Jpphilips's Posts
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 Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 1:30am On Nov 18, 2018 |
awelekiti:A kid comes online to rant because he thinks he can use google, I have just one question for you; did the privatization of Nitel give birth to MTN and Econet? Yes or no? 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 1:25am On Nov 18, 2018 |
awelekiti:You feel abused abi? Thats what illiterates deserve once they open their dirty mouth in public. |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 1:24am On Nov 18, 2018 |
AZeD1:Guess your father supplies 74% of Nigeria's forex needs abi? 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 1:21am On Nov 18, 2018 |
Acidosis:Your relatives work for NICON insurance presently really? You sure he is not a yahoo boy or a kidnapper? Its time Nairaland has age restriction. 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 1:16am On Nov 18, 2018 |
Kingspin:Your national oil company is in chaos yet it contributes 74% of your forex needs? Tell me any other establishment of state that contribute $500m to your federation account monthly, an amount that could go higher as crude price rises? I love what you are smoking. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 1:10am On Nov 18, 2018 |
Kingspin:So the radical change you need is selling the NNPC abi? |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 12:12am On Nov 18, 2018 |
dokie: Do you think the IOC's are asinine? What rate will you give them that will be competitive globally? They collect 40% to operate your JV's do you expect them to collect same when they have 100% control? If you give them more how do you implement your budget and stabilize your currency? Who regulates the industry to guarantee both of you get anything? 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 11:53pm On Nov 17, 2018 |
signz:Let me advise you for free, when you see a thread you don't understand, keep quiet and learn from those that have a clue, if that kleptomaniac Atiku suggested restructuring of the NNPC which Kachikwu is already working on BTW, it will be pardonable, but selling it outrightly is madness. NNPC is not just a money maker, it is equally a regulator, have you heard any country sold her regulator? Like the US selling FDA or NTSA, are you guys ok? Sell ppmc, Ok!!, sell the refineries, ok!! Sell our JVs ok!! But sell NNPC? Thats madness. You mentioned making cool fx, you think it works that way? How can you make cool fx from an industry you sold your regulatory powers? What becomes of your environment after making cool fx? You sell your stakes then go home to make cool fx, what a myopic individual you are, so foreigners will now control your resources but you want resource control for the Niger delta abi? You think these foreigners are here to protect your interest abi? Wait till they tell you that Nigeria doesn't have the capacity to produce 500k bbls per day. Have you heard about intl sanctions before? When you leave your soul in the hands of foreigners, when they comply with their countries directives what becomes of you? go and ask Zimbabwe, Iran and Venezuela how well it worked for them in that situation. How can a sane human being sign up for enslavement because you want to sit idly and make cool fx? How well did it work for you when MTN monopolized your telecom sector? Per second billing is not possible, does that sound familiar? You spoke of being a conduit of corruption, have you forgotten how the assets Atiku sold ended up? Where are your free trade zones Atiku concessioned? Isn't that corruption? Atiku sits at home collects 26% from all the oil and gas companies in Nigeria using the FTZ in the name of concession, what is he doing there that NPA can not do? Why do we need a middle man to manage something as little as ports? Is that not corruption? Meanwhile we are making trillions from Apapa managed by NPA. It is either you don't know what NNPC does or you are on drugs 5 Likes |
| Politics › Re: Atiku Reveals How Boko Haram Was Formed, Speaks On Nnamdi Kanu, Dasuki by jpphilips(m): 11:40pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
Xander85:You think Atiku is not a core northern elite abi? Continue f00ling yourself. 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: Buari Or Atiku For 2019 (don't Lie, Give Facts), Let's Know Our Fate From Here by jpphilips(m): 11:02pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
Meetinschool: IS BUHARI TRULY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ECONOMIC WOES? A lot have been said about Buhari, how he brought hardship on Nigerians, how he is responsible for all the suffering in Nigeria, is that theory backed with facts and global economic realities or the shenanigans of few individuals basking in the Euphoria of ignorance? Since I must make a choice between our present loud political gladiators, I armed myself with Economics textbooks and news archive, here is what i discovered. Nigeria an oil producing and oil dependent economy suffered a global economic hit called crude oil price shock it is the sudden drop in price of crude oil in the commodity trading market, it has occurred at different times in History nearly every decade. Countries that are hardest hit by crude shock are basically countries that not only produce crude oil in significant amount but solely depend on it as their foreign exchange earner. