₦airaland Forum

yMcy56:
Who are those queing up for OANDO today @+10%?
Osita you dey among?

Always read my posts carefully and take time to understand them—it will help you. Didn’t you see where I mentioned that those who bought at very high prices will come to average down? I don’t need to spoon-feed you, o. No dey do like that my Sis.

KarlTom:
Hello Sir.
I politely disagree with these estimates of yours.
I have a 7.5kVA PV system so I know what I am saying...except you failed to disclose that you installed your system at least 4-5years ago.

A 15kVA PV system in 2025 CANNOT cost less than ₦10m (and I am being modest here)...

It’s not that much if you can scout for the materials your self. Below is a simple Excel calculator to estimate the cost. The prices are my estimates from platforms like Jumia and Jiji (note that I use Jumia a lot).

I intentionally did not include labor costs. Also, for solar setups, a 15kVA system is roughly equivalent to 15kW because the 0.8 power factor is counterbalanced by the 0.8 system efficiency.

My bucket list keeps getting longer by the day. When I finally meet my Creator, I’ll confidently share how I helped souls on that rock—while some people will mostly have stories about comparing bananas and pineapples.

RSQLPython:
Hello folks, any recommendation on a stock to put 10 million? I want to leave it for 10 years with the hope of it growing YOY and with good dividends. I will appreciate any suggestion.

If this guy had taken my advice the next day, on November 22, 2022, he would have bought Gitco at 19.5. His ten million would now be worth 30 million, plus more than 4 million in dividends. I know to some of you this is just "chicken money," but to me, it’s cool that a stock tripled in someone’s portfolio. Has Mcy56 ever tripled your portfolio?

ositadima1:
If my TA projections are any good, we may see Oando drop below 50 in the short term, possibly around 46. But, it may recover quickly as investors who bought at higher levels attempt to average down. As a new investor, be sure to analyze carefully before making a buy decision at current price.

Yeah, my doing.

yMcy56:
Make una learn to dey respect your elders then. 😁
I hope you're joking for saying you don't know him.
Visit his page and add knowledge to your understanding concerning stocks and investments in general. 😊

LOL, I showed you evidence of making good money on GTCO, and this is your response? LOL. I’m done derailing. If you like, keep comparing apples to oranges.

yMcy56:
The financials were solid, but people bought at above 30 due to the financials and later saw their funds being eroded due to the heavy, non stop sell off that crashed the price to below 20.

If you don't know anything about WanajO, then you don't know stock market fully then.
He's one of the DGs of SEC and NGX. Also a portfolio holder in Tinubu's govt. 😁

My point was that, FA sound stocks could also have issues that could affect the share price negatively as well.

Ok nah, I be baby where you dey na, na 2020 I enter stocks.

yMcy56:
The issue with GTB wasn't about transition to Holdco but had to do with GT and Innosun together with some insider politics and power at play then.

Even Agba jumped in @18 after watching the film to certain series that time......many ran and the likes of Agba cashed out on them.

Respect to Oga WanajO who identified it as goldmine then.

You remember this guy?

RSQLPython:
Hello folks, any recommendation on a stock to put 10 million? I want to leave it for 10 years with the hope of it growing YOY and with good dividends. I will appreciate any suggestion.

My response to him

ositadima1:
From ur moniker i see u do R, SQL and python, with such skills u could develop ur own signals in ur spare time and come here for validation and quality control , there is a lot of data out there to play with.

U can check GTCO, it has been falling in a way that is not in tune with its performance. As mentioned here it could be dat some foreign investors are pulling out of it.

I thought it was a good buy 2 weeks ago, it still is. Its current closing price is below 15 percentile of its last 10years. Meaning that it is currently trading below 85 percent of all its closing price in d last 10 years.

The stock has maintained a growing revenue, pat, equity and eps in d last 10 years. Current dividend payout is above 15% (i think its currently topping d market). Pays dividends without fail annually.

Even if d seller(s) is not done pulling out, what ever price drop will be recovered as d market price in its many positives.

I advise u crunch the numbers and see for ur self.

Here is Agba making jokes of my reply.

