₦airaland Forum

Multiplier7:
I bought zenith when it was 16.25. Guys pls any hope to redeem something from it at all?

Advice needed pls

Turn it to long term, or just wait, it will meet and pass ur purchased price for sure. Don't sell now o.

FBNH at 5?

Chibuking81:
We are still much more in bonanza period, market within this period will be doing one leg up, two leg down, one step forward and two step backward. Just remember your waiting junction within this month, Access and UBA will likely visit #5 region, Fidelity and FCMB are not far again from #1.5 region and will likely test it, Zenith #13 region, GTB #19 region.

locodemy:
If fidelity will go down more,there is a very strong support at 1.60.Because of the strong support at 1.60,you can cherry pick btw 1.65-1.69.

I came online very late.Those of you who were here when the trading started,was zenith and Gtb able to touch 14 and 20 today.If yes,Good luck to those who bought at those prices.Reversal has finally occured.

Expect upward trend from next week.wicked one

Enyinne:
Nwanne, whats the best entry price for fidelity and fcmb , its ur field, kindly advise me on these. Thanks

FCMB that will first touch 2 before anything. In my opinion, it is better to start buying in "trenches" from now as it may turn around north anytime. Yesterday drop was caused by just 1.6m units, the buyers were absent, probably doing something else, and they will be back soon.

eimuhb:
Please which app can I use to set price alerts?

You can create alerts with investing.com. You can do that both on their android app as well as their web version. Mind you, you have to first register an account and create a portfolio of stocks, then after u can create the alerts for d individual stocks.

locodemy:
I am just waiting for this TA I spent over 50K to learn to prove me wrong in this June/july,I know what to do.

leo1234:
Don't mind him.
Like Oracle said, those that bought in March low have nothing to fear.

As for Zenith, 14.35 (due to wide bar plus large volume) is a strong support, if it is breached the next strong support is 11.05 (due to large volume). If it drops below 14 it may be better to sell and wait for it at 12.6 or lower. My thoughts.

from d weekly charts 23 is likely later in the year.

Olaide1295:
I don't know if this is possible but it's what i'm gunning for. I started visiting this thread when i was 16 years.

Now, i am 23. I earn above 600k salary. I invest 250K monthly in Digital agriculture and then 100K in bitcoin. My goal is to do this with 25% -35% returns for 17 years.
I know digital agriculture is risky but i try to invest in the safest of them all.

My risk appetite is much bigger than most of the elders here.

But i'm hoping to retire by 40 years so i can focus on learning and teaching.

I suggest you put some of the monies for the Digital agriculture in good dividend paying stocks for d long term, just to diversify and edge against risks .

Mcy56:
Market Makers.

Deep pockets?

Mcy56:
I already said ......let me come and be going o.

Whatever affects fidelity will affect fcmb ......either up or down, they move together.
So, if fidelity is down, don't expect much upward swing with fcmb, no matter how the MM tries.
Also note that Fidelity in my own opinion is the leader of the tier two banks as well.
That's my opinion.

What does MM stand for

ahiboilandgas:
Funny enough an investment of 100m in 2015 used to buy 10 trucks at 10m each generating 500k permonth has generated only 220m in 5 years ....if i now take out depreciation and sell all the trucks todays at 6m each it will be 50m ....so in five years i have 260m and grey hairs while my oga invested in 5000sqm land facing an express way within an urban area and sold for 280m without any stress .....i ended up creating jobs for tyre sellers ,vulcanizer,spare part dealers,drivers ,motor boys and operations staff....insurance firms ......while my mentor was busy attending board meetings in 5 star hotels me i was busy doing shouting match and galvanizing around depots

Economists call it opportunity cost. It is the job of d investor to compare investments and attempt to seek the ones with the most returns vs risk.

emmanuelewumi:
Possible with small funds and businesses. We are talking about returns from multi billion naira businesses.

Ok, I see.

emmanuelewumi:
Not possible, to have 35% average returns. Any Investment that will give 15% to 20% average return is not doing badly at all.


N1 million at a compound annual growth rate of 35% will grow to N20 million in 10 years, N400 million in 20 years and N8 billion in 30 years.