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth. What are the effects of crude shock in oil producing developing economies? Forex scarcity: Most developing economies whether oil producing or not, depend on importation to survive, where foreign currency becomes scarce, industries, individuals that have significant need for forex will likely close shops giving birth to the second problem unemployment then finally the master Recession. Unemployment: When industries no longer have forex to buy spare parts, can no longer afford raw materials, production slows, sales slows, profit eroded, workers sacked, since the volume of activities in the economy is directly proportional to the GDP, the GDP contracts and birth another economic monster Recession. Recession is a chain reaction of unpalatable economic events that shows the economy is not experiencing growth but contracting, lets look at the effects of recession, high energy cost (energy in most developing economies are subsidized one way or another) crude shock and eventually recession erodes government revenues till a point where it could no longer afford subsidies and other things it used to afford. In Nigeria where our Electricity Generation companies are subsidized, petroleum products are subsidized,you will understand that such partial or complete subsidy removal will quickly skyrocket the cost of living generally, transportation, cost of food etc are equally affected that leads to another monster called Inflation. Inflation: is defined as a phenomenon where huge bills are in search of few goods, how is that possible? when the industries that produce goods closed down, imports could not be sustained due to Forex shortages where will the goods come from? the absence of those goods while the bills remain triggers inflation, causes hunger and eventually poverty and devaluation of local currency. Devaluation is when global reserve currencies trade higher than your currency, of course you recall that an economy in crude shock first suffers Forex shortages, that robs the central bank (in the case of Nigeria) the ability to fix the currency at a reasonable exchange rate. The local currency is allowed to float along a band the cbn thinks may not be too hurtful on the economy. Forex ban is placed on certain commodities, debit cards like Visa, Mastercard et al are all placed on monthly transaction limits as a reflection of the reality of forex shortages. Okonjo iweala then finance minister and coordinator of the economy actually warned Nigerians in 2014 long before buhari came that the level of mismanagement will bring hunger to us, read here: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/171145-brace-tougher-times-ahead-okonjo-iweala-tells-nigerians.html If okonjo iweala saw this hunger in 2014, warned us about it, how can a sane person accuse buhari of bringing hardship? Between 2015-2017, all these happened in the Nigerian economy, then I asked "are we the only oil dependent economies in the world? why us alone? The answer took me to several countries in the world and I realized that other oil producing countries dont depend on oil alone, countries like Russia though the largest producer of crude oil in the world, has a robust defense industry that contribute significantly to its GDP, Russia equally enjoys large market shares in Gas distribution in Eurasia, by the time crude oil shock hit, Russia had over $400b in reserves, It became clear that the only economic move that could hold off crude oil shock and other global economic shocks is a robust foreign exchange reserves (Savings). Permit me to take you down our economic history, in 2008 during the global melt down, the then CBN governor prof. Chukwuma Charles soludo bragged that the Nigerian economy is immune to global shocks? That would have sounded ridiculous but it is true, what did he do? they launched an economic strategy called National Economic Empowerment And Development Strategy NEEDS. This strategy recommended that once crude oil is sold, the balance above the budget benchmark is kept in an account called the ECA, by the time that government left and another took over in 2007, both the ECA & Foreign reserve account held over $68b in reserves, in a $200b economy at the time, that reserve was significant enough to whither any storm that came the way of our economy, Much later into the crisis, Nigeria later relaxed its exchange rate to 155 to a dollar. now we know that Nigeria had in the past stood resilience in the face of global shocks with a culture of Savings. Global economic meltdown is worse than crude shock because in a meltdown, major economies are affected, capital flight becomes common in developing economies, crude oil customers reduce demand thereby pushing prices lower, the saddest part is that no country has money to borrow anyone during global meltdown, yet Nigeria Survived it with Soludo's brilliant strategy. A strategy that was blatantly refused by the previous administration when suggested by Iweala, recall that Iweala worked with Soludo in that NEEDS team. Fast forward to 2015, Three out of the top four producers of crude oil in Africa by their production, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt were all in recession even though Egypt does not significantly depend on oil but her economy was shattered. Algeria escaped recession because by 2014, just like Nigeria in 2008, Algeria had a foreign reserve balance of $90b in a $156.1b economy (57% of GDP in savings).You can see that the Robust reserve of Algeria was their savior in this modern crude oil shock era. The previous administration in Nigeria boasted of leaving behind a paltry $19b for a $500b economy at the time (3.8% of GDP), that amount is not even