₦airaland Forum

@ Gees, did you just mention Nestle? My broker was telling me to buy some today, but you may know better than he does, so spill the beans man.

But i am still surprised at a bank like UBA, they are still losing steam in the middle of a bull run?
Are we sure there is not more to this than meets the eye?

Access bank having made the kind of profit they declared last time will be hard pressed to sustain the tempo, this will mean that we may see a 'large' profit next time and folks reentering with their returned money can easily push the stock to 3ound N35.

I will hang on my access for now.

@ all, does any body know where orient petroleum has its site? I can go there and give us all a sitation report.

@easimoni, baba my respects! But dont you think some other poeple will be stuying that last year trend and are goading us in to belive the same trend patterns and just sweep the carpets off our feets at the last minute?

My two penny ooo.

@ Shigidi, why not try an insurance stock, they are lifting up to a level before they start their round of POs. I still think many of them will do a fifty percent in Q1 2008.

@Savylanre, i feel your pain about the little allocation, that is not even the bad news about PO s, i think it is their lack of care in fastening the process thereby tying peoples money down for ages while other guys are having a party at the secondary market. Its hard to stomach, meanwhile, i will buy my next PO after the next two years.

Maybe by the the regulatory bodies must have gotten their acts together.

I think this bullish run is about to fade away for a few profit takers to do a little dance this early in the year.
The momentum traders are advised to keep cash ready for a pounce as things move south.

Like someone said earlier, UBA make a good buy at the moment.

question:
@ Invisible, with all the milk and honey flowing in the banking sector you are suggesting ONLY 3 BANKS? I think the banks should be about 50% of one's investment in NSE.
For me I have 70% of my portfolio in 6 banks.

@Question, I am a partaker of bank goodies, I support what you say and that’s why the banks I chose are to be bought massively. More massively than others, and that should bring us to the issue of  percentage of the portfolio each share should cover.

I was reviewing my exploits in the stock market in 2007 and has come to the following thoughts, please read them and criticize me if am wrong or pass your general comment as a guide to future portfolio constructions and reconfigurations, thank you all.

There has been much argument about how an ideal portfolio should look like, like how many stocks should an investor hold. Many prefer to hold as many stocks as possible, like spreading out so thin than you have no ‘huge’ holding in any one company. The advantage of this is you are spared from ‘collateral damage’ in a collapse of any of the companies since you are ‘thin’ on the company. Yet you will all agree that in the event of a huge gain, like a fat bonus or a geometric appreciation, you will wish you have all your cash in that single company.

Some sectors have been identified to be more risky than the others, let us look at the building industry, the food industry, there is never going to be a time people will stop eating or building houses. So it will be assumed that companies operating in these sectors are ‘safer’ than, say the insurance sector, where a turn in govt. policy can turn the tables, negatively.

Let us return to the number of stocks an investor should hold, many stocks are good, because you always have some mail in your box every week. Cheques, annual reports, invitation to AGM’s, right issues etc. some people just love to visit the mail boxes and collect mails, it gives them some sort of control, a feeling of being important and remembered. Ask some retirees and they will tell you it gives them reason to stroll out daily, (can even increase their days)

I read somewhere that having many stocks in your portfolio is not the best of ideas. You may not be able to manage all of them effectively. And you will run the risk of hanging on with losers and you won’t sell since you want the ‘crowd’. The concentrated portfolio is good, since it is easy to manage, according to some investors.

So, what should be the ideal portfolio mix, for long timers like me? I suggest three banks, one ‘old’ bank (FBN), a second generation bank (INTERCONT. Or GTB) and a no hoper, like UNITY or SPRING bank. I also suggest at least two insurance firms, a large one(WAPIC) and a small one(LASACO). One food company should be considered, I am currently torn between NBC and Dangote sugar. One drug firm is good for the pot, but since NGC does some drugs, I will go for them as they cover some domestic products as well. A brewer is needed, and I will vote for NB ahead of Guinness, I have my reasons.
In the conglomerates sector, UACN or UNILEVER should do the magic. I will not forget to buy one really lousy stock, a stock that your broker should ask you ARE YOU CRAZZZZZY! Transcorp, and other bad stocks (top losers) make a very good BUY at this stage.

I intend to sit tight on these holdings and see what happens after one year, the dividends will be reinvested into the stock that paid it. Other incomes should also be used to buy from this my list. I will call them my top ten for 2008.

Comments are awaited.

Hi guys, I just returned from attending my brokers traditional wedding yesterday, (made sure the babe saw me throughout the occasion
I am sowing seeds for next year, or should I call it an investment in smooth transaction

@ Coolme, you can reach me at ojiego24@yahoo.co.uk

Indications from the market show that AP is still sustaining its accent to an all time high price in the oil industries. The company gained an N9.38 to top the gainers chart, while oil major, OANDO also chalked up N5.56, MOBIL N6.15. The bulls are still on rampage on the floors. I still cannot see any reason NB is losing around N1.24.

Intercontinental topped the volume charts, 85 million units and sold a value of 3.4b. oceanic a total of 70 million, 2.4 billion worth.

More reports later after I see the full price list.

@ Coolme, its very possible. Read the rights prospectus sent to you and find out how to go about it.

The market was so bullish today that I started to think that institutional investors are starting to take position this year end in anticipation of a bullish year.
All the insurance companies gained prices. In exception of UBA, all bank stocks gained prices, including Unity bank of all banks!

AG leventis is still flying, (could we ever get it at a lower price, below N4?) FCMB saved our blushes, added 85 kobo. Even Transcorp that was supposed to lose stayed stagnant. Surprise of the day was Nig. German, losing a N1.19.

What does the gurus think is the reason for this rise?

