Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 10:42am On Mar 13 |
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 8:12pm On Oct 20, 2025 |
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 7:05pm On May 22, 2025 |
Just to be clear, there was a court injunction prohibiting Fidelity Bank from selling the property but Fidelity Bank sold the property to Sagecom despite the injunction " Fidelity Bank Plc is currently embroiled in a significant legal and financial dispute following a Supreme Court ruling that mandates the bank to pay ₦225 billion in damages to Sagecom Concepts Limited. This case stems from a legacy transaction involving the defunct FSB International Bank, which Fidelity Bank acquired in 2005. FSB had extended loans totaling $3 million and ₦100 million to G. Cappa Plc, secured by properties in Ikoyi and Ibadan. Upon G. Cappa's default, Fidelity Bank sold one of the mortgaged properties to Sagecom in 2005, despite a court injunction prohibiting such action. This led to prolonged litigation, culminating in the Supreme Court's April 2025 decision, which criticized Fidelity Bank's conduct and awarded damages to Sagecom . Peoples Gazette Nigeria +5 Igbere TV +5 Nairametrics +5 Wikipedia +6 Peoples Gazette Nigeria +6 Leadership News +6 Leadership News
In response to concerns about its financial stability, Fidelity Bank has asserted that it remains a strong and profitable institution, with substantial capitalization and international operations. The bank is reportedly engaging in negotiations with Sagecom to structure a feasible repayment plan, aiming to mitigate the financial impact of the judgment . Peoples Gazette Nigeria Peoples Gazette Nigeria
Despite the challenges posed by this legal development, Fidelity Bank continues to operate and serve its customers. For more information on the bank's services and updates, you can visit their official website:[b]" NSEstudent: So Fidelity sold a property to a firm and court was pending the vacation of the occupiers.
The buyer sues Fidelity.
Court rules in favour of the buyer.
QUESTIONS
1. What delayed the issuance of an order to vacate by the court? 2. If ruling is yet to be made while the matter is still in court, are the buyers allowed to sue?
I am totally in support of the buyers here. I cannot buy your property and still be waiting to possess it for apparently indefinite period. In a letter dated May 20, 2025, signed by Adeyinka Olumide-Fusika, SAN, of M.A. Banire & Associates/Citipoint (Legal Practitioners), the legal team asserted that Fidelity Bank significantly understated its liabilities by reporting only N2.274 billion as provisions for litigation and claims—despite an enforceable judgment of over $129 million against it as of December 31, 2024.
A legal firestorm has erupted over Fidelity Bank Plc’s 2024 Annual Report, as lawyers representing Sagecom Concept Limited have written a petition to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), accusing the bank of concealing a multi-million-dollar judgment debt under its litigation disclosures.
In a letter dated May 20, 2025, signed by Adeyinka Olumide-Fusika, SAN, of M.A. Banire & Associates/Citipoint (Legal Practitioners), the legal team asserted that Fidelity Bank significantly understated its liabilities by reporting only N2.274 billion as provisions for litigation and claims—despite an enforceable judgment of over $129 million against it as of December 31, 2024.
The petition, addressed to the Director of Banking Supervision at the CBN, calls for immediate regulatory scrutiny of Fidelity Bank’s financial reporting practices, which the lawyers allege were “blatant and deliberate misstatements and misrepresentations.”
Final Supreme Court Judgment Ignored
The contentious litigation, originally filed by Sagecom Concept Limited in 2011 (Suit No. LD/1734/2011), spanned over a decade and culminated in a Supreme Court ruling on April 11, 2025, in Sagecom's favour. The courts consistently ruled in favour of Sagecom at the High Court, Court of Appeal (Appeal No. CA/L/494/2018), and ultimately the Supreme Court (SC/CV/602/2021). Despite these outcomes, Sagecom’s legal team said Fidelity Bank failed to reflect the liability accurately in its audited accounts. As of December 31, 2024, the judgment debt stood at $129,321,631.73, and due to compounded interest of 19.5% per annum, the amount had risen to $139,362,314.19 by May 20, 2025.
“By so doing, the impression was conveyed to its shareholders and the public at large that its liability on litigations and claims was reasonably within that range,” the lawyers said.
According to the petition, the “misrepresentation” conveyed the impression to shareholders and the public that Fidelity Bank's exposure was modest—just over two billion naira—when in fact it was over 90 times greater.
Alleged Media Manipulation
The letter also accused Fidelity Bank of attempting to control public perception through media spin and the top management of Fidelity Bank Plc of attempting to preemptively shape the narrative before enforcement actions commenced.
True to form, the bank released a follow-up statement titled “Fidelity Bank Clarifies Position on Court Judgment inherited from Defunct FSB International Bank”, portraying the judgment as an inherited liability dating back before Fidelity’s acquisition of FSB International Bank.
However, Sagecom’s lawyers insist the legal process was transparent and rigorous, and the claim that the matter is “inherited” does not absolve Fidelity Bank of legal and financial responsibility.
The CBN had earlier released a statement downplaying the issue, assuring stakeholders and depositors that there was “no cause for alarm” regarding Fidelity Bank’s operations. The CBN described the circulating reports as “misleading,” though it did not directly address the specifics of the Sagecom case.
