₦airaland Forum

vaxx:
Absolutely it is not nice, Ghana is a miniature 🐜 when it comes to global supply of crude, Nigeria is in top 7 . So I still don't understand why Nigeria will outsource her crude from GH

So the way it works is, Dangote takes your crude, refines and then supply you. What has been taken from Ghana is very little. Out of the 9 ship supplies, 6 were from Nigeria, 2 from USA and 1 from Ghana so I don’t see the problem here.

Nigeria is trying to boost production from 1.5 million bpd of crude oil (without condensates) to our usual and historical 2 million bpd (which we lost since 2020 (COVID)). But that may start happening on a a consistent basis in 2026 and 2027 because the OPEC quarter limits us to 1.5 million bpd. Dangote took majority of his crude from Nigeria in August as usual but he can’t solely rely on Nigeria’s crude for now.

Pls Nigeria is not any giant in global crude oil supply at the moment. We produce just 1.5 million bpd of crude oil (without condensates). Given the fact that our foreign exchange and budget calculation is largely dependent on this 1.5 million bpd for a population of approximately 200 million people, you see that we cannot yet be called a global oil giant.

Nigeria is not even in the top ten 🔟 in the world.

vaxx:
Interesting 🤔. So Ghana is supplying Nigeria crude oil.

Nice one.

Zagee:
Emerging markets are eating big. Notice the shift. BTW, what does Venezuela has that Nigeria should not be pulling those figures instead? 🤔

Nothing special in the case of Venezuela. Just an hedge against over 200% currency devaluation in 2025 and high inflation

12 best performing stock markets in the world 2025.

If foreign investors dominate the market, this Dangote news for be heavy sell today. Na why I dey fear foreign investors most times 🤣

Smartguyboy:
Not less than 24 hours

Cool, let me wait till tomorrow. Thanks.

Smartguyboy:
Mine been working

Thanks. Mine just worked now although they are yet to validate my bank account. I sent the 50 naira transfer to them already. Please how long would it take them to complete that process?
Their registration is so seamless compared to traditional brokers like Morgan Capital.

Omoawoke:
Can we check the top African countries with the highest number of black millionaires?

But who them help?? Who African millionaires or billionaires help?

33000 black millionaires in South Africa followed by 7200 black millionaires in Nigeria.

Kenyans what would you guys do about the passport bros flooding your country including J Rello? 🤣🤣

Smartguyboy:
I have 100k to waste which share is best to buy now .
I am using Cowrywise for now please need someone to put my through how this dividend work.

My Cowrywise still doesn’t work. They told me NGX is not yet active there when I tried to also open it.

https://nairametrics.com/2025/08/29/gtco-injects-n365-85-billion-into-gtbank-to-meet-cbns-recapitalisation-mandate/

“Through this capital injection, the share capital of GTBank has been increased from N138.186 billion to N504.037 billion and ensures the bank’s compliance with the new minimum capital requirement for commercial banks with international authorisation stipulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria,” the statement read.

pluto09:
I also share the opinion that the higher participation of local investors compare to foreign investors will reduce the rate of crash if at all there will be any.
This doesn't in anyway imply that the bear will not come as a normal cycle in stock markets.

Local investors keep the market stable and makes me very confident in the market.
With foreign investors, when they get political news they don’t understand fully, they run away immediately and they crash the market heavily. Local investors know the context of the news better for the most part. Take for example the VDM & GTB Bank issue some months ago.
So I always prefer to have the market dominated by local investors (60%). The only downside is that it makes the stocks way cheaper than they would have been. Foreign investors bring in the much needed liquidity.

Nigeria still hovering around 4th in 2025 despite devaluation from 460 to 1530 naira/$

Top 15 countries by number of dollar millionaires (bottom up):

15. Uganda: 1,600
14. Botswana: 1,700
13. Cote d'Ivoire: 2,000
12. Tanzania: 2,100
11. Angola: 2,300
10. Ethiopia: 2,400
9. Namibia: 2,500
8. Ghana: 2,600
7. Algeria: 2,700
6. Mauritius: 4,800
5. Kenya: 6,800
4. Nigeria: 7,200
3. Morocco: 7,500
2. Egypt: 14,800
1. South Africa: 41,100

mikeapollo:
Okay, thanks.
Let's wait and I see.
I have someone who earns around that amount and I don't want the person to start giving me excuses about taxes from Jan 2026.

Okay, if we assume all else being equal, and assuming just a gross of 24 million naira yearly (only), your friend would only pay 10,000 naira more monthly in tax.

mikeapollo:
Thanks.
Let's wait and I see.

