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Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:36am On Oct 02, 2021
arduino:

Them fit lead you enter bush then take a shortcut to their private road oh. Shine your eyes well.
grin grin grin

https://marcopolis.net/e-business-solutions-and-advisory-in-nigeria-an-interview-with-dr-adebola-akindele-of-courteville.htm
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:59am On Aug 11, 2021
The news provided the list of Banks with exposure to the refinery as requested

dharpzee:
Kindly note that this News is as at 2013!!



1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 4:48am On Aug 11, 2021
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/144169-dangote-seals-n528bn-loan-deal-12-banks-refinery-petrochemical-project.html

Dangote Group on Wednesday signed an agreement with a consortium of 12 Nigerian and international banks for a $3.3 billion (about N528 billion) loan to facilitate the construction of a $9 billion oil refinery, petrochemical, and fertiliser complex in Nigeria.

The deal is part of a $6.75billion debt financing arrangement to augment the equity contribution in the project by the group, which also has interests ranging from cement, to basic food processing, to oil and gas sectors of the economy.

The consortium of banks include Standard Chartered, Guaranty Trust Bank, Access Bank, Zenith Bank Plc, First Bank Nigeria Plc, Ecobank International, Fidelity Bank Plc, United Bank for Africa, Standard Bank, Diamond Bank First City Monument Bank and FirstRand Bank.

BabsO2:
https://mmsplusng.com/blog/amcon-may-take-over-dangote-refinery-as-liabilities-swell/

Hope this will not hit some bank profits with impairment charges. Which banks are exposed to Dangote Refinery debt ?

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 8:39pm On Jun 15, 2019
Valueinvestor:


Please what is the rationale behind the purchase of this stock. Probably there is something we don't know

Probably looking for the next Chams, Courteville or Japaul.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 1:36pm On Apr 02, 2019
awesomeJ:


Sounds like you're trying to convince people to agree with you so that you can be convinced yourself that you haven't made a mistake.

(No offence sir).


3k is superb on a 20k stock. The only issue is after collecting the dividend (13.5% yield net of WHT) It may be months, years or decades before you're able to sell and recoup your capital.

Cos I doubt if anyone would be willing to buy so much of it after markdown.

Meanwhile if this stock stays in the 20-22k range till qualification date, I'm wondering how it will be marked since 20k is the new floor.



Just looked at Chams result again and the net cash on their books is N120k (after deducting the bank overdraft of N111.402m from Cash and cash equivalent). Implication is that they might need a loan of N150m to pay the proposed dividend.

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 4:59pm On Dec 19, 2018
Yayira:


Please tell me in simple English my latest status as I’m not with my glasses right now..
Am I now a shareholder or still a shellholder ?
Has my ogas at the top approved the deal ?

Conference call is still in progress.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 4:06pm On Dec 19, 2018
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 6:00pm On Dec 18, 2018
No attempt to mislead anyone here. The cash portion of the transaction was accounted for in my analysis. Kindly check and confirm.

tiar:
Wrong! It is a share and cash acquisition. Don't mislead others.

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 3:33pm On Dec 18, 2018
onegentleguy:
Given the proposed merger between ACCESS and DIAMOND, it makes some sense to run an in-depth but cursory review and analysis to find out who amongst the shareholders of the 2 are up for a better deal from it all.
Put differently, where would be best for u to align with on the back of this merger?

"According to the report from both banks, the proposed merger would involve Access Bank acquiring the entire issued share capital of Diamond Bank in exchange for a combination of cash and shares in Access Bank via a Scheme of Merger.
Based on the agreement reached by the boards of the two financial institutions, Diamond Bank shareholders will receive a consideration of N3.13 per share, comprising of N1.00 per share in cash and the allotment of two(2) New Access Bank ordinary shares for every seven(7) Diamond Bank ordinary shares held as at the implementation date."