In response, the lawyers urged the CBN not to “fall to the manipulation” of its supervisee and not to be complicit in what they described as a systemic attempt to mislead regulators and the public.
The legal team wrote: “It is our honest and sincere belief that if the judgment of the High Court which was delivered on 30/01/2018 and had therefore been in existence for seven years prior to the 31/12/2024 issuance of the Annual Report) and that of the Court of Appeal (which was delivered on 7/5/2021 and had therefore been in existence for about three and a half years prior to the 31/12/2024 date of the Annual Report) had been fully, truly, factually disclosed to your Banking Supervision Officers having the remit over your supervisee, it would have been most impossible for the said Annual Report to have been approved or authorised by the Central Bank of Nigeria for issuance and dissemination to the shareholders of your supervisee and the public at large.
“Since the final judgment, which was that of the Supreme Court, was delivered in the matter on the 11th of April 2025, no serious step has been commenced by us to even execute the judgment.”
They also offered to engage directly with the CBN prior to initiating enforcement actions, indicating a willingness to cooperate in a “reasonable manner” that acknowledges the CBN’s supervisory role.
In addition to the letter sent to the Central Bank of Nigeria, Sagecom Concept Limited’s legal representatives also informed the Managing Director/CEO of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) about the ongoing litigation and the substantial judgment debt against Fidelity Bank Plc.
The lawyers sent a separate letter dated May 20, 2025, copying the NDIC in the communication with the CBN. The letter, titled ‘RE: SAGECOM CONCEPT LIMITED VS FIDELITY BANK PLC & ANOR (JUDGMENTS IN SUIT NO LD/1734/2011; APPEAL NO CA/L/494/2018; SUPREME COURT NO SC/CV/602/2021),’ formally notified the deposit insurer of the significant financial liability that Fidelity Bank faces as its insured institution.
The letter stated: “As counsel for the judgment-creditor, Sagecom Concepts Limited, in the matter in the above caption, in which a quite significant judgment-sum is now outstanding against your insured institution, Fidelity Bank Plc, we have deemed it fit to put you in copy of the attached letter to the Central bank of Nigeria respecting the matter.”
Background
The dispute dates back to 2002 when FSB International Bank granted a $3 million loan to G. Cappa Plc, secured by a mortgage on a property in Ikoyi.
Fidelity Bank Plc is facing one of the biggest legal and financial crises in its history following a Supreme Court order mandating it to pay ₦225.3 billion in damages to Ibadan-based firm Sagecom Concept Limited.
The court ruling stems from a longstanding dispute over two loans originally granted by FSB International Bank to engineering company G. Cappa Plc in the early 2000s. Fidelity Bank assumed FSB’s liabilities during the 2005 banking consolidation. After a loan default, Fidelity seized collateral properties in Ikoyi and Ibadan—despite a federal court injunction—and later sold some of them to Sagecom for ₦350 million.
Sagecom later found a 2006 court disclaimer prohibiting the sale and sued to recover its funds, citing illegal asset transfers. After years of litigation, the Supreme Court ruled on April 11, 2025, in Sagecom’s favor, with Justice Adamu Jauro stating that Fidelity should not “benefit from its own wrong.” Justice Jummai Sankey labeled the bank’s actions a “deliberate disregard” for the courts.
The Lagos High Court initially awarded damages in 2011. That award was recently updated by Justice Olabisi Akinlade to reflect current economic realities: $139 million, or ₦225.3 billion using the May 15 exchange rate of ₦1,620 to $1. Fidelity is expected to contest the naira calculation at a May 19 hearing, though legal insiders say it’s unlikely to succeed.
The Lagos court awarded significant special damages in favour of Sagecom Nigeria Limited, the claimant in a protracted legal battle over a multi-unit residential property comprising several flats and two penthouses at No. 25, Probyn Road, Ikoyi, Lagos.
In its ruling, the court directed the second defendant, G. Cappa Plc, and the first defendant, Fidelity Bank Plc, to jointly and severally pay compensation to Sagecom for lost rental income.
The awarded amounts were determined based on the annual rental value of each unit, denominated in U.S. dollars or its equivalent in Naira at the prevailing Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) exchange rate at the time of payment.
The court’s assessment of damages took into account the specific rental values and the dates on which the losses were deemed to have commenced—ranging from November 2005 to December 2006 for different units. Up until June 20, 2011, liability was assigned solely to G. Cappa Plc.
However, from June 21, 2011 onward, both G. Cappa and Fidelity Bank Plc were held jointly and severally responsible. That liability remains in place until Sagecom either regains possession of the property or the original 25-year lease—granted to G. Cappa by NEPA in January 2001—expires, whichever comes first.
The annual rental values for the units ranged from $30,000 to $67,500 each. Specifically, Flat 5 was valued at $30,000 per year; Flats 2 and 8 at $33,750; Flat 9 at $56,250; Flats 1, 3, 4, and 6 at $60,000; Flats 7 and 10 at $52,500; and both penthouses at $67,500 each. These amounts are payable in U.S. dollars or their Naira equivalent, calculated at the Central Bank of Nigeria’s official exchange rate on the payment date.
The court’s ruling compensates Sagecom for the extended period during which it was denied rental income following the 2005 purchase of the property—a transaction later deemed to have breached an existing court injunction.