enough to pay for imports let alone absorb global shocks, so Nigeria can be rightly described in late 2014 as an oil dependent economy with no savings. How important is this savings? Lets take our research to the Second largest producer of crude oil Angola, just like Nigeria with no significant savings, Angola's challenges needs no introduction, let facts speak for itself Angola suffered severe Forex & currency challenges just like Nigeria. According to Bloomberg They not only devalued their currency, they equally allowed it to float like Nigeria's Angola devalued its currency as the OPEC member sought to revive an economy still reeling from the oil-price crash four years ago. The kwanza fell 11 percent to 187.95 per dollar by 3:35 p.m. in Luanda and depreciated 10 percent to 221.75 against the euro. The move came a day after the central bank allowed the currency to weaken in its first auction of foreign exchange since announcing it would end a dollar peg that’s been in place since April 2016.....BloombergBorrowing to fund Budget deficits, just like Nigeria, Angola has borrowed to the point of requesting a bail out from the IMF https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/08/angola-says-to-request-4-5-bn-imf-loan-as-crisis-lingers/ Unemployment Rate in Angola increased to 20 percent in 2017 from 19.90 percent in 2016. https://tradingeconomics.com/angola/unemployment-rate Inflation in Angola was a whooping 23.67 percent in December 2017, data on the national statistics agency's website showed on Wednesday. Price growth on a month-on-month basis rose to 1.47 percent in January from 1.2 percent previously. Poverty in Angola According to Angola's 2001 MPI, more than 77% of the population was multidimensionally poor. ... The latest available World Bank figure for income poverty in Angola, from 2008, shows that 36.6% of the population is income poor. Angola's population is currently estimated at 29.7 million. I can go on and on the list is endless, as a matter of undeniable fact, Angola just like Nigeria are the largest producers in Africa, they practically did not save enough and they were hit hard by crude price shock. to balance the analysis, it will be unfair to discuss those that didn't save without giving kudos to those that saved, like i said previously, Algeria saved a whooping $90b when the going was good, as such its economy was immune to crude shock. Russia like we said though had currency challenges during the period under review ostensibly because of western sanctions, Russia had over $400b in reserves by ending of 2014. Saudi Arabia was immune to crude shock not without little currency & subsidy issues ostensibly because of its huge financing of the war in Yemen, they were sitting on a comfortable $732b by the end of 2014. My country men, you can see that this suffering was brought upon us by mismanagement by the same people that are warming up to continue from where fate has left us, if buhari had $100b in our foreign reserve in 2015, we wont be hungry today, we wont lose our jobs, we wont lose our manufacturing industries, this is the truth that shall set us free! Some even blamed it on Avengers attack of 2016 Niger delta avengers was a non issue, if you noticed, I expunged them from my initial analysis, here is why; We were in crude shock from late 2014, Avengers struck in 2016, since 2014, your GDP wasn't showing any growth but retrogression or doldrums meaning you were heading towards recession anyways as a result of crude shock. If Avengers did not strike, OPEC would have asked us to cut production to boost prices, read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years So Avengers or any form of production cut at the time was a non issue. OPEC gave us production cut waiver because Nigeria has already declared force-majore in most of its crude oil export channels. Nigerian people, what is your present government doing to stem this tide that has shocked the fabrics of our nation to the Marrow? The vice president being the economic manager of the country Launched the ERGP, with it Nigeria even in recession was able to save $47b in our foreign reserve, at this pace, I have no doubt that this money will hit $100b in the next 4yrs, that is a guarantee that our economy will become immune to global shocks once again, not just crude shocks alone. (Algerian model) The moment that money crossed $40b mark, forex shortages disappeared, importers stopped complaining, manufacturers stopped complaining of dollar scarcity, debit cards relaxed their limits etc, that was a killer stroke in our economic recovery strategy, inflation immediately responded to the potency of the ERGP from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.23% in 2018. This reserve will boost investors confidence that the economy is liquid enough for profit repatriation, that is how the jobs will return, job creation is private sector driven, not govt. Among the three oil dependent economies in Africa that landed in recession within the same period, Nigeria was the first to exit recession, that was historical & mind blowing, despite fighting terrorism and with a massive population, we did it first before any other country. By Blocking loopholes Our Federal allocation that used to be a misery 311b naira in june 2016 is between 600-700b naira in presently. This volume if held steady will continue providing liquidity that will surely inflate the economy. Nigeria is building a Gas liquefying plant called the NLNG train 7 project, that will in a way increase revenue from Gas against depending on oil alone, there are