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Politics › Re: Nigeria's FX Reserves Rises 17% In 18 Months by lionshare: 5:01am On Jun 24, 2025 |
This is stale or no news because gross reserves was about 40B by FYE 2024. |
Politics › Re: President Tinubu Commissioned 5,0000 Tractor For Agricultural Equipments by lionshare: 4:14pm On Jun 23, 2025 |
How can we roll these out nationwide in a way that avoids political or parochial bias, ensuring they reach genuine farmers rather than so-called 'portfolio farmers'? |
Politics › Re: Government And Naira Stability: Best Way To Stabilize Currency (opinion) by lionshare: 4:07pm On Jun 23, 2025 |
bigpicture001: Yes it's net open position, but this time not focused on the coys exposure to fix from. With the country, but from it's branches outside the country...
See, the main problem of the exchange rate is simple ,. Fx supply
It is either u achieve enough supply through production and subsequent fx export earning from within the country (perter obi's style) dou it create jobs
Or
Or you achieve fx supply though diapora remittances
Or
Through FG direct supply through it's foreign earning in it's international transactions
Or through grants, loans etc... All we know is the shortage of supplies of FX dat is the problem of the exchange rate...
So after much scrutiny, we realize that untrust of the monetary policies irregularities which breeds instabilities of exchange has made the huge foreign earnings of naija international firms like glo, banks , Dangote never to think of shipping in their funds into country for exchange to local business...
This has prompted just the FG and diaspora remittances to take the lion share of FX inflow Your points would be clearer with better punctuation. It also seems you may not be fully familiar with CBN's circulars, guidelines, and Nigeria’s macro trends, as most of what you suggest is already in motion—except the first point, which is unclear. It implies control over how local entities use foreign-earned revenue, which isn't realistic. FX inflows have been rising steadily since 2023. In March 2025 alone, inflows were around $9 billion, with $5 billion in outflows—showing improved supply. Our trade balance and BOP are positive, and the naira has appreciated by about 5% this year, signaling stability. From my view, the government is intentionally managing expectations and holding back full intervention to sustain long-term currency stability. This also ensures liquidity is available to counteract future market distortions. |
Politics › Re: NNPCL Raises Petrol Price To N945 In Abuja And N915 In Lagos. by lionshare: 3:30pm On Jun 23, 2025 |
Racoon: How can Dangote be reducing price of petrol but the NNPCL a government subsidiary with moribund refineries guzzling homongous TAM to no effect ) is jacking up its own? So much corruption and wickedness in this cursed government The increase remains inevitable as long as oil prices continue to rise. However, higher oil prices also boost foreign exchange revenue, which could strengthen the naira. A stronger naira, in turn, may lead to a gradual reduction or stabilization of local PMS prices. Moreover, Dangote’s new strategy—alongside the ongoing Nigerian crude allocation policy—could help narrow price differentials, enhance price stability, and reduce inflation, all of which contribute to overall foreign exchange stability. |
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Politics › Re: Government And Naira Stability: Best Way To Stabilize Currency (opinion) by lionshare: 10:02am On Jun 23, 2025 |
bigpicture001: There has been so much razzmatazz about naira stability by especially the business men, with the government giving it priority over a long stretch of time with almost nothing in the positive...
But then I ask does it mean top government economics policy. Makers does not know the simple trick that I know... For me, it quite easy if u do just one thing..
MAKE A Legislation that every Nigerian international firm must repatriate at least 30% of it foreign earned FX ...
That simply policy alone will strengthen the naira in an unbelievable rate..
Now , u all can ask me how.. If you’re referring to net open positions, then you haven’t been following the CBN guidelines to the banks; or if you’re referring to exporters, the arbitrage opportunity to keep FX inflows abroad no longer exists due to the narrow difference between the official and black market rates, as well as the relative stability. Unless, of course, your idea is novel—kindly shed more light. |
Politics › Re: CNG Buses: Uba Sani Declares 6 Months Free Transportation In Kaduna (Video) by lionshare: 11:58am On Jun 21, 2025 |
I believe you’re comfortable with being taken advantage of—the more efficient the government becomes, the higher the costs, because skilled talent demands higher pay.” integrity16: You can't really blame the masses for demanding immediate gratification especially when the president and his fellow politicians are preaching patience while they themselves and their cronies are living flamboyant lifestyle with Nigeria's wealth.