Damages are calculated from each unit’s respective start date until Sagecom either regains possession or the 25-year lease, which began on January 1, 2001, expires—whichever occurs first. Additionally, the court ordered that interest on the awarded annual rental values accrues at a daily compounded rate of 19.5% per annum, starting from each annual due date until full payment is made.
Bank executives are now negotiating a structured repayment plan with Sagecom’s legal team. However, sources close to the matter say the Supreme Court’s call for urgency may limit how much the bank can spread the payments.
“This is the biggest crisis the bank has ever faced,” a senior official said, “If Fidelity survives this, it will be because Sagecom shows leniency.”
Despite reporting ₦385 billion in pre-tax profits for 2024 and seeing a 140% surge in share price this year (closing at ₦20.80 per share on Friday), most of Fidelity’s earnings are tied to rolled-over loans, raising doubts about its liquidity.
No financial institutions have stepped forward to underwrite the judgment as of Monday. Experts warn the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may need to intervene to prevent systemic risks.
Fidelity Bank and its legal team—including Senior Advocates Kanu Agabi and Onyechi Ikpeazu—have declined public comment. Meanwhile, the CBN has remained silent.
Fidelity Bank, Nigeria’s sixth-largest by assets, is currently led by CEO Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe. The bank has faced prior criticism for aggressive loan recovery tactics, including a recent case where it was blamed for a debtor’s death.
While the outcome of the payment negotiations remains uncertain, one thing is clear: the repercussions of this judgment will reverberate through Nigeria’s financial sector for months to come.
https://saharareporters.com/2025/05/23/breaking-sagecom-petitions-cbn-accuses-fidelity-bank-lying-about-financial-status |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 1:10pm On Nov 11, 2024 |
Consolidated Hallmark Insurance Q3 2024 P&L and Balance Sheet (growth in equity is consistent with the Q3 2024 P&L)
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 12:16pm On Aug 28, 2024 |
Looks like Tantalizers has been dumped on people. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 1:09pm On Jul 29, 2022 |
RabbiDoracle: Guinness released their results today and they will be paying final dividend of N7.14.
If anyone bought at N15, this will be 500% at the current price of N90.
Add that to the dividend yield on cost of 47% for this stock. Imagine getting dividend yield of 47% (approximately 43% after deducting WHT) based on the declared dividend today.
So use this Guinness story as a solace when you see low prices and buy into it. It looks like Guinness made a mistake in the dividend they declared in their Corporate Action Announcement. Their EPS was N7.15 and they proposed a dividend of 47k in their financials. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 6:12pm On Feb 05, 2022 |
locodemy: I can see you are a value investor in the sense you want the company to be debt-free. Sometimes all these companies settle some of the debts through this medium( pushing share price upwards).
I will not be surprise to see this stock trading above #1 in this very year. A year of long term bull. I don't have a problem with a company having debt. I have problem with a company having solvency issues as stated by their auditors as shown in the snapshots from RTB's most recent audited results. The performance of the company and the performance of the share price are two different things. I have focused largely on the performance of the company which has been misinterpreted as having improved just because their creditors gave up on collecting some debts from RTB and wrote tit off. Once you agree that the financial performance of RTB has not changed and it is a good candidate for bankruptcy then we are on the same page. As to the performance of the share price I will agree with you that yes it has some upward potential as a lot of people have misinterpreted their financial performance and will not do a thorough analysis of the financials. This together with the low free float makes it a prime candidate for upward manipulation. I am harping of this issue not because I have a dog in the fight but to help people make a more informed decision on the stock. If you want to buy the stock because you think the financial performance of the company has improved, it has not so please don't touch . If however you see this as a trading opportunity and you think that the share will continue to go up and you want to enjoy the ride on the way up, All the Best.
