₦airaland Forum

I just like this Osun Returning officer, so fast and smart.

Situation Report from Angwa Primary school polling unit Idah Kogi State: The voting began by 8:26am and there is a massive turnout of voters.
The Attah of Igala also casted his votes here and also advised voters to vote their choice and consider the future of the unborn generation.

Please for the benefit of those of us that have plans to apply for the next local undergraduate scheme. What are the criteria that one must meet?
Thank you.

Seriously, this pdp has ulterior motive for this election. Buhari has not erred a bit in his statement, is bringing defaulters of the laws of the land to book the call for jungle justice? Total gibberish!

A SCIENTIFIC TRIANGULAR PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE 2019 NIGERIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

By

Prof. Umar Adamu Danbatta,
Geology Department,
A.B.U. Zaria.

E-mail: uabatta@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT
It has become a popular pastime for political pundits and scholars alike to predict the winner of presidential elections, especially in the U.S.A. and other European countries. Forecasting by economists and political scientists for predicting the results of this quadrennial ritual, has now taken a global insight in predicting who will become the next president in a country. With the February 2019 Nigeria presidential election looming, we use historical perspectives that incorporate our estimators into a dynamic triangular model to determine the probability of which candidate will win the nest presidential election in Nigeria. We took two political variables of the state of origin of the Presidents and their Vice-Presidents as the main indicators, plugs them into a triangular formula that has correctly predicted the outcome in almost all the 5 last presidential elections that were held in the country in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2015. The triangular formula aims to quantify the old geologic-political principle that “the past is the key to the present”. The method falls under the realm of scientific correlations of past data in order to predict what will likely happen next. The present model suggests that the outlook for the People Democratic Party (PDP) is negative in this year’s presidential election.

INTRODUCTION
In case you haven't heard, there's an election in the country tomorrow. Although Nigerians have followed with mixed feelings as the drumbeats of the 2019 political season intensifies, the election offers us a rare moment to-sit back and reflect on the pattern of geo-political development of the country. Over the last three decades, economists and political scientists have developed a variety of regression models to forecast presidential elections.

The object of science, philosophy and history include the study of the records of our past events in order to understand their relevance today. As such we need to understand the intricate triangular geo-political arrangement of power rotation from state to state for the benefit of those who are not familiar. Events in life are the determinants and ingredients of historical facts which are sacrosanct and objective. God knows the future but only historians can alter the past and this article is about the use of triangles generated from past recorded power rotation in the country to predict the next president of Nigeria.

There exist only a limited number of states that had produced the 14 Heads of States/Presidents that had ruled the country. These are namely Kano State, Ogun State, Katsina State, Sokoto State, Niger State and now Bayelsa State. These States of origin of former rulers in the country had in the past played a role in who becomes a President in the country and this is probably not going to change, whatever is the public perception.

It is therefore very imperative that we need to intellectually investigate and understand the actions and tools that control the movement and retention of power in these few states, and placed them in their right perspective. The main aim of this presentation is to highlight a triangular scientific method that I had used to predict past Nigeria presidential elections, as well as use the same insight to predict who will become the next president in Nigeria.

The critical observer would perceive and recognize the fact that the States of origin of the Presidents and their Vice-Presidents are the main historical indicators that determine the context of power rotation in the country since independence. When you plug these States into a triangular pattern, the formed a framework that control, highlights and determines the rules of political engagement in the manner of governing this country.

Nigeria has a multi-party system, with two or three strong parties and a third party that is electorally successful. One of the elements of the Nigerian presidential election is that the president is elected by the residents in each state who vote for the candidate they support. The voting at the state level need to be taken into account and this presentation is trying to model an observed variable: the triangular behavior of States that produced previous presidents in the country.

This triangular variable is then used to predict the next president which is a national issue that requires us to correctly forecast which of the major two parties is expected to win the 2019 presidential election. To make simply this discussion, it is safe to ignore lesser contenders, so in this model only Buhari and Atiku are in the race, despite the fact that there are many contestants. The battle is a straight one and whoever satisfied the all the election criteria and gets more votes wins.