Let the economic austerity measures cut across all Nigerians starting from the leaders. We are not saying the global economy is not going through a phase all over the world, let the leaders identify with the suffering of the masses by spending public funds prudently.
You cannot have enormous socio-economic injustice and not get uproar from citizens. |
Politics › Re: Vat Generated Across Nigerian States, Q1 2025 by lionshare: 11:16am On Jun 17, 2025 |
richiemcgold: Lagos, Rivers and Oyo will always top the list as usual. My darling Ondo is like a student that refused to pass and also refused to fail. Since Mr Lucky became governor, Ondo has not been in the news for any good reasons. SMH I think you're right — I haven't seen much positive news coming out of Ondo lately. What's going on? |
Politics › Re: SERAP To Tinubu: Direct AGF To Withdraw Case Against Natasha Akpoti by lionshare: 10:48am On Jun 17, 2025 |
emkz: SERAP, you have always sued or planted in the media that you'd sue FG.
What has been the outcome of your suing?
You ask Tinubu to inform AGF to withdraw charges against Natasha. Fair enough.
Where was SERAP when Natasha went to Interparliamentary Union to say Akpabio victimized her?
Where was SERAP when Natasha went to BBC to say Akpabio scratched her hand suggestively?
Where was SERAP when Natasha went to Sky News to say Akpabio was Akpabing her and when she was reminded that she was suspended for shouting on the floor of the senate, she desperately wanted to change the narrative.
Where was SERAP when Natasha was adding spice to her story that we started questioning her maturity?
Where was SERAP when Oby and one FIDA woman went to fight with Onyekachi Nwaebonyi to disrupt hearing into Natasha's matter?
Where was SERAP when Natasha publicly said two persons were planning her assassination?
When Sandra Duru emerged on the scene, that was when Natasha started withdrawing from the public. Now that she has been sued for criminal defamation, she'd supply evidence for everything she had said in public. It is only fair.
If Natasha doesn't learn her lessons, society would have normalized Natashalization: a wanton desire to fabricate sexual allegations against men, embellish the stories, refuse to supply evidence and take people on a circus just to gaslight the public from scrutinizing her. Natasha held the nation to ransom since February. It is time she is held to ransom to answer to what she said. She who alleges must prove.
Those her usual disciple(s) who attack me here for asking her to supply evidence instead of rehashed accusations of "he squeezed my hand" and "he was licking his tongue while looking at my waist and said my husband was enjoying", I make it a duty to search for your usernames and block those of you whose 7-day block period expired. SERAP is acting like a PDP Sponsored advocacy organization. |
Politics › Re: PETROAN Kicks Against Dangote Refinery’s Fuel Distribution Plan by lionshare: 4:40pm On Jun 16, 2025 |
oshiokpu: lol, I saw this coming as far back as 2019. In fact I sat on an interview with the MD of Rain Oil for the final stage of their recruitment process and my question to him was what they plan to do to their business model when Dangote becomes operational because in my mind this was inevitable especially when you see Femi Otedola who happened to be a friend of Dangote divesting from Forte Oil. The MD answered me casually that Dangote will simply become their supplier but I wasn’t convinced. My take is that the end of fuel importation/Tankfarm storage/Fuel station as a business in Nigeria is near. It’s only a matter of time. Dangote will push most of them out eventually so they better start exiting strategically! Impressive foresight; I think it’s only a matter of time before dangote opens actual retail outlets. |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 4:12pm On Jun 16, 2025 |
chidiokay: lol ! now you are beginning to hallucinate, where did "too big for west africa" come into the conversation, Fiy it is richest economy in west africa.
i am not dodging, your valid is not just valid tbh. what data did you present
the minimum wage in your ghana is Ghs 539.19 approx. $45.70 and the price of electricity used in households in Ghana reached 1.78 Ghanaian cedis (GHS), which is 0.12 U.S. dollars, 24hrs light the minimum wage in Nig. is 70k approx. $43.75 and the price of kwh on band A is 209.50 i.e 0.13 usd not 20 hrs light oo
Please juxtapose "Cheap" again, i have done the maths you only spelt
Let me widen your horizon beta, Price hike or increase as govt or institution push is primarily an avenue to maximize profit dont let them bamboozle you [b]Methods and installations are the key drive of efficiency, optimal output and upscaled service not Price hike as they mischievously push[/b]no amount of price hike can make national grid transmit 5000mw 24hrs n the world wont hear gbooowaaah 💥 Most of our mega source of generating power are obsolete, 1st we need to diversify into renewable source of energy (might be capital intensive but they are more cheaper to maintain on the long run.