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 3:22pm On Feb 05, 2022 |
locodemy: Well analysed but this was how those stocks that delivered 200% started.For the past 5 yrs, this stock has not produced a result like this.I think it is an improved result despite the huge debts.Their creditors may have converted the debts to equity.Who knows? We will get clearer picture from the coming Q1 result.For me, this stock is suppose to touch 50kobo and may trade above #1 before 2022 ends.I think more good results are coming in the subsequent quarters @ Rtbriscoe.It has done almost 40% in one week.We watch The only reason the performance seemed to have improved is that one or more banks wrote off debt of N2,237,884,000 that RTB owed. If they haven't forgiven this debt the company would have declared a loss of N2.1billion so operationally the company is still in a very bad shape and nothing has really changed except one or more banks decided 2.2bn is not recoverable from RTB and wrote it off. The company still owes banks N16bn and needs an additional N10bn worth of debt forgiveness for the shareholder's fund to rise to zero naira With regards to the performance of the share price, given the small market cap of the company about N350m and the misunderstanding around the declared results, it is possible to easily manipulate the price upwards and dump on unsuspecting investors. I therefore do not doubt that the share price can get to N1 even N2. I only pity those that will buy and hold the stock as they will probably lose all their money except a lot more of RTB's debts are forgiven by their creditors. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 5:15am On Feb 05, 2022 |
Deadlytruth: Improved earnings Earnings are not as good as they look. Buying based on improved earnings is a bad move if you ask me except of cos you expect all their creditors to forgive their debts. Share Holder's fund is negative (-N10bn) Supposed Improved earnings of N96.587m was as a result of Other Income of N2.294bn. N2.237bn out of this Other Income was Debt waivers (Page 8 item 8 of the latest financials). https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34936_R_T_BRISCOE_(NIGERIA)_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STATEM.pdf Implication being that if the debt was not forgiven the company would have declared a loss of over N2.13bn for the year. RT Briscoe still has outstanding bank debts of N16.5bn so it is still deep in the woods |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:36am On Oct 02, 2021 |
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:59am On Aug 11, 2021 |
The news provided the list of Banks with exposure to the refinery as requested dharpzee: Kindly note that this News is as at 2013!! |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 4:48am On Aug 11, 2021 |
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/144169-dangote-seals-n528bn-loan-deal-12-banks-refinery-petrochemical-project.htmlDangote Group on Wednesday signed an agreement with a consortium of 12 Nigerian and international banks for a $3.3 billion (about N528 billion) loan to facilitate the construction of a $9 billion oil refinery, petrochemical, and fertiliser complex in Nigeria. The deal is part of a $6.75billion debt financing arrangement to augment the equity contribution in the project by the group, which also has interests ranging from cement, to basic food processing, to oil and gas sectors of the economy. The consortium of banks include Standard Chartered, Guaranty Trust Bank, Access Bank, Zenith Bank Plc, First Bank Nigeria Plc, Ecobank International, Fidelity Bank Plc, United Bank for Africa, Standard Bank, Diamond Bank First City Monument Bank and FirstRand Bank. BabsO2: https://mmsplusng.com/blog/amcon-may-take-over-dangote-refinery-as-liabilities-swell/
Hope this will not hit some bank profits with impairment charges. Which banks are exposed to Dangote Refinery debt ? |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 8:39pm On Jun 15, 2019 |
Valueinvestor: Please what is the rationale behind the purchase of this stock. Probably there is something we don't know Probably looking for the next Chams, Courteville or Japaul. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 1:36pm On Apr 02, 2019 |
awesomeJ: Sounds like you're trying to convince people to agree with you so that you can be convinced yourself that you haven't made a mistake.
(No offence sir).
3k is superb on a 20k stock. The only issue is after collecting the dividend (13.5% yield net of WHT) It may be months, years or decades before you're able to sell and recoup your capital.
Cos I doubt if anyone would be willing to buy so much of it after markdown.
Meanwhile if this stock stays in the 20-22k range till qualification date, I'm wondering how it will be marked since 20k is the new floor. Just looked at Chams result again and the net cash on their books is N120k (after deducting the bank overdraft of N111.402m from Cash and cash equivalent). Implication is that they might need a loan of N150m to pay the proposed dividend. |
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 4:59pm On Dec 19, 2018 |
Yayira: Please tell me in simple English my latest status as I’m not with my glasses right now.. Am I now a shareholder or still a shellholder ? Has my ogas at the top approved the deal ? Conference call is still in progress. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 4:06pm On Dec 19, 2018 |
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 6:00pm On Dec 18, 2018 |
No attempt to mislead anyone here. The cash portion of the transaction was accounted for in my analysis. Kindly check and confirm. tiar: Wrong! It is a share and cash acquisition. Don't mislead others. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 3:33pm On Dec 18, 2018 |
onegentleguy: Given the proposed merger between ACCESS and DIAMOND, it makes some sense to run an in-depth but cursory review and analysis to find out who amongst the shareholders of the 2 are up for a better deal from it all. Put differently, where would be best for u to align with on the back of this merger?
"According to the report from both banks, the proposed merger would involve Access Bank acquiring the entire issued share capital of Diamond Bank in exchange for a combination of cash and shares in Access Bank via a Scheme of Merger. Based on the agreement reached by the boards of the two financial institutions, Diamond Bank shareholders will receive a consideration of N3.13 per share, comprising of N1.00 per share in cash and the allotment of two(2) New Access Bank ordinary shares for every seven(7) Diamond Bank ordinary shares held as at the implementation date."
...a quick math:
On the DIAMOND side of the curve;
Today's closure price- N1.04. ...hence MoS gap from proposed merger price = 3.13-1.04 = N2.09. Consideration price = N3.13 Cash allotment = N1 Hence allotment figure = Price consideration discounting for cash = 3.13-1 = N2.13. Allotment ratio fulfilling implementation date- 7:2 (7 diamond for 2 access) This means that post cash allotment, an investor's N14.91(7×2.13) worth in DIAMOND is EXPECTED to be equivalent to a N16.30(2×8.15) worth of ACCESS (assuming today's closing price of N8.15). But DIAMOND's current price is N1.04. ...and so with reference to this allotment, an investor's N7.28(7×1.04) in DIAMOND should complement a N16.30(2×8.15) value in ACCESS. ...the interpretation of this is that an Investor/trader who managed to KEY in at the pre implementation date should at the very least be entitled to a stake of 2 units of ACCESS BANK for just N7.28. ...or per equity stake(1 unit) for only N3.64 !! Which presents the plausibility of an already 114% ROI given ACCESS BANK'S closing price of N8.15 today. Even if the price of DIAMOND should appreciate to the allotment figure price of N2.13, there would still be an over 9% MoS discount[(16.30-14.91)/14.91] from the current price of ACCESS. ...and we have not even factored in the N1 cash figure. Add that up, and the chance of any possible return can only increase. (a likely 180-210% ROI).