Agbalowomeri:
This market is only 30% science
Coupled with so many nuisances, algorithms will through you inside the deep blue sea

Then this from me.

ositadima1:
This...



Then this...




Since d first post, Nov 14 or so, GTCO has returned roughly 26%. I am literally kicking my self for not buying more, should have put d whole emergency fund in it then.

Me fooling around, LOL

ositadima1:
Let me be honest with you. I don't execute all the predictions I make, nor have I ever claimed to do so. However, that doesn't diminish the accuracy of my predictions .

At the time, I was in need of money, but the profit I earned from GTCO kept my throat and d**k wet for several weekends .

This was Abas response, here is when I realized he entered the stock

Agbalowomeri:
So you sold GTCO already. We are headed above 40 Lol

Okay, I’m busy now. Later, I’ll show you where Agba and even you were pessimistic about GTCO.

yMcy56:
The issue with GTB wasn't about transition to Holdco but had to do with GT and Innosun together with some insider politics and power at play then.

Even Agba jumped in @18 after watching the film to certain series that time......many ran and the likes of Agba cashed out on them. 😁

Respect to Oga WanajO who identified it as goldmine then.

Whatever. My point was that the finances were intact, so I bought the dip back then. I know Agba joined later. Let me find my post from that time—you can verify.

I don’t know anything about Wanajo. I do remember Agba initially saying it would fall because of the GTCO situation, but later, he started buying. It’s all here; let me search for them.

Streetinvestor2:
Walahi I wish I could get a soft loan now to buy seriously. I still bought today at #52.The thing dey pain me say I am out of liquid cash at this time because I restocked for the yr in my active businesses. I will try my sis if she has cash.I don't do interest loans because I don't want pressure

If you’re confident in yourself, take the loan. Oga Ema takes loans when he’s sure.

yMcy56:
In as much as I wouldn't want to say anything much on OANDO at this time, I'll just want to AGAIN advice those in it not to panic sell at loss.

Those selling are mostly not on queue......
We can never know what these guys are up to sometimes.....Once they want a stock at certain price, they'll do all to get it, nothing any retailer can do about it.....they have deep pockets and call the shots in this market.
So also, when they're ready to move it, they get the job done.
I think patience is required at this time.

When GTB was dumped all the way down to 17/18 that time, there was no theory we didn't read here but the fundamentals were still intact then. Not too long after that, the story changed.

If you don't trust Wale, maybe the best thing is to stay away from his stock!

You always seem to compare apples and oranges—why do you do that? When GTB was selling, it had no financial issues; their profits were intact. How can you compare that to Oando, which currently faces severe financial difficulties? I don't understand you sometimes—are you involved in it? Oando may eventually sort itself out financially, but the current reality is bad and not comparable to GTB. As I recall, GTB’s issues were related to their transformation into GTCO and the unfounded fears that were created; even I was loading with my 50 kobos as it declined, as was your Agba. What exactly is your thesis?

Where is Streetinvestor2? We warned you guys to be cautious when buying Oando earlier this week—my technical analysis gave me clues. Personally, I’m in it, and I bought at a higher price. But it will recover as those who bought at even higher prices average down. After that, I’m not sure what will happen. Oando will need to come up with some good news.

No be by gra gra oo, na surgical operation we dey do here o.

chimex38:
EV cars without charging outlets..

Even the current CNG needs infrastructure to buy the populace interest..

I wonder how the gas is filled.
I learnt lifting 1 of such cylinders na night mare
Takes the entire car occupant

What's that story of Malaysia banning CNG and returning to Petrol due to hazard or so..(even though both Na fossil)

Germany of all countries who are the super powers of renewable energy in Europe could not practicalize what they sanctioned-Ban on Russian oil.
Na them still import the oil pass to power their industries despite their solar advocacy and consumption.

Most solar related products are like the Android-Go OS Version of main android OS
Or rather the Browser Lite version of main browsers

They can't realy compare to heavy load requirements of their counterparts without efficiency being affected.