Affordability doesnt negate profit, invest in the right source with cheaper maintainance that will guarantee sustainance of optimal service which will also boost turn over rate. people will use more when its affordable
Real profit is in turnover rate not High price as they want us to believe Your whole Ghana comparison just flopped. You used Nigeria’s Band A rate—market reflective—and compared it to Ghana’s standard rate. That’s not how it works. The fair comparison is with Band B, which is still subsidized and sits way below Ghana’s. So even with lower income, Ghanaians pay more per kWh. That alone shuts down your “affordability” argument. Stop mixing things to look smart. Band A isn’t the average Nigerian experience—it’s the premium tier. You dragged the wrong data into the convo. I’ve dealt with your inconsistency, your emotional detours, and now this sloppy comparison. No more time to waste—this debate is closed. If logic still feels like witchcraft to you, maybe this topic isn’t for you. |
Politics › Re: Nigeria’s Quiet Economic Reordering, By Oritsemisan Okorite by lionshare: 1:13pm On Jun 16, 2025 |
Please, let more intellectuals emphasize this point so that those who rely on emotion rather than critical thinking may come to understand the profound nature of their intellectual poverty—and how this poverty perpetuates their distorted perceptions of reality. The most significant reform since 1960 has been the liberalization of foreign exchange and the introduction of the managed float regime. |
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Business › Re: Eroded Naira: ₦100 In 1960 Now Worth ₦1.1 Million In 2025 by lionshare: 11:16am On Jun 16, 2025 |
SarkinYarki: He is responsible for 80 percent of the devaluation , from 1960 to 2023 the Nigeria devalued to 600 Naira and in 13 months Tinubu devalued it by more that 130 percent in one fell swoop .. Which represents a larger increase: the range from 1 to 600 or the range from 600 to 1500? |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 5:50pm On Jun 15, 2025 |
chidiokay: why should Nigeria be richest economy in west africa and average in minimum wage ... are you really being logical
Like i said " cheap" is relative, maybe you should try digest that 1st and except you can give me an illustration of expensive in ghana or ethiopia, anywhere citing there minimum wage
Conversion of rate to juxatpose "cheap" is what is not tenable in "All". i can collate data to juxtapose richest economy, fast growing ... but " cheap" its debateable
As total removal of subsidy on fuel, optimise fuel production or enforce efficiency why should i believe market reflective price will guarantee stable supply when i know our transmission capacity and generation capacity are not adequate to withstand 24hrs supppy to All, why fool ourselves
What about corruption, will subsidy is gone just fix that. in a country where system and regulatory bodies are inactive how do we actualize consumption reflective tariff, or you think the world evolves only around cost reflective.
