₦airaland Forum

Trojan8:
I don't understand you. You brought revenue projections using 100k/bbl which was what I was refuting. How does it rate to 2p reserves? This guy.

Meanwhile, there are reserves for a reason. Not sure where I mentioned anything about Oando but being able to repay their loans if it involves selling off assets. Plus before the acquisition Oando already had over 505.0 barrels of oil in reserves. If I take your "analysis" serious, one would be tempted to say that they should have sold of their reserves in order to facilitate the acquisition but real life doesn't work like that. Again, I am not sure how countering your revenue projections has any bearings on the Company's valuation in itself or their ability to repay their debts.

You would be fine.

You dey find my wahala. You dug out an old post, then you said the production would be 40,000 barrels. I reworked my spreadsheet with that data, but you shrugged it off as ThisDay propaganda.

I then pointed out that they have 1.2 billion barrels in the ground according to the same source you are quoting. So, now it's a mining problem to get to that 100,000 barrels, isn't it? It's either about increasing the rate of mining or the number of wells. It seems like you only want your opinion to be heard.

So what's the point of quoting my post? You don't even know why it was made in the first place.

You're the one who will be fine in the end.

Trojan8:
Nope, I just do analysis of the sector. The minister would always say things that are optimistic which isn't always true. Should I bring various quotes of where he gave timelines that weren't true about Dangote refinery?

"Oando expects the acquisition to significantly enhance its production capacity from the current 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/day) to 60,000 kboe/day, effectively boosting Nigeria’s oil output and reinforcing the country’s position in the global energy market. It also expects the transaction to drive local economic growth by creating jobs, improving infrastructure and fostering technological advancements in the oil and gas sector."

This is from Afrexim bank that basically financed the deal with the a facility worth $650.0m.

Ok, from the same Afrimex website: "“The joint venture, with significant oil and gas assets, including oil mining licenses 60, 61, 62 and 63, has produced 4.4 billion barrels of oil and 12 trillion cubic feet of natural gas to date, with 1.2 billion barrels of oil and 10.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas remaining,” the bank said."

That 1.2 billion barrels is more than enough to pay off the cumulative loan of $950 million. In fact, even a small fraction is sufficient if we consider a conservative price of $60 per barrel, which would value the reserves at over $66 billion. PA Ema is looking for net asset value - is this real or just another hype by Afrimex?

Trojan8:
Oando average production is around the 25k/bbl. mark. Factor in a very bullish estimate, that 100k is not possible. Even the 20% upside From 4 OMLs won't even push peak average production beyond 52k. Post integration of this acquisition, Oando should average around 40-45k/bbl.

So?

Streetinvestor2:
My oga pls what is the OS of this companies. I have tried searching I no see even cscs own

Why u no go their website, eh dey there.

https://www.frieslandcampina.com.ng/ng/financials/

ok, i converted to PDF. Attached.

Enjoy.

Happy Weekend

There is a podcast (a weekly audio program) that I follow which discusses billionaires, how they started, their influence, and whether they are good or bad. They featured Dangote in their program two weeks ago. I finally decided to listen to it, and it was quite eye-opening. The often-discussed topic of monopoly is true, though in a complex way. He donated large sums of money to Obasanjo's campaign, and in turn, Obasanjo favored him quite well. Dangote made his first billion in 2008. They talked about a lot in the 38-minute episode.

godlyguy:
You want me to respond to this? That will look unnecessary to me. If you have that time to check all these then you really have time for what don't pay your bills

Oga sorry ooo, no be watin i mean be that.

ProphetUtuocha:
Oando... proudly Nigeria's leading IOC!

Can you help me understand why this is a good move by Oando? Is the refining business really that profitable? If so, why is the government of Trinidad selling its refinery? It obviously won't serve Nigeria, as we already have Dangote's refinery, and several others will come online soon. I don’t see Nigeria importing refined products in the future.

I thought Oando’s equity was in negative territory—wouldn’t it be better for them to focus on achieving profitability before stretching their finances again? This move would make sense if they were already involved in refining and this was a way to expand into Central and South America. In my opinion, it may not end well. There might be a short-term bullish effect on the stock, but what about the long term?

Shalom428:
Taxing capital gain on a market that is already fragile will only lead to the collapse of the market. Investors will leave in drones and take their money elsewhere.

Q2 capital importation is nothing to write home about , we are canvassing for investors to come, yet we want to introduce stringent policies that will chase them away.

It is well

I've observed that many of these policies are being proposed or implemented independently by different ministries, rather than being coordinated centrally. This lack of cohesion is concerning sha. Too much chaos.