other ongoing Gas projects like the AKK projects and other Gas for power projects, rightly put, the economy is being diversified towards gas. (Russian model) https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/nnpc-signs-agreement-for-seven-critical-gas-projects/ As you can see here, Manufacturing is gradually expanding, next will be jobs returning on its own https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/07/08/cbn-at-57-0-pmi-manufacturing-sector-expanded-in-june/amp/ We don't need Atiku's stealing to truncate an economic process already in recovery. In conclusion, I can state for a fact that the economic challenges of this country has nothing to do with Buhari under the circumstances he met on ground, we have a chance to fix culpability of blames where it rightly belongs on crude shock, or replace this government whose framework seems promising with another leadership of questionable integrity. Buhari is like a mechanic that was given a car to fix, only for the car owner to accuse him of being the problem of the car when he is yet to fix anything. We shall never go back to past governments whose inaction landed us in this mess in the first place. leadership in the past that we tasked to privatize our establishments, all failed save for the one that ended up in his pocket, yet he claimed to create Jobs? How many jobs were lost in that privatization scam where 56 government entities perished? Where is our NITEL, ALSCON, Nicon Insurance to mention a few? Leadership that claims to create jobs but his company PRODECO folded up? Leadership that claim to create jobs yet it was Buhari that sacked foreigners littered everywhere in his company, does an ordinary logistics company need that much foreigners? Leadership that is a case study for corruption and money laundering by the US Senate committee on Homeland security, Leadership that preaches restructuring but enjoys monopoly in Niger delta sea ports? Atiku is a walking scam, may we not walk into the scam called Atiku because of lies peddled and perfected by the same holocausts that landed us in bondage, every scam comes with a loud noise, say No to Atiku, we cant move from Abacha loot to Atiku loot at this perilous time. It will be very dangerous and retrogressive to have a leader that is in bad terms with the international community, remember that the united states is the Fulcrum of our war against insurgency, one will argue that if America doesn't sell arms to us we go to Russia, the world works differently now under Donald trump, ask yourself, why did Jonathan not go to those people when America sanctioned him under the Leahy's ban? Yet he sat idly and watched Boko haram slaughter tens of thousands eventually took LGA's? American ban is as good as a global ban, recall how South Africa seized funds Jonathan wanted to use for arms purchase, please dont ask me what is South Africa's business with a US ban, that is how the world works. In 2017, the US congress passed a law called Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA to promote the America first agenda while sanctioning countries that do business with American's enemies. If Atiku (God forbid) becomes the president as much as thinks about going to Russia for help, Nigeria will end up in CAATSA web, and that is when the true Hunger will manifest. Can you live under a US sanction like North Korea and Iran? can you live with a Boko haram that is out of control? A boko haram that once bombed Abuja for fun but Today the once Almighty Shekau is in hiding? what about other support we get from the US like the USAID? free immunization? Polio prevention? HIV and AIDS vaccines? Machinery and oil and gas technologies etc? are you willing to throw away all these because of a criminal whose greed led him to commit atrocities in the United states or hate for Buhari that is built on lies? When faced with these realities, Atiku will never achieve anything, rather he will steal what we have left and disappear like he did in the US. May God help us!! Watch Peter obi summarize this analysis https://twitter.com/i/status/1058007016810123264 |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 10:48pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
AZeD1:I can't discuss NNPC with a blind individual that cant read, whats you expect Nairaland to be in your local dialect. 2 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 10:45pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
Kingspin:Sure because you don't know what NNPC does, why are Atikulators so dumb? 3 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 10:43pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
awelekiti:What nonsense are you talking about? Who told you Nitel gave birth mtn and others? Jeez!! Are you ignorant or simply retarded? Where is your Nicon insurance Atiku sold? Where is your Alscon? Shut up pls!! 4 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 10:38pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
awelekiti:Shut it, you must talk when you are empty. |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 10:37pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
awelekiti:What do you know about NITEL? 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 10:31pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
AZeD1:Can you please shut up? If not for Atiku and OBJ's scam, NNPC would've been like Shell in our JDZ with Sao tome, NPDC would've been steering our local production capacity if Jonathan and Maduele didn't divert their oil blocks, so if NNPC hasn't ventured outside Nigeria, blame Idiots like Atiku and co. 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 10:25pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