How about the Solar functionality during winter season of 3-5months in these western and European countries?
Moon dey sha

Powering precision industrial equipments 24/7, not to mention 3-phase motors without redundancy and high initial starting capacity?


Fossil till take over, well into the next generation ..

Now, I bet you’ve never heard much about geothermal energy. Cold climates like parts of Canada, Alaska, Sweden, and Norway use it. In fact, the lower the temperature, the better. Read up on it.

Regarding the issue of energy storage at night, many technologies are being updated. We have wind energy, which performs well at night when tidal currents are strongest. Some places even use massive sand silos as thermal batteries—during the day, they heat the sand to extremely high temperatures, and at night, they pass water through it to generate steam and recover energy.

There are also man-made water reservoirs. During the day, water is pumped up to these reservoirs, and at night, it is released to turn turbines. Another method involves lifting heavy concrete blocks—these weights are raised during the day and dropped at night, effectively converting potential energy into electricity.

So much is happening. Do you think Oyibo is happy giving away money, especially to Arab countries? They are working day and night on solutions. One day, a major breakthrough will come. Do you know how long they worked on GSM technology? Do you think it just happened overnight? Eventually, they made it market-viable.

Anyway, I’m done derailing.

Instead of una to put chaplet for water they bind spirit of oyibo innovation breakthrough you dey there they argue, ok nah.

Streetinvestor2:
What I know is crude oil is going nowhere till christ returns. ALL this renewable and green energy na noise.
Africans that can not afford new cars still they manage tukunbo cars way old pass 10 yrs.
Or is it that thing the call solar energy that you will spend over 4 million and it only carries lighting points,fan and other light equipment in the house.Then after 2 /3 yrs you are told the batteries has expired for you to bring above 2 million again to replace them.How many of those heavy factories in china and India are being runed by such energy.
We never see power supply to take do better thing with the 5kmw plus that is being generated na the one to charge car.
In the next 20yrs alhaji never recover the 20 B dollars he invested in that refinery na him you dey take say oil will be less important. Na big lie..
Oyibo no wan make we use oil money too to develop our country after they have developed thr own

That’s how the NITEL guys felt at the time—invincible—until landlines became obsolete. I remember how important they were during my childhood and how rude they could be if you had issues with your landline. Getting them to trace a fault was a big challenge. Today, most of them are out of work or have switched careers. Nobody uses landlines anymore. It took less than five years for landlines to go from being the primary communication provider to becoming irrelevant once GSM mobile networks were perfected.

Do you think those countries use petrol to run their industries? Even coal has been phased out in India; most of their power now comes from renewables like hydro. Petrol is mainly for cars and motorcycles. If Nigeria refuses to start diversifying, they will learn a hard lesson soon—along with the rest of us. Once petrol is no longer viable, the government will resort to heavy taxation to sustain its wasteful spending, and then everyone will feel the impact. If you think things are hard now, you haven’t seen anything yet.

Eh go do una vam for eye, when he go begin, all these Arabs have already diversified there wealth, make una dey dey hope on oil. Dangote is already a rich guy and over 60 years, he no concern am, even if refinery park today him go still dey very alright. Just dey pray make oyibo no get breakthrough soon, or else ur body go tell you.

As of 2024, China possesses approximately 1,200 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing capacity, which is about twice the global market demand. This capacity encompasses the entire production chain, including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules, with China holding more than 80% of the world's manufacturing capacity in these areas.

China manufactured over 220 GW of PV modules in the first half of 2023, marking a 62% increase compared to the same period in 2022. This surge in production aligns with China's strategy to meet both domestic and international demand for solar energy solutions.

KarlTom:
Not to be a kill joy, I am 100% a proponent of clean energy.

However, it is currently neither easy nor cheap and I do not think it will be easy or cheap anytime soon.


1. As at 2024, about 200kWh of energy is consumed to make a single 100-watt solar panel
2. You rightly mentioned Nuclear Fusion, which is not adopted my many countries because of the risks involved.

In the event that we have 50-50 of EV and GV, PMS demand will reduce and I want to believe that its price will drop (although I foresee a high emission taxation for GV.