And yet in the previous pages on this thread, you and some other posters have mentioned people that did the same impossible.

I wonder if the reason it is hard to accept or swallow same, in the form I presented it, is because I broke it down with real numbers.

emmanuelewumi:
Better to have a realistic projection and be pleasantly surprised, than over estimating to your returns and later find out that you under performed.

That's true Sir. For those who can;

It is better to aim high and miss than to aim low and hit.

unite4real:
This is a classical case of a chicken seller and a chicken buyer.

A chicken seller lifts his chicken up, spread both wings and made it look big and says " buy my big chicken for N4,000".

The chicken buyer collects the sample chicken from the seller, closes both wings and holds it by the sides and says " but this ur chicken no too big na, I go pay 1k."

Another classic case is a man who buys an 18 seater danfo bus @1,000,000 naira for transport business. He calculates that each passenger from point A to Last bus stop pays N200. 18 passengers fills the bus At all trips. Each trip will be N3,600. Round trip is N7,200. 10 round trips in a day will be N72,000. In one month is approx 2M. So every month he buys 2 more danfo. Each Danfo produces 2 danfos every month. After 12 months, you now have 1+2+4+8+16+32+......... Which is almost 4,000 danfo buses.

These cases make people jump into some kind of euphoria when they make up such calculations without minding the lessons life can teach you in the process.

He cannot get 35% every year for 20 years unscathed.

U made alot of sense, but, the 35% is an average. Some years maybe 10% some others it can be up to 70% but averaging out over the 20 years he expects 35% . Even 200% is also possible in a given year.

It is doable. If not, how did these rag to riches we hear about get there? I mean d honest ones.

Grupo:
I wanted to point that out as well.

Well, maybe he's being hypothetical.

I was being hypothetical sha, I started work with less, I have already saved-up more than that in 10 years. I am not a lecturer though.

It now remains the investment part and the 36 years for compounding and God on my side..

ahiboilandgas:
Things i learnt from my Oga ....after his phd and lecturing job he found out that salary cannot make him rich and retired at 40 ....he started investing very early using 20 percent of his income ......he narrowed to two items ....real estate and Good shares ....his real estate portfolios exceeds 5 bn naira ...so i ask him why is he selling some properties (some people might think he broke)..he said no cos he buy properties as investments and once he earn 100 percent above within 5 years he let go....he not emotional attached to any property ...only his family home ....2 he is in audit committe of several companies and director in some .

It is doable. Let's assume he started lecturing at 24.

For a salary of 300k, if 20% (kept asside for investing) for the next 16 years ==> 300k x 12months x 16years x 20% = 11,5200,000 .

Assuming he is good at investing in real estate and stocks.

11.5 mil compounded for d next 20 years at 35% yearly return will be nothing less than ==> 11,520,000 x ( 1 + 0.35 )^ 20 = 4.66 billion !! .

That is 36 years of saving and judicious investing with God on his side. It can be done, I am trying to do this.

Peoples blood spattered everywhere, what is this no?

ositadima1:
Thank you for this. I am yet to fully understand the 100k rule. If a stock sells for let say #1. Does it mean that #100k can move d market?

Lol at d bolded.

I thought a little about it, it will move only if there is a general consensus, that is, majority of the players in the market at that time should agree to higher price point or else it will drop back in the next few bids.

RabbiDoracle:
You can't move market that way. It depends on the news driving the market at that point in time. If the news is bullish, participants will buy up the stocks. Covid19 is causing a rush into health companies. This is a positive news for that sector.

Try and move universal insurance. You will see those that have been trapped for 10 years that want to exit.

Thank you for this. I am yet to fully understand the 100k rule. If a stock sells for let say #1. Does it mean that #100k can move d market?

Lol at d bolded.

onegentleguy:
NO its not "in a way"... he is totally correct. NEIMETH is nothing but a bunch of P & D coy.
So both of u are RIGHT my dear !!

It is well.

Lol, your sarcasm is well appreciated.

onegentleguy:
Why u dey bother urself naw?
...abeg leave @ GonFreecss1.
Lets just agree to his view. ...NEIMETH is a P & D coy.

