₦airaland Forum

An interesting way to estimate true exchange rate. Take for example samsung galaxy s10 plus, this phone should have the same functionality anywhere and so same value irrespective of location right?

It costs about $600 on Amazon and #315,000 on Jumia. If I divide 315,000 by 600 I get about 525. If I am to neglect transportation cost differences I can say that $1 is worth about #525.

Anyway, The Economist did same with McDonald's burgers which they called Big Mac Index.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Mac_Index

T

The end is the beginning. The final season of #Dark arrives June 27.

https://nairametrics.com/2020/06/23/breaking-nigeria-close-to-securing-3-billion-world-bank-facility/

Nigeria close to securing $3 billion World Bank facility.

My question is if Nigeria has $33 billion in their reserves why this loan? Is it that the loan is dirty cheap because of the Corona circumstances? Plus what d loan will be used for is not very clear.

Good entry for GTB is 21 ?

firmi:
https://nairametrics.com/2020/06/24/9-mobile-confirms-orange-did-not-purchase-any-stake-in-9-mobile/

That is really bad from the columnist, misleading the public like that. What they actually own is EQUANT NIGERIA LIMITED.
https://www.orange.com/en/content/download/22742/471975/versio

einsteine:
Orange is not coming.

They are supposed to increase their stake in 9mobile but sources say the transaction may not happen.

What is your source? Here is mine;

https://nairametrics.com/2020/06/21/frances-orange-move-into-nigeria-spells-trouble-for-resident-telcos/

I know about 9mobile, they own 65% .

ahiboilandgas:
foreign portfolio investors (fpi ) they invest in short time securities like euro bond ,treasury bills and equity .....they dont come to build factory and infrastructures

Ok, we dont need such investors o.

ahiboilandgas:
FPi nof FDI

Foreign direct investment like mtn, lafarge etc

ahiboilandgas:
If u have foreign expenses like morgagte payments ,school fees or u live abroad....naira bonds are not very advisable to hold long term ....u must alway exit the markets convert your holdings to dollars and strike back......oyinbos (fpi )are looking for 2bn-5bn dollars to run away from Nigeria fixed income space .....they are trapped since march ....they have more research data and know was up....they have been reinvesting the naira at omo ..8.5 praying for liquidaty to run ....other have take a lost and buy at 420 from unofficial source and ran away ....

Let them run, some new FDI are coming in, I heard the France's largest telecom company, Orange, is planning to come in. Soldier go soldier come.

ahiboilandgas:
if i convert my 100k euros at 40
m and bought suku bond at 11.3 my annual profit be around 4.5m ...total 44.5m after 365 days ...but in 2 weeks they are unifying rate with i .e window at 470 ....so my 44.5m/470 =94600 euro ...so i have lost 5400 euro .....cos i wasnt a rational investor but an emotional one ....5400 eurox 470= 2.6 m ...my monthly lost of over 200k permonths ....that just year 1 .....Naira has never recovered since introduced in the 60 s na to gain 2 naira and lost 100

What is the exchange rate for Euro

onegentleguy:
No doubt... I know this.
But hear this; Even FA can also drive sentiments, so SA can also be reckoned as a subset of it.(top-down/bottom-up approach in view)
Read through the post u quoted again(and the post it quoted), and u'll understand why I had to isolate in context, that subset.
Those who know and can understand shouldn't have an issue making sense of it.

Selah

Alright sir.

onegentleguy:
It takes someone who understand to know that aside FA and TA there's something called also SENTIMENTAL ANALYSIS. ...which is oftentimes the biggest driving force to ASSET PRICING and eventual quest for AR(actual return) raking-off risk.
It also takes a bit more to know how to relate it to its peculiar top-down and/or bottom -up approach.

When u do, u'll understand why many healthcare coys have recorded massive gains in the US, EU and most EMs.

But like I said before; U have the exclusive right to suit urself. ...just believe in what u so chose and live on with it.
U hold that right, and NO one can question u on it !!

Good luck my dear !!

"Sentiment Analysis" is a subset of TA. Their are tools that measure market sentiments like the various momentum oscillators.

RabbiDoracle:
You don't do JIJO in a bull market. You ride a bull market. We are in a bull market.

You do JIJO is a bear market.