lereinter:Another illiterate on the loose. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 10:24pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
awelekiti:You must be an inmate of Kuje prisons to believe that nonsense you spewed, Nitel was leased to Pentascope by Atiku with a carte blanche to spend the $400m belonging to Nitel till date, pentascope doesn't have a sim card. The first time in the world a lease contractor spends money belonging to a leasee, Atiku is a criminal miracle. 5 Likes |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 10:08pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
AZeD1:If oil companies pay directly into the fed account, who determines what is sold and how much? Who monitors the service contracts of the IOC's? Who regulates the IOC's? Who provides petroleum products for you? You assume the IOC's are loyal and honest that they will declare in your interest abi? Go and read about NAPIMS and DPR before you disgrace yourself further. Libya is stupid to have LOC, Saudi is silly to have Saudi Aramco, Russia is a f00l to have Gazprom, China is crazy to have CNOOC & SINOPEC, Brazil is fvcked to have Petrobras, Malasia is silly to have Petronas, Iran is Atikulated to have IOC abi? When you don't understand what is on the table, shut the fvck up!! 7 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 9:56pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
AZeD1:Stop saying what you dont know, a multi billion dollar investment needs its assets preserved and security else Almajiris like you will balkanize it, you are comparing the NNPC with Ajaokuta? Are you high on semen? Does it mean this generations knows nothing? 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 9:52pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
signz:Only a f00l will ask what we gained from the NNPC, what provides the highest forex for your economy? Your father's scrotum? 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 9:49pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
dokie:Do you really understand what it means to sell 90% of NNPC? So how does Atiku intend to fund his budget and maintain currency stability? With his Anus? Atiku is a junkie 5 Likes |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 9:46pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
AZeD1:Sure you didn't know Atiku tried to sell Ajaokuta too? 3 Likes |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 9:41pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
Tobi0123:Call Atiku 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 8:10pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
SpecialAdviser:NNPC still provide the bulk of your forex and national budget, Atiku knows nothing about this country. 15 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: I’ll Sell 90% Of NNPC If Elected, Atiku Vows by jpphilips(m): 8:07pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
Babygiwa: Everything he sold under his sham privatization either crumbled or ended up in his pocket, guess that US criminal wants a re-match. 9 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: Dasuki Writes Judge, Says He Will Never Go To Court Again by jpphilips(m): 7:42pm On Nov 16, 2018 |
mushystuff:Start by showing us the statistics even if you pulled it from your ars@ |
| Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by jpphilips(m): 10:44am On Nov 16, 2018 |
GonFreecss1:Anyone with a knowledge of the financial system will agree with you, but here is the problem pal, we make these analysis as if it is sacrosanct, it is not, the economy is driven by policies most of which are premised on global factors that Nigeria itself doesn't control. it may sound smart to keep TB proceeds in USD, at 360 naira, but that is something one needs to think about very carefully, again why Naira remains weak is because our import payments far outweighs our export or rightly put, we spend most of our forex on imports, now we know the problem, will it last forever? the answer is no. Nigeria currently is in pursuit of increased production levels in the O&G industry, Nigeria is equally gonna end petroleum products importation which happens to be our biggest import by Q4 2019, these moves are radical to our ability to earn and retain the USD. if Nigeria can sustain 360 naira @ $50/bbl, i have no doubt the naira in second quarter of 2020 should trade far below 360 naira, what will happen to those that saved USD at 360 naira by then? the policies are dynamic like i said earlier, follow it one step after the other. 8 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: Dasuki Writes Judge, Says He Will Never Go To Court Again by jpphilips(m): 11:47pm On Nov 13, 2018 |
engineerboat:You are lucky you are still alive to write love letters, may allah be praised flight officer Hedima killed by Boko haram and so many of his comrades that complained of poor equipment at the time didn't get this chance. Why is Dasuki not charged for involuntary manslaughter still beats me. 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: Olawepo Hashim Explained Why CBN Has Failed To Grow Nigeria’s Economy by jpphilips(m): 11:22pm On Nov 13, 2018 |
bilms:Instead of contesting for NURTW chairman, you are deceiving yourself. 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: Olawepo Hashim Explained Why CBN Has Failed To Grow Nigeria’s Economy by jpphilips(m): 11:21pm On Nov 13, 2018 |