Streetinvestor2:
As a shareholder you are part of owner of the business
1.You collect me 30% as cooperate tax plus,vat, educational tax etc
2.When my business makes profits and pay me dividend. You collect 10% WHT
3.When I make gain as appreciation for my business. You want to collect another 10%

Is this not like 50%.And at the end thr is no subsidy in anything. I provide my water,power via generator.state and local government will still collect from different way.I will still pay income tax to state government.

The matter chocke oo.

Omooloriredade:
You see the loophole?

Anyway, there will always be loopholes in tax laws. Robert Kiyosaki, author of 'Rich Dad Poor Dad,' has written a whole book on legal tax evasion strategies in the US.

Omooloriredade:
Fair enough! However, 10% FIRS law is not sufficient evidence to disprove the fact that Nigerians have been getting away with paying their fair share of taxes on capital gains in the stock market which among others is what BAT is seeking to address. It's been a long time coming.

This is the reason for the reform. It won't be 10% flat rate and the new regime will ensure no one can escape it.

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/ng/pdf/clarifications-on-the-provisions-of-capital-gains-tax-act.pdf

Alright.

GeeKudi:
From AI

AI is prone to hallucination, Please provide a screenshot of the Capital Gains Tax Act.

GeeKudi:
Yes. I am aware of this but at the moment, gains from stock trading on the NSE is exempted from income tax. Osita doesn't seem to know.

Please, be informed, you are required to pay a 10% tax to the FIRS on all capital gains, including those from the sale of property or stocks. Even the sale of your old car join.

Omooloriredade:
Your mantra here is "facts only". You mind showing me the 10% tax from your capital gains you have been paying to the FIRS? If you can't seem to find proof, I'll understand.

VAT on commission is not tax paid by the investor but by your broker. Your broker is paying the govt tax on the commission he received from your trade.

I don't need to disclose my personal information to substantiate a factual discussion. I can simply provide evidence that the 10% FIRS tax has been in place for a long time.

As for the VAT on commission, it's deducted directly from my account. I'm not familiar with how your broker handles it, though.

pluto09:
You mean you have been paying capital gain tax of 10% to FIRS??

ositadima1:
You weren't paying taxes before? For every share of stock I buy or sell, I pay tax on it. Even dividends are subject to a roughly 10% tax. It seems like you've been enjoying tax-free benefits alone all along. Which broker do you use?

GeeKudi:
Is it not common knowledge that we don't pay tax of stock sale and purchase? But, only on dividend?

Another criminal!!!

Omooloriredade:
Hopefully you understood my post.

Now, you mind showing me the fair share of taxes of your capital gains have been paying all along? You don't have to show the value the categories will do.

Sample below:

Is VAT on commission not a tax? Capital gains realized from selling stocks are subject to a flat 10% tax paid to the FIRS. So, have you been remitting the 10% capital gains tax to the FIRS? Please don't tell me you are a criminal.

What happens when you lose money? In other countries, you can get tax deductions. Does that apply here? The taxes I pay now don't seem to consider whether I sold at a loss.

Omooloriredade:
This was one of the first changes I expected BAT to introduce based on his record as Gov of Lagos state. Trading on the NGX was such a delight because of this loophole.

If the bill passes, it brings Nigeria in line with most western countries in terms of ensuring individuals are paying taxes commensurate with their income.

In my opinion, the direct implication for NSEMPA members is that you will be paying taxes for your capital gains (when you sell a stock) and dividend income (the 10% WHT will be taken into consideration). I believe this is the direction BAT is going. Your profit from the sale of any asset (stocks in NSEMPA's case) will be taxed at a rate based on your "tax bracket" determined by your income level for that year, in line with most western countries. Your total dividend income for the year, capital gains from asset sales, salaries/wages, business income and losses will all be considered in calculating your fair share of taxes.

Of course, I agree corruption will have to be dealt with seriously now. You can't tax NSEMPA 30% of profit from sale of Oando Presco loot only for politicians to embezzle it.

A new tax regime is coming for sure. I have been expecting it. Banking your entire loot may no longer be possible. Keen to see how they will be implementing this change.

Btw, my focus was NGX because this is NSEMPA but crypto, forex et al are included.

Disclaimer - This is just my opinion. I may be wrong in parts or in whole.

You weren't paying taxes before? For every share of stock I buy or sell, I pay tax on it. Even dividends are subject to a roughly 10% tax. It seems like you've been enjoying tax-free benefits alone all along. Which broker do you use?

yMcy56:
Make una no vex o......but can you guys just take these Naira/PMS discussions to the appropriate thread on NL before the politics guys invade here.