Okay I see you meant monthly. But people earning 2 million monthly are rich folks though and the increase in tax is not that high from what I see.

pluto09:
He is talking about 2m per month and not per annum

Lol. How many folks earn 2 million monthly in Nigeria?🤣.

mikeapollo:
But there is still a lot of so called ''high earners'' who will be paying more tax without any additional benefits.
The N2m monthly salary threshold for ''high earners'' is ridiculous. It should start from around N5m monthly.

Someone earning N2m today is not better than someone earning N700k in 2015 but he will be paying higher taxes

If you earn 2 million naira, you pay less than you are paying now under the new law. Except we are both talking about something different.

mikeapollo:
A lot of people will be affected negatively. Paying more tax without any additional benefits.

A lot of people or mostly high earners? Hasn’t it rather reduced the tax for majority of people (mostly the poor)?

Ginalex:
The new one no favour me o

Hmm, you must be amongst the 1% of the 1%. Well done ma.

ppogba:
In one breath you and your likes are never tired of shouting that Tinubu makes noise about the capital market recent bullish run as one of his achievements. In this new breath, he wants to destroy the capital market just as he has destroyed other sectors.

The way the presumably educated and enlightened bad mouth every thing government and Nigeria deserves serious researching into . The less educated are less caustic and way more sensible .

He takes the glory and yet wants to destroy the trophy.

Oga, make good use of your talent well .

Abeg, I don't want to annoy anyone on this particular thread of Nairaland

At the end of the day, I see that it’s mostly about our biases not necessarily about policies and ideology (no matter how enlightened we are). It’s mostly about who we like and we don’t like 😊😆. This is not just a Nigerian thing though, it’s the nature of politics 😊

Streetinvestor2:
This is not what I understood in the new tax law.
I was not told that all are given grace of the first 800k.I was only told u don't pay if u don't earn upto 800k per annum.
The professionals in that field will help out if I am wrong .
U know English is not igbo language which was my first language..lol

If you go to the president’s twitter page, you would see where he posted the formula for calculating tax under the new law a few days ago.

I inputed 840k as gross salary and it calculated the resulting tax as 6000 naira yearly which is 15% of 40k. This is about 33000 naira reduction from the 39,920 naira you currently pay if you earn 840k yearly.

It also gave me comparison of what obtains now and the new law, that is old vs new law for someone receiving 840k gross yearly.

freeman67:
One thing we are not all seeing is that except for the some people employed in private / small businesses earning between 20-60k, by the design of 70k minimum wage nobody is supposed to earn less than 800k. So nobody is exempted. Minimum wage earners earn 840k per annum and by this design are to be taxed so there is no exemption for anyone except for those in the military.

No, you are getting it wrong. If you earn minimum wage (70k monthly), you earn 840k yearly. You would only pay tax on 40k. Your first 800k is tax exempt and the remaining 40k is taxed 15%.

Joyful365:
The Nigeria Tax Act 2024 has been signed into law and it's set to take effect from 2026.

The tax act effectively increases the minimum tax rate for everyone and also increases capital gains tax from 10% to 30%.

The packagers of bulaba will make it seem like balablu has done Nigerians a lot of favour by making certain provisions for low income earners but they'll not tell you that the inflation and increase in price of every good and service in Nigeria has rendered those provisions ineffective against protecting anyone.

The first thing they're already planning to do with the increase in revenue from increased taxes and widened tax net is to increase the salaries and allowances of elected politicians - not increase minimum wage, fix electricity, insecurity and food shortage crisis.

I thought the tax act actually reduced taxes for most people and you are not taxed on your first 800,000 naira (for those earning up to 3 million naira annual salary) and 25 million for SME’s? So I don’t understand the bolded.

Here is a summary of the bill:

“for many individuals and small businesses, the reforms notably reduce tax burdens.
• Low-income earners (≤ ₦800,000 annually) now pay zero personal income tax   .
• Small businesses within the thresholds are fully exempt from key taxes   .
• Essential goods are VAT-zero-rated, which reduces the cost of everyday items; plus, businesses can reclaim input VAT, improving cash flow   .
• Productive sectors and multinationals face stricter taxation, but reforms aim to distribute tax burdens more equitably    .

As a summary, a Reddit user put it succinctly:

“The entire point of the bill isn’t to increase taxes but to widen the tax net … individuals earning under 800,000k … are exempt … it also eliminates VAT on items Nigerians spend most … food and medicine.”

