₦airaland Forum

So Sancho is back to training. Hopefully he's now in the right frame of mind

Segedinho:
I understand the rigging part honestly.

My assertion is based on my view, takes as well as what I have witnessed.


I have seen just only one BAT supporter, since last year till date n his supports was based on the fact that he will be blessed on his emergence.

Truly both on call and otherwise...I have heard,seen n interacted with no BAT's supporter in Benin extended to Delta.

Of course it's only rigging that will give BAT votes. Abeg continue with your delusion.

In 2019, the registered voters were 84m

In 2023, registered voters are 93.5m which means an additional 9.5m voters has been added to the register.

This is a breakdown of the new voters registration

North West - 2m+

North Central - 2m

South West - 1.6m

South South - 1.5m

North East - 1.3m

South East - 850k


Let this be your guide in your permutations and combinations of new voters.

Donjazet2:
Let's put this theory to test. Last election, the "structure" on ground resulted in just 10 percent of the population voting.
This means a whopping 90 percent of the population were not part of that "structure".

Now let's assume that the massive sensitization about this election through the power of the internet and social media has activated a whole new 15 percent.

That's millions of new first time voters who are not part of any party or local structure but have made up their minds to go out there and thumbprint a ballot sheet for a candidate, does that aforementioned structure still hold firm in spite of the newly activated voters that overwhelm the previous structure?

You keep repeating the same thing over and over without stopping and thinking it through.

The whole population cannot vote as not everyone is of voting age.

The percentage of voter turnout in the 2019 election is
35.66 % with a total of 84 million registered voters and a turnout of 28.6 million.

Take note in your subsequent post.

Spy360:
60% at least

Anyone who has suddenly awaken in this political era is most likely because of PO. You can start with me.

Spy360:
Did you compare the number of people who voted to the total number of registered voters? There was total lack of interest. Those who voted were party members. And this was because there were no credible candidates. They were fed up with GEJ and yet, Buhari was no choice. So they chose to sit at home. This time, the political awareness is unprecedented. People now want their votes to count.

I can honestly tell you, I know many APC and PDP party members here is the SE who have decided to vote for PO.

Some politicians here even mix their party with that of PO. That's why they say his support is organic.

If they were fed up with GEJ, tell us why PDP won the SE and SS in massive landslide victory?

You do know that every election cycle, number of registered voters do go up especially from 2015 when we started having at least credible elections?

You will be surprised that at the end of the president election, total votes count might not even be more than 35m.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]So a man from Benue would vote a Fulani, instead of a Yoruba?

[/color]

Of course, it's very possible. Same way a man from Oyo will vote for Fulani Atiku over Yoruba Tinubu

izzou:
[color=royalblue]So who's votes did Obi affect in Benue?

Atiku?

I know Obi affected Atiku, but his participation affected BAT too.

Most people voting Obi outside the SE/SS, would have easily gone for BAT.[/color]

Why would they have gone for BAT though? Because he's a Southerner?

Both Atiku and BAT are muslim and BAT is even running on a muslim - muslim ticket while Atiku is running on inter-faith ticket.

Spy360:
To know how many people will vote Obi is to determine how many people are fed up in the present political situation. I tell you 90% of those will vote for PO.

The sign is the number of supporters he has despite being in a party without political structure.

Everyone was fed up with GEJ and PDP in 2015 yet PDP still clear the SE and SS.

Just dey play.

raumdeuter:
If Obi was not on the ballot and Ortom goes against Atiku then APC will have a big chance of winning Benue

Which is why I said Ortom is the only Governor of the G5 that has any weight and impact. The others are not in states where the race is competitive

Ortom is a ref in Man city vs Man Utd while the others in the G5 are refs in Man city vs Dundee United

If Rev Father Alia continues and maintain this momentum, APC will clinch Benue though the margin will not be much.

raumdeuter:
Even the supposed online and offline influencers for Obi will be for Atiku

Instead of Obidients fighting Reno, Deji etc it will be everyone vs Tinubu

The reason you dont see online presence for Atiku is because the online PDP are now in Obis camp. Imagine that Online Obi plus on ground Atiku vs Tinubu/APC alone

Rinu that was Atikulated in 2019 is now Obidient

FS Yusuf was also Atikulated in 2019, He's now Obidient

OasisX:


.... meanwhile, APC has won Ebonyi Governorship poll and NASS polls even before the Elections.


https://punchng.com/ebonyi-pdp-mum-as-inec-delists-party-candidates/

But there was a Supreme Court judgement that affirm PDP Gubernatorial candidate in Ebonyi.

So which order is INEC relying on here?

raumdeuter:
Obi might not sweep the entire SS but I expect him to win a few states there and Atiku edging him in 1 or 2

If Obi wins the entire SE and SS then it even makes it better. Remember every vote denied Atiku in the South is a win for APC

I expect Obi to win all the 5 SE states though the margin in Ebonyi, Imo and possibly Enugu might not be up to Anambra and Abia margin.

In the SS, I expect PDP to do well as it's a traditional PDP stronghold and I expect APC to pick 25% or more in most except maybe Rivers and Akwa Ibom.

raumdeuter:
Yes that is good, but don't concentrate too much on SW, rather that North we need to neutralize Atiku there as much as possible

The party is working round the clock in the North. We just need everyone to work together and victory is assured.

