold infrastructure.

This technical review is the final step required before releasing gas into the newly completed 60-megawatt gas turbine, ensuring all systems are primed for operational takeoff.

As the primary energy provider for the project, Oando’s successful "gas-in" process is the catalyst for the facility’s launch.

This milestone comes as Bayelsa State prepares for the official visit of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, who will formally commission the turbine along with several other signature projects in the coming days.

https://x.com/microsmoothie/status/2039380748130533553?s=46

Middle East shock gives Dangote Refinery leverage as cheap imports dry up

23 Mar 2026

Nigeria's exports ​of gasoline, diesel, kerosene & jet fuel have ​risen to about 214k bpd so far in March from ⁠an average 100k bpd in Feb

Reuters

“ The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has successfully exported 456,000 tonnes of refined petroleum products through 12 cargoes lifted by international traders.

According to industry sources, the shipments, comprising Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), were delivered to multiple African destinations, including Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana, and Togo.”

https://nairametrics.com/2026/03/22/dangote-refinery-exports-456000-tonnes-of-fuel-to-african-markets/

SpencerForbes:
1.5 million with 3 girls He’s in Jos, so things might actually be cheaper there.

1.5 million is big money for 3 girls even in Lagos, Abuja and PortHarcourt

megawealth01:
It seems oil stocks MIGHT start rally in NGX?

With this Post from Trump, oil prices would likely rise on Monday and even further more on Tuesday because Iran would likely not budge before the end of the 48 hours

anonimi:
I see your nitpicking to use half truth to mask failure.

While there is some increase in dollar value from 2023, that is attributed to banks and insurance companies recapitalising.

The remarkable thing is that the market value is still far lower than what it was in 2014, the last full year of PDP prosperity era.

Almost every company you can think of have grown. The oil sector is better than it was in 2022. So is Dangote cement, BUA cement, BUA foods, MTN, Aradel, Seplat, you name it.

Note: Using the subsidized 460/$ in 2023, the market cap was $62 Billion. Today it is $95 Billion. That’s not a small growth in dollar terms.

If we use the parallel market rate of 750/$ in 2023, the market cap was $37 Billion as at May 2023. Today using the parallel market rate of 1400/$, it is $92 Billion.

From $37 Billion to $92 Billion in 3 years.

anonimi:
I see your nitpicking to use half truth to mask failure.

While there is some increase in dollar value from 2023, that is attributed to banks and insurance companies recapitalising.

The remarkable thing is that the market value is still far lower than what it was in 2014, the last full year of PDP prosperity era.

This is wrong. The market cap is currently 129.3 trillion naira which is $95 Billion. This is the highest it has been in dollar terms since 2007. Your AI or source is subtracting dollar inflation since 2014 and adding the difference to your 2014 figure. The ordinary market cap in dollars as at beginning of 2014 was $84 Billion. Today it is $95 Billion

OredoPikin2:
What do u guys really gain in lying to yourselves?
Why do u think u can use lies to convince person in this internet age

I will help u
U claim we didn't have 21 companies worth 1billion dols in 2023
Let me take u back to 2022
In 2022
1. Airtel worth ovet 12 billion dols
2. Mtn worth 13 billion dols


U can research the others yourself

This is from Gemini AI:

“At the end of 2022, the official I&E window rate was approximately ₦448 / $1.
• Valuation of MTN at official market : ~$9.75 Billion
2. Parallel Market Rate (Black Market)
The unofficial rate at the time was much higher, hovering around ₦735 - ₦750 / $1.
• Valuation of MTN at parallel market : ~$5.83 Billion”

Today, MTN Nigeria is worth over $11 Billion at both official and parallel markets.

anonimi:
What else is there to make of it than the worse economic conditions of the past three years, such that you need 9 additional companies to have the same capitalisation

I don’t understand your confusion. Exchange rate depreciated from 450 to 1360 (3.5 times depreciation) yet we added 9 more companies to the billion dollar list. That’s significant growth.

OredoPikin2:
Even u nor believe wetin u type

Research it my friend. Internet is free. Even at 450/$ in May 2023, we didn’t have 21 companies worth $1 Billion.

If I use 750/$ which the parallel market was then, we didn’t have up to 10.

The total market cap was 28.5 trillion naira as at May 29th 2023. That was $62 Billion (at official 450/$ rate) but a mere $37 Billion ( at 750/$ rate).

Today, at both the parallel rate of 1415/$ and the official rate of 1360/$, the NGX is above $90 Billion.

anonimi:
APC has failed …………….way more than PDP did.



I’m almost certain that the 24 leading companies on the NSE were worth more in dollars 11 years ago compared with today.

No they are not. The best we had since 2007 was in 2013 with total market cap at 84 Billion USD. The current market is already around 93 Billion USD.