RabbiDoracle:
Guinness released their results today and they will be paying final dividend of N7.14.

If anyone bought at N15, this will be 500% at the current price of N90.

Add that to the dividend yield on cost of 47% for this stock. Imagine getting dividend yield of 47% (approximately 43% after deducting WHT) based on the declared dividend today.

So use this Guinness story as a solace when you see low prices and buy into it.

locodemy:


I can see you are a value investor in the sense you want the company to be debt-free.
Sometimes all these companies settle some of the debts through this medium( pushing share price upwards).

I will not be surprise to see this stock trading above #1 in this very year.
A year of long term bull.

locodemy:


Well analysed but this was how those stocks that delivered 200% started.For the past 5 yrs, this stock has not produced a result like this.I think it is an improved result despite the huge debts.Their creditors may have converted the debts to equity.Who knows?
We will get clearer picture from the coming Q1 result.For me, this stock is suppose to touch 50kobo and may trade above #1 before 2022 ends.I think more good results are coming in the subsequent quarters @ Rtbriscoe.It has done almost 40% in one week.We watch

Deadlytruth:

Improved earnings

arduino:

Them fit lead you enter bush then take a shortcut to their private road oh. Shine your eyes well.

dharpzee:
Kindly note that this News is as at 2013!!

BabsO2:
https://mmsplusng.com/blog/amcon-may-take-over-dangote-refinery-as-liabilities-swell/

Hope this will not hit some bank profits with impairment charges. Which banks are exposed to Dangote Refinery debt ?

Valueinvestor:


Please what is the rationale behind the purchase of this stock. Probably there is something we don't know

awesomeJ:


Sounds like you're trying to convince people to agree with you so that you can be convinced yourself that you haven't made a mistake.

(No offence sir).


3k is superb on a 20k stock. The only issue is after collecting the dividend (13.5% yield net of WHT) It may be months, years or decades before you're able to sell and recoup your capital.

Cos I doubt if anyone would be willing to buy so much of it after markdown.

Meanwhile if this stock stays in the 20-22k range till qualification date, I'm wondering how it will be marked since 20k is the new floor.

Yayira:


Please tell me in simple English my latest status as I’m not with my glasses right now..
Am I now a shareholder or still a shellholder ?
Has my ogas at the top approved the deal ?

tiar:
Wrong! It is a share and cash acquisition. Don't mislead others.

onegentleguy:
Given the proposed merger between ACCESS and DIAMOND, it makes some sense to run an in-depth but cursory review and analysis to find out who amongst the shareholders of the 2 are up for a better deal from it all.
Put differently, where would be best for u to align with on the back of this merger?

"According to the report from both banks, the proposed merger would involve Access Bank acquiring the entire issued share capital of Diamond Bank in exchange for a combination of cash and shares in Access Bank via a Scheme of Merger.
Based on the agreement reached by the boards of the two financial institutions, Diamond Bank shareholders will receive a consideration of N3.13 per share, comprising of N1.00 per share in cash and the allotment of two(2) New Access Bank ordinary shares for every seven(7) Diamond Bank ordinary shares held as at the implementation date."

...a quick math:

On the DIAMOND side of the curve;

Today's closure price- N1.04. ...hence MoS gap from proposed merger price = 3.13-1.04 = N2.09.
Consideration price = N3.13
Cash allotment = N1
Hence allotment figure = Price consideration discounting for cash = 3.13-1 = N2.13.
Allotment ratio fulfilling implementation date- 7:2 (7 diamond for 2 access)
This means that post cash allotment, an investor's N14.91(7×2.13) worth in DIAMOND is EXPECTED to be equivalent to a N16.30(2×8.15) worth of ACCESS (assuming today's closing price of N8.15).
But DIAMOND's current price is N1.04. ...and so with reference to this allotment, an investor's N7.28(7×1.04) in DIAMOND should complement a N16.30(2×8.15) value in ACCESS.
...the interpretation of this is that an Investor/trader who managed to KEY in at the pre implementation date should at the very least be entitled to a stake of 2 units of ACCESS BANK for just N7.28. ...or per equity stake(1 unit) for only N3.64 !!
Which presents the plausibility of an already 114% ROI given ACCESS BANK'S closing price of N8.15 today.
Even if the price of DIAMOND should appreciate to the allotment figure price of N2.13, there would still be an over 9% MoS discount[(16.30-14.91)/14.91] from the current price of ACCESS. ...and we have not even factored in the N1 cash figure.
Add that up, and the chance of any possible return can only increase. (a likely 180-210% ROI).

