₦airaland Forum

paschu:
I seriously don't take his assertion on Naira so serious because I know he did not arrive at that decision based on his personal understanding of our economic context. He's only saying what he was told by his current advisers. As such, when the going gets tough I will expect him to succumb to the pressure of a superior advice. Again, I don't know him personally but I do know that lots of folks aren't willing to trust a man who handles the 2016 budget scandal the way he has done so far. But that's a talk for another thread.

kayfra:
They are factual words. Not everybody is religious about these things. So keep that in mind.

If prayer could fix the country, all the wishful thinking and vigils could have done something. Well newsflash! It isn't moving a pin.

alienvirus:
This is the kind of topict that should hit the front page unlike so Tonto Dike and Fani Kayode nonsense. Where is Seun and that lalasticlala?

paschu:
You seriously expect the words of this Government to be reliable? Well, I hope the change mantra does not include their economic assertions.

kayfra:
I don't want to encourage panic withdrawals, just want people to be analytical. There are pros and cons of devaluation. This is a major con for our country at the moment.

Buhari and Emefiele knows this which is why they are sitting tight. If they stress test those banks, the market will panic.

EastanPower:
Stop speaking negative words, it is well with Nigeria in jesus name!

mandarin:
This is the result of visionless leadership that Nigeria has experienced in the last 30 or so years. When oil price was up, we would have had all major infrastructures fixed and by now we would be concerned about wages and shelf any expensive major projects but all those saying change you want change you got are disappointingly ignorant of the impact of Jonathan's administration in not utilising the years of plenty in bringing corresponding developments.
@op, I know banks are in trouble but it wont get worse because PMB isn't a fan of devaluation and the VP also share the President's idea about who to protect in the market. So, banks assets will continue to be measured at the official rates but our importers and those who like to wear Brazillian hairs, drink French wines and wear Italian shoes will have to pay more or patronize the little available in the Nigerian market. I believe you have the understanding that the TSA was introduced to curb corruption and was not meant to hurt banks but it also shows that the backbone of our banking services has not been domiciled in the real sectors and bank CEOs have been busy galvanizing about the world in private jets without really growing the critical sectors of the economy.
Now, this is an eye opener that banks need to take risk management serious, look at how to grow the real sector and stop playing around their statement of financial position.
I think PMB is more focused on funding his agenda through loots recovered but I think a politically volatile decision is needed to manage the situation like slimming down govt payroll or rooting out all excesses including that of the two national houses of assembly retire all the old and unworthy ones at the civil service and cut down on its budget especially the half a trillion meant for the poor which can be reduced to about two hundred billions targeted at empowering aspiring entrepreneur and grow the economy.

Finally, we must have to admit that our habits could not have grown our economy, the way Nigerians are groaning because of the hike in price of versace and co is amazing. We have to learn to embrace our own things. Remember it will get worse before it will get better.

kayfra:
No easy way out. Let's speak the truth. We effed up majorly, and this is beyond political ideology or ethnic identity.

Short term solution is to sell some of our oil assets to improve our reserves but the value is in the tank right now and which investor will like to deal with the situation in the Niger Delta with armed youths?

Another way is for the government is by debt. Float a bond and let Nigerians in diaspora invest. How will they convince most people with what we know? I think this is already in motion.

Hand of God solution which we can't control is for war to break out in the middle east and oilgoes back up.

The rest are very long term but we have a crisis to deal with.

cckris:
APC people who talk before thinking.
You people hired Obama's campaign manager, now do in Nigeria what Obama did for America in 2008.

Mbediogu:
Dat photo reminds me of a Nigerian politician who took his clothes for dry cleaning while on visit to USA.
The cleaner recorded 4 shirts and 4 trousers. On coming to a blue Babariga, he was at a lose what to right. After some time he just recorded " and one blue parachute".

Elosky20:
he is a big GEJ loyalist.

Elosky20:
thank you. i love this thread.

modath:
.... see you ooo, still talking dalla! Let's do Naira, how much will that be in Naira?

Make I then calculate how many liters of milk & juice e go reach,..

Hehe. I am trying to hold value for you. A today's value, that is N15K at GTB's rate.
If you want to cash out today, you get half- N7,500 because it is drinks money. You do not drink alone do you? Lemme know.

modath:
EoD... This encapsulates it....

As for that false dollar scarcity theory, it was a knee jerk reaction to prevent the "beneficiaries" of the election dollar torrential rainfall/flooding from being able to do wire transfer out of the country!!!

It wasn't to create a false naira appreciation... Bank rate held steady at 197-199, why then would any rational + logical being swallow that theory

Nigerians however are criminal minded & they either kept them in safes or septic tanks, they also got couriers to travel with out of the country with cash...



*mic drop* ... I wan do vigil for oil price to rise ..cos without it, na OYO for naira stability & diversification of our economy.!

modath:
@ TonyeBarcanista ...

Since you are adamant about Putting the blame on Buhari & Emefiele, you are free to, cool if that's what suits you but I just need you to indulge me & answer two question...

1.How long can we keep financing out import dependent lifestyle perpetually without judgement day finally dawning on us as a nation??

2. Who & what will you direct the blame for Saudi, UAE, Venezuela, Angola etc current eco

LRNZH ... My takeaway from this debate is that the IB is truly a "Lucky" fellow, he created a giant & slippery clusterbleep & got out just in time before its implosion...