IS BUHARI TRULY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ECONOMIC WOES? A lot have been said about Buhari, how he brought hardship on Nigerians, how he is responsible for all the suffering in Nigeria, is that theory backed with facts and global economic realities or the shenanigans of few individuals basking in the Euphoria of ignorance? Since I must make a choice between our present loud political gladiators, I armed myself with Economics textbooks and news archive, here is what i discovered. Nigeria an oil producing and oil dependent economy suffered a global economic hit called crude oil price shock it is the sudden drop in price of crude oil in the commodity trading market, it has occurred at different times in History nearly every decade. Countries that are hardest hit by crude shock are basically countries that not only produce crude oil in significant amount but solely depend on it as their foreign exchange earner. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth. What are the effects of crude shock in oil producing developing economies? Forex scarcity: Most developing economies whether oil producing or not, depend on importation to survive, where foreign currency becomes scarce, industries, individuals that have significant need for forex will likely close shops giving birth to the second problem unemployment then finally the master Recession. Unemployment: When industries no longer have forex to buy spare parts, can no longer afford raw materials, production slows, sales slows, profit eroded, workers sacked, since the volume of activities in the economy is directly proportional to the GDP, the GDP contracts and birth another economic monster Recession. Recession is a chain reaction of unpalatable economic events that shows the economy is not experiencing growth but contracting, lets look at the effects of recession, high energy cost (energy in most developing economies are subsidized one way or another) crude shock and eventually recession erodes government revenues till a point where it could no longer afford subsidies and other things it used to afford. In Nigeria where our Electricity Generation companies are subsidized, petroleum products are subsidized,you will understand that such partial or complete subsidy removal will quickly skyrocket the cost of living generally, transportation, cost of food etc are equally affected that leads to another monster called Inflation. Inflation: is defined as a phenomenon where huge bills are in search of few goods, how is that possible? when the industries that produce goods closed down, imports could not be sustained due to Forex shortages where will the goods come from? the absence of those goods while the bills remain triggers inflation, causes hunger and eventually poverty and devaluation of local currency. Devaluation is when global reserve currencies trade higher than your currency, of course you recall that an economy in crude shock first suffers Forex shortages, that robs the central bank (in the case of Nigeria) the ability to fix the currency at a reasonable exchange rate. The local currency is allowed to float along a band the cbn thinks may not be too hurtful on the economy. Forex ban is placed on certain commodities, debit cards like Visa, Mastercard et al are all placed on monthly transaction limits as a reflection of the reality of forex shortages. Okonjo iweala then finance minister and coordinator of the economy actually warned Nigerians in 2014 long before buhari came that the level of mismanagement will bring hunger to us, read here: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/171145-brace-tougher-times-ahead-okonjo-iweala-tells-nigerians.html If okonjo iweala saw this hunger in 2014, warned us about it, how can a sane person accuse buhari of bringing hardship? Between 2015-2017, all these happened in the Nigerian economy, then I asked "are we the only oil dependent economies in the world? why us alone? The answer took me to several countries in the world and I realized that other oil producing countries dont depend on oil alone, countries like Russia though the largest producer of crude oil in the world, has a robust defense industry that contribute significantly to its GDP, Russia equally enjoys large market shares in Gas distribution in Eurasia, by the time crude oil shock hit, Russia had over $400b in reserves, It became clear that the only economic move that could hold off crude oil shock and other global economic shocks is a robust foreign exchange reserves (Savings). Permit me to take you down our economic history, in 2008 during the global melt down, the then CBN governor prof. Chukwuma Charles soludo bragged that the Nigerian economy is immune to global shocks? That would have sounded ridiculous but it is true, what did he do? they launched an economic strategy called National Economic Empowerment And Development Strategy NEEDS. This strategy recommended that once crude oil is sold, the balance above the budget benchmark is kept in an account called the ECA, by the time that government left and another took over in 2007, both the ECA & Foreign reserve account held over $68b in reserves, in a $200b economy at the time, that reserve was significant enough to whither any storm that came the way of our economy, Much later into the crisis, Nigeria later relaxed its exchange rate to 155 to a dollar. now we know that Nigeria had in the past stood resilience in the face of global shocks with a culture of Savings. Global economic meltdown is worse than crude shock because in a meltdown, major economies are affected, capital