Biogas did not get the desired breakthrough in the energy space because of the huge CapEx.
Not everyone is able to afford the initial outlay, so long may fossils reign!

China is mass-producing solar panels at an astonishing scale. Do you know how many panels China produces in a year? The number is staggering. Entire cities’ worth of land are being covered with solar panels, and in some countries where land is scarce, floating solar panels are now being used. The percentage of global power generation coming from solar is increasing every year.

Don't just take my word for it—Google the percentage of power generation from solar in the USA, India, and China over the years, and see for yourself how rapidly it's growing. Even in Nigeria, solar energy adoption is rising. Just look at the rooftops as you move through the streets, and you'll see it for yourself.

KarlTom:
In summary, "the bolded"

If we look at most raw materials and minerals, their prices are largely driven by exports outside Africa. But what do you think will happen to the price when Africa itself becomes the primary consumer of petrol for transportation? Even the safety of people living near crude oil sites will not be guaranteed. Do you think the government cracks down on illegal refineries and guards crude oil because it truly cares about your safety and mine? By then, everyone will become a refiner—you could buy crude and refine it in your backyard.

KarlTom:
25 years is not 'just'. It is actually a 'generation'...

Funny enough, I read an article over the weekend with a fair number of EV users willing to return to fossil powered vehicles. The main reason was the length of time it took to 'recharge' the batteries...

I believe that we will see major improvements in the automobile industry such as self-powered vehicles (wind, solar), faster chargers etc. AI also has a huge role to play here. Until then, fossil fuels will remain with us.

Trucks and heavy machines should also be considered in the bigger picture.

Bro, the future is electric and powered by renewable energy. And that future isn't far off. More electric vehicles are being built, and billions are being invested in solar panels and battery technology.

Did you know that current solar panels convert sunlight at less than 30% efficiency? This means future panels will generate more power per square meter as technology improves.

I bet you don’t know about the Tesla Semi—big trucks are already running on electricity. Even now, with a few million in Nigeria, you can be self-reliant without needing external power for your home.

Work is also being done on nuclear fusion, the same process that powers the sun. It’s far more powerful than traditional nuclear fission. If you subscribe to electrical magazines, you'll be amazed at what's happening in this field.

That said, crude oil will still be needed for many byproducts like plastic, synthetic rubber, lubricants, and fertilizers. Eventually, these will be the primary reasons for drilling, which will reduce oil revenue while increasing the cost of these byproducts—since gasoline currently subsidizes them.

Africa, however, will continue using petrol-powered cars for a long time. Just look at the Mercedes 911 truck—that thing is older than me!

If my TA projections are any good, we may see Oando drop below 50 in the short term, possibly around 46. But, it may recover quickly as investors who bought at higher levels attempt to average down. As a new investor, be sure to analyze carefully before making a buy decision at current price.

Sunrisepebble raised a very strong point—read his submission below—but none of the people who posted in Oando's defense cared to address it. I saw a lot of half-baked attempts, with some outright wishful thinking.

Oando gained over 300 billion from forex gains, which is not a constant, and spent over 200 billion on operating costs (excluding COGS), ending with about 60 billion in profit. (I'm quoting from memory, and you can verify my numbers.) His point is very valid: operating costs are high. Imagine if there had been no 300 billion windfall—the result would have been negative.

I expected reasonable defenses, such as an explanation that the high operating costs might be due to merger with NAOC and temporary or other factors. Instead, what I found here was very disappointing.

Sunrisepebble:
My opinion on this company changes on the daily. Note I own Oando but purely for speculative purposes. The more you look the less you see. The financials are really not good at all. It is a serious loss making business. The FY profit is largely due to the huge FX gain in Q1 and tax credits in the subsequent quarters. Finance costs are wiping away all the operating income. The business could easily make a loss in this Q1

Let me list the various defenses presented here and highlight how nonsensical some of them are:

mikeapollo:
Yes, what you said is largely true.
They just need to raise some equity funds to eliminate or significantly reduce the finance costs.