Under Tinubu have the price not being hiked, does it look like paying more improved anything, should i remind you how many times national grid collapse n why  You’re confused. First Nigeria’s economy is too big for West Africa, now you're shocked wages aren't higher? Make it make sense. You chant “cheap is relative” but dodge every valid comparison—West Africa, BRICS, income vs rates. You reject data because it ruins your narrative. Ghana pay more with less income. That’s less affordable. Simple math—not your strong suit, clearly. You cry about corruption and grid failures like that justifies broken pricing. It doesn’t. Pricing isn't the whole fix, but without it, nothing moves. Band A areas now get light. It’s not theory—it’s working where applied. You just prefer cheap blackout over costly progress. You’re not debating—you’re ranting. No logic, no structure, just noise. This convo’s done. Come back when you’ve got data, not feelings. |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 4:39pm On Jun 15, 2025 |
chidiokay: Alol !! Affordable is a subject of purchasing power which is highly determine by minimum wage, thats fact not me 
Nigerian economy as bad as it is the richest in west africa, therefore insinuating same income range is untrue and even a shame
You can't posit cheap in Brics or Us ... base on your useless naira value convertion i made that explicitly clear, Govt try to play clever esp. in this area
When it comes to juxtaposing their is no true value comparison without " Minimum wage" as scale of measurement ... countries with higher wages might pay more per kwh, But you forget they dont pay for darkness and "zapping" of units is non existence. you pay per use accurately beat that
You can compare prices all you want But you cant posit "cheap" using naira rate .., cheap is relative If Nigeria have the lowest rate, considering our Poverty rate should it have being higher ! egbami Globally Nig have one of the poorest electricity generation so why the heck should the rate not commensurate low
what data man, you can't posit ,"cheap" outside minimum wage. no prof. will dare Look, if you can’t stick to logic, numbers, and cold data, this debate isn’t for you. I’m not interested in emotions—I want real progress. Even by your own minimum wage standard, Nigeria is about average in West Africa. Yet Nigeria has the cheapest electricity at Band B, with Bands C and E even cheaper. Ghana, with lower wages, pays more. That’s fact, not opinion. Yes, converting wages and prices to USD for comparison is standard economics—no excuse to reject it. Electricity in Band A areas has improved. Our focus should be on removing subsidies and moving everyone to market-reflective prices. It’s better to pay a bit more for reliable power than to have cheap, unreliable electricity—or none at all. And remember, alternative power sources cost way more than grid electricity. So arguments about affordability need to be grounded in facts, not feelings or excuses. |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 2:26pm On Jun 15, 2025 |
chidiokay: You are the one just being illogical here, you couldnt even juxtapose "cheap" as your instrument of scale are not tenable
Affordable is what people pay without groaning, check customers on Band B who finds 20k per week on a interrupted electricity funny, can you pay it cheerful
You can't displace the true measure of affordability which is minimum wage and per capital income
Those Mint and Brics nation you keep reiterating check there minimum wage and per capital income .. what the convenience rate to pay $200, $300 bills do the same for Nigeria and lets see you validate cheap here You're dodging logic. You can't scream "unaffordable" while refusing every valid comparison. Compared to West African countries—same income range—Nigeria’s electricity is cheaper. You dismissed that. So I showed BRICS and MINT—richer nations—and guess what? Still cheaper. That’s consistency, not cherry-picking. You said "affordable means no one groans." Come on. People complain about bills everywhere. That’s not a measure, that’s emotion. Yes, minimum wage matters—but you're using it to block any real analysis. Countries with higher wages pay more per kWh. So what’s the excuse? You can't argue price without comparison. You can't ignore data and claim logic. Nigeria has some of the lowest rates regionally and globally. That’s a fact, whether you like the cost or not. Drop the goalpost shifting. Either debate with data or don’t debate at all. |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 12:29pm On Jun 15, 2025 |
chidiokay: One the essence of stats is for comparism, however my point is if you want to posit " cheap" dont use another currency rate
The only valid means to posit " cheap" in any country is the currency value and fixed minimum wage of that nation ... those are the valid scale
hope its clearer now You're shifting the goalposts again, because no two countries will ever have identical population sizes, household incomes, or purchasing power indexes. Even when compared to other West African countries—which typically have lower incomes—Nigeria still delivers cheaper electricity. And when you expand the comparison to MINT or BRICS nations, using population size or economic scale as benchmarks, Nigeria still stands out with the most affordable electricity. This is especially true for Band A rates, which are the least subsidized—indicating that the actual cost is even lower than what Band B rates reflect. |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 11:46am On Jun 15, 2025 |
chidiokay: I have given you a standard example, juxatopose and lets see
Generally in life, thinking progressive you compare yourself with people above you not people below
Most of the west africa countries you are so fixated on her baby countries to Nig. they even look up to us for handout no west africa countries have the resources/wealth of Nig. so comparism is unbalance even to them Initially, you advised against comparing the US and Nigeria, and now you’re taking the same stance again. Regardless, even when compared with MINT and BRICS countries, Nigeria remains among the cheapest, tied with Turkey. |
Politics › Re: Why Are Popular Nigerian Pastors Silent About Condemning Corrupt Politicians by lionshare: 10:22am On Jun 15, 2025 |
OneCandleAway: Also, if you are a pastor, you want to build a large church. You requested for donations of 1 billion nairaland. I donate 1 billion or more. Will you have the guts to criticize me if I'm in government? After collecting such a huge amount?