...a quick math:

On the DIAMOND side of the curve;

Today's closure price- N1.04. ...hence MoS gap from proposed merger price = 3.13-1.04 = N2.09.
Consideration price = N3.13
Cash allotment = N1
Hence allotment figure = Price consideration discounting for cash = 3.13-1 = N2.13.
Allotment ratio fulfilling implementation date- 7:2 (7 diamond for 2 access)
This means that post cash allotment, an investor's N14.91(7×2.13) worth in DIAMOND is EXPECTED to be equivalent to a N16.30(2×8.15) worth of ACCESS (assuming today's closing price of N8.15).
But DIAMOND's current price is N1.04. ...and so with reference to this allotment, an investor's N7.28(7×1.04) in DIAMOND should complement a N16.30(2×8.15) value in ACCESS.
...the interpretation of this is that an Investor/trader who managed to KEY in at the pre implementation date should at the very least be entitled to a stake of 2 units of ACCESS BANK for just N7.28. ...or per equity stake(1 unit) for only N3.64 !!
Which presents the plausibility of an already 114% ROI given ACCESS BANK'S closing price of N8.15 today.
Even if the price of DIAMOND should appreciate to the allotment figure price of N2.13, there would still be an over 9% MoS discount[(16.30-14.91)/14.91] from the current price of ACCESS. ...and we have not even factored in the N1 cash figure.
Add that up, and the chance of any possible return can only increase. (a likely 180-210% ROI).

On the ACCESS side of the curve;

We need to look at things in reverse view.
If a shareholder who keyed into DIAMOND pre implementation date can(given the above computation) get an equity stake of ACCESS BANK with just N3.64, it makes sense to assume in part(given access' current market price of N8.15) that value accretion is less here.
The best case scenerio would be to run an estimate in line with the fair value of ACCESS BANK, and do a repeat computation to see where there would likely be more 'gap' to tap from with regards to value.
At my FV estimate of N15.50 for ACCESS and using a Mix of valuation model to weigh in on the best price post merger (after dilution), ACCESS' best price would come in at slightly higher than today's closing price. (N9.40 to be precise)
Note that 'best price' in this instance refers to what I believe an equity stake of ACCESS should come to as an equivalent to DIAMOND and not necessarily the fair value of ACCESS.

Conclusion:
It makes sense to believe that the chances of reaping higher gains is more with DIAMOND than ACCESS.
...and so UNLESS THERE IS MORE TO THIS MERGER THAN WE ALREADY KNOW, the shareholders of DIAMOND has got themselves a better deal ahead of ACCESS.
So in the short term, I see a much better derivable value in DIAMOND than ACCESS. That said, there's also a high possibility of a great value with the latter in the long term, should this drive be effectively managed.

My advise:
If I were an Investor with positions in both coys, I would look to book my profit from DIAMOND within the N2-2.09 price band and no more than N9.40 in ACCESS. This should also serve to guide ur target entries if u wish to KEY in. (read between the lines from the estimates above)
...but that's just me.

NOTE: The sole aim of this run down is to look in on which among the 2 coys offers the possibility of a better baigain in terms of price appreciation.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is purely information driven. ...and NOT a reference to any sought of recommendation !!
Due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority.


I am not a financial expert but I am of the opinion that the share exchange will be treated using the fundamental principle that on the stock exchange you cannot manufacture or destroy value so if you pay dividend or bonus shares your shares must be marked down.

1) The cash payment to diamond bank share holders will be treated as a dividend payment so Access Bank shares will be market down for the dividend payment.

2) Shares issue to Diamond bank share holders will be treated as a bonus issue by Access Bank and the Acess Bank shares will also be marked down for the issue of these shares.

3)Diamond banks shares (Diamond banks market cap) that are cancelled will be treated as a reconstruction and Access Bank shares will be marked up for the cancellation of these shares.



Access Banks Market Cap post-Merger = (Market Cap of Access bank at cut-off date + Market Cap of Access bank at cut-off date) - Cash payment to diamnd bank share holders

Access Bank Market Cap Post Merger = Adjusted Access Bank Shares (i.e marked down or up) * shares in issue post merger

Shares in issue post merger = Issued Access bank shares pre-merger + (2 *Issued diamond bank /7)


In effect the sharing formula (shares to be given to each shareholders) is already know but the value to be shared (combined market Cap of each party) is not know.

The adjusted share price of Access Bank post merger will be a function of the final share price of Diamond and Access on the cutoff date.The increase in the share price of diamond bank works in Access Bank share holders favour as it implies that there will be less reduction in the value of the shares by virtue of a markdown.