On the ACCESS side of the curve;
We need to look at things in reverse view. If a shareholder who keyed into DIAMOND pre implementation date can(given the above computation) get an equity stake of ACCESS BANK with just N3.64, it makes sense to assume in part(given access' current market price of N8.15) that value accretion is less here. The best case scenerio would be to run an estimate in line with the fair value of ACCESS BANK, and do a repeat computation to see where there would likely be more 'gap' to tap from with regards to value. At my FV estimate of N15.50 for ACCESS and using a Mix of valuation model to weigh in on the best price post merger (after dilution), ACCESS' best price would come in at slightly higher than today's closing price. (N9.40 to be precise) Note that 'best price' in this instance refers to what I believe an equity stake of ACCESS should come to as an equivalent to DIAMOND and not necessarily the fair value of ACCESS.
Conclusion: It makes sense to believe that the chances of reaping higher gains is more with DIAMOND than ACCESS. ...and so UNLESS THERE IS MORE TO THIS MERGER THAN WE ALREADY KNOW, the shareholders of DIAMOND has got themselves a better deal ahead of ACCESS. So in the short term, I see a much better derivable value in DIAMOND than ACCESS. That said, there's also a high possibility of a great value with the latter in the long term, should this drive be effectively managed.
My advise: If I were an Investor with positions in both coys, I would look to book my profit from DIAMOND within the N2-2.09 price band and no more than N9.40 in ACCESS. This should also serve to guide ur target entries if u wish to KEY in. (read between the lines from the estimates above) ...but that's just me.
NOTE: The sole aim of this run down is to look in on which among the 2 coys offers the possibility of a better baigain in terms of price appreciation.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is purely information driven. ...and NOT a reference to any sought of recommendation !! Due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority. I am not a financial expert but I am of the opinion that the share exchange will be treated using the fundamental principle that on the stock exchange you cannot manufacture or destroy value so if you pay dividend or bonus shares your shares must be marked down. 1) The cash payment to diamond bank share holders will be treated as a dividend payment so Access Bank shares will be market down for the dividend payment. 2) Shares issue to Diamond bank share holders will be treated as a bonus issue by Access Bank and the Acess Bank shares will also be marked down for the issue of these shares. 3)Diamond banks shares (Diamond banks market cap) that are cancelled will be treated as a reconstruction and Access Bank shares will be marked up for the cancellation of these shares. Access Banks Market Cap post-Merger = (Market Cap of Access bank at cut-off date + Market Cap of Access bank at cut-off date) - Cash payment to diamnd bank share holders
Access Bank Market Cap Post Merger = Adjusted Access Bank Shares (i.e marked down or up) * shares in issue post merger
Shares in issue post merger = Issued Access bank shares pre-merger + (2 *Issued diamond bank /7)In effect the sharing formula (shares to be given to each shareholders) is already know but the value to be shared (combined market Cap of each party) is not know. The adjusted share price of Access Bank post merger will be a function of the final share price of Diamond and Access on the cutoff date.The increase in the share price of diamond bank works in Access Bank share holders favour as it implies that there will be less reduction in the value of the shares by virtue of a markdown. For Example if Access stays at N7.85 and Diamond rises to N5 Access pre merger market Cap = 28,927,971,631 * 7.85 = N 227,084,577,303.35 Diamond pre merger market Cap = 23,160,388,968 * 5 =N 227,084,577,303.35 Combined Market Cap = N 227,084,577,303.35 +N 227,084,577,303.35 - N23,160,388,968.00 (cash payment) = 319,726,133,175.35 Shares issued to Diamond bank = 2 * 23,160,388,968.00 / 7 = 6,617,253,990.86 Post Merger Shares in Issue = 6,617,253,990.86 + 28,927,971,631 = 35,545,225,621.86 Adjusted Share price post merger = 319,726,133,175.35 / 35,545,225,621.86 = N8.99 In summary, till share prices of both parties are frozen things are still fluid as per but Access gets 81% of the combined party while diamond gets 19% plus N23b cash Apologies for my long posts |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 2:53pm On Dec 11, 2018 |
ndidigood: Pls everyone,help me look into regal insurance,l don't do insurance since m trapped in staco since 08,but m thinking of trying to try my luck. A little write up I made on Regency Alliance. Not a buy recommendation. IntroductionRegency Alliance Insurance Group consists of the following; Regency Alliance Nigeria an insurance company in Nigeria, 51% ownership interest in Regency NEM Insurance Ghana, RIC MFB a microfinance bank in Nigeria, RIC Property and Investment Limited - a property and investment company and RIC Technologies an IT firm that provides car trackers for clients. The company is run by Mr. Biyi Otegbeye that owns an 11% stake in the company. The company has a 6 year history of profitability it has grown its shareholder’s funds from N3.88bn in 2013 to N5.5bn while it has posted a five year average PAT of N420m which ranged between N220m and N611m Financial MetricsMarket Capitalization: N1.33bn Share Holders Fund: N5.5bn Retained earnings Sept 2018: N484m Asset Base N8.6bn Liabilities: N3.2bn Last Financial Year’s Profit: N220m Latest Quarter’s Profit: N508m (9months) Expected Full Year Profits: N626m – N700m Price to Book Ratio: 0.24 Price to Earnings Ratio Backward: 6.04 Price to Earnings Ratio Forward: 2 Latest Dividend 3k Dividend Yield 15% Expected Dividend 3k- 4k Expected Dividend Yield 15% - 20% Finance Cost: N/A Free Float: 78.6% Share Price Year High 50k Share Price Year Low 20k Share Price 5 Year High 50k Share Price 5 Year Low 20k Bull Points 1. We expect an improvement in Profit after Tax (PAT) N660m compared to last year N220m. Full year PAT 2018 is expected to be 300% that of 2017. 2. The expected dividend yield 15%- 20% is expected to be one of the highest in the industry for 2018. 