The main factor attracting investors is the quantum of Oando's crude oil reserves, over 1 billion barrels.
Even at 50% recoverability and conservative estimates of USD50 per barrel and N1500/$, that should give N37.5 trillion naira which is in far excess of their liabilities and operating costs over the foreseeable future.
Hence, in the worst-case scenario, even if Oando should go under today and is to be acquired by another company today, the value per share cannot be less than N1000!

But I am not sure if oil companies are allowed to revalue their reserves and recognize the revised values in their books

This person is busy calculating $50 per barrel but has completely ignored the costs and financing involved in lifting the barrels—totally childish.

yMcy56:
Panic retailers selling.....
More opportunities to load in my opinion.

Someone said the remaining shares for distribution might ikely not come as bonus again after June qualification.
It may come as dividend instead.......

I still see this selloff as opportunity to load more, for those who still have spare funds.......and of course, bargainers are loading.
The quantities on offer aren't that much.

I still don't see how OANDO and ETERNA will be trading at similar or closer value...

This person is comparing two companies with different ordinary share structures, which is worse than wishful thinking. This is the same self acclaimed in-house prefect who is quick to call out derailers yet falls short themselves.

Streetinvestor2:
Nigeria has been officially confirmed by opec to have met her approved production. Though the government claims they are doing beyond that and the budget is based on over 2M barrel for 2025.The government has target of 4 M by 20230.
And street sense does not tell you oando will beat many stocks here in appreciation in future.
God give me money to be increasing my afolabi units. Who are the guys increasing this oil production maybe na farmers into the business...lol.

Just checked Market for today and surprised sugar is above #40. We wait to see what is coming soon

Another one failed to address the elephant in the room—what is the point of increasing revenue if costs are rising even faster?

At the very least, I expected someone to propose a partial solution to this concerning issue or simply deny that the problem exists.

Please, lets stop derailing before madam Ncy56 vex.

mikeapollo:
You and I know that Nigeria is an aberration!
But even at that, as an Anambra man, you can still occupy a leadership position in Lagos. We have had people from the south-east appointed as Commissioners in Lagos in recent times (a Commissioner is leadership position)
But even if that is not the case, two wrongs do not make one right.
We should condemn what is wrong or bad, and use the best practice as the benchmark or desirable standard.
The moment we choose and adopt the wrong or bad thing as the standard practice, we are all doomed and finished!

I want the governorship or nothing—LOL.

But on a serious note, Russia sees NATO building bases in Ukraine, right at its border, as a national security threat. You may not fully understand these matters, but strong nations take them very seriously. The U.S. would have done the same. You don’t allow your perceived enemies to set up camp right next to you.

The U.S. tends to use other tactics—regime change, sanctions, and inciting internal conflicts—to weaken a country. Russia, on the other hand, chose to go straight to war.

mikeapollo:
Great and Interesting!
Russia saying or demanding something does not make such demand right, factual or reasonable by default!
What then is the value of independence and sovereignty of a nation?
Just my 2 cents. Peace

I made it clear in an earlier post—true freedom does not exist. I can live freely in Lagos, buy land, establish a business, and even marry a beautiful Lagos Babe (if she gree). But as an Anambra man, can I truly aspire to a leadership position in Lagos?

Before you answer, remember that Nigeria is one country, and we all have equal rights regardless of where we live.

mikeapollo:
It is a fact that it was Russia (Putin) that attacked Ukraine. Would you expect US and Europe to fold their hands and watch? Of course they had to do something to deter or check Putin and sanctions were the first line of action, followed by military support to Ukraine.
Put yourself in the shoes of Ukraine. Would you fold your hands and allow anybody to bully you and your people just because he believes he is stronger or richer than you?
A Yoruba proverb says that whatever you cannot accept as a rich man, you should learn the courage to start rejecting it even when you are a poor man.
If we accept what Putin did to Ukraine, then we should be willing to accept all forms of racial supremacists, discrimination, injustice, terror attacks etc. going on around the world. It would mean we have accepted that ''Might is Right''!