That's the case of RCCG But RCCG is not the only religious organization in the country; there are others as well, such as the Catholic and Anglican churches, and they should not remain silent either. |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 10:06am On Jun 15, 2025 |
chidiokay: it still doesnt addup, if you are comparing two countries, currencies will be the main scale but even at that we cant get a true value cos of value rate and inflation
for instance in america, You might hear a friend say he pays $200 for monthly electricity ... someone like you dash to your calculator n scream Nepa is cheap in 9ja
But thats not how to look at it, the average minimum monthly salary in the US is 5,455 the propensity to pay $200 in Us is soft
$200 in Nig is #320,000 whereas minimum wage is just 70k, people on band B in Nig pay as low 20k weekly × 4 its over monthly minimum wage ... so where is cheap  The comparison is between Nigeria and other West African countries, not Nigeria and the USA. West African nations share more similar socio-economic conditions with Nigeria, including comparable average household income ranges. |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 9:15am On Jun 15, 2025 |
chidiokay: On what basis/scale did you posit Nigeria electricity is cheap to consumers Using the Band B rate, Nigeria, alongside Ghana, has one of the lowest electricity tariffs in West Africa. |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 8:38am On Jun 15, 2025 |
Zeebuy: Regurgitating silly rhetorics that has no effect on the common man, that's what agbado bandits are known for.
Your so-called Band A and B has always been there. There has always been areas which receive longer time for power than other areas. The only thing your government did was to increase the cost of electricity in those areas, and then lump the areas together under "Bands". This doesn't mean they now get more power, it has always been the same. I believe you’re referring to the Premium Power Agreements (PPA) that existed before the introduction of the bands system, particularly Band A. Speaking as a consumer who has experienced both PPA and now Band A, I can confidently say that significantly more consumers are currently on Band A than were on PPA. So, the claim that the government merely grouped areas together without expanding coverage is simply not accurate. To further support my point, consider this: how many areas were covered under PPA compared to Band A? This information is publicly available, and if you took the time to review it, you wouldn’t be promoting misleading narratives. Is the system better now? Absolutely. Can it improve further? Definitely. Finally, the Band A system is more scalable and adaptable than the old PPA model. |
Politics › Re: He Demonstrated Ignorance In His Comment - Kenneth Okonkwo Replies Eno (Video) by lionshare: 7:46am On Jun 15, 2025 |
Ikaeniyan0: Governor Eno shouldn't have replied him at all I completely agree with you — he shouldn’t have responded to him directly. Instead, he should have sponsored someone else to challenge what he cares about, which is his former principal. That transgender comment also applies to his former principal. |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 7:43am On Jun 15, 2025 |
Yankiss: Can u guess an adequate reason please. We are itching for that. We ought to hold our leaders accountable. There's a huge difference between promising and delivery. Anybody can promise. Anybody can give logical reasons why they can't deliver. The problem is ability to act. The coastal high way is great. But if the entire budget had been resourced for electricity, I think we would have gone far. Ther are several critical projects on electricity which are stalled with no completion in like forever. Is it competence or resources that stalled them? Omoku power plant, Egbema turbine project, etc have been on the pipeline for decades, yet no closure after hundreds of billions of naira are sink in. Why no continuity in governance? The Egbema plant was earmarked to power 5 Eastern states. How much of the earmarked N15 trillion do you think has been spent so far? Can you compare that to the amount spent on electricity subsidies or other investments in the same sector? Also, besides the Lagos-Calabar road, which is a PPP project with counterpart funding from the government and the rest from the private sector |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 7:38am On Jun 15, 2025 |
Skudi: Nigeria can't get it right even if another government comes in whether obi or Atiku. Power Supply has improved compared to past administration. Na Atiku own worst way dey import generator during its own regime as vice president. All these politicians are selfish,they don't have Nigerians at heart. I’m not sure if people like the truth, but on this forum many have been attributing the improvement in power supply to the rainy seasons. |
Politics › Re: Lack Of Constant Electricity: Dr Ope Banwo Asks Why Should We Re-Elect Tinubu by lionshare: 7:23am On Jun 15, 2025 |
Power supply has significantly improved nationwide, particularly in Band A areas, which represent about 15% of the market but consume 40% of the total energy output, along with some Band B areas. However, unless electricity rates reflect true market costs, over 80% of the market will continue to experience unreliable power. The president should take the bold step of fully deregulating the power sector. Despite existing subsidies, the disruptions caused by inconsistent supply far outweigh the benefits of cheap, subsidized electricity. The entire market must be metered, with all consumers charged rates that accurately reflect the cost of supply. Power can be made available to everyone, but it comes at a cost. Moreover, as Band A areas expand, economies of scale could drive prices down, making electricity more affordable over time. |
Politics › Re: 2027: 2 Costly Mistakes Peter Obi Can’t Afford To Make - Temidayo Akinsuyi by lionshare: 10:50am On Jun 14, 2025 |
OfoIgbo: OsibanJo was never ahead of Obi's.