If the oil price decline had started in July 2013 & not 2014, OP here wouldn't be penning this rumination of his selective thought process.

Elosky20:
Thank you abeg, we need to address this situation once and for all. the negative effect of devaluation of naira on a consuming economy like nigeria is terrible:
https://www.naij.com/332430-naira-devaluation-effects-for-nigeria-and-nigerians.html
.
http://635.gtbank.com/2015/01/naira-devaluation-and-its-effects/

Elosky20:
you started this arguement urself, by laying the whole blame on buhari and CBN governor which is very wrong, Everybody under APC and PDP are to be blamed equally. bt majority of the blame should go to the former ruling party for failing to plan for the future appropriately, you cant compare the amount of foreign reserve left behind by OBASANJO(over $49bilion to the amount JONATHAN($30 billion) left behind for buhari. so i wonder why do u blame buhari.

madridsta007:
LOL. The Christian comment was, of course, referring to a story in the Bible- a book used by Christians.

Got it?

agabaI23:
Unfortunately you cannot compare two videos that were made under different conditions.
There is room for comprison whether for relaxation or not.

If you were interested in comedy, the issue performance wont be there.

You should have stated the performance indicators you are comparing....

Achuwa1:
Like i normally say,Gej has no hand in what is happening to Nigerian economy atm,,,,
he tried his best to save for the rainy days thru the ECA but the greedy governors then,amaechi,oshiomole & co. did what they had to do out of greed & tht is the result of what we face today,,,
i am really pained when fg.still give approval for governors to be collecting loans internationally plunging the future of their state into debt & the worst is there is nothng to show for the loans they already collected..
infact,during period when we had high oil price & they where having surplus in state allocation,they did virtually notn to improve lives of ppl in their states.
they couldnt even set up industries,private refineries,or mechanized agriculture,,,they just sat down like dundies & were receiving federal allocation,same time squadering & doing publicity stunts on tv..
Finally,Emefiele is using cbn to practice policies he read in books while in school tht has never worked in any country of the world..
its a pity & we miss NOI

TonyeBarcanista:
The argument is not for or against devaluation. In all honesty, I'm all for devaluation. But that is not the point here.

The point here is that our the Naira is going down because of the sharp scarcity of the dollar. This scarcity can be traced to CBN's policy of July/August 2015 that caused lots of people do do away with the dollar in the economy and created artificial surplus of the dollar. As at then, I predicted that such move will backfire. This is what we are experiencing now. It is the scarcity of dollar that has made the naira to appear almost useless in value.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-18/naira-hits-new-low-on-black-market-as-dollar-scarcity-worsens

Is CBN the cause of the current dollar scarcity?

The way you have put it that it is due to the earlier ban on Forex deposits by CBN leading to USD surplus is not true.

The answer can be yes if you say CBN refuse to give some importers USD for importation. But if CBN does not do this, our foreign reserve would have been probably in single digits today from importing goods we can locally source.

Devaluation is also not the answer. I gave you the link to another thread that should enlighten you and another poster even gave you the Venezuelan example where they devalued and today are in fear of defaulting on their debts.

So, I'm sorry to say that you're wrong on both counts. Admit it and learn from this experience.

To show how stubborn you are (to CHANGE ) , even the spelling of Emefiele in your topic is wrong and you refuse to change it after I pointed it out to you.

Obiagelli:
I remember arguing with you this topic then, today i must say YOU WERE RIGHT.

I must also point out that in 2008 that you mentioned in your OP, there was a huge reserve to leverage on hence the relative stability. From jan 2015 to April 2015 we lost close to $5 billion from the reserve defending the naira.

This fall is inevitable as long has oil prices remain low with our very small foreign reserve.

The scarcity of the dollar is directly links to oil prices since it is responsible for 90% of our forex earnings. Bottom line whether the government allow market forces or not, the number of $ coming in is far lower than our $ need for imports.

TonyeBarcanista:
Read again....

I said the policy that created artificial surplus of dollar in August caused reduction in dollar in the economy, which has given rise to the scarcity we presently face. Read the First and Second post...
And Do away with "insult"

Obiagelli:
I remember arguing with you this topic then, today i must say YOU WERE RIGHT.

TonyeBarcanista:
Thank you dear!
Your comrades keep arguing without catching the drift.
Lalasticlala FP please let's have more view

blackpanda:
This is just long epistle of trash!

The fall in naira-dollar exchange is not rocket science. Its simple: high demand + low supply = high prices. We are a mono-economy. Our only dollar earner (oil) has fallen flat leading to shortage of the commodity. Till we start increasing our exports or reducing our imports, the price of dollar will keep skyrocketing!

OP sorry your analysis makes no sense. And all your recommendations have already been implemented by govt!

TonyeBarcanista:
The argument I'm putting is that the artificial surplus of the dollar adversely affected the Naira and is hugely responsible for our present state of comatose.

LRNZH:

Can you imagine?
Surplus dollars crashed the Naira.
SMH

TonyeBarcanista:
In case you don't know, there is scarcity of dollar in the market and it is hugely responsible for the naira comatose. What is responsible for this?
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-18/naira-hits-new-low-on-black-market-as-dollar-scarcity-worsens
There is no need to be making noise for something you have bo idea about

TonyeBarcanista:
The argument I'm putting is that the artificial surplus of the dollar adversely affected the Naira and is hugely responsible for our present state of comatose.