On the ACCESS side of the curve;

We need to look at things in reverse view.
If a shareholder who keyed into DIAMOND pre implementation date can(given the above computation) get an equity stake of ACCESS BANK with just N3.64, it makes sense to assume in part(given access' current market price of N8.15) that value accretion is less here.
The best case scenerio would be to run an estimate in line with the fair value of ACCESS BANK, and do a repeat computation to see where there would likely be more 'gap' to tap from with regards to value.
At my FV estimate of N15.50 for ACCESS and using a Mix of valuation model to weigh in on the best price post merger (after dilution), ACCESS' best price would come in at slightly higher than today's closing price. (N9.40 to be precise)
Note that 'best price' in this instance refers to what I believe an equity stake of ACCESS should come to as an equivalent to DIAMOND and not necessarily the fair value of ACCESS.

Conclusion:
It makes sense to believe that the chances of reaping higher gains is more with DIAMOND than ACCESS.
...and so UNLESS THERE IS MORE TO THIS MERGER THAN WE ALREADY KNOW, the shareholders of DIAMOND has got themselves a better deal ahead of ACCESS.
So in the short term, I see a much better derivable value in DIAMOND than ACCESS. That said, there's also a high possibility of a great value with the latter in the long term, should this drive be effectively managed.

My advise:
If I were an Investor with positions in both coys, I would look to book my profit from DIAMOND within the N2-2.09 price band and no more than N9.40 in ACCESS. This should also serve to guide ur target entries if u wish to KEY in. (read between the lines from the estimates above)
...but that's just me.

NOTE: The sole aim of this run down is to look in on which among the 2 coys offers the possibility of a better baigain in terms of price appreciation.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is purely information driven. ...and NOT a reference to any sought of recommendation !!
Due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority.

ndidigood:
Pls everyone,help me look into regal insurance,l don't do insurance since m trapped in staco since 08,but m thinking of trying to try my luck.

Dupeodus:


Aiico management continues to manipulate it's financials to suppress it's share price because of this private placement they want to do. They want to buy more shares of the company on the cheap. The q3 financials has an unexplained N3.6 billion Fair Value loss. We know that losses like this come from the valuation of their government Bond holdings when interest rate increases. However, there has not been any significant movement in government Bond coupon rates between December 2017 and end of September to justify this loss. Besides, we did not see any correspondent downward movement on the life contract liability side if interest rates has gone up This is another one on top of their undervaluation of their government Bond holdings as of 31 Dec 2017. For the financial year ending 31 Dec 2016, AIICO correctly marked down the value of it's Government bond holdings by N12 billion because interest rates on government Bond jumped. The life contract liabilities were similarly marked down. By financial year ending 31 Dec 2017 however, interest rates on government bonds reverted back to around 13%. While the life contract liabilities were correctly marked up to reflect higher valuation because of lower discounting rates, the value of the government bonds assets were not marked up to reflect the lower prevailing rates. Instead, the N12 billion negative reserve created in 31 Dec 2016 because of the asset mark down was netted against the Retained Earnings post 31 Dec 2017. If one takes out all of these manipulations through the valuation of assets and liabilities because of changes in interest rates, then you begin to see the true potential of AIICO. Sometimes, I wish I could see the financials of Leadway, the leading life insurance company to compare with AIICO but Leadway is a private company.

DeRuggedProf:


No wonder, someone wanted us to help push the price to between N70K - N1.00.
The real problem is that you may enter and get locked with this issue lingering for several moons, meanwhile, fundamentally sound stocks may have returned nearly 100% with dividend while you stay locked to get the 37.5% gain from 40k to 55k...
Even rats dig their homes with emergency exits in place.
This is not the kind of trap that catches me.
Even the management is forced to admit that they have fallen into a very big hole and are still asking to be provided with additional modern digging tools.
The only real protection for the retail investors (a listed firm) is about to be removed. After that, their voices shall be heard no more...