The wide bar had 1.7 billion units traded that month, i think that for price to breakout from the 3 years trap, either direction, it may need large volume. As it is now, that volume is lacking, I think the people pushing the market recently are mostly short time players, probably JIJOists .

My thoughts though, but Oga this FCMB is not showing bullish signs o, no substantial volumes to set it free. Neither buyers nor sellers are showing confidence.

locodemy:
Osita,from today you are my friend.

From 1.72 the stock is about to make the third 10%. Eku market o, lol.

FCMB seems to be a good JIJO stock. Since January 2018 it has been traveling sideways between 1.46 to 3.65 (never gettingany close to 3.65 though). That wide bar has trapped prices for a very long time and will continue to do so.

Implications are that whenever it retraces to 1.5 buy without fear, since 2018 it has been making that touchdown atleast once ever year.

The chart is a little cluttered as it was taken on my mobile. It is a monthly time frame by d way.

I also noticed that covid-19 has had no effect on the stock.

DeRuggedProf:
So the CARVER has TORN his craft?
We said wait below N2.00 they rushed to give people parachute and assured them of safety....
Where was the safety?
Looking at the crashed craft now wondering if Loco was on board.

See as d prick small.

Risk - Reward Management 101

Regarding JIJO, I have come to realize that if a sustainable system is used it can be very rewarding (maybe ). Even a 1.5x risk reward ratio with 30% accuracy can yield cool returns( not really ). A lot of people here do better sef ( ).

To prove a point;

1.5x means risking a portion of capital to return 1.5 times that portion. Eg. go in a trade with 1 million and risk 100k (@ stop-loss 10% of capital) for a target gain of 150k. (1.5x is terrible but I still used it as case study.)

While 30% accuracy would mean being right at least 30% of the time. (30% is very poor but I still used it as case study.)

With this set up, the expected value would be (0.3 x 1.5) - (0.7 x 1) = 0.15 (0.15x)

Thus, 1mil capital, 100k risk caped and potential reward of 150k or higher with 30% accuracy should return 15k ( depressing ) on average per trade. I am pretty sure some people here can do much better. Oga Loco and Madam Mcy56 comes to mind.

Requires stocks with good liquidity, moderate volatility and a solid strategy.

Note: 15k is just 1.5% of capital and still be a loss given brokerage charges. At about 2x and 40% hit rate is breakeven . May not be sustainable as a business sha except u are good at it.

Pro status could be 2x at 80% .

TLAX:
This will be a very dangerous game in present day markets. You can try this with stocks like Neimeth and a few others (thinly traded and very little information out there) but will be left holding the short end of the stick when you try it with toast of investors in NSE. There is more free flow of information on market and associated activities. What you described above is how people like Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie and other Robber Barons built their wealth.

The point I was try to make was that some FPIs and other deep pockets can enter the market codedly without announcements expecially for highly liquid stock that trade large volumes on d daily basis.

Zenith and some other stocks can swallow 10 million usd in the space of three months without raising price considerably. That is what I assume, I may be wrong.

Rem22:
Please,i lost my share certificate but have the receipt i used to purchase the shares. Now,their stockbroker are asking me to provide shareholder's account number on share certificate which i cannot remember because i used the account last about twelve years ago. Please what can i do? Please i need an answer asap

Can you locate the brokers that facilitated the transaction? They can still have ur records.

TLAX:
Additionally, "locals" with capacity to move the market seem to be very satisfied with risk adjusted returns they are getting from government and corporate bonds as these are routinely oversubscribed in multiples. FPIs cant get out so they are happy to play along till the door is open. In a situation they have found themselves, they are opting to be exposed to only currency risk with guaranteed income rather than take a combo of currency, price and market risk.

When they do decide to take on price/market risk, everybody will know. That should be the time for retail investors to tag along and deploy additional cash. For now it will be long and nervy waiting game for all.

Not necessarily, you can read the following excerpt if you got the time.

"Typically larger buyers tend to slowly and discretely accumulate, given the opportunity. They have deep pockets and are the ones who tend to put a bid under a stock. Naturally they want to buy and accumulate at the best possible overall price and thus, as they build out a large line of the stock, they do so patiently so as to not goose the stock higher, which would be detrimental to their desires. They prefer to see the stock work back and forth—not run higher. If it did the latter, they would not be able to purchase the stock at reasonable price points.