Intercontinental is still distributing their certificates, many are still waiting for theirs, a correct mail address helps too. Like having a mail box in the post office, instead of a common compound or an office. Chances of mail loss are reduced in the post office mail box. Wait for the certificate, it will come in due time.

NBC which lost about N2.92 today is being affected by the results which they released some weeks ago, which showed a flat growth. Ppl expected more from this company owing to its first and second qtr results. However, the remaining qtr will be good, so folks should watch this one and let the price go down a bit before taking position in anticipation of a good full year.

AP is still defying the odds and heading north, to the surprise of many. I see a fight for control as reason for this surge, Otedola may be trying to consolidate his hold on this company and the previous directors may not be too comfortable with this. This will mean a buy for them at any cost to instill themselves at the top of things. Prices will only increase, despite the condition of the company.

Things like that happen in some company where there is a fight for control of the board, the ‘small’ investor benefits from the sudden price surge.

The market was very open today and the only thing I have noticed is that ;

NBC lost 2.92

AP gained 8.93

those two were the top gainers and losers.

on volume m/benefits leads, followed by IBTC, Access bank, unity bank, intercontinental.

About Capoil or other high risk penny stocks, yeah they could be illiquid, but every investor needs to devote a portion of his portfolio for such stocks. This is because buying only blue chips has its own disadvantages.

@ Gees, the best and safest way to double your money is to fold it over once or to invest it on the good old NSE!

FCMB has added a .79kobo to its price to make it to 17.04, value hunter has seen the golden opportunity and are swooping in for an xmas special on the bank, me I wish it still comes down so I can make my own move before it starts flying.

About the oceanic issue and dividend, does anyone who participated in the po tell us if oceanic promised to pay anyone any dividend in its prospectus for the po?
If they promised to pay the po buyers, then they are duty bound to fulfil their promise, on the other hand if they didnt promise a dividend this financial yr, then expect nothing from them.
This is why i always tell folks to read and reread the prospectus before jumping into the party.

Has everyone gone on vacation here? Maybe to enjoy their NSE loot Please remember to post your secrets of the trade (tricks of the trade) for us to digest, I know you ppl have developed new tricks for 2008

Apart from first bank, access bank will be returning money to investors. They may not like to return the money cause they need it, but the authorities are not allowing them to keep the money.

If you take a million naira loan for a full year, the interest payments will be a N225,000 which could be split into twelve equal installments payable monthly. At the expiration of the loan, you will have to retire the principal.
Note that I was doing this calculation with a 22.5 % margin.

bigjay01:
this is on the assumption that the price of Oceanic will remain static whilst other prices appreciate? Sounds like wishful thinking or pipe dream at best. Remember the quote "I have never met anyone who could predict the future trend of the market - except liars!!! Bernard Baruch"

@ Bigjay01, that quote though a nice one, but still does not stop us from making educated calculations that will help in take advantage of short term market fluctuations.
It does not mean you can predict the market.

Take another scenario; do you know you can make money in an up market as well as in a down market? Those that sold Diamond bank shares at N19 plus three months ago bought it back two months ago at N17. Making a 2 naira profit even in the middle of a bear run?

You may not assume a stock price will be stagnant for six months (that will be abnormal) but when such abnormalities do happen, you can take advantage of it. Remember, you are not going to wait for only the stock, but keep your gaze at other companies, if the abnormal happens like it did in the case of Oceanic, (even fell to N26 at a point). You pounce.

@ Shigidi, I figured that next year’s price into the equation, supposing that after doing one or two trades, I came right back and picked up oceanic at the same N28 which I sold it? (Oceanic was selling for 28plus last week)

Good as this result will seem, large as this dividend will seem, I think it is still paltry compared to Oceanic's current stock price of plus N30.

What I am trying to show here is that leaving your investments for the long term is less rewarding than trading on the stocks. I remember selling my oceanic holdings at N28 around may-june this year and using the money for some fantastic trades, against my brokers advice, he seems to think oceanic is a forever good stock  

I bought some other stocks which have given me a 50% average appreciation, had I been waiting on oceanic, what I will get since then will be N1.02 for a full year?

Guys, comment on this.

bigjay01:
@All

Do you know why it is taking my broker more than 5 trading days (and counting) to get 20K units of Bank PHB from the floor. Is it to be expected or are they being lax about it?

Is it better to cancel this mandate and substitute it with FCMB (or any other stock?)?

Replies please

For me, I am placing an order to buy FCMB t its current price, before many ppl will find out the hidden value, but bank stocks now ? with the guardian newspaper publication of wed. 19th dec 2007 as forwarded by cashcraft. Look at cashcrafts website for further reading.

texas543:
On the toolbar, u will see insert hyperlink, this is directly above the smileys, just click it and paste the link in between.


Click insert quote on top of the message you want to make reference to

Thanks texas 543, I have gotten to the stage of seeing the hyperlink, but how do I lift the message I want to attach and use it with the hyperlink so it will not paste an entire webpage, I want to paste the link only.

Hasnt anyone seen the report at cashcraft, alleging that Nigerian banks are involved in all shades of maladministration, round tripping, embezzlement, arrogance etc. How do you rate the banks, there are probes and investigations being planned by legislators, NSE, SEC, EFCC, infact, everyone is queing upto take a pot shot at what is alleged to be the fraud of the century.

This reminds me, I was called by a friend (not an investor) and asked to go quickly and withdraw all my money from some named banks as the rumor mill has it that the banks will 'fold'.

Guys and Babes, just read up the cashcraft report as to gauge the authenticity or possible truth or half truths contained in the guardian publication.

Can someone pls teach me how to copy and paste links in this forum?

How do I copy an existing post as a reference to my post?

Help out a friend guys.

I don’t know if I will say am lucky or what, but having to buy FCMB at around N15 plus is a STEAL.