₦airaland Forum

Shma2022:
The bone of contention was projected data --- data from 2023 onwards. Yes. I said all the rates from 2023 were static. I was very correct, my my bro.

they are not static bru.... Are you blind?

Another L

Shma2022:
2022 is the actual data. 2023 onwards is projections.

yes I know.....that wasn't the bone of contention, you said the growth used was constant for all the years....which clearly it isn't..... Yet another common Shma L

rvp2018:
South Africa GDP in 2010 - 410B. Then 2020 - 350B. Now 410B. I dont see what magic you'll use to turn the tide. 2030 - 410B or even less.
That simple.
Kenya 2010 - GDP 45B. Now 115B. If we add similar period forward with same dynamics - I dont see why not - Kenya GDP will be 300B.
So to be precise - 2035 - kenya and South Africa will be near equal.

And this is not a strange phenomenom - it has happened to many countries in middle class - it called middle class trap.

And you're even luckier than say Brazil whose economy was 2.6 trillion dollars in 2010 - and now it's 1.6 trillion.

IMF/WB cannot predict such

According to the concept, a country in the middle-income trap has lost its competitive edge in the export of manufactured goods due to rising wages, but is unable to keep up with more developed economies in the high-value-added market. As a result, newly industrialized economies such as South Africa and Brazil have not, for decades, left what the World Bank defines as the 'middle-income range' since their per capita gross national product has remained between $1,000 to $12,000 at constant (2011) prices.[1] They suffer from low investment, slow growth in the secondary sector of the economy, limited industrial diversification and poor labor market conditions and increasingly, aging populations.[4]

From 1960 to 2010, only 15 out of 101 middle-income economies escaped the middle income trap, including Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.[5]

out of the horses mouth.... Rvp officially says he can predict economic growth and the IMF and WB can't

Shma2022:
Good. If you went through it, you'll realize the growth rate is static. Like for Kenya --- it's projected with a growth rate of 5.5% --- to 2027. That will be mathematically impossible to catch up with SA in 2027, or even 2030.
Kenya's GDP growth rate is dynamic.

But my logic towards this everything is totally different from RVP's. I believe SA economy will crumble. I'm not praying for it's death though, don't get me wrong.

I gave you my reasons as to why.

it literally doesn't

Look:

Also your reasons were that the EFF will be in charge in 2024, the only way you could come to that conclusion is if you are smoking some good sh1t.... The fact is the EFF are in real danger of becoming the 4th largest party after Action SA

Shma2022:
I've gone through it, and yes. If we stick with their methodology, we might catch up in 2090.

But that is different from my point of view. mark this quote.

their methodology matters.... Rvps delusional methodology means absolutely Bleep all.... But I'm glad you've seen the light.... And yes I've bookmarked this post

Shma2022:
Well, seems we're not on the same page.

Just pluck 10years - to date. Pick one institution: IMF or WB, drop there forecast for 2022, and let's check the validity and accuracy of these projections.

I did.... I literally just posted the link

Shma2022:
Bro, a link for this will help. I want to see something.

sure... Knock yourself out


https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/ZAF/KEN

Shma2022:
Confirmation bias.

ironic since I'm the only one posting actual sources and you post "trust me bro" arguments

Shma2022:
Understand the point! Don't be a buffoon.
I said don't over rely on IMF.

IMF is not God of projections. Use your brain and analyze the data by yourself. Where were you in 2011 vs now. Where was Kenya then vs now?
What are the economic growth rate trends...

Common sense.

What more do you want? I gave you IMF and PWC projections..... What have you cited to prove your argument? Absolutely nothing, you haven't posted 1 projection that shows Kenya ahead of SA

rvp2018:
So you agree with World Bank not South Africa Treasury.
Can you dial back and see what they predicted kenya will be now.
They predicted kenya will be here in 2030

that's the IMF and yes I agree because their growth projections are the same as our treasury

rvp2018:
Okay let halve the "problem".
You're agreed that South Africa nominal GDP by 2025 - will be playing around 380-420B - depending on usd/rand.
You're agreed that Kenya GDP by 2025 - will be 160-180B.

