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Ositadima1's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 8:53pm On Oct 03, 2024
BullBearMkt:
A last call?
grin grin grin grin grin
How many times was this orange line (squiggle) rejected before it finally broke through when it decided that enough was enough? Next Oando? Seriously? shocked shocked embarassed embarassed

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:31pm On Oct 03, 2024
Streetinvestor2:
On a serious note @ osita.That profit you posted from that revenue can not be right. Which kind baboon dey work monkey dey chop financial statement.And the 15 is not even right for cost.For naija it 45 and above.
You may be right, that is why I also included an overhead cost of about 15%. I believe if I factor in that overhead, it will add another $15 per barrel, bringing the total to $30 per barrel. Keep in mind that there are still other costs in the spreadsheet that will likely push it beyond your estimated $45. Regarding the Nigerian share, I believe Nigeria takes about 60% of all production, and when you add taxes, 75% seems reasonable. The point is, if Oando are truly producing 100,000 barrels per day, Oando should be generating a very large profit after tax.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m):
megawealth01:
grin
Based on the link posted by Mcy56 (she leaked the forward documents not me incase you are prosecutor grin grin grin), does this make sense? Am I missing something?

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:33pm On Oct 03, 2024
yMcy56:
ELLAHLAKES trying to reverse up as well....
Is it behaving like twin bros of Caverton? Lol.

Osita,at least I made positive post about Ellah now, na wetin I observe for market....

Some Banks trying to add small flesh small today......GT, WEMA, Sterling, Fidelity
What's happening with Oando? Any positive developments? I need to replace my laptop. My budget has decreased from affording an HP to a low-midrange Lenovo. Is there a chance I will buy an Alienware? I have some great games I want to play.

On a serious note, there are some people who bought all their high-end appliances and furniture from the market, including refrigerator, air conditioner, TV, bed, washing machine, oven, etc. I hope you're not among those who paid for this guy's comfort. grin grin shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:24am On Oct 02, 2024
BullBearMkt:
...it is sometimes good to have comedian on the platform cheesy
grin grin grin grin grin
If you know me very well or read my posts, you'll see that, like StreetInvestor, I don't prettify words. I say things as I see them. Check some of your own posts carefully and compare them with the person you quoted. Confirm for yourself if what you are correcting him for isn't plentiful in your own writing. shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:18am On Oct 02, 2024
crownprince2017:
Na the person wey they compare caverton wey yahoo them with numbers with ellahlakes cause am...

grin grin grin
No vex my oga..
Oga ke, nobody is Oga in this market o, some of the so-called "Ogas" have been here for more than 15 years, yet they still engage in the same fights with so-called newbies. You would have thought that after all these years, they would have amassed fortunes based on their wonderful stock-picking acumen. Yet here they are, competing for space with us newbies.

No gree for anybody my brother, you fit dey do well pass all these old monikers. grin grin grin shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:01am On Oct 02, 2024
yMcy56:
Well said Boss.
All these look face comments. When your OGG comes here with his cocky ultimatums, none of you will try to temper his confidence. Even that BBM, many of his posts reek of overconfidence. Anyway, I know the game with you people. By the way, Ellahlakes seems to be doing a turnaround, unlike Caverton, as the initial poster rightly pointed out. shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:31pm On Oct 01, 2024
I read about chaos theory and how a small event can lead to an unpredictable larger event. For example, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 is often cited as the spark that led to World War I.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:26pm On Oct 01, 2024
Iran has declared war on Israel, launching over 100 missiles. I hope we don't see another market depression if the conflict escalates, with other countries taking sides or the possibility of nuclear detonation.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:11pm On Oct 01, 2024
Streetinvestor2:
vex self dey catch me. The stock I saw last month for my 1 million naira challenge has almost done 50%.I saw it at 1.20.Na to begin look for another one.
Happy new month and the month of my birth. I won't say independence because nothing to celebrate for such occasion
HBD in advance, my elder bro.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:50am On Oct 01, 2024
GeeKudi:
It is called living in one's own bubble. Make a post with S, like it with G and share it with the clownish Und grin grin grin
I hope your stock market analysis is not on the same level that led you to conclude that Streetinvestor, Godlyguy, and Undead are the same person. That would be bad, and you would do better doing follow follow. shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:53am On Sep 30, 2024
All of una dey post the same thing. huh
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:30am On Sep 30, 2024
Ginalex:
My wedding gift came in earlier than expected cheesy grin...
But, they go collect am for right issue sha, as he go rise nah, na so right issue go follow dey rise.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:25am On Sep 30, 2024
Ginalex:
MY UBA shocked shocked sad sad full bid o. Bid will scatter everywhere 💃💃💃💃
I dey happy for you, nah to step up the honeymoon things. Congrats.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:51pm On Sep 27, 2024
Streetinvestor2:
You see that victim mentality or format does not work with me.I don't know what it means to be gentle man.My kind of Christian is if you slap me firt.I will not slap you back.I will rather remove your head.
To all mY be concerned. If any one comes here to attack me first and you pretend not to see the rubbish. When I react. Pls don't come to my post to try to me on how to react .It has been playing out severally now.If you don't caution such post then don't respond to mine because you won't like me
But on a serious note, people put their money into stocks and hope for the best, whatever that may be. If you come and cast or speak negatively about a stock, whether true or not, you're bound to get reactions. Would you stand by and watch your child being discredited?