For Example if Access stays at N7.85 and Diamond rises to N5

Access pre merger market Cap = 28,927,971,631 * 7.85 = N 227,084,577,303.35

Diamond pre merger market Cap = 23,160,388,968 * 5 =N 227,084,577,303.35

Combined Market Cap = N 227,084,577,303.35 +N 227,084,577,303.35 - N23,160,388,968.00 (cash payment) = 319,726,133,175.35

Shares issued to Diamond bank = 2 * 23,160,388,968.00 / 7 = 6,617,253,990.86

Post Merger Shares in Issue = 6,617,253,990.86 + 28,927,971,631 = 35,545,225,621.86

Adjusted Share price post merger = 319,726,133,175.35 / 35,545,225,621.86 = N8.99

In summary, till share prices of both parties are frozen things are still fluid as per but Access gets 81% of the combined party while diamond gets 19% plus N23b cash

Apologies for my long posts

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 2:53pm On Dec 11, 2018
ndidigood:
Pls everyone,help me look into regal insurance,l don't do insurance since m trapped in staco since 08,but m thinking of trying to try my luck.

A little write up I made on Regency Alliance. Not a buy recommendation.

Introduction
Regency Alliance Insurance Group consists of the following; Regency Alliance Nigeria an insurance company in Nigeria, 51% ownership interest in Regency NEM Insurance Ghana, RIC MFB a microfinance bank in Nigeria, RIC Property and Investment Limited - a property and investment company and RIC Technologies an IT firm that provides car trackers for clients. The company is run by Mr. Biyi Otegbeye that owns an 11% stake in the company.
The company has a 6 year history of profitability it has grown its shareholder’s funds from N3.88bn in 2013 to N5.5bn while it has posted a five year average PAT of N420m which ranged between N220m and N611m


Financial Metrics
Market Capitalization: N1.33bn
Share Holders Fund: N5.5bn
Retained earnings Sept 2018: N484m
Asset Base N8.6bn
Liabilities: N3.2bn
Last Financial Year’s Profit: N220m
Latest Quarter’s Profit: N508m (9months)
Expected Full Year Profits: N626m – N700m
Price to Book Ratio: 0.24
Price to Earnings Ratio Backward: 6.04
Price to Earnings Ratio Forward: 2
Latest Dividend 3k
Dividend Yield 15%
Expected Dividend 3k- 4k
Expected Dividend Yield 15% - 20%
Finance Cost: N/A
Free Float: 78.6%
Share Price Year High 50k
Share Price Year Low 20k
Share Price 5 Year High 50k
Share Price 5 Year Low 20k


Bull Points
1. We expect an improvement in Profit after Tax (PAT) N660m compared to last year N220m. Full year PAT 2018 is expected to be 300% that of 2017.
2. The expected dividend yield 15%- 20% is expected to be one of the highest in the industry for 2018.
3. The forward PE Ratio is pretty low given the a forecast of about 2 which suggest that the stock is very cheap
4. Technically the stock is at the floor price and under normal circumstances cannot fall below this level which protects against capital loss
5. The company is in a stable financial position with little risk of financial distress
6. The company was able to profitable operate during the previous recession in the economy
7. Company stands to profit from the increase of interest rates expected in the economy
8. The company has a history of paying dividends over a five year period
9. The company has been profitable over a 5 year period and has paid dividends over this period
10. The company is a viable takeover candidate given the free float of 78%, affordability Market Cap N1.33bn and cheapness – forward PE of 2. Any takeover will make the price shoot up like with the recent case of NEM insurance







Bear Points
1. The stock has limited liquidity with limited mass appeal
2. The management is distracted. The MD has political ambitions but has not yet resigned from the company. This might lead to a diversion of funds and possible political backlash against the company
3. There is a potential that the company might soon have a change in management if the MD’s political ambitions come to fruition
4. The free float means that the potential supply off stock is substantial relative to that held by management.
5. The stock has low volatility as it tends to stay at a specific price points for prolonged periods of time first 50k and now 20k.
6. The company has limited exposure to quoted equities which was N697m as at Sept 2018
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 7:49pm On Oct 30, 2018
Dupeodus:


Aiico management continues to manipulate it's financials to suppress it's share price because of this private placement they want to do. They want to buy more shares of the company on the cheap. The q3 financials has an unexplained N3.6 billion Fair Value loss. We know that losses like this come from the valuation of their government Bond holdings when interest rate increases. However, there has not been any significant movement in government Bond coupon rates between December 2017 and end of September to justify this loss. Besides, we did not see any correspondent downward movement on the life contract liability side if interest rates has gone up This is another one on top of their undervaluation of their government Bond holdings as of 31 Dec 2017. For the financial year ending 31 Dec 2016, AIICO correctly marked down the value of it's Government bond holdings by N12 billion because interest rates on government Bond jumped. The life contract liabilities were similarly marked down. By financial year ending 31 Dec 2017 however, interest rates on government bonds reverted back to around 13%. While the life contract liabilities were correctly marked up to reflect higher valuation because of lower discounting rates, the value of the government bonds assets were not marked up to reflect the lower prevailing rates. Instead, the N12 billion negative reserve created in 31 Dec 2016 because of the asset mark down was netted against the Retained Earnings post 31 Dec 2017. If one takes out all of these manipulations through the valuation of assets and liabilities because of changes in interest rates, then you begin to see the true potential of AIICO. Sometimes, I wish I could see the financials of Leadway, the leading life insurance company to compare with AIICO but Leadway is a private company.

Leadway's financials can be downloaded from here

https://www.leadway.com/about-leadway-assurance/annual-accounts/

Regards
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 4:45pm On Sep 27, 2018
DeRuggedProf:


No wonder, someone wanted us to help push the price to between N70K - N1.00.
The real problem is that you may enter and get locked with this issue lingering for several moons, meanwhile, fundamentally sound stocks may have returned nearly 100% with dividend while you stay locked to get the 37.5% gain from 40k to 55k... grin
Even rats dig their homes with emergency exits in place.
This is not the kind of trap that catches me.
Even the management is forced to admit that they have fallen into a very big hole and are still asking to be provided with additional modern digging tools.grin
The only real protection for the retail investors (a listed firm) is about to be removed. After that, their voices shall be heard no more... grin

Guilty conscience dey kill me so Bros a couple of questions for you?

1)Who asked you to help push the share price of First Aluminium to 70k - N1?
2)Is asking that you check the financials before taking a decision an invitation to buy the shares or is it an invitation to make an informed decision?
3)Is giving my interpretation of their financials commendable or an act to be condemned?
4)Has my theory that the company is need of recapitalization due to their interest expense been validated or not?
5)Will the management attempt a takeover of the company if they thought the shares are overvalued or that the company was not viable?

Now over to an analysis of the Takeover Bid.

It is clear that the Mgt is trying to be clever by half and steal the company from minority share holders. They see that the shares are grossly undervalued and that they can win any vote in which they partake in so why not vote to compel the minority shareholders to sell their shares at a grossly undervalued price. The Net Asset value per share from their 2017 annual report is about N2.45. This is what each share gets if you sell off all the assets (at book value N9,884,593,000) and pay of all the liabilities (at market value N4,721,675,000) then share the remained of the proceed (N5,162,918,000) between the shareholders (2,110,359,242 shares). This should at least be one of the the benchmark prices used in setting the takeover price in a sane society.

I am not sure that the claim by Nairametrics that the rules says that the price of a take over should be the maximum value of the shares in the last 6 months is totally correct.A fair value for the shares is determined using different approaches and offered to the shareholders. From experience the price is usually at some premium to the market price as specified by the acquiring company. Also there is a procedure for dissenting share holders to apply to court within a time frame for the fair value of the shares to be determined which is what they will be paid. This procedure is specified in section 146 and 147 of the Investments and Securities Act of 2007 as shown below