Starboy is just like Lagosboy. These are aliases adopted by APC miscreants. Osibanjowas already identified with APC and failure, so PO would have demolished him at the polls With Osinbajo in the saddle saty goodbye to the Christian votes . |
Politics › Re: 2027: 2 Costly Mistakes Peter Obi Can’t Afford To Make - Temidayo Akinsuyi by lionshare: 10:06am On Jun 14, 2025*. Modified: 10:48am On Jun 14, 2025 |
Bendeco02: For me, all the opposition should concentrate on for now is the way to stop or minimize rigging.
If rigging is minimize to a large extents then tinubu will never win even if two major candidates run against him.
If they can't do anything to reduce rigging in 2027, then both Obi and Atiku are wasting their time contensting.
APC will always find a way to rig or rewrite the results even if it should be by 1 vote difference if they relax.
If there is assurance that votes will determine the winner by 2027, the politicians that decamped and still decamping to APC wouldn't have done that. All politicians rig where they’re popular and disrupt the process if possible where they’re not popular—which is why you see some win their state, wards or region close to 100%. Btw this is not limited to Nigeria or Africa it’s a global phenomenon as far as politics is concerned. |
Politics › Re: 2027: 2 Costly Mistakes Peter Obi Can’t Afford To Make - Temidayo Akinsuyi by lionshare: 10:02am On Jun 14, 2025 |
bolaayenimo: That's exactly the message the writer is passing across to him. If Atiku really wants a better Nigeria and is not selfish, he should respect the opinion of the youths and let presidency remain in South till 2031 Which youths are you referring to? Were there no youths who voted differently? Were there no youths in the many states he lost? Or are you talking about the opinions of southern and northern Christians who felt threatened by the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket? What he largely received in 2023 were protest votes—unless he manages to repeat that feat, which I seriously doubt. But no one can predict the future. The reality, however, is that it wasn’t the youth factor that influenced the election, but rather the religious card—and given the circumstances, that’s understandable. |
Politics › Re: 2027: 2 Costly Mistakes Peter Obi Can’t Afford To Make - Temidayo Akinsuyi by lionshare: 9:54am On Jun 14, 2025 |
AMINDA: Tinubu has not captured the South, unless you're talking about the governors, not the electorates. Obi will defeat Tinubu in the South 10 times out of 10 if they contest together. Outside of the Southwest, none of the Southern Politicians were able to deliver their States to Tinubu, except for Wike and we saw how he did it.
It was the 5.6m voters from the North that made Tinubu president. Those votes no longer exists for Tinubu and they have potentially been gained by Atiku to a large extent and even Obi, to a lesser extent. Unlike 2023, a 3-horse race would be a disadvantage to Tinubu because he still does not have the South in his grip as he likes to think. Obi is still the face of the Southern candidacy. Tinubu ran on religion (muslim-muslim) in 2023, he cannot suddenly pivot and start seeking to run on region in 2027 just because he has squandered his Northern goodwill. Your analysis does not align with reality. In the 2023 election, the APC secured at least 25% of the vote in all South-South states except Delta, where they got 16%. This was despite significant challenges for the APC, including widespread anti-Buhari and anti-APC sentiment, a cash crunch, and controversy over the Muslim-Muslim ticket. Yet, they still managed this performance. Now, imagine what could happen in 2027 when none of these issues are factors—and with the presidency appearing more pro-Christian than Muslim. |