THE TRIANGLE THEORY
Many analysts have asked whether any future prediction on the politics of our great country will stand. Indeed, the present use of triangle for prediction as theorized here had solid science behind it, as explained below. Triangulation is the division of a surface or plane polygon into a set of triangles usually with the restriction that each triangle side is entirely shared by two adjacent triangles.

A surface with a finite number of triangles in its triangulation is called compact. If you put three points anywhere in space (not in a straight line) you have exactly one plane that goes through all the three points. This is unique to three points, as adding more points will not give you a plane and reducing the points will give you multiple planes. This is very useful as it means that a three-legged stool will be stable no matter how uneven the ground is (provided the ground is not so uneven that the stool actually falls over).

In other words, the present scientific study reveals that triangles are the basis of stability of many past regimes in the country, and the triangular permutation we are going to use to predict the next president has a scientific basis. It is a legitimate area of research and intellectual speculation in which a country facing a political crisis should be interested in.

The maths behind this is calculated using Triangular Theorem plus a healthy dose of maps analysis, but using the same underlying triangular idea. The present triangular formula aims to shut out the political noise of who will win and predict the outcome of every presidential election based on scientific factors.

EVOLUTION OF THE MODEL

Preamble
For the last 50 years, the country had been ruled by 14 Heads of Government as shown in Table 1 below. The political leadership of the First Republic was dominated by the regime of Tafawa Balewa from Bauchi State (1st Oct., 1960- 15th Jan., 1966) and was toppled and replaced by that of Aguiyi-Ironsi from Abia State (15th Jan., 1966-29th July, 1966). General Yakubu Gowon from Plateau State came to the scene and ruled the country from 29th July, 1966-29th July, 1975.

The post civil-war political leadership of the country is the main focus of this theoretical analysis. It was dominated by the regime of General Murtala Ramat Mohammed of Kano State (29th July, 1975-13th Feb., 1976) who snatched power from General Yakubu Gowon in anticlockwise movement. This was followed by the regime of General Olusegun Obasanjo (Abeokuta, Ogun State; Feb. 13th, 1976-Sept. 30, 1979) who came after Murtala and handed power to President Shehu Shagari from Sokoto State who ruled the country from 1st Oct., 1979-31st Dec., 1983.

General Muhammad Buhari (Daura, Katsina State) threw the government of President Shagari (31st Dec., 1983-25th Aug., 1985), while General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB of Minna, Niger State) threw the government of General Buhari in 1985 (27th August, 1985-25th Aug., 1993).

IBB stepped aside for Chief Ernest Shonekan from Ogun State (26th Aug., 1993-14th Nov., 1993). Gen. Sani Abacha (Kano State) snatched power from Chief Shonekan and his presidency (15th Nov., 1993-8th June, 1998) is a culmination of a clockwise rotation by which power was taken from late Abacha by Abubakar Abdulsalam of Niger State (9th June, 1998-29th May, 1999), and unconsciously programmed to go back to Abeokuta (Obasanjo’s city) at a later time.

Olusegun Obasanjo (Abeokuta, Ogun State) collected leadership from Abdulsalam and ruled the country from 29th May, 1999-29th May, 2007; while Umaru Yar’Adua ruled from 29th May, 2007-30th Nov., 20009. Yar’Adua and the drama about his health towards the end of his life and his presidency is a culmination of a clockwise rotation by which power was transferred to Goodluck Jonathan (1st Dec., 2009-29th May, 2015), and unconsciously programmed to go back to Daura in Katsina State 29th May 2015- 29th May 2019?

An analysis of Table 1 suggests that in the last 39 years of post-civil war regimes, no matter your devotion or patriotism you never get elected to Nigeria’s highest office, if you are not from one the nine listed states that comprises of: i) Abia; ii) Anambra; iii). Bayelsa; iv) Kano; v) Katsina; vi) Ogun; vii) Niger; viii) Plateau; ix) Sokoto; ix). It was like an unwritten rule.