Once you accept that as baseline - we can proceed from 2025 to 2030.

Then 2030 - 2035.

Nope I don't agree

Shma2022:
CNN in 2013 projected Kenyan economy to be $107B, for year 2030-- that is funny right? Cos We passed that Mark at the end of 2020 -- 2 good years ago.

That was CNN... Most reputable. perhaps they didn't know the dynamics of our economy then.

the IMF economic outlook was updated October this year.... And you want to compare it to a CNN article from 2013?

Also how is CNN a news site more reliable wrt economic matters than the IMF? You smoking some good sh1t

rvp2018:
South Africa Treasury is not credible?
Kenya Treasury is not credible?
They are the most credible and make very accurate medium term projections - not wild projections
Face the reality

I never said it wasnt credible.... The IMF growth projections are the same as the SAn treasury

Shma2022:
---------------------

Confirmation bias happens when a person gives more weight to evidence that confirms their beliefs and undervalues evidence that could disprove it.
People display this bias when they gather or recall information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way.
Confirmation Bias is the tendency to look for information that supports, rather than rejects, one’s preconceptions, typically by interpreting evidence to confirm existing beliefs while rejecting or ignoring any conflicting data


-------------

ironic since I'm citing the IMF, WB, WEC, PWC and you are citing "trust me bro"

Post just one projection that puts Kenya ahead of SA before 2080...or just stfu and accept another L

rvp2018:
Sounds like a strawman argument to me. You enact a straw man called "credible institution" so you dont face the reality. Projection for next decade is easy - because we already know - south africa will not grow at all or at best just slighly - while kenya will be growing fast.

I'm asking you to cite your debate with an an actual projection from a credible source... That's how debates work......you can't site any since every single organisation shows the opposite of your argument, the IMF, WB, pwc, WEC forum all clearly show SA ahead of Kenya untill at least 2080....by which time Kenya has a massive population advantage

dynicks:
8

3 + 3 + 3 = 9
3 + 5 = 8
3 + 2 + 2 =7.........4( 2 full glass cups each)..2+2=4
3 + (1) × 5.........1 ( each glass cup half filled)..1×1= 1

= 8

this could also be correct

loosecanon50:
The answer is 23

3 + {(2*2)*5} = ?
3 + (4*5) = ?
3 +20 = 23

wine glasses are half full.... If they were full then 23 would be correct... Nearly caught me as well

Zonefree:
The answer is 25.

Red wine = 3
Champagne = 5
2 glasses of "half filled" drink = 2

3 + 2 x 5 = 25.

How does 3+2x5=25?.....did you ever learn BODMAS at school?

Promzy99:
Who can guess dis correctly Nairaland Academicians Over to you.

13

rvp2018:
So I should show you projection that kenya GDP will be 107B dollars in 2030
When it passed there in 2021?
Which projection is more credible.
South Africa Treasury and Kenya Treasury have medium term projections.
That basically should settle this issues.

But you want to go back to delusional of pre-2010 when South Africa was going to be this big giant.

And then it crushed!

Below is GOLD standard projection from South Africa own gov. Just extrapolate that to 2030.
South Africa will be STUCK. GDP per capita likely to come down to even 4000 - might even eventually go down to Lower middle class.

do you understand the words : "Show me a projection from a credible institution that puts Kenya ahead of the South Africa"

Ans yes the IMF growth projection is the same as our treasury projections

rvp2018:
Who predicted that South Africa was crushing and kenya was firing on all cylinders.
I have shared the best projection - from your very own treasury - that project 1.5% growth - just below population growth rate - for next decade.
At that rate - South Africa is hardly growing - will still be 400B dollars in nominal gdp- depending on USD/Rand.
I have also shared kenya projection - that for example - project kenya GDP could hit 160-180B dollars in 2025.