147 (1)This section applies where a dissenting offeree makes an election under paragraph (b)
of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act.
(2) The offeror may, within twenty days after he had paid the money or transferred the other consideration under subsection (6) of this section apply to the court to fix the fairvalue of shares of the dissenting offeree.
(3) If an offeror fails to apply to the court under subsection (2) of this section, a dissenting offeree may apply to the court for the same purpose within a further period of twenty days.
(4) A dissenting offeree shall not be required to give securities for costs in an application made under subsection (2) or (3) of this section.
(5) Where an application is made under subsection (2) or (3) of this section-
(a) all dissenting offerees who made an election under paragraph (b) of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act shall be joined as parties and bound by the decision of the court; and
(b) the offeror shall notify each affected dissenting offeree of the date and place of the application and of his right to appear and be heard in person or by counsel.
(6) Upon an application to the court under subsection (2) or (3) of this section, the court shall fix a fair value for the shares of all dissenting offerees who made an election under paragraph (b) of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act.
(7) The court may, in its discretion, appoint one or more than one independent valuer to assist the court in fixing a fair value for the shares of a dissenting offeree.
( The final order of the court shall be made against the offeror in favour of each dissenting offeree who made an election under paragraph (b) of subsection (3) of section 146 of this Act and for the amount for his shares as fixed by the court.
(9) The court may, in connection with proceedings under this section, make an order, if it thinks fit and, without limiting the generality of the foregoing may :-

(a) by order, fix the amount of money or other consideration that is required to be held in trust under subsection (6) of section 146 of this Act;
(b) order that money or other consideration be held in trust by a person other than the offeree company; or
(c) allow interest at the current bank rate on the amount payable to each dissenting offeree
from the date he sends to the offeree company his share certificates under subsection (5) of section 146 of this Bill until the date of payment. (10) Where the amount of money or other consideration fixed by the court under paragraph (a) of subsection (9) of this section exceeds that held on trust pursuant to any payment or transfer already made under subsection (6) of section 146 of this Bill by the offeror, the offeror shall :-
(a) make to the offeree company any payment or transfer necessary to comply with the order, and subsection (6) of section 146 of this Act shall apply in relation to the amount so paid or transferred; or
(b) if the court made an order under paragraph (b) of subsection (9) of this section, make that payment or transfer to the other person by whom the money or consideration is to be held in trust.
(11) Where the court makes an order under paragraph (b) of subsection (9) of this section-
(a) the order of the court shall operate to divest the offeree company of the money or other consideration subject to the trust and to vest it in the person named in the order on the like trust; and
(b) Subsection (6) of section 146 of this Act shall apply to money or other consideration paid or transferred pursuant to paragraph (b) of subsection (1) of this section to that person.

Mpeace:
Wetin una dey see for this aiico sef. Uniondac is two times better. But airservices and fidelity are even better than both. My opinion sha.

deepsuk:
Happy bday to you.


Now on top d matter


To all those magas pushing first alum and Skye bank here today ...god will punish u.


Maybe u go con some young ppl here who don’t know your scam yet but v c u clear.


Bone ur useless metrics or the poo that you are serving here saying it’s calculatons while all the by doing is trying to sell a shithouse


Finally to whose who are considering buying based on these recommendations by self professed oracles and experts.....”at the end na shell holder u go b” that pop will smell from adekunle to banana

wanaj0:


A 'good' company BUT

1) Not paid dividend in years
2) Profitability dropped in its 'core business' (Company result)
3) Negative retained earnings will take 8 years to turn positive at current 'run rate'.
4) POOR margins

Candidate for take over? YES.

I can only recommend such companies for an Undertaker like Jimoh Ibrahim. Jimoh Ibrahim love such companies because they are good for asset stripping. He will help hasten their death.

wanaj0:


How do you know that people did not look at the result?

What is there to see? Attached is the latest financial statement.


http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/21594_FIRST_ALUMINIUM_NIGERIA_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2018.pdf

If you look at the 5 year Group result, did you see any consistent GROWTH in Revenue?

The company has NEGATIVE retained earning of about N1.6bn. It will take about 8 years for the retained earnings to turn positive before you can think of earning any dividend based on current run rate.

What are the ratios? Profit margin? From revenue of N10bn you make a profit of N200m! Excellent

Profit for the company dropped from N177m to N42m between 2016 and 2017! Na improvement be that? Ok ooooo.

DeRuggedProf:


FULL BID.

Yayira:


This man na real monkey hunter
Why is it always partially resurrected kobo kobo stocks you only preach about ?
Even if the company got some good thing going now, wouldn’t it be wise to wait and see if the progress continues ?