3. The forward PE Ratio is pretty low given the a forecast of about 2 which suggest that the stock is very cheap 4. Technically the stock is at the floor price and under normal circumstances cannot fall below this level which protects against capital loss 5. The company is in a stable financial position with little risk of financial distress 6. The company was able to profitable operate during the previous recession in the economy 7. Company stands to profit from the increase of interest rates expected in the economy 8. The company has a history of paying dividends over a five year period 9. The company has been profitable over a 5 year period and has paid dividends over this period 10. The company is a viable takeover candidate given the free float of 78%, affordability Market Cap N1.33bn and cheapness – forward PE of 2. Any takeover will make the price shoot up like with the recent case of NEM insurance Bear Points1. The stock has limited liquidity with limited mass appeal 2. The management is distracted. The MD has political ambitions but has not yet resigned from the company. This might lead to a diversion of funds and possible political backlash against the company 3. There is a potential that the company might soon have a change in management if the MD’s political ambitions come to fruition 4. The free float means that the potential supply off stock is substantial relative to that held by management. 5. The stock has low volatility as it tends to stay at a specific price points for prolonged periods of time first 50k and now 20k. 6. The company has limited exposure to quoted equities which was N697m as at Sept 2018 |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 7:49pm On Oct 30, 2018 |
Dupeodus: Aiico management continues to manipulate it's financials to suppress it's share price because of this private placement they want to do. They want to buy more shares of the company on the cheap. The q3 financials has an unexplained N3.6 billion Fair Value loss. We know that losses like this come from the valuation of their government Bond holdings when interest rate increases. However, there has not been any significant movement in government Bond coupon rates between December 2017 and end of September to justify this loss. Besides, we did not see any correspondent downward movement on the life contract liability side if interest rates has gone up This is another one on top of their undervaluation of their government Bond holdings as of 31 Dec 2017. For the financial year ending 31 Dec 2016, AIICO correctly marked down the value of it's Government bond holdings by N12 billion because interest rates on government Bond jumped. The life contract liabilities were similarly marked down. By financial year ending 31 Dec 2017 however, interest rates on government bonds reverted back to around 13%. While the life contract liabilities were correctly marked up to reflect higher valuation because of lower discounting rates, the value of the government bonds assets were not marked up to reflect the lower prevailing rates. Instead, the N12 billion negative reserve created in 31 Dec 2016 because of the asset mark down was netted against the Retained Earnings post 31 Dec 2017. If one takes out all of these manipulations through the valuation of assets and liabilities because of changes in interest rates, then you begin to see the true potential of AIICO. Sometimes, I wish I could see the financials of Leadway, the leading life insurance company to compare with AIICO but Leadway is a private company. Leadway's financials can be downloaded from here https://www.leadway.com/about-leadway-assurance/annual-accounts/Regards |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 4:45pm On Sep 27, 2018 |
DeRuggedProf: No wonder, someone wanted us to help push the price to between N70K - N1.00. The real problem is that you may enter and get locked with this issue lingering for several moons, meanwhile, fundamentally sound stocks may have returned nearly 100% with dividend while you stay locked to get the 37.5% gain from 40k to 55k...  Even rats dig their homes with emergency exits in place. This is not the kind of trap that catches me. Even the management is forced to admit that they have fallen into a very big hole and are still asking to be provided with additional modern digging tools. The only real protection for the retail investors (a listed firm) is about to be removed. After that, their voices shall be heard no more...  Guilty conscience dey kill me so Bros a couple of questions for you?1)Who asked you to help push the share price of First Aluminium to 70k - N1? 2)Is asking that you check the financials before taking a decision an invitation to buy the shares or is it an invitation to make an informed decision? 3)Is giving my interpretation of their financials commendable or an act to be condemned? 4)Has my theory that the company is need of recapitalization due to their interest expense been validated or not? 5)Will the management attempt a takeover of the company if they thought the shares are overvalued or that the company was not viable? Now over to an analysis of the Takeover Bid. It is clear that the Mgt is trying to be clever by half and steal the company from minority share holders. They see that the shares are grossly undervalued and that they can win any vote in which they partake in so why not vote to compel the minority shareholders to sell their shares at a grossly undervalued price. The Net Asset value per share from their 2017 annual report is about N2.45. This is what each share gets if you sell off all the assets (at book value N9,884,593,000) and pay of all the liabilities (at market value N4,721,675,000) then share the remained of the proceed (N5,162,918,000) between the shareholders (2,110,359,242 shares). This should at least be one of the the benchmark prices used in setting the takeover price in a sane society. I am not sure that the claim by Nairametrics that the rules says that the price of a take over should be the maximum value of the shares in the last 6 months is totally correct.A fair value for the shares is determined using different approaches and offered to the shareholders. From experience the price is usually at some premium to the market price as specified by the acquiring company. Also there is a procedure for dissenting share holders to apply to court within a time frame for the fair value of the shares to be determined which is what they will be paid. This procedure is specified in section 146 and 147 of the Investments and Securities Act of 2007 as shown below [b] 147 (1)This section applies where a dissenting offeree makes an election under paragraph (b) of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act. (2) The offeror may, within twenty days after he had paid the money or transferred the other consideration under subsection (6) of this section apply to the court to fix the fairvalue of shares of the dissenting offeree. (3) If an offeror fails to apply to the court under subsection (2) of this section, a dissenting offeree may apply to the court for the same purpose within a further period of twenty days. (4) A dissenting offeree shall not be required to give securities for costs in an application made under subsection (2) or (3) of this section. (5) Where an application is made under subsection (2) or (3) of