He is RIGHT !!

In a way he is right, one below average investor can single handedly move the market. It is harder to do with NESTLE.

GonFreecss1:
And how much is currently moving the price?

Why not tell us that first.

You mean volume wise?

onegentleguy:
Let me help u.
The way to this is to apply the concept of the TIME VALUE FOR MONEY to know if ur better off collecting the bank loan. There are 2 key lines to verify this:
The 1st scenario is where u work for ur money while the 2nd is where u allow ur money to work for u.

SCENARIO 1;
The 1st thing u need to ask urself is; would that amount I'd receive from the bank/loan firm today be worth what I'd give back in 3 yrs?
Put differently, is the N708,508 I get today really worth the N947,880 i'll pay back in 3 yrs?
The idea is to look to ensure that u got a better VALUE from the "weight" btw the funds borrowed and the interest paid at maturity. That "weight" draws from the risk-reward margin.
Hence, we need estimate the PRESENT VALUE(PV) of that future value(N947,880) u'll pay to the firm at maturity, then compare it to what they're offering u now to see if its truly a worthy move.

Based on the data u provided;
Future value FV= 947,880
Our interest rate p/a will be a peg that's >/= current inflation rate(@12.4%). So r=12.4%= 0.124 while n= 3.
Now using the formula for PRESENT VALUE, PV= FV/[(1+r)^n)]
Therefore PV= 947,880[1/(1+0.124)^3]= 947,880/(1.124)^3...
which should simplify as approx N667,505
So in essence, that N947,880 u'll pay in 3 yrs is actually worth N667,505 today.
The interpretation of this is that the firm is offering u approx N41,000 more than the actual value of what u would naturally get elsewhere based on current economic realities.(i.e 708,508 - 667,505)
...which makes it a good deal on the surface.

SCENARIO 2;
What if u were to invest that monthly remittance u'll be paying to the firm(N23,330.70) on ur own, and compound it over the same 3 yr period? ...more like looking to see if u can get that money u'll derive from ur salary deductions to work for u, rather than borrow and work for the money.
...would it be more valuable?
Again, we need to do an estimate, but this time, it'll be a different formula... the FUTURE VALUE OF ANNUITY WITH CONTINUOUS COMPOUNDING.
The idea is to find out if u would be better off saving that monthly N23,330.70 in a fixed income instrument(say fixed/time deposit) by estimating the future value of that amount in 3 yrs.
Using the formula for future value of annuity with continuous compounding FVa= CF[(e^rt-1)/(e^r-1)]
where CF connotes ur initial cash flow(i.e N23,330.70)
Most banks will offer u btw 5-6% cap on fixed deposit, so we'll equate r as 6%. Hence rate prorated monthly= 6/12=0.5%... so r=0.5%= 0.005
t is the time period= 36 as we have a 3 yr period expanded in months.(i.e 12x3) while e is the Euler's constant.
Therefore, FVa= 23,330.70[(e^0.005x36)-1)/(e^0.005)-1]
Which will simplify as approx 917,945
So FVa=N917,945
The interpretation of this is that ur monthly salary cashflow of N23,330.70 @ 6% interest can have a value power of N917,945 in 3 yrs.
Again, notice how this value is N29,935 less than what u would've paid the bank at maturity should u decide to go for the loan.(i.e 947,880 - 917945).

Hence, since both scenarios shows u are better off collecting the loan, then indeed, u are better off.
...so YES, its a fair deal.
JUST GO COLLECT THE MONEY FROM THE LOAN FIRM my dear !!

NOTE: Ensure u take ur time to read through the T&C of the loan agreement before appending ur signature. Most financial bodies will often include "hidden" clauses that infer additional interest-bearing charges, which could potentially mean that u will actually have to pay more than that FV peg of N947,880.
If possible, seek the guidance of a reputable investment banker/adviser and/or lawyer/solicitor to help demystify any agreementin context before executing any deal. ...this is VERY IMPORTANT !!
Pls do well to be guided accordingly.

Hopes this helps.

Nice calculation.