The enthusiasm to buy is somewhat subdued and that is because the stock is probably under accumulation—not mark-up. The mark-up phase comes only after accumulation is mostly done, and that is when you see the large and fast gains. Even in the mark-up scenario there is ebb and flow, but it comes less frequently and retraces are minor compared to directional surges.

Once a large buyer or a group of buyers builds out a large line of stock, it is in their best interest to hold it and to see to it that good stories circulate; bullish stories about how this or that may happen. The old adage on Wall Street is that for every stock, there is a story, and that's quite true because Wall Street sells stories; they sell hope, hype, and the promise of future potential. As the stories circulate, the large buyers attempt to goose the stock higher, creating additional interest in the stock in an attempt to lure additional buyers. If they succeed, prices will move even higher, and possibly much higher. This period is the mark-up period in which price gains momentum and owning this or that stock is all the rage. Think greed and think back to stocks such as America Online and Enron. These stocks had spectacular rises on suspect fundamentals. They also eventually crashed right back down from where they came. Huge money was there forthe taking as long as you could read the chart properly and exit prior to a spectacular fall.

As prices get marked up, large holders of the stock begin to sell into the strength. In a similar way that accumulation happens, distribution begins to occur. This is the process of slowly selling the line of cheaply accumulated stock at much better prices, and to do so discretely and slowly so as to not arouse suspicion. This process was prevalent 90 years ago and there is no reason to believe that it no longer applies. The price action supports the idea that this game of pushing the stock higher then discretely selling into the rise remains with us today. It is called distribution. During this period, the stock ebbs and flows exceedingly although the trend begins to change. Most of the time it is subtle and the distribution period remains for a reasonably long period of time. For most stocks, it usually coincides with a top in the market. Eventually a mark-down period ensues that breeds fear and, though the market continues to ebb and flow, retraces become less pronounced as the bearish trend intensifies"

TLAX:
Since early 2018, NSE has largely diverged from NYSE and S&P 500 (and other major markets i believe). In March 2020 almost all exchanges in the world took same pattern because of twin factors of COVID 19 and global oil prices. However, it appears that the divergence between NSE and at least NYSE/S&P 500 has resumed. Something concrete and unique needs to move NSE away from being flat or declining and it wont be the stimulus package announced in USA or Europe. There are still many issues holding the index down. I believe at best it would recover to January 2020 level and trade flat till there is concrete regulatory action to attract that stimulus money.....or some other action that nobody can predict for now.

For now I hope for the best but prepare for any eventuality. For those traders (not long term folks) who bought the dip in March 2020, I just think its wise to take some profits now. If eventually prices shoot up, folks will be in quick order to use cash and catch it as it goes up. It it doesn't, you wont loose much. You can also watch out for that one or two maverick stocks that will make folks laugh to the bank between now and December.

***Not an advisory. Just my random thoughts.

Looking at ur chart I see the deviation clearly, I also noticed something else, some months before the crash, precisely from October 2019, NSE Index was growing quite rapidly, faster than any other previous interval on the chart. Maybe, if covid-19 never happened it might have continued. My thoughts.

Ok

Justcul:
No sir, I mean when you read charts, they are viewed in different time frames e.g. daily, weekly, monthly, yearly.. etc. Even intraday sef

It helps the readers a lot in making decisions.. these time frames in most cases show different trends and support/resistance levels..

ok, I used the daily time frame. Each bar represents one trading day. You have a point though, I will look at the weekly as well.

RabbiDoracle:
Banks will breakout this June and July.

For 4 weeks, all banks have traded flat.

Even economies that are worst than Nigeria are having serious bullish stock market. It is imported liquidity that drives the market not fundamentals of the country. Though fundamentals of individual companies are taken into analysis.

Market will rise and rise fast.

Look at the fall of stocks:

In 4 weeks,

Zenith fell from 18.10 to 16.15.
GTB fell from 25.30 to 23.15
UBA fell from 7.25 to 6.40
FBN fell from 5.85 to 5.30

All in 4 weeks. This is too meagre to be call a bear. Bear ravages portfolios in only 1 week. When bear does 4 weeks, heat go don too much

This is a very strong bullish run loading after the unexpected consolidation.