So really the challenge is to predict from 2028 - to 2032 - you just need to project further mere five years.

That I think is point where kenya matches South Africa - and overtakes it. I dont see why kenya cannot turn from 200B plus economy in 2028 to 400B plus in 2032 - if the growth is sustained - and nothing suggest it cannot - because the growth has been broad based, diversified and solid since 2003/2005.

is the IMF wrong?

rvp2018:
Who predicted that South Africa was crushing and kenya was firing on all cylinders.
I have shared the best projection - from your very own treasury - that project 1.5% growth - just below population growth rate - for next decade.
At that rate - South Africa is hardly growing - will still be 400B dollars in nominal gdp- depending on USD/Rand.
I have also shared kenya projection - that for example - project kenya GDP could hit 160-180B dollars in 2025.

So really the challenge is to predict from 2028 - to 2032 - you just need to project further mere five years.

That I think is point where kenya matches South Africa - and overtakes it. I dont see why kenya cannot turn from 200B plus economy in 2028 to 400B plus in 2032 - if the growth is sustained - and nothing suggest it cannot - because the growth has been broad based, diversified and solid since 2003/2005.

do you understand simple English?..... I said show me a projection from a credible institution like PWC, WB, IMF ect ect ect that do growth projections every year and show me one that puts Kenya above SA in our life.....

rvp2018:
Nobody projected CHINA, Veitnam, or the rest.
Credible institution is me and you.
I have worked for and with all those.

Dont be lazy. Use all that hunting protein to THINK.

Nobody can predict tomorrow but we all try our best.

Did anybody in 2010 predict South Africa was about to CRASH

they did... Decades ago, now go get that projection that puts Kenya above SA...

rvp2018:
Tell me which magic south africa will use to grow by more than 1.5%? I frankly dont see it - well unless you change ANC gov; Your best bet is to growing at 2% which matches population growth and maintain the current GDP & standard of living. Welcome again to middle class trap or rut.

Now tell me which magic will stop kenya from growing at 6-7%? I don't see it? In fact with Ruto on board - I suspect we could start hitting 10 percent soon.

You keep crying as Kenya tighten the grip.

When we began - Kenya was at 60B - now at 120B: you still think it's ridiculous?

show me a projection from a credible institution that puts Kenya ahead of SA in our lifetime.

That's what I asked

rvp2018:
Okay hunting boer - here is what your own gov thinks - South Africa Treasury 2022 MTBPS

OK and?

Shma2022:
If you fail to reason, you will end up posting this nonsense a million times. FACTS ARE VERY STUBBORN. Check a decade ago--- SA economy was 11times Kenya... $458B vs $43B --- 10 yrs down the line, it 's only 3times.. You don't need a rocket scientist to decompound this simple arithmetic. Just use your brain.

----------

I asked a simple request..... Just post 1 projection from a credible institution that puts Kenya ahead of SA in our life time........


Why is this difficult for you?

rvp2018:
This misplaced Boer anger really should be re-dericted to ANC and the blacks in south africa.
Those are the people you reckon are responsible for this sacrilegious mess.

You're looking for some odd prediction or projections.
1st projections or prediction are incredibly hard things to do.
Whoever did that prediction -pwc - must be hidding now - seeing how South Africa has totally collapsed the last 12yrs.

Now let look at medium term prediction.
This you can find in South Africa Treasury data
And you can also find in Kenya Treasury data.

Medium is the next 5yrs.

Without checking data - Kenya will be 200B economy.

South Africa from your own treasury data - will be at 400B.

And it's called the middle class rut or trap. You hit it in 2010.

Some of us were here in 2016 when Obaboon was claiming kenya 60B budget was over-estimated and should be 30B

Now we are almost 120B - and he has learnt to shut up.

can you read?

jl115:
Are you ret@rded? I said show me a projection from a legitimate institution not thumb suck figures.... Now go or stfu

It's a simple request.... Either you can prove your point with a simple growth projection which many legitimate institutions do or you stfu because you are talking absolute tripe

Shma2022:
It' s a matter of common sense. If you decompound that data well, you'll realize they just based their findings on the forecast of GDP growth rate... Bigger economies will still stand high.