Please, be tactful when criticizing these stocks. I'm saying this for your own safety. Someone might bite your finger off because of a stock, you know. grin grin shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:41pm On Sep 27, 2024
SonofElElyonRet:
Birds of the same plumage...
I hope you change your ways and become more of an eagle. Don't be a wolf; those prey on sheep. Godlyguy is a hyena. cheesy grin shocked

My nah eagle o. tongue
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:31pm On Sep 27, 2024
Streetinvestor2:
I am very happy with myself because I don't come to this thread to hustle rather I I hustle on nse.They are complete two different thing. I can beat my chest and say every stock I have ever supported on this thread has never returned to the trading price when I called it or supported. And if you say I am lying bring out the stock and I will search and bring out the post when I called it out.

Dangota cement
Transcorp plc
Chem
Presco
Uba
Ucap
C and I leasing
Varitas
Wapco
Oando(which is still betnaija)
I no dey do marketing for yeye stocks and have active businesses which is my main thing. Onlike the ones home/abroad claiming audio portfolio which we done decode long ago.Na here be there main marke 24/7...lol.I am thr biggest obstacle to dey continue to hammer for people head with yeye calls.why can't you people try to be like Emma of this thread.
The funny part of life ,they are equally helping me to recover school fees I paid in some of these stock fish like japaul. I have never asked anyone to buy IB since I started making loss in it..If you are not highest mugu how can you even consider dead wood like unity.
BetNaija pays those who know how to play the game. I know a young man like that; I think they call him the Mayor of Ekiti. He won 100 million naira twice in a week, the last time I checked. Unlike some people who bet with 100 naira and expect wonders, this one stakes up to 300,000 naira on games. I'm not saying betting is good, because the guy won't tell you how many times his 300,000 or 400,000 naira bets went to voicemail before winning. My point is that it depends on the individual and their trading style. Some people cashed out of this Caverton situation, even as it is performing poorly, because they have a system. It may be insulting, but I must say it: many people here don't have a system; they are just sheep. That's why the likes of Streetinvestor and the other Godlyguy are needed here, to reset sheep brains. grin grin cheesy shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:38am On Sep 27, 2024
yMcy56:
Caverton don turn it's back again against her faithfuls......full offer @2.68 today again......

.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:09am On Sep 26, 2024
Streetinvestor2:
ok BV in the positive based on asset/liability. Why is the retained earnings still heading south
Why is the total equity heading north for a company that is not generating revenue? Even before the right issue.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:55pm On Sep 23, 2024
NASCON and DANGSUGAR are on a long-term trajectory as predicted; forget about a merger this year. Have you asked why the previous move was disqualified? Rice is yet to generate revenue; it's not even listed yet. There's no time left; maybe next year's second quarter. DANGSUGAR may produce another negative result. I suggest using the money to grow elsewhere, then come back later while you still can. Forget about the refinery; Dangote Refinery is a different entity from Dangote Sugar. The most the refinery will do is lend money with interest to Dangote Sugar. One will not automatically help the other; that's not how public companies operate. You can hate me or shut me down all you want, but like you, I am free to air my views. grin grin shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:47pm On Sep 23, 2024
Fidson finally entered my MC value zone (between 16 and 31)
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:43pm On Sep 23, 2024
ositadima1:
Based on current plans and progress, Ellah Lakes Plc is anticipated to commence revenue generation in 2025. Their 2,400 hectare oil palm plantation in Edo State is projected to commence oil production in 2024, and their cassava processing plant is also anticipated to be operational in 2024. Upon the operationalization of these facilities, Ellah Lakes will be able to begin selling their products and generating revenue.