Sir, I am not contesting whether prices will move up, if you can remember i made analysis with charts before. Here it is again.

ositadima1:
As for FBNH, the current pattern looks like an ABC (not sure if it is a zigzag or flat but definitely not a triangle) . Ok, so I overlapped the Fibonacci for the Internal retracement (0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786), External retracement (1.272, 1.618, 2.618) and 3 point projection (0.618, 1, 1.618).

I found this price zones as high probability targets for wave C

Zone 1 : 8.46 to 9.12 (about 56% gain from current price)
OR
Zone 2 : 9.74 to 10.28(about 80% gain from current price)

Mind you, this values will take about 4 to 5 months to attain. Very possible gamble for midterm players.

Again do ur DD i may be very wrong.

Note, after point C a major price reversal usually occurs.

Justcul:
Just to encourage you, always indicate the time frame you are working with.. very important

I'm happy you are working with FBNH as I hold certain interest in the stock. In fact, it has 4.05, 4.5, 4.75, 5.0, 5.70 value points..(just my opinions and little research)

I know these points of hand, just as I do for gtb and zenith.. it helps when you have your cutlass sharpened >:

Price will exit identified resistance/support at either end. It could exit at stop-loss (4.65) which is unlikely or exit at 5.7 which has a higher probability. If u are asking me for how long it will be ranging in between then i will say i am not sure, may be a week or a few weeks.

RabbiDoracle:
Banks will breakout this June and July.

For 4 weeks, all banks have traded flat.

Even economies that are worst than Nigeria are having serious bullish stock market. It is imported liquidity that drives the market not fundamentals of the country. Though fundamentals of individual companies are taken into analysis.

Market will rise and rise fast.

Look at the fall of stocks:

In 4 weeks,

Zenith fell from 18.10 to 16.15.
GTB fell from 25.30 to 23.15
UBA fell from 7.25 to 6.40
FBN fell from 5.85 to 5.30

All in 4 weeks. This is too meagre to be call a bear. Bear ravages portfolios in only 1 week. When bear does 4 weeks, heat go don too much

This is a very strong bullish run loading after the unexpected consolidation.

When price breaks 5.7 with less volume, 5.7 will be re-tested later and then give the guy who exited with profits a chance to re-enter again at a good price.

It appears that zone A-B (Support) and zone C-D (Resistance) are in play. If I am correct FBNH will be bouncing between this zones in the short term, with A-B ranging between 4.9 and 5, while C-D ranging between 5.25 and 5.7 .

The implications are that for a short term JIJO trader an entry at 5 would be ideal, stop-loss set at 4.65 (risk/reward ratio: 2:1) and take profit at 5.7 (15% profit). Already, one bus has left the park at swing point PSPL. Will it head to its destination or retrace to pick more passengers?

Notes: I came up with this support/resistance by anchoring to relatively significant price bars. A an B because those bars had volume expansion, C and D because the bar had a wider price spread as well as a high relative trade volume.

Some guys will argue that if price breaks 5.7 it will continue its up trend, well not necessarily. If price breaks 5.7 with less volume, 5.7 will be retested later and then give the guy who exited with profits a chance to re-enter again at a good price.

Enyinne:
Sir , pls share the registrar contact so i can email them and if u hv any number,kindly include it . It seems like all this registrars needs some chasing around before u can get paid .

customerscare@unitedsecuritieslimited.com
+2348162881632

Danniee:
My Dangote Dividend never land, be sey na only me remain...

Me too. I contacted their Registrar and got this reply.

"Dear Sir,

We sincerely apologise for the delayed response.

Kindly be informed that we do not have your signature specimen on our records as your shares were purchased through secondary market, presumably without the completion of a purchase transfer form. We hereby advise you liaise with your Stockbrokers and execute a purchase transfer form with CSCS, as this will enable us process your dividend request.

Thank you."

Have u filled ur purchase transfer form? It is like each stock u buy at once need to be mandate by CSCS. Just mail ur broker, request for the form, fill and send back to them.

Sefiuu:
Thank you for your response .
I’ll check again tomorrow for an update from you.

I didn't get dividend, I need to fill a purchase transfer form for d stocks with my broker to be mandated by CSCS.

Enyinne:
Yes i hv sir and hv gotten reply over a week ago that my transfer form and e dividend hv been verified but till now no payment recieved.please What else can i do in this situation

I am newbie o, I know d basics only . Check all their addresses and phone numbers here:

https://cardinalstoneregistrars.com/contact-us/

U might pay them a visit in person.