[b]147 (1)This section applies where a dissenting offeree makes an election under paragraph (b)
of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act.
(2) The offeror may, within twenty days after he had paid the money or transferred the other consideration under subsection (6) of this section apply to the court to fix the fairvalue of shares of the dissenting offeree.
(3) If an offeror fails to apply to the court under subsection (2) of this section, a dissenting offeree may apply to the court for the same purpose within a further period of twenty days.
(4) A dissenting offeree shall not be required to give securities for costs in an application made under subsection (2) or (3) of this section.
(5) Where an application is made under subsection (2) or (3) of this section-
(a) all dissenting offerees who made an election under paragraph (b) of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act shall be joined as parties and bound by the decision of the court; and
(b) the offeror shall notify each affected dissenting offeree of the date and place of the application and of his right to appear and be heard in person or by counsel.
(6) Upon an application to the court under subsection (2) or (3) of this section, the court shall fix a fair value for the shares of all dissenting offerees who made an election under paragraph (b) of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act.
(7) The court may, in its discretion, appoint one or more than one independent valuer to assist the court in fixing a fair value for the shares of a dissenting offeree.
(cool The final order of the court shall be made against the offeror in favour of each dissenting offeree who made an election under paragraph (b) of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act and for the amount for his shares as fixed by the court.
(9) The court may, in connection with proceedings under this section, make an order, if it thinks fit and, without limiting the generality of the foregoing may :-

(a) by order, fix the amount of money or other consideration that is required to be held in trust under subsection (6) of section 146 of this Act;
(b) order that money or other consideration be held in trust by a person other than the offeree company; or
(c) allow interest at the current bank rate on the amount payable to each dissenting offeree
from the date he sends to the offeree company his share certificates under subsection (5) of section 146 of this Bill until the date of payment. (10) Where the amount of money or other consideration fixed by the court under paragraph (a) of subsection (9) of this section exceeds that held on trust pursuant to any payment or transfer already made under subsection (6) of section 146 of this Bill by the offeror, the offeror shall :-
(a) make to the offeree company any payment or transfer necessary to comply with the order, and subsection (6) of section 146 of this Act shall apply in relation to the amount so paid or transferred; or
(b) if the court made an order under paragraph (b) of subsection (9) of this section, make that payment or transfer to the other person by whom the money or consideration is to be held in trust.
(11) Where the court makes an order under paragraph (b) of subsection (9) of this section-
(a) the order of the court shall operate to divest the offeree company of the money or other consideration subject to the trust and to vest it in the person named in the order on the like trust; and
(b) Subsection (6) of section 146 of this Act shall apply to money or other consideration paid or transferred pursuant to paragraph (b) of subsection (1) of this section to that person.





[/b]

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 12:59pm On Sep 27, 2018
Mpeace:
Wetin una dey see for this aiico sef. Uniondac is two times better. But airservices and fidelity are even better than both. My opinion sha.

Hi Mpeace,

I come in peace. What metrics are you basing your opinion on?

People (including you) might find your comment more convincing if you use figures to demonstrate your conviction. For example what are the PE Ratios (Forward and Backward), Price to Book, PEG Ratio of the companies being compared (namely AIICO, Fidelity, Airservices)?

Cheers
Monkey Hunter.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 8:33pm On Sep 20, 2018
deepsuk:
Happy bday to you.


Now on top d matter


To all those magas pushing first alum and Skye bank here today ...god will punish u.


Maybe u go con some young ppl here who don’t know your scam yet but v c u clear.


Bone ur useless metrics or the poo that you are serving here saying it’s calculatons while all the by doing is trying to sell a shithouse


Finally to whose who are considering buying based on these recommendations by self professed oracles and experts.....”at the end na shell holder u go b” that pop will smell from adekunle to banana

Dear Deepsuk,

While repeatedly calling on God to punish people, please note the following as written in the scriptures

1)Thou shall not call the name of thy Lord in vain.
2)The foundation of the lord stands sure bearing this seal God knows those that are his so let everyone that calls the name of the Lord depart from iniquity
3)You can't serve both God and Mammon.
4) Shall we continue in sin and pray that grace should abound, God forbid.

You might want to retrace from the current path on which you are on or else it might be satan that will end up punishing you


Now at no point did I request that anybody should buy the stock. I only requested that the financials should be consulted before making a decision. I however might have erred in calling out other peoples recommendations as having been made without consulting the financials.

I have further consulted the financials and noted the following.