Its total equity stands at 19.9 billion naira as at the end of July 2023, which has been increasing, primarily owing to land appreciation. The group has been incurring an average of 900 million naira annually to run the farm and business. I estimate that they will expend a total of approximately 2 billion naira before commencing revenue generation in 2025. This amount will be covered by land appreciation.

ELLAHLAKES possesses 5,000 hectares of land, with 2,100 hectares currently planted, while OKOMUOIL owns over 32,000 hectares of land, with 19,000 hectares planted.

Below is a simplified back-of-the-envelope calculation of what may be anticipated from ELLAHLAKES in 2025:

*Currently, OKOMUOIL generates 16.2 billion naira in profit after tax (PAT) from their 19,000 hectares.

*I project ELLAHLAKES to generate 1.8 billion naira in PAT from their 2,100 hectares proportionally.

*Assuming reduced efficiency due to ELLAHLAKES being relatively new, 0.8 x 1.8 billion naira = 1.44 billion naira in PAT.

*Earnings per share (EPS) of 1.44 billion naira / 2 = 0.72 naira.

*At the current price of 3.13 naira per share, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio should be 4.34 compared to 14 for OKOMUOIL.

*Estimated dividend yield of (0.72 naira / 3.13 naira) x .8 = 16%.

Conclusion: If all goes well, purchasing it now or at a lower price, if feasible, would be akin to purchasing UCAP in 2020, lol.

Additionally, I have observed increased interest in the stock in the last 3 months. A stock that previously traded below 10 million naira in a month is now trading 300 million and 190 million naira monthly.

grin grin grin
Chai? eh don dey set!!! cheesy cheesy shocked

Oga Redoil huh

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:21pm On Sep 23, 2024
lexy2lexy:
I’m yet to receive Zenith interim dividend. Is there any other person yet to receive
Panadee:
Same here. I sent an email today to customercare@veritasregistrars.com but it 'bounced back'.

I then sent an email to enquiry@veritasregistrars.com but there has been no acknowledgment of receipt.

Same thing happened to me with the 2023 dividend payment but the email I sent to their customer care was replied and the dividend paid within a week or so.
Received
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:11am On Sep 22, 2024
Agbalowomeri:
Good job baby girl
However, you can hardly get any naija bank selling above PBV > 0.5
Dividend is important. I don't see ACCESS giving N3 so stock price would still hit resistance at that 30. However, I am almost sure that it can do a 30 by 3rd week of January (yes take it to the bank grin) which is 50%. You notice how UBA has been hovering around 23/24. Na majority wey dey risk for 10% dividend. At all at all.... grin. Naija Banks will also hardly sell above P/E of 4 unless we see a RoE of 40%

Sorry to dampen your expectation. Na grey hair dey worry me Lol grin. Apart from FBNH sentiment, all banks will move together and the likelihood of better capital appreciation historically has been better with lower priced banks. It's just the way our psyche is conditioned in this market.

However, maybe we will get a new ololo trend this time.
My MC valuation, based on a 2.25 dividend, falls somewhere between 29.8 and 58.5, given the current outstanding shares.
TV/Movies › Re: What Series Are You Watching Now? Part 2 by ositadima1(m): 7:52pm On Sep 20, 2024
It's as if Snowpiercer ended today. It was a very good show. I binge-watched seasons 1 to 3 and then followed season 4. Well done to the producers!!!
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:44pm On Sep 20, 2024
BullBearMkt:
It can, to form double bottom. The corrections will then change from simple to complex.
grin grin grin grin grin
If the price breaks below the last swing low, we can conclude that selling pressure still exists. The possibility of a double bottom will depend on how far below that level it goes.