As for Yayira, she don know how una pocket deep for this blog.. she no dey follow una do stocks wey una money fit control.

DeRuggedProf:


Are you sure you are not involved in the FB?

mendes911:


Don't worry. Go and attempt the assignment. You will surely not get any answer!

Mcy56:


Chai! This is another angle of looking at it. Will do. Thank you.

Mcy56:

Big boss, this stone is big o. I don commot my eyes.
LMAO.

mendes911:
Zenith....

Those offer at N20 are earnestly hoping that our deep pocket of yesterday will come for another cross deal for same price and carry them along.

LOL.

hyness:

Exactly in my last post when I said if things are allowed to run as its suppose to and no cutting of corners, all this hide & seek of trying to avoid paying tax as at when it is due will not occur.
Now becos all those accumulated unpaid taxes have now been lumped together to create this unbelievable sum Mtn will now cry foul thereby giving potential investors the perceptions that the country is a difficult place to do business when the fact is maybe it is these foreigners in conniver to cut corners surcharge us.
Lots of foreign investors have given us this kind of bad raps before on how corruption & abuse of power creates uncertainty and hinders growth of businesses in ninja #RichardBranson etc.
MTN won't leave though cos more than 25% of all of their returns comes from here. #Ninja is a cash cow business destination for those that knows how to navigate!

Dupeodus:
My post here is to launch a protest about what I consider a daylight robbery of retail investors of AIICO by AIICO's Management. AIICO announced that it will be doing a private placement of 4.4 billion shares to an undisclosed investor by private placement at N1.20 per shares and is planning an extra ordinary shareholders meeting to seek shareholders approval. Please do not be carried away by this proposed price of N1.20 compared to the market price. This is because I believe that AIICO's management has been manipulating its financial statement in the last 3 years to suppress the market price of AIICO's shares in anticipation of this private placement. First, the book value of the equity of AIICO as at 31-DEC-2017 works at about N1.58 per share. More importantly though is the fact that AIICO has about N12 billion hidden assets in the undervaluation of Federal Government bonds it holds as at that date. This N12 billion was shown as a negative reserve of the AFS assets in the equity section. Think about it. This is FGN bonds which is raw liquidity. Let me explain how I came about this.

In the 2016 financials, AIICO marked down the value of its treasury bills holding by about that N12 billion naira because they claimed interest rates increased and the face value of the FGN bonds has to be discounted. They disclosed the list of FGN holdings and over 90% of them by value were at about 12.15%. I can only guess that they used a prevailing 16% or thereabout interest rates for discounting because the list of many FGN bonds in the 2017 Financial statement was at 16% - 17%. This was fair enough as in that same year, the value of liabilities for life insurance and annuities were marked down for the same reason.

However, in the 2017 financial statement, the value of of liabilities for life insurance and annuities were now marked up by about N11 billion naira depressing the profit for the year. According to the Chairman's statement, this was because interest rates reduced by 12.9%. I believe this was a mistake in that he meant interest rates reduced to 12.9 percent which is used to measure the liabilities for life and annuity contracts. You will expect the same 12.9% to be used to measure the carrying values of the FGN bonds which should wipe off the N12 billion negative AFS reserves and show that the FGN bonds are being carried at cost. Alas, the N12 billion negative equities are still in the books. As I said earlier, as at 31-DEC-2017, about 80% by value of the FGN Bond holdings of AIICO were at 12.15% while the rest were at greater than 16%. At prevailing interest rates of 12.9% according to the Chairman's statements, these bonds should be carried at cost at least because the positive margin of about 3% on the 20% of bonds carried at 16% should be enough to offset the negative margin of 0.75% on the majority of the bonds. Therefore, instead of the value of N71.5 billion at which the Available for sale assets are carried in the books, it should have been at about N83.5 billion. Consequently, shareholders funds should have been at about N22.5 billion or about N3.25 per share instead of the N10.5 billion or N1.58 per share shown in the books.

The sole purpose of this private placement is for the management of AIICO to grab the company at the expense of retail shareholders. This is a very highly capitalized company with super liquidity. The company has about N83.5 billion FGN bonds at face value and N5 billion of Cash and Cash Equivalents to service N70 billions of Insurance and Investments contract liabilities. AIICO does not need the proceeds of this private placement.

I plan to write a letter of protest to both NAICOM and the SEC on this issue. If you can, please join this fight.