The main issue with First Aluminium is surprisingly not the negative retained but the capital structure. First Aluminium largely uses expensive debt in its operations and had debt of about N2.5 to N3bn as at year end 2017 at an effective rate of 24%. It paid interest of about N750m and tax of N350m during the year to give a profit of N209m. It's EBIT (Earnings before Interest and Tax) was therefore N1.3bn. If it had additional equity of N3bn it would have declared profit of almost N1bn as it would have avoided the interest payment. It therefore needs a capital raise through a rights or public issue to help ensure it works for the shareholders instead of the banks. Mgt tend to be interested in the share price of their companies when they need to raise capital and if possible help to give the share price a boost to what they think is a fair valuation for the company

It is also interesting to note that it obtained a 2.5b BOI this year as shown in the 2nd quarter 2018 results which should help reduce the interest expense as these loans are typically at single digits as opposed to the current cost of funds which is at 24%.

The business is a stable franchise with N10b in turnover annually which is approximately 800m monthly or 40m in sales every working day at 20 working days in a month.

I once again apologies to Wanajo and others for calling their recommendation out as I believe people should be free to give their recommendations on this forum wthout any fear of backlash.

5 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 1:28pm On Sep 20, 2018
wanaj0:


A 'good' company BUT

1) Not paid dividend in years
2) Profitability dropped in its 'core business' (Company result)
3) Negative retained earnings will take 8 years to turn positive at current 'run rate'.
4) POOR margins

Candidate for take over? YES.

I can only recommend such companies for an Undertaker like Jimoh Ibrahim. Jimoh Ibrahim love such companies because they are good for asset stripping. He will help hasten their death.

My bad. Apologies for the accusation.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 12:59pm On Sep 20, 2018
wanaj0:


How do you know that people did not look at the result?

What is there to see? Attached is the latest financial statement.


http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/21594_FIRST_ALUMINIUM_NIGERIA_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2018.pdf

If you look at the 5 year Group result, did you see any consistent GROWTH in Revenue?

The company has NEGATIVE retained earning of about N1.6bn. It will take about 8 years for the retained earnings to turn positive before you can think of earning any dividend based on current run rate.

What are the ratios? Profit margin? From revenue of N10bn you make a profit of N200m! Excellent tongue

Profit for the company dropped from N177m to N42m between 2016 and 2017! Na improvement be that? Ok ooooo.

Comments made on First Aluminium

"Dead body must shake body and get lifted before e finally rest for ground level 20K"

"Can't remember the last time that company declared profit or pay dividend. They are an Aluminium company that is completely left behind!"

"She may just be waking up from sleep. That's the only thing that came to my mind when I saw her post. But still, people make money from dead companies, she might succeed."

"Na only maggot dead body go brew. That company is returning back to DUST."

The above comments are not justified and can't have been made by someone that looked at the financials.

1)The company is not dead.
2)It is not loss making.
3)It is not over priced.
4)20k (Market Cap of N420m) will be a gift to whoever buys it given the profitability (N210m) and shareholder's funds (over 5bn).

Am I advising people to buy? No.
Is the group result of more relevance to shareholders than company results? In my opinion, Yes
Has group profitability iimproved ver the the past four years? Yes from N29m to N209m
Are the profitability margins poor? Yes and that has been reflected in the price. The company is however making sales of over N9bn annually and if the margins improve the profitability shoots up.
Is this an attractive take over candidate? Yes

4 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 12:22pm On Sep 20, 2018
DeRuggedProf:


FULL BID.

Yes I have a bid there.

I also made a 10% gain twice this week trading the stock
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 12:18pm On Sep 20, 2018
Yayira:


This man na real monkey hunter grin grin
Why is it always partially resurrected kobo kobo stocks you only preach about ?
Even if the company got some good thing going now, wouldn’t it be wise to wait and see if the progress continues ?

As for Yayira, she don know how una pocket deep for this blog.. she no dey follow una do stocks wey una money fit control.

I am not a monkey hunter o!

I am THE monkey hunter.

I however didn't preach First Aluminium o! I only asked that she should rely on her interpretation of company's financials in judging the prospects of the company instead of relying on opinion of gurus especially when the gurus have not looked at the financials but are anchored to a preconceived notion of the company and its prospects.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:59am On Sep 20, 2018
DeRuggedProf:


Are you sure you are not involved in the FB?