Lemme give you an instance:

In 2005, your projected GDP growth rate was around 4.3% -- one of the highest! By then, your GDP was around $333B -- two years down the line, your economy shrank to $316B -- $329B respectively. You're now projecting your GDP growth rate for the year 2023 to 1.1%. let's see if you can achieve that. My projection for your 2023 GDP growth rate is -3%... Your GDP will shrink a little bit due to a lackluster economy -- rise in load shedding, poor governance, and pretty much everything brought by the ANC. And in 2024 --- I believe you'll have the aggressive Malema. He will grab back the land and reinstate the blacks. That will be a catastrophe for the South African economy! That will be the end of the reign. Your GDP 2yrs down the line will be paddling their own canoe. Boers will have very little to add --- and perhaps, just like Ghanaian daughters and sons of slaves in UK and US; you will be left seeking your roots in Europe. By then, your economy will shrink by more than 50% before reinstatement and growth start happening - That is 3 yrs down the line. Kenya by then will be having close to $300B.

like I said to rvp..... Stfu with this thumb suck nonsense and give me a projection from a credible institution that puts Kenya above SA in our life.... Like you said its common sense so even multi million dollar companies should be able to do it....

Here is an example :

Shma2022:
My bro, some things are beyond basic knowledge. Check Kenya's GDP trajectory --- compare it with SA.
In 2011, your GDP was around $458B --- Kenya was doing $46B. In 2022 (a decade later)--- Kenya has doubled, and south Africa is doing $50B less - in simplest terms, your GDP is in descending trajectory.
No projection has ever predicted Kenya overtaking Angola, but yeah, we did.

Are you ret@rded? I said show me a projection from a legitimate institution not thumb suck figures.... Now go or stfu

Shma2022:
Apart from danie visser and Sandra --- none of them are south Africans.
Also, danie has only 2 grand slam wins, while Sandra 3. So in total, you have 5 grand slam wins.

I am done with this topic.

Kevin Curren represented SA until 85 and won his all his majors long before 85...Frew Mcmillan and Bob Hewitt only represented SA and no other country.

Yes we are done... We've been done for a long time..... I've absolutely massacred you on this subject

rvp2018:
The angry hunter Boer
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-06/surprise-growth-makes-south-africa-s-economy-bigger-than-before-pandemic-struck?leadSource=uverify%20wall

South Africa’s economy is bigger than before the coronavirus pandemic struck, after growing faster-than-expected in the third quarter on increased farm output.

Gross domestic product expanded 1.6% in the three months through September, compared with a contraction of 0.7% in the previous quarter, Statistics South Africa said Tuesday in a report released in the capital, Pretoria. The median of 12 economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey was for growth of 0.4%. The economy grew 4.1% from a year earlier.

Full-year growth may also surprise on the upside. The central bank forecasts an expansion of 1.8% and the National Treasury 1.9%. For the nine months through September, an early indicator of where full-year growth may land, GDP grew by 2.3% from last year.

OK and?

rvp2018:
unadjusted real GDP. Now get us real gdp. If we use your logic kenya GDP growth will end the year at 30% - we are already 11% plus 5.5%

Dont hope for another 4% - that was covid recovery from -4 percent.

South Africa Economic Snapshot - OECD
GDP is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2022, 1.1% in 2023, and 1.6% in 2024.
Private consumption and investment will remain the main drivers of growth.

You can predict 0-1% for the next decade like the previous decade.

look it honestly doesn't help debating with you.... You are in your own world arguing things I didn't even say and thumb sucking things that are totally irrelevant.

Now like I asked, show me just 1 projection that predicts Kenya overtaking SA in our lifetime.... If you can't then stfu