I am trying to engage with you respectfully, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult. Did you follow how it all started, or were you asleep? Before Russia attacked Ukraine, there were months of deliberations between the two countries—it didn’t just happen overnight. Russia made it clear that Ukraine, a former USSR state, joining NATO was a red line. Please take the time to read up on it.

pluto09:
I don't think it is totally correct to say excess cash in circulation was not the issue.
One of the issues affecting naira volatility is excess liquidity. A lot of naira in the circulation will be chasing the few dollar we have, there by putting pressure on our forex with the resultant effect of devaluation.
Keeping the interest rate high was not only to combat inflation directly but to also manage a volatile currency by discouraging a situation where too much naira is chasing few dollars and by making yield attractive for foreign investors to bring in their dollars.

Everything you said is correct, but let’s think a little further—why is so much Naira chasing so few dollars? I believe it's because we are not generating enough revenue in foreign currencies. Naturally, this leads to an oversupply of Naira pursuing a limited amount of dollars.

To connect this to my previous post, you don’t solve a problem by only addressing its effects; you need to tackle the root causes. Has the government done that? Has it declared a state of emergency on security and kidnapping? How did it handle the Dangote refinery saga—a project that could significantly boost our dollar revenue? What steps is it taking to fight corruption? What about the agricultural sector and many other crucial industries?

They seem to believe that simply adjusting a few economic levers will fix the deeper, structural issues. Ok nah.

mikeapollo:
Good commentary.
But also don't forget that Trump will not have it easy with his Republicans and Americans in general if he decides to side with Putin in this war. It is either there is an end to the war, or US will still do something to curtail the power and raging madness of Putin. US cannot afford to allow Russia to win the war as it would be a devastating blow to US and Europe combined.
If the war ends today, no side can claim ''victory''. Ukraine might have lost territory but Russia's (and Putin's) invincibility would have suffered a severe and devastating blow because he started the war thinking it was going to be a walk in the park.
As regards price of crude, I don't foresee any immediate effect on the price of crude because there is still a lot of uncertainty in the horizon. If anything at all, the war in the Israel-Lebanon-Iran axis would have to come to a definite end before there could be any sustainable, significant reduction in oil prices

You are quoting the same propaganda that the U.S. and Western countries have been spreading. In fact, it was the U.S. that underestimated Russia. At the beginning of the war, the U.S. never expected it to last this long. Their goal was to quickly sideline Russia by imposing a barrage of sanctions and pressuring its allies—about 80% of the world—to stop buying Russian oil and gas, all while arming Ukraine.

I remember the media claiming that the war would only last a few months. As always, complex plans rarely unfold as initially expected. Now, the U.S. (by which I mean the elites) has shifted its policies. They made a complete turnaround, which is one of the reasons Trump was elected, and the Biden administration had to go.

Just to be clear, they don’t elect their leaders the way we do in Nigeria—there is always a strategic plan in place. Trump is merely playing a role that aligns with the interests of the elites.

GeneralDae:
If it’s cost push inflation then that makes my point. Increasing interest rates doesn’t solve cost push inflation. So having positive real interest rates like we have now, if maintained throughout the year would prevent CBN from further rate hikes and lead to rate cuts.

What do you mean by "prevent CBN"? The same CBN and government that hiked interest rates when excess cash in circulation was clearly not the issue are now the ones planning to reduce it, using a different excuse.

I agree with you that devaluation was inevitable to keep Nigeria from sinking, but the approach and timing were completely wrong. The way something is handled can make a huge difference—just like in trading. You and I could act on the same stock signal, but our approaches could significantly affect the profits we make.

GeneralDae:
They would all drop. That is the positive thing about the rebased inflation. It gives us a second chance to start afresh after a volatile 2024 with record high interest rates that slowed down growth. Coming from a high base in 2024, 2025 would be better than 2024. Perception feeds into reality sometimes.
At the meeting today though, the CBN may hold in order to see the trend next month or in the next two months at most.
The month on month trend would signal the direction we are going which means the inflation rate for February should tell us more.

Do you understand what rebasing an economy is? Rebasing simply means updating the base year for calculating GDP. But how many people actually pay attention to GDP?

The issue we are facing isn’t even monetary inflation (too much money in circulation) but cost-push inflation (rising input costs). How is rebasing going to address that?