What's FB?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:55am On Sep 20, 2018
mendes911:


Don't worry. Go and attempt the assignment. You will surely not get any answer!

I will help out with the assignment.

Issued Shares 2.1bn
Market Cap @ 30k N630m
Shareholders funds N5.162bn
2017 PAT N209m
Total Assets: N9.884bn
Retained Earnings (1.5bn) negative

Four year profit history
2017 : N209m
2016 : N175m
2015 : N169m
2014 : N29m

EPS
2017 : 9.92k
2016 : 7.71k
2015 : 5.18k
2014 : 1.37k


Book Value per share
EPS
2017 : 244.6k
2016 : 234.3k
2015 : 227.5k
2014 : 219.8k

In my opinion it is not the dead company as previously portrayed. Profits is steadily growing but the negative retained earnings will prevent it from paying dividends for a while. The PE is around 3 so valuation wise it is pretty cheap and if it had sufficient float might make a very good takeover candidate (N31m gets your 5% of the company). Today's trade was like 1.6% of the company. I might study the financials thoroughly over the weekend and provide further info on the company and its prospects.

3 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:26am On Sep 20, 2018
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:25am On Sep 20, 2018
Mcy56:


Chai! This is another angle of looking at it. Will do. Thank you. cool

Please let's know what you find.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:21am On Sep 20, 2018
Mcy56:

Big boss, this stone is big o. shocked I don commot my eyes.
LMAO. grin grin

Please try looking at their financials before commoting your eyes. This will help you make a better informed decision on what action to take. I can assure you most of the people that previously commented on First Aluminium have not looked at their recent financials.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 11:42am On Sep 14, 2018
mendes911:
Zenith....

Those offer at N20 are earnestly hoping that our deep pocket of yesterday will come for another cross deal for same price and carry them along.

LOL.

Their prayers have been answered.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 8:11pm On Sep 04, 2018
hyness:

Exactly in my last post when I said if things are allowed to run as its suppose to and no cutting of corners, all this hide & seek of trying to avoid paying tax as at when it is due will not occur.
Now becos all those accumulated unpaid taxes have now been lumped together to create this unbelievable sum Mtn will now cry foul thereby giving potential investors the perceptions that the country is a difficult place to do business when the fact is maybe it is these foreigners in conniver to cut corners surcharge us.
Lots of foreign investors have given us this kind of bad raps before on how corruption & abuse of power creates uncertainty and hinders growth of businesses in ninja #RichardBranson etc.
MTN won't leave though cos more than 25% of all of their returns comes from here. #Ninja is a cash cow business destination for those that knows how to navigate!

It is possible that the MTN issues might be political. It is rumoured that some peeps in the Senate collected bribes to give MTN a bill of clean health in the senate CCi probe and now the FG needs MTN to roll on the bribe collector(s) who might have political ambitions. If my guess is right, MTN is not in an enviable position and has a tough decision to make.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 8:22am On Sep 02, 2018
Dupeodus:
My post here is to launch a protest about what I consider a daylight robbery of retail investors of AIICO by AIICO's Management. AIICO announced that it will be doing a private placement of 4.4 billion shares to an undisclosed investor by private placement at N1.20 per shares and is planning an extra ordinary shareholders meeting to seek shareholders approval. Please do not be carried away by this proposed price of N1.20 compared to the market price. This is because I believe that AIICO's management has been manipulating its financial statement in the last 3 years to suppress the market price of AIICO's shares in anticipation of this private placement. First, the book value of the equity of AIICO as at 31-DEC-2017 works at about N1.58 per share. More importantly though is the fact that AIICO has about N12 billion hidden assets in the undervaluation of Federal Government bonds it holds as at that date. This N12 billion was shown as a negative reserve of the AFS assets in the equity section. Think about it. This is FGN bonds which is raw liquidity. Let me explain how I came about this.

In the 2016 financials, AIICO marked down the value of its treasury bills holding by about that N12 billion naira because they claimed interest rates increased and the face value of the FGN bonds has to be discounted. They disclosed the list of FGN holdings and over 90% of them by value were at about 12.15%. I can only guess that they used a prevailing 16% or thereabout interest rates for discounting because the list of many FGN bonds in the 2017 Financial statement was at 16% - 17%. This was fair enough as in that same year, the value of liabilities for life insurance and annuities were marked down for the same reason.