this section- (a) all dissenting offerees who made an election under paragraph (b) of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act shall be joined as parties and bound by the decision of the court; and (b) the offeror shall notify each affected dissenting offeree of the date and place of the application and of his right to appear and be heard in person or by counsel. (6) Upon an application to the court under subsection (2) or (3) of this section, the court shall fix a fair value for the shares of all dissenting offerees who made an election under paragraph (b) of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act. (7) The court may, in its discretion, appoint one or more than one independent valuer to assist the court in fixing a fair value for the shares of a dissenting offeree. ( The final order of the court shall be made against the offeror in favour of each dissenting offeree who made an election under paragraph (b) of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act and for the amount for his shares as fixed by the court. (9) The court may, in connection with proceedings under this section, make an order, if it thinks fit and, without limiting the generality of the foregoing may :-
(a) by order, fix the amount of money or other consideration that is required to be held in trust under subsection (6) of section 146 of this Act; (b) order that money or other consideration be held in trust by a person other than the offeree company; or (c) allow interest at the current bank rate on the amount payable to each dissenting offeree from the date he sends to the offeree company his share certificates under subsection (5) of section 146 of this Bill until the date of payment. (10) Where the amount of money or other consideration fixed by the court under paragraph (a) of subsection (9) of this section exceeds that held on trust pursuant to any payment or transfer already made under subsection (6) of section 146 of this Bill by the offeror, the offeror shall :- (a) make to the offeree company any payment or transfer necessary to comply with the order, and subsection (6) of section 146 of this Act shall apply in relation to the amount so paid or transferred; or (b) if the court made an order under paragraph (b) of subsection (9) of this section, make that payment or transfer to the other person by whom the money or consideration is to be held in trust. (11) Where the court makes an order under paragraph (b) of subsection (9) of this section- (a) the order of the court shall operate to divest the offeree company of the money or other consideration subject to the trust and to vest it in the person named in the order on the like trust; and (b) Subsection (6) of section 146 of this Act shall apply to money or other consideration paid or transferred pursuant to paragraph (b) of subsection (1) of this section to that person.
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 12:59pm On Sep 27, 2018 |
Mpeace: Wetin una dey see for this aiico sef. Uniondac is two times better. But airservices and fidelity are even better than both. My opinion sha. Hi Mpeace, I come in peace. What metrics are you basing your opinion on? People (including you) might find your comment more convincing if you use figures to demonstrate your conviction. For example what are the PE Ratios (Forward and Backward), Price to Book, PEG Ratio of the companies being compared (namely AIICO, Fidelity, Airservices)? Cheers Monkey Hunter. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 8:33pm On Sep 20, 2018*. Modified: 8:58pm On Sep 20, 2018 |
deepsuk: Happy bday to you.
Now on top d matter
To all those magas pushing first alum and Skye bank here today ...god will punish u.
Maybe u go con some young ppl here who don’t know your scam yet but v c u clear.
Bone ur useless metrics or the poo that you are serving here saying it’s calculatons while all the by doing is trying to sell a shithouse
Finally to whose who are considering buying based on these recommendations by self professed oracles and experts.....”at the end na shell holder u go b” that pop will smell from adekunle to banana Dear Deepsuk, While repeatedly calling on God to punish people, please note the following as written in the scriptures 1)Thou shall not call the name of thy Lord in vain. 2)The foundation of the lord stands sure bearing this seal God knows those that are his so let everyone that calls the name of the Lord depart from iniquity 3)You can't serve both God and Mammon. 4) Shall we continue in sin and pray that grace should abound, God forbid. You might want to retrace from the current path on which you are on or else it might be satan that will end up punishing you Now at no point did I request that anybody should buy the stock. I only requested that the financials should be consulted before making a decision. I however might have erred in calling out other peoples recommendations as having been made without consulting the financials. I have further consulted the financials and noted the following. The main issue with First Aluminium is surprisingly not the negative retained but the capital structure. First Aluminium largely uses expensive debt in its operations and had debt of about N2.5 to N3bn as at year end 2017 at an effective rate of 24%. It paid interest of about N750m and tax of N350m during the year to give a profit of N209m. It's EBIT (Earnings before Interest and Tax) was therefore N1.3bn. If it had additional equity of N3bn it would have declared profit of almost N1bn as it would have avoided the interest payment. It therefore needs a capital raise through a rights or public issue to help ensure it works for the shareholders instead of the banks. Mgt tend to be interested in the share price of their companies when they need to raise capital and if possible help to give the share price a boost to what they think is a fair valuation for the company It is also interesting to note that it obtained a 2.5b BOI this year as shown in the 2nd quarter 2018 results which should help reduce the interest expense as these loans are typically at single digits as opposed to the current cost of funds which is at 24%. The business is a stable franchise with N10b in turnover annually which is approximately 800m monthly or 40m in sales every working day at 20 working days in a month. I once again apologies to Wanajo and others for calling their recommendation out as I believe people should be free to give their recommendations on this forum wthout any fear of backlash. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 1:28pm On Sep 20, 2018 |
wanaj0: A 'good' company BUT
1) Not paid dividend in years 2) Profitability dropped in its 'core business' (Company result) 3) Negative retained earnings will take 8 years to turn positive at current 'run rate'. 4) POOR margins
Candidate for take over? YES.