Joyful365:
Your argument is valid and I also mentioned implementation of improved Oronsaye report which would have resulted in mass layoff of fg government workers, living only mostly essential workers who run essential ministries and provide mostly essential public service, eg police, army, navy, teachers, doctors, judges, etc with very strict performance benchmarks and standards... Perform or go home, like in the private sector.

Also remember that it is these low level government employees that are poorly paid that engage or facilitate corrupt deals that leads to billions in losses to everyone. Pay them well and make it clear that they'll lose their valuable job, lose their assets and go to jail for aiding corruption. Imagine paying paper pushers, clerks, security, policemen and other lower grade workers poorly and expecting good results. It cannot happen.


Again, people outside government will still benefit from the increased minimum wage because private sector will now have to pay workers well and find improved ways to get value for what they're paying.

The carelessness of the government is why you see price of most goods and services jumping 200% to 400% while those earning 200k in 2023 are still earning 200k today. The private sector is the slavery headquarters of Nigeria. They fully exploit the unemployment situation to underpay workers and treat treat them poorly...low wages contributes causes low purchasing power, low business patronage and low economic growth.

Paying people poorly is giving them incentive to commit crime - steal, demand bribe, etc. How do you want to judge them when the system is doing everything to keep them poor?

Balablu doesn't know what he's doing. His media team can praise prices of goods coming down but they don't know that it will result to deflation. Falling prices will result to deflation and no company will want to produce when prices are falling, so his best bet now is to increase people's disposable income by increasing minimum wage and lowering tax, especially for low income earners.

Anything less is coded printing of money which will result in more inflation. Add unemployment and Nigeria ends up in stagflationary economy.

If there's no real improvement in the real sector (electricity, agriculture, manufacturing and services), the financial sector (including stock market) will be dragged down into a bear market.

The first step now is improve people's purchasing power but bulaba is planning to reduce it further from January 2026 with more taxes.

The journey still long for Nigerians

More taxes? How?

mikeapollo:
Thanks for this piece
I recall Tinubu himself telling Buhari to print money to use for the budget.

Well you are right. What Tinubu and Buhari had in mind especially after COVID was not executed properly because it seems Buhari allowed Emiefele carry out most of those responsibilities alone which was not his core mandate.

What Tinubu advised during COVID (printing of more money to survive COVID) was necessary and was carried out in most parts of the world during COVID. You don’t get excessive devaluation and inflation simply because you printed, rather you get that when you didn’t print to boost output or support industries.

We printed 22 trillion in 8 years ($50 Billion). How much of it went in to boost the output of the economy in a commensurate mannner? This is partly what led to the spike in inflation and naira devaluation.

If we printed $50 Billion and at least $40 Billion went into the economy to support industries that eventually came out with increased output of that sum, our economy would have expanded with only little inflationary spike. But most of the printing especially in 2022 and 2023 were not for those purposes. They went into paying salaries and supporting recurrent expenditures.

ositadima1:
This is enlightening, brother—may I call you that? But it seems you missed my point, so let me rephrase. Are all local debts denominated in Naira? I don’t think so; I may even have proof of this.

My other questions relate to events like those in the attached excerpts.

Local debts are in naira that’s why they are local. If they were borrowed from within (usually DMO bonds and the likes). What you have in your screenshot is ways and means which I referred to as printing for Government in lay man’s terms. That is also a local debt which has now been securitised. CBN printed 22 trillion naira for Buhari’s Govt in 8 years but the DMO didn’t include it in our total public debt as at 2023. It was securitised by the Tinubu Govt and so it increased the local debt from 30 trillion naira to around 54 trillion naira in 2023.

ositadima1:
Very interesting observation—kudos to you. You know me, I easily get confused, and I have more doubts. I’m sure your data can be corroborated, but is dividing debt into foreign and domestic really the best approach? Wouldn’t it be clearer to divide it by denomination—local currency vs. foreign currency? I think (though I’m not sure) that a dollar debt is the same regardless of whether it’s classified as foreign or local. As usual, my understanding may be wrong, so please enlighten me.

One more doubt: I heard that some debts mature based on contingencies—could that also be reflected there? Sorry for the many questions, but I really enjoy learning from you all.

No problem, I enjoy learning here too. When it comes to local debts, this Government has borrowed so much (around 21 trillion naira) but local debts are less risky because the Government can never run out of naira, the Government literally prints naira but they don’t abuse that power too much else you get a Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, and even Nigeria (of 2022/2023) who printed way too much at a time. So I think for this reason, it’s good to classify our debts into foreign and local because foreign debts are more risky due to the currency factor and external reserves (offshore) are used for foreign debt servicing mainly.