However, in the 2017 financial statement, the value of of liabilities for life insurance and annuities were now marked up by about N11 billion naira depressing the profit for the year. According to the Chairman's statement, this was because interest rates reduced by 12.9%. I believe this was a mistake in that he meant interest rates reduced to 12.9 percent which is used to measure the liabilities for life and annuity contracts. You will expect the same 12.9% to be used to measure the carrying values of the FGN bonds which should wipe off the N12 billion negative AFS reserves and show that the FGN bonds are being carried at cost. Alas, the N12 billion negative equities are still in the books. As I said earlier, as at 31-DEC-2017, about 80% by value of the FGN Bond holdings of AIICO were at 12.15% while the rest were at greater than 16%. At prevailing interest rates of 12.9% according to the Chairman's statements, these bonds should be carried at cost at least because the positive margin of about 3% on the 20% of bonds carried at 16% should be enough to offset the negative margin of 0.75% on the majority of the bonds. Therefore, instead of the value of N71.5 billion at which the Available for sale assets are carried in the books, it should have been at about N83.5 billion. Consequently, shareholders funds should have been at about N22.5 billion or about N3.25 per share instead of the N10.5 billion or N1.58 per share shown in the books.

The sole purpose of this private placement is for the management of AIICO to grab the company at the expense of retail shareholders. This is a very highly capitalized company with super liquidity. The company has about N83.5 billion FGN bonds at face value and N5 billion of Cash and Cash Equivalents to service N70 billions of Insurance and Investments contract liabilities. AIICO does not need the proceeds of this private placement.

I plan to write a letter of protest to both NAICOM and the SEC on this issue. If you can, please join this fight.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 12:25pm On Aug 31, 2018
wanaj0:


They plan doing special/private placement at N1.20. Hence they need to 'pump' up the price before then.

The money they raised during the last capital raising VANISHED!

Expect more of this (PUMP) from the Insurance Companies as they raise funds for the new capital requirements.

AIICO's fundamentals however supports an upward move

Market Cap @ 82k: 5.68bn
Last Years(2107)Total Comprehensive Income (TCI) N2.4bn
Most Recent TCI H1 2018 N1.75bn
Business / Re: ➜ ➜ ➜Currency/E-currency Market Deals➜ ➜ ➜ by MonkeyHunter: 10:29am On Aug 30, 2018
lexxyrule:
, 53$ Skrill also available

I am interested. How do we proceed?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 3:48pm On Aug 11, 2018
currentprice:
CP is working hard day/night scanning every stock to detect most undervalued one among other, when posted here instead of pple to do further search to detect why pple should buy or to jaa, they will be calling names.

i have seen one appears to be juicy again but i will like to see their Q3 report because this improvement in the H1 bottom line seem to have other incomes increases and expenses reduces thatz make it look goody. anyway,,, i post it or not doesn't matter now because no stock is immune to the current mkt mood. every stock will still fall, the more it fall the juicy it will be but anyone that want it now can just do little research, with the bolded will help to detect the stock.

Happy weekend!


grin grin grin

Just sent you a DM.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 8:10pm On Aug 07, 2018
Agbalowomeri:


Lol
I fit manage anticipated dividend yield of 15% and above by December/January if I no meet 'my target' grin

Further colour showing dividend yield at expected prices. It will be nice if the house could debate these expectations as to their feasibility.
This will help us properly prepare for the planting season.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MonkeyHunter: 7:48pm On Aug 07, 2018
Agbalowomeri:



Cp taking bull account Lol
Me na bear account I wan take when;

Diamond enter 50kobo
Zenith enter N13
Guaranty N18
Fidelity 70kobo
Fcmb 70kobo
Ucap N1.80k
Afriprud N2.50kobo
Honeywell 80kobo
Dangote Flour N4
Flourmills N12
Conoil N10
Uba N4
FBNH N4
Access N4
Aiico 20kobo
Nem N80kobo
Continsure N1
Constodyn N3
ASI 25k

#I dey my village, come beat me grin

Added colour to your projections. Are you staying out of the market till these prices are met?

1 Like

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