flight becomes common in developing economies, crude oil customers reduce demand thereby pushing prices lower, the saddest part is that no country has money to borrow anyone during global meltdown, yet Nigeria Survived it with Soludo's brilliant strategy. A strategy that was blatantly refused by the previous administration when suggested by Iweala, recall that Iweala worked with Soludo in that NEEDS team. Fast forward to 2015, Three out of the top four producers of crude oil in Africa by their production, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt were all in recession even though Egypt does not significantly depend on oil but her economy was shattered. Algeria escaped recession because by 2014, just like Nigeria in 2008, Algeria had a foreign reserve balance of $90b in a $156.1b economy (57% of GDP in savings).You can see that the Robust reserve of Algeria was their savior in this modern crude oil shock era. The previous administration in Nigeria boasted of leaving behind a paltry $19b for a $500b economy at the time (3.8% of GDP), that amount is not even enough to pay for imports let alone absorb global shocks, so Nigeria can be rightly described in late 2014 as an oil dependent economy with no savings. How important is this savings? Lets take our research to the Second largest producer of crude oil Angola, just like Nigeria with no significant savings, Angola's challenges needs no introduction, let facts speak for itself Angola suffered severe Forex & currency challenges just like Nigeria. According to Bloomberg They not only devalued their currency, they equally allowed it to float like Nigeria's Angola devalued its currency as the OPEC member sought to revive an economy still reeling from the oil-price crash four years ago. The kwanza fell 11 percent to 187.95 per dollar by 3:35 p.m. in Luanda and depreciated 10 percent to 221.75 against the euro. The move came a day after the central bank allowed the currency to weaken in its first auction of foreign exchange since announcing it would end a dollar peg that’s been in place since April 2016.....BloombergBorrowing to fund Budget deficits, just like Nigeria, Angola has borrowed to the point of requesting a bail out from the IMF https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/08/angola-says-to-request-4-5-bn-imf-loan-as-crisis-lingers/ Unemployment Rate in Angola increased to 20 percent in 2017 from 19.90 percent in 2016. https://tradingeconomics.com/angola/unemployment-rate Inflation in Angola was a whooping 23.67 percent in December 2017, data on the national statistics agency's website showed on Wednesday. Price growth on a month-on-month basis rose to 1.47 percent in January from 1.2 percent previously. Poverty in Angola According to Angola's 2001 MPI, more than 77% of the population was multidimensionally poor. ... The latest available World Bank figure for income poverty in Angola, from 2008, shows that 36.6% of the population is income poor. Angola's population is currently estimated at 29.7 million. I can go on and on the list is endless, as a matter of undeniable fact, Angola just like Nigeria are the largest producers in Africa, they practically did not save enough and they were hit hard by crude price shock. to balance the analysis, it will be unfair to discuss those that didn't save without giving kudos to those that saved, like i said previously, Algeria saved a whooping $90b when the going was good, as such its economy was immune to crude shock. Russia like we said though had currency challenges during the period under review ostensibly because of western sanctions, Russia had over $400b in reserves by ending of 2014. Saudi Arabia was immune to crude shock not without little currency & subsidy issues ostensibly because of its huge financing of the war in Yemen, they were sitting on a comfortable $732b by the end of 2014. My country men, you can see that this suffering was brought upon us by mismanagement by the same people that are warming up to continue from where fate has left us, if buhari had $100b in our foreign reserve in 2015, we wont be hungry today, we wont lose our jobs, we wont lose our manufacturing industries, this is the truth that shall set us free! Some even blamed it on Avengers attack of 2016 Niger delta avengers was a non issue, if you noticed, I expunged them from my initial analysis, here is why; We were in crude shock from late 2014, Avengers struck in 2016, since 2014, your GDP wasn't showing any growth but retrogression or doldrums meaning you were heading towards recession anyways as a result of crude shock. If Avengers did not strike, OPEC would have asked us to cut production to boost prices, read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years So Avengers or any form of production cut at the time was a non issue. OPEC gave us production cut waiver because Nigeria has already declared force-majore in most of its crude oil export channels. Nigerian people, what is your present government doing to stem this tide that has shocked the fabrics of our nation to the Marrow? The vice president being the economic manager of the country Launched the ERGP, with it Nigeria even in recession was able to save $47b in our foreign reserve, at this pace, I have no doubt that this money will hit $100b in the next 4yrs, that is a guarantee that our economy will become immune to global shocks once again, not just crude shocks alone. (Algerian model) The moment that money crossed $40b mark, forex shortages disappeared, importers stopped complaining, manufacturers stopped complaining of dollar