We can't definitively call this a correction until we actually see it correct. But, if it fails to break the low swing, we can be more confident in expecting a continuation of the upward trend. My opinion though. shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:30pm On Sep 20, 2024
BullBearMkt:
You are absolutely correct Agba!
As soon as the All-Share-Index completes its correction and closes above 100,528; then...
grin grin grin grin grin
Not only should the upswing break 100,528, but if a downswing occurs, it should not fall below 96,000 (the last low swing). Therefore, it's not yet a certainty until the setup activates. It remains a high-probability scenario. shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:20am On Sep 19, 2024
crownprince2017:
Up till now, pa Emma, aj8, ogg, mcy et.al did not tell me their clear view of fidson based on their recent reports.
huh huh

Sell or hold
ositadima1:
Let me try my hand at analyzing Fidson. Fidson is a tough one, and there may be hidden notes in the 2023 financial report, but I haven't checked thoroughly.

Fidson's cash flow from operations is about 1.54 billion naira, as reported in the financials, which it almost entirely paid out as dividends of 60 kobo per share. However, capital expenditure was several times the cash flow, at about 4.53 billion naira, which I guess was funded by a 6.7 billion naira increase in borrowings for the year.

Most of this capex comes from capital work in progress (WIP), about 3.3 billion naira. A similar magnitude was also invested in the previous year, 2022. I don't know what they're planning, but maybe they acquired some of GlaxoSmithKline's assets. Since it's WIP, it's not yet operational and has yet to generate revenue.

As I mentioned before, debt increased significantly, but the debt-to-equity ratio was still acceptable at 0.96. I anticipate Fidson generating much more revenue and, consequently, profits when the WIP investments become operational.

I hope a FCFE per share of 1.2 naira will not be too far off. Running the MC simulation with 1.2 would put Fidson's value between 16 and 31 naira. Fidson appears to be undervalued.

Note: The key to Fidson's future performance will likely be how well they can translate their capital investments (the huge capital WIP) into revenue and profit growth.
aj8:
Over priced based on eps. Common sense about N3.30 and still falling . Not the type I like to touch even with my health care background. Time to book whatever profits and let your principle run if you are in love with the stock.
Will Fidson enter my calculated value zone, or will common sense prevail, bringing it down to N3.30? Well, let's allow Mr. Time to tell. By the way, MC stands for Monte Carlo, referring to my small simulation engine. grin grin shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:02pm On Sep 18, 2024
creategist:
This is highly unnecessary
Like my highly esteemed friends, Streetinvestor and Streetinvestor2 say, you have no right to dictate to me what I write. If there are any rules that I have broken, do the needful; if not, get out of my way. ASAP... angry shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:59pm On Sep 18, 2024
Megapower:
This is becoming an obsession, just out of the blues
What's the connection?
Wait for part 2. Coming soon... cheesy
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:48pm On Sep 18, 2024
Once upon a time, in Universe 13, there lived a gentle but fearless warrior called Kakarot. He had Vegeta as his childhood friend and was married to Chi-Chi. Together, they had a son named Goku. Kakarot, of the Dragon Balls enterprise, was a passive investor, unlike Madame Mercy56, who was active every day. To be continued... grin grin shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:02pm On Sep 16, 2024
godlyguy:
You can all see that Oando and their marketers don't seem to have the sincere interest of their shareholders at heart.

They don't mind circulating old news just to market it. The politics around it and media hypes is what people are buying for the moment so they have to keep dishing out recycled news to keep the price within a particular range until it gets to their target so they can raise funds from the same people that have not benefited anything since they started this wayo years back. I pity the unsuspecting. You are dealing with manipulative heavy money bags

New entrants should be very careful of this government, Oando and their many marketers here and on many other fronts. See what the government is doing to Alhaji ref. And you want to believe them on this Oando packaging? Someone said E go cast and everyone wants to swallow him.

Safeguard your capital/money newbies until they do the needful and not just selling hopes in hopeviles by whatever means possible

Be wise
You sound like a grandpa who would warn you against drinking soft drinks without explaining the nuances of diabetes. I doubt he fully understands the complexities of the disease, just seeing it in black and white.

Have you heard of the concept of risk parity? This investment strategy rebalances and diversifies a portfolio based on overall risk, not just proportions. Allows investors to include riskier assets if it doesn't increase the portfolio's overall risk, potentially reaping higher returns.

For example, I did my "double your money" challenge with Oando when it was trading at 15 something. While 500k is a significant sum (maybe not grin), even a 50% loss wouldn't have significantly impacted my entire portfolio.

My point is that no stock is inherently bad. What matters is your investment approach. There's nothing stopping a beginner from investing in riskier assets, as long as they fully understand the risks involved. shocked

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