I also noticed that with 12.4% inflation rate from scenario one, #708,508 received today will be worth 708,508 × (1 - 0.124)^3 = #476,274 (in today's money) in 3 years time . From the point of wealth preservation, if I am correct, unless the money is yielding more than 12.4% annually it will end up losing value in the next 3 years.

An then, u also add the original loan to it, and it becomes obvious that atleast 23% yearly is needed to maintain breakeven.

I never really understood this inflation thing sha.

locodemy:
@chibuking.That my paper profit has been converted to real profit today at 1.90.

My target price is met today at 1.90.

Those in the bus should sit tight and enjoy their ride.I be jijo man by nature.

What is d next 10-10 bro, I am with u, FCMB do well. My target is 1.96, I hope it meets it.

DeRuggedProf:
The patients dogs of yester years ate the fattest bones.
The patient dogs of today will eat the by products of the greedy dogs of today....

I hope u are actually making money o, all this ur parables, let it not be just audio for the grams.

Nwokeomajayb:
I left computer village and I’m in a better position to tell you that you’re wrong with this analysis. We do buy from China and Hong Kong. We peg our prices according to the expenditure and demand. I’ve sold a phone with 40k profit even more than that. I’m talking about real deal because slot and Jumia do buy from us. Don’t mention that naira overvalued again please because it’s not true.

I checked Jumia again and it appears that the least price was #290000. #290000/$600 = 483

Ok, you are correct, their is a lot to consider. Maybe, price in a Samsung direct outlet in Nigeria should give a better comparison.

Mind you, I didn't come up with the concept, I am not that clever , if you go through the article you will also see a similar comparisons made by an Australian bank with ipods which they called Ipod Index.

AdaoraNK:
Make me understand why you used $600 as the basis of knowing the true worth of naira to USD using Amazon and Jumia pricing as a case study.

Phone is the exact same in both countries. An American will spend 600 units of their currency to buy it. A Nigerian spends 315000 units to do same.

Meaning for every dollar spent by the American a Nigerian spends 525 naira (315000 ÷ 600).

I believe it is just a rough estimate.

Olaide1295:
So I have been thinking about this. I found a fault in it which is that you used an imported item. The price in Naira is already based in the fallacious exchange rates.

I think a good test will be to compare price of a bag of rice or any other commodity consumed in both countries

You are right to some extent. But, Samsung is owned by south Korea, the phone is made outside the usa. So, both USA and Nigeria are importing the same phone from same manufacturer, except Jumia sourced the phone from the usa which I doubt. I don't know, but if it was just fallacious exchange rate then it should be #420 × $600 = #252000 , again assuming both retailers sourced from same source and roughly gained same profits.

Anyway, the link explained it in more detail.

GonFreecss1:
We are not even talking about the economy. Lol.

Just the “currency”. Currency is not just the value relative to another currency. The actual amount in circulation matters a lot. Just like how shares outstanding matters for stock.

Never have I heard someone say “Nestle” has more value or is more expensive than “Dangote Cement” because of it’s price. And say “Nominal price”. Who actually does that?

Can it exchange for more? Yes! But that’s just about it.

I understand your point. What I was saying is exchange rate may be insignificant to residents of a particular country. For example 10, 000 squids(imaginary currency) may exchange for 1 USD but some guy earns enough squids to live same standard of life as an American who is in a similar job. To that guy the fact dat 10, 000 is to 1 doesn't mean much. We are saying the same thing sha.

Theconglomerate:
Shey you now see why I said naira is overvalued and artificial na.
It is one thing that is drawing this country back.
Everyone keeps buying things at the government's expense.
If we can eliminate stealing and review the naira as Emefiele is doing currently,Nigeria will boom!
We will have so much local and foreign reserves to fix all we need to fix in this country I swear.

So much conflict in ur statements. Is it one thing or two things. How many things?

Regarding the yen vs usd comparison, I think that exchange rate alone does not measure wellbeing of the economy.

You also need to factor average earnings of the citizens of that country. A cleaner in Japan can buy a new Toyota sedan after saving seriously for 3 to 4 years, same in the USA.

A cleaner in Nigeria cant do that in the next 15 years.