I can only recommend such companies for an Undertaker like Jimoh Ibrahim. Jimoh Ibrahim love such companies because they are good for asset stripping. He will help hasten their death. My bad. Apologies for the accusation. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 12:59pm On Sep 20, 2018 |
wanaj0: How do you know that people did not look at the result?
What is there to see? Attached is the latest financial statement.
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/21594_FIRST_ALUMINIUM_NIGERIA_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2018.pdf
If you look at the 5 year Group result, did you see any consistent GROWTH in Revenue ?
The company has NEGATIVE retained earning of about N1.6bn. It will take about 8 years for the retained earnings to turn positive before you can think of earning any dividend based on current run rate.
What are the ratios? Profit margin? From revenue of N10bn you make a profit of N200m! Excellent
Profit for the company dropped from N177m to N42m between 2016 and 2017! Na improvement be that? Ok ooooo. Comments made on First Aluminium " Dead body must shake body and get lifted before e finally rest for ground level 20K" " Can't remember the last time that company declared profit or pay dividend. They are an Aluminium company that is completely left behind!" " She may just be waking up from sleep. That's the only thing that came to my mind when I saw her post. But still, people make money from dead companies, she might succeed." " Na only maggot dead body go brew. That company is returning back to DUST." The above comments are not justified and can't have been made by someone that looked at the financials. 1)The company is not dead. 2)It is not loss making. 3)It is not over priced. 4)20k (Market Cap of N420m) will be a gift to whoever buys it given the profitability (N210m) and shareholder's funds (over 5bn). Am I advising people to buy? No. Is the group result of more relevance to shareholders than company results? In my opinion, Yes Has group profitability iimproved ver the the past four years? Yes from N29m to N209m Are the profitability margins poor? Yes and that has been reflected in the price. The company is however making sales of over N9bn annually and if the margins improve the profitability shoots up. Is this an attractive take over candidate? Yes |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 12:22pm On Sep 20, 2018 |
DeRuggedProf: FULL BID. Yes I have a bid there. I also made a 10% gain twice this week trading the stock |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 12:18pm On Sep 20, 2018 |
Yayira: This man na real monkey hunter  Why is it always partially resurrected kobo kobo stocks you only preach about ? Even if the company got some good thing going now, wouldn’t it be wise to wait and see if the progress continues ?
As for Yayira, she don know how una pocket deep for this blog.. she no dey follow una do stocks wey una money fit control. I am not a monkey hunter o! I am THE monkey hunter. I however didn't preach First Aluminium o! I only asked that she should rely on her interpretation of company's financials in judging the prospects of the company instead of relying on opinion of gurus especially when the gurus have not looked at the financials but are anchored to a preconceived notion of the company and its prospects. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:59am On Sep 20, 2018 |
DeRuggedProf: Are you sure you are not involved in the FB? What's FB? |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:55am On Sep 20, 2018 |
mendes911: Don't worry. Go and attempt the assignment. You will surely not get any answer! I will help out with the assignment. Issued Shares 2.1bn Market Cap @ 30k N630m Shareholders funds N5.162bn 2017 PAT N209m Total Assets: N9.884bn Retained Earnings (1.5bn) negative Four year profit history 2017 : N209m 2016 : N175m 2015 : N169m 2014 : N29m EPS 2017 : 9.92k 2016 : 7.71k 2015 : 5.18k 2014 : 1.37k Book Value per share EPS 2017 : 244.6k 2016 : 234.3k 2015 : 227.5k 2014 : 219.8k In my opinion it is not the dead company as previously portrayed. Profits is steadily growing but the negative retained earnings will prevent it from paying dividends for a while. The PE is around 3 so valuation wise it is pretty cheap and if it had sufficient float might make a very good takeover candidate (N31m gets your 5% of the company). Today's trade was like 1.6% of the company. I might study the financials thoroughly over the weekend and provide further info on the company and its prospects. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:26am On Sep 20, 2018 |
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:25am On Sep 20, 2018 |
Mcy56: Chai! This is another angle of looking at it. Will do. Thank you.  Please let's know what you find. |