Pls don't mislead ppl @OP. He is not a road safety official but a Karota agent in Kano. Although i don't know what transpired there, many of this guys are fond of extorting money from motorists.

This man is indeed a great man, may God give you the strength to continue to strive for the betterment of Kogi state students.

Joeeasy:
Hey bro!
How were you able to get through the tax identity information stage?

Uncheck all the boxes you will see the option there.

Hello, I was offered a cheque been among the winners of an essay competition last week Monday, i was'nt able to cash out my fund that day because it was past bank working hours. I went to my bank on Tuesday morning and i was asked to present some legal means of identification so that they could upgrade my account since my account does'nt accept cheque which i did. I was expecting to get credited in no long time only for me to wait till Thursday without seeing any credit alert, i went back to the bank and the woman told me my account is still undergoing the upgrading process that i should exercise patience. Coming to Friday i saw a credit alert with the sum on the cheque but my balance still reads 0.00 naira. I checked my balance only to notice that nothing had been added. PLS CAN SOMEBODY HERE EXPLAIN TO ME WHAT IS GOING ON AND HOW CAN I GO ABOUT COLLECTING MY MONEY SOONEST.

SAI BABA WE KNOW SAI BUHARI!

Continue in your strive to make Nigeria a better place.

What sort of short notice is this na, how do they want ppl who don't reside close to dia centers to meet up.

please what other potent medications can you refer to me to treat my pimples i have used skineal, fun-bact A and loratidine tablet but the situations has not improved. please i need your suggestion(s) ,thank you.

The exams schedule for the fsb scholarship is out!

But the problem is that most of the students are in dia respective states and it will be very difficult to meet with the schedule considering that the notification for the exams is just coming today.
IS IT POSSIBLE FOR ONE TO CHANGE HIS/HER EXAM VENUE NOW?

This doesnt make sense na, shebi we are on strike.
imagine me living in Kogi to be going to kaduna for this exam. this is practically impossible.

Muhammed Kasim
Nezylime@gmail.com

Happy new year fam!

I want to key in!

let me key in ASAP.

I am interested. pls add me to the group when its ready.

wahza:
UPDATE!!!
Go to the scholarship board of the state you wrote the FSB exam with your registration number or phone number to check if you are shortlisted for the award

PLEASE, do you have the pictures of the list on your phone or can we get it through your friends that got? I am also an ABU student but reside i Kogi state. I can drop my number here so that you forward it to me through whatsapp. Please help a brother. AWAITING YOUR RESPONSE ASAP!!!!

Pls add me
Contact: 0 nine 0 sixty five nine 9 10 six 4

emilfischer:
I think its a neuromuscular disorder.

I also thought as much bro

xavieree:
It might be an early onset of motor neuron diseases....I saw symptoms like that in a movie "theory of everything" a movie about stephen hawking...you can browse up..Sorry dear

Thanks for your concern.

Healthwise17:
Hello, your brother's condition needs immediate attention. Well, as trained nutritionists, firstly we run medical check up on our patients using an Advanced Machine, which is capable of scanning all the vital organs to reveal any affected parts/imbalances and other parts of the body that need urgent care. We then do the product recommendation by recommending our food supplements to cure the disease and ailment completely, and a lot of people are sharing their testimonies every time they use our products.

For consultation, you can reach us on this number: 08164269252

OK.

Maximus69:
When posting for help on health tips,try to always include the age, hight and size of patients because this can help health consultants a lot.
Is he slim, fat, tall or short then what age?

OK. He his 14 years old, slim and of average height. I suspect it could be a neurological disorder.

[left][/left]
The first time this happened was about two weeks ago. He was copying their exams time table when his fingers began to curl inwards it also became difficult for him to work and had to be lifted home. Since then he has been using some local herbs. Today his fingers have started folding up again.

What medical condition is this and how can it be remedied?