Let's stick to the purpose of this thread pls.
The discussion is becoming unending. Haba!!

Haba, shebi una Oando discussion was running into tens of pages, we beared it, so bear with us.

essentialone:
All these una argument no concern me. All of una go school pass me. All of una get money pass me. All of una speak English pass me. I no dey argue with people wey pass me. Na learn I dey learn from them.

essentialone:
4. Funds is not really an issue as I have suffered and struggled hard and raised something in the region of 9-figures.
5. And I do not like to personally remain in Nigeria. I am not one of your patriotic Nigerian citizens who will want to stay back and rebuild Nigeria. After all, even Tinubu and Buhari and Atiku and Obi lives abroad. 😂

You don finally japa? 😂

RodgersAkpafu:
I'll tell you one fact
The federal government was defending the naira when the naira was at 500, and there was a wide gulf between the official and parallel market


I'll give you another fact
the current administration washed their hands off such policy and closed the gap between official and parallel market

You really think if emefiele took his hands off the naira the way cardoso did, that things won't fall apart the way it did ?

You Nigerians need to drop this mentality of yours of being overtly optimistic and transfixing what you think/want reality to be, as the possible reality.

Another fact that you are looking for
Nigerian student admissions to the UK grew 50% I two years span and dropped 34% when the exchange rate became unbearable (suggesting a strong positive correlation)
I can't tell of other countries, but I do know the UK very well

Take it from me
The naira WILL NOT do a 30% appreciation even in two years
If it stabilises, or have a 10% uptick, I'll consider that as a win

the economy as it stands cannot deliver that in two years

or with the exploding foreign public debt obligations and servicing we have to do (further outflows) or you want "facts" for this one too ?

you really expect a dramatic uptick?

Not to talk of the naira being a heavily shorted currency from big banks in London

My people
the odds are against you

una dey play.

First, do you understand the concept of ratios? Let me repeat: when the naira was below 500, Nigeria spent over 90% of its dollars on refined products, sugar, heavy machinery, and grains. Why were imported consumer goods less than 2%?

Telling me about students going abroad is irrelevant—that has been a constant, even when the naira was 1 to 1. What about the dollars they repatriate?

Check here: https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/

RodgersAkpafu:
I disagree with you on this one

I may not be as pessimistic as he is, but I won't totally write off his main premiae because I share the same sentiment.

As one with........ my experience
I believe I'm in a good position to give some insights on this matter

So here we go

As I mentioned in my preceding post, from a behavioural economics standpoint, Nigerians are a special breed of animals

One can use surface analysis and say for example, because oil imports is like 40% of the demand for forex, and we don't need to import anymore, therefore the naira will appreciate 40%

That looks good on the surface but economic realities, especially for a country like Nigeria would betray such arguments

Nigerians generally have a penchant for "the good life" and imported things
You really think our demand for other imported products won't go through the roof if there is a temporary pull back in the value of the naira ?

A lot of imported things have been suspended by Nigerians because the dollar has become somewhat out of reach
wait till there is a small pull back
that's one


Two, we have thousands of Nigerian youths who plan to flee Nigeria using many routes, one of which is the foreign studies route
let naira shed 25% and watch what happens in that space as well

What about banking professionals who have been "pauperised" because they can no longer afford foreign trips ?]

Add continued fiscal recklessness to the mix
it's even more messy.
And an ailing economy to boot ?
That's why I said that the naira will stabilise AT BEST at the current rate
maybe a 5 to 10% Max appreciation cos all these factors will interplay at the same time and push the price to a "settling point"

I no longer like discussing without facts, and I’m not theorizing.

Nigeria spent over 30% of its dollars on refined products, even when the exchange rate was below 500 naira per dollar. If you want the stats, they’re available from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics. After refined products, the next largest imports are sugar, some grains, cars, and large machinery, while consumer products made up about 0.5%.

So, unless you have contrary data, my question is: why didn’t Nigerians splurge to the extent that it became noticeable in the proportions when naira was less than 500? Please, facts only.

RodgersAkpafu:
a cheaper dollar from a behavioural standpoint will make Nigerians splurge more on foreign products
for dollar to really have a reversal, there has to be a multi sectoral approach, not just looking at it via the oil sector

It's called comparative advantage—you don’t need to manufacture everything. You just need to focus on what you excel at to thrive. Once Dangote starts exporting, you’ll understand what I mean—not just petrol, but also plastics, bitumen, fertilizers, machine oils, and raw materials for beauty products. More refineries are on the way.

Anyway, as I usually do, I’ll quote these posts at the right time to remind you.