scarcity, debit cards relaxed their limits etc, that was a killer stroke in our economic recovery strategy, inflation immediately responded to the potency of the ERGP from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.23% in 2018. This reserve will boost investors confidence that the economy is liquid enough for profit repatriation, that is how the jobs will return, job creation is private sector driven, not govt. Among the three oil dependent economies in Africa that landed in recession within the same period, Nigeria was the first to exit recession, that was historical & mind blowing, despite fighting terrorism and with a massive population, we did it first before any other country. By Blocking loopholes Our Federal allocation that used to be a misery 311b naira in june 2016 is between 600-700b naira in presently. This volume if held steady will continue providing liquidity that will surely inflate the economy. Nigeria is building a Gas liquefying plant called the NLNG train 7 project, that will in a way increase revenue from Gas against depending on oil alone, there are other ongoing Gas projects like the AKK projects and other Gas for power projects, rightly put, the economy is being diversified towards gas. (Russian model) https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/nnpc-signs-agreement-for-seven-critical-gas-projects/ As you can see here, Manufacturing is gradually expanding, next will be jobs returning on its own https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/07/08/cbn-at-57-0-pmi-manufacturing-sector-expanded-in-june/amp/ We don't need Atiku's stealing to truncate an economic process already in recovery. In conclusion, I can state for a fact that the economic challenges of this country has nothing to do with Buhari under the circumstances he met on ground, we have a chance to fix culpability of blames where it rightly belongs on crude shock, or replace this government whose framework seems promising with another leadership of questionable integrity. Buhari is like a mechanic that was given a car to fix, only for the car owner to accuse him of being the problem of the car when he is yet to fix anything. We shall never go back to past governments whose inaction landed us in this mess in the first place. leadership in the past that we tasked to privatize our establishments, all failed save for the one that ended up in his pocket, yet he claimed to create Jobs? How many jobs were lost in that privatization scam where 56 government entities perished? Where is our NITEL, ALSCON, Nicon Insurance to mention a few? Leadership that claims to create jobs but his company PRODECO folded up? Leadership that claim to create jobs yet it was Buhari that sacked foreigners littered everywhere in his company, does an ordinary logistics company need that much foreigners? Leadership that is a case study for corruption and money laundering by the US Senate committee on Homeland security, Leadership that preaches restructuring but enjoys monopoly in Niger delta sea ports? Atiku is a walking scam, may we not walk into the scam called Atiku because of lies peddled and perfected by the same holocausts that landed us in bondage, every scam comes with a loud noise, say No to Atiku, we cant move from Abacha loot to Atiku loot at this perilous time. It will be very dangerous and retrogressive to have a leader that is in bad terms with the international community, remember that the united states is the Fulcrum of our war against insurgency, one will argue that if America doesn't sell arms to us we go to Russia, the world works differently now under Donald trump, ask yourself, why did Jonathan not go to those people when America sanctioned him under the Leahy's ban? Yet he sat idly and watched Boko haram slaughter tens of thousands eventually took LGA's? American ban is as good as a global ban, recall how South Africa seized funds Jonathan wanted to use for arms purchase, please dont ask me what is South Africa's business with a US ban, that is how the world works. In 2017, the US congress passed a law called Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA to promote the America first agenda while sanctioning countries that do business with American's enemies. If Atiku (God forbid) becomes the president as much as thinks about going to Russia for help, Nigeria will end up in CAATSA web, and that is when the true Hunger will manifest. Can you live under a US sanction like North Korea and Iran? can you live with a Boko haram that is out of control? A boko haram that once bombed Abuja for fun but Today the once Almighty Shekau is in hiding? what about other support we get from the US like the USAID? free immunization? Polio prevention? HIV and AIDS vaccines? Machinery and oil and gas technologies etc? are you willing to throw away all these because of a criminal whose greed led him to commit atrocities in the United states or hate for Buhari that is built on lies? When faced with these realities, Atiku will never achieve anything, rather he will steal what we have left and disappear like he did in the US. May God help us!! Watch Peter obi summarize this analysis https://twitter.com/i/status/1058007016810123264 |
| Politics › Re: USA Barred Buhari In 2001 Over Plan To Islamize Nigeria - Atiku by jpphilips(m): 11:17pm On Nov 13, 2018 |
waveman2:So you picked up your phone and verified this nonsense a teenager wont even believe? come on!! God has really tried for you, dont disappoint him by talking like a ret@rd not worthy of a brain. 1 Like |
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