This Govt has paid some principals or matured debts. They have paid back the Covid loan from the IMF ($3.22 Billion) and would pay back a maturing Eurobond ($1.2 Billion) in November. Most of these principals are not short term and were borrowed over 4 years ago at least.

So from your question, you are trying to seperate net reserves from Gross reserves. Our net reserves according to the CBN 2024 report, grew from $3.99 Billion as at December 2023 to $23.19 Billion as at December 2024. Net reserves are reserves free of all those debts, bank swaps and liabilities you wrote about. So the reserves had $23.19 Billion as at end of 2024 which is about 7 months of import cover (IMF says anything above 6 months is good). The net reserves may have grown further this year but we may have to wait for CBN report by end of the year to officially confirm this.

ositadima1:
Our astute GeneralDae said that rising treasury levels are a good sign. You people are the best, but I still have my doubts.

Is it possible for treasuries to rise alongside increasing debts? If we consider debt per treasury—similar to how Papa Ema likes to evaluate stocks (debt/equity) when buying—would that give us a clearer perspective?

I feel (though I’m not entirely sure, since these things are sometimes beyond my comprehension) that if treasury reserves are increasing while debts are falling, then maybe we can say the government is doing a great job.

How much foreign debt has this Govt added since 2023? Not up to $3 Billion.

We are currently at $45 Billion from $43 Billion on May 2023.

At thesame time the FX reserve has grown from around $35 Billion on May 2023 to $41 Billion today.

mikeapollo:
My friend, I am not in support of the reckless devaluation. Try and read from the beginning to understand the discussions better.
My point is that is it would better to ban importation of some non-essential items to reduce dollar demand, instead of devaluing the naira sharply the way it was done.
Some people were spreading some fantasy ideas about devaluation and subsidizing the dollar, and I made them understand that another reason the govt did that reckless and irresponsible devaluation was for them to get more naira revenue (from exports), partly on the budget (and possibly to loot in corrupt deals e.g. the opaque Lagos-Calabar road contract), even though we are not feeling any tangible benefits from the increased revenue in the hands of govt.
So try and get the genesis

But weren’t 47 items already banned by Emiefele at that time?

Resurgent2016:
Wait till after the loan repayment due in Nov. If Naira holds steady past that date, the only thing that threatens FX will be election.

True but with rising reserves (and possibly rising net reserves), I don’t think that loan would be so much of a problem in the FX market come November (if the reserves keep rising).

GeeKudi:
What would you have done differently at the time he took over? Majority of Nigerians voted for the those immediate decisions he took when he took over. They endorsed those decisions by giving majority votes to all candidates who campaigned on those points. Candidates like Sowore etc who campaigned agaisnt those steps got little to no vote.
We can play politics of "he is not my candidate and so I must always antagonize him" but on a forum of supposedly enlightened folks like this, one who expect some truthful submissions devoid of such partisanship. Tinubu has shown leadership, he has demonstrated uncommon courage and put his political career on the line to prevent Nigeria from going down. Personally, I have no reason to look for any other person to vote for.

Exactly. This is where we were as at September 2023 when the naira was approaching over 1000/$ for the first time.
There was real scarcity of forex for businesses and we were going down already such that letters of credit for imports were already been rejected. We were thinking of selling our stakes in NLNG to raise $10 Billion at the time but that would have been tricky.
We needed to convince investors that monies trapped in Billions of dollars due to FX backlogs would be paid back in order to bring back FPI’s which were very low. At this point the FMDQ was getting an average of $30 million a day ( down from the usual $200 million a day). It was a crises and only heavy borrowing ($10 Billion and above) would have steadied the ship if we were to maintain an FX rate below 1000 at that stage.

mikeapollo:
I am not even talking about Nigerian govts alone. All over Africa and developing countries, all the progressive govts. do gradual, piece-meal, phased devaluation in order to be able to manage the dislocations. There is no country that did what the man in Abuja did (reckless floating and subsidy removal that has been able to recover and achieve purchase power parity with the dollar, as the earlier OP mentioned. It will not happen.
With a weak industrial base, we need to incentivize local producers to produce more. I expected the govt to ban importation of some non-essential items to reduce the pressure on the naira, and then do a gradual, piecemeal management of the exchange rate to avoid the harsh effects of a reckless floatation.

But ban of selected imported items was in
place from 2016 to 2023. It didn’t stop the slide of the naira in those years and only expanded the black market. This selective removal you talk about means little to nothing if your net reserves are low. The only way you can selectively remove is to borrow heavily from IMF like Argentina just did as they selectively removed their peg but they are on net negative reserves.