Segedinho:
Baba....forget SS ..

Election no too far again.

Theflint1:
In 2015 and 2019, Edo was under the control of APC, like you said, these permutations would be revisited post-election. APC won't get 25% from Edo State.

Okay sir. Bookmarked.

raumdeuter:
It's important to keep the Obidients enthusiasm high especially in SE and SS. Every vote denied Atiku in the South is a win for APC

The same effect Ross Perot had on George HW Bush in 1992 that made him lose.

The main fight is to neutralize Atiku in the North

Definitely. It's also a pipe dream that Peter Obi will sweep SE and SS. While I've always conceded that naturally Obi should sweep SE, it's going to be a different ball game in the SS.

Buhari actually got over 40% of votes in Edo both in 2015 and 2019 but somehow Obi will sweep the place that an incumbent GEJ didnt sweep. I also believe Tinubu will get at least 25% in Ebonyi, Imo and maybe Enugu.

In the SS, Tinubu will get at least 25% in Edo, Delta, Cross River and Bayelsa.

Anyone is free to agree or disagree sha.

raumdeuter:
Kwara is one of the states where Tinubu will have the highest percentage

Even Ja.rus who just returned from Offa said on Twitter said Tinubu can get as high as 75% in Kwara.

When I see some analysis I just laugh.

raumdeuter:
You guys on ground just neutralize the Atiku threat in the North.

The obidient are doing their part also needed to neutralize the PDP numbers in the SE and SS

It's all working together perfectly

There is massive door to door campaign currently ongoing in Lagos and other part of the country.

39 days is not too far sha, hopefully nobody will shout rigging if their permutations no permutate.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Was it affected by violence?

If it is, then iamoyindamola was right then[/color]

Your amala is not turning. Try again.

I mentioned Abiru election, you said because APC won in a landslide, I shouldn't use it as an example.

Oya let's use Sanwo-Olu election that he won in a landslide, you suddenly want to use it.

That's why I said follow the conversation from the start and not try to nitpick. I already said in one of my response to sodiq that there were pocket of violence here and there (which happens in most states of the federation's anyways) but that there was no full blown violence in Lagos 2019 election whether Presidential or Governorship.

If you are looking for full blown violence, Rivers or Imo would've been a better example.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Abiru = 89,000
Gbadamosi = 11,000

Na this kind result you dey expect violence, ehn?

[/color]

So because it was a landslide is the reason why there was no violence or what? I dont understand you.

Sanwo-Olu election was also a landslide, should we talk about that one also?

iamoyindamola:
I voted at igbolomu that's inside of agric
Boxes were stolen with thugs wielding machete, tell me what should we do in such process
Before that, we were offered money the ones that rejected were looked at with digust( the kind of do anyhow for here you go collect)

The law is vote and go home then you can come back in the evening to hear result, but comrade we were left running for our lives in the evening.
Why? I no vote for you na by force

Well I'm sorry about your experience.

I had friends that voted at Benson and Odoguyan and the report I got from them was also violence free and smooth

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Your Abiru's example no follow. Abiru was a rerun, that other parties didn't even care.

You have been right with what you said. [/color]

Abiru was not a rerun. It was a fresh election to replace Pepperito that died due to covid.

Gbadamosi was PDP candidate in that election.

Abiru was contesting against Gbadamosi, a former Governorship candidate in the state and who use to claim to be from "Ikorodu".

izzou:
[color=royalblue]Were you expecting violence in an election that had APC written all over it?[/color]

Izzou abeg abeg abeg

You can follow the conversation from the beginning and not nitpick my post.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]APC have spent more time attacking LP than PDP.

If not for anything, APC and LP should be looking out each other, since they are representing the South.

If Atiku wins, it would be very clear that Obi cut Tinubu ticket.[/color]

Same PDP that APC PCC called a press conference to attack Atiku and call for his arrest based on the SPVs gate?

Moreover LP are attacking APC more than they are attacking PDP, you expect APC not to return back their fire?

iamoyindamola:
Where in ikorodu i am interested in that one

Igbogbo 2

Infact i voted for Abiru in Ikorodu in 2020 and there was no violence.

iamoyindamola:
Then you must be in my location to know this

And that is why I asked where you voted in 2019.

I voted in Ojodu Berger in 2011, there was no violence.

I voted in Ojodu Berger in 2015, there was no violence.

I voted in Ikorodu in 2019, there was no violence.

Tell us where you voted in 2019 that turn full blown violence.

iamoyindamola:
Lmao as there ever been any election without violence
You are acting like you want to turn back time to confirm if there was violence or not

Were there some pocket of violence in one or two places in 2019, Yes but to claim there was full blown violence in Lagos 2019 election is a lie from the pit of hell.

You are not the only one living in Lagos.

Itsrm:
Lol, some of the Obi people takes are rather too optimistic

However, this Lagos thing seem to be everywhere.

For instance, no one will be crazy enough to even suggest that Obi will lose Anambra to Tinubu.

So when you keep seeing people saying Tinubu may lose Lagos to Obi, you have to pause and ask what they are seeing since they are the ones living in Lagos.

Their premise of Obi will win Lagos is basically hinged on "If most Igbos in Lagos come out to vote Obi, coupled with the Yorubas that will not vote Tinubu, Obi might win".

Election is just 39 days away sha. We will come back to this particular discussion.