₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
Madam thanks for this dedicated work.You see another penny stocks with better fundamentals....chams you are doing well

As i see d coded buying, i bought small to generate small cash for my weekly groceries.

yMcy56:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42534_ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42532_HONEYWELL_FLOUR_MILL_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42531_FLOUR_MILLS_OF_NIGERIA_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42533_CWG_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42529_SFS_REAL_ESTATE_INVESTMENT_TRUST-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42535_CHAMS_HOLDING_COMPANY_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

Chams! So this is reason for d coded high volume, hmm.

emmanuelewumi:
I have been trying to post attachment to show that he does use DCF. He detests it. He does use EBITDA also


He gets the 10 year forecasted value and then multiply the figure by 0.25..

Based on this if the forecast is that the investment should be worth $500 in 2033, he will value it at $125


My last post on the subject matter

Do what works for you

Alright.

emmanuelewumi:
He has said it on several occasions that he does not use discounted cash flow. He likes to keep things as simple and as uncomplicated as possible

You can do a Google search

What I described is Warrens variant of DCF


He also uses PBT multiple and owners earnings multiples instead of net income used by most investors

I can’t see your approach to discounting annual earnings. Let me remind you that Buffett studied business and economics and would not make these types of errors in calculations. I’ve reviewed several books and watched videos by Buffett’s followers, and they all use the standard method. I have never encountered your method before. If you’d like, I can provide references. We learn every day.

emmanuelewumi:
That is discounted cash flow.

Warren Buffett doesn't use it because of its many assumptions.

What he does is to get the growth, compound for the next 10 years or adjust after the 5th year. Whatever he gets in the 10th year will be multiplied by the average PE.

Discount the final value by 15% backward for 10 year to get his own Present Value.


It might be Mathematically wrong but it has been serving his purpose are it is very easy for people like me wey no sabi mathematics

Reference the book or post let me see.

Streetinvestor2:
Based on your approach you could be right which will shoot the value above his own Based on method he used for margin of safety. All that is going to be shouting 1k and 1k plus for that stock. This is a stock that does not need to pass #400 now for our own good.Abi you want to be adding more when e reach 1k.Abeg I no want watin happen for saplet happen yet here.This is our own crude oil as we missed saplet.
Walahi each time I see the price wan go up.My mind they cut.i bought some total at 230 too.Na this kind valuation push the thing reach 600.Since then I no fit add better quality. I know you go still wan buy more going forward..lol

The issue here is the calculation, not Presco. The calculation is incorrect, and it would be wrong for Zenith Bank, UBA, or any other company. Do you understand?

emmanuelewumi:
He tried to get what a stock should sell for in 10 years time based on the earning growth after which he will discount the 10 year value by 15% or just multiply the answer by 0.25 to get the present value

You still don’t get it. Let me explain again: if a business is expected to yield 500k every year for the next 10 years, and you want to discount it to the present value to determine the business’s worth, you need to discount each year’s earnings back to the present value individually. So, each 500k should be discounted separately using the formula you posted earlier. If you were to receive a total of 5 million only in the 10th year, then your current approach would work. But in our case, you’re receiving 500k year after year. I’m not sure how else to explain it.

Streetinvestor2:
Osita na beg I dey beg.Free this maths for presco. No put sand for this garri as per valuation yet.Allow this stock to still come down for us.No come make the stock out of reach.This stock is worth below #400..Thr results is audio for now

Brother, no be math, he should just accept that he is wrong this time, base on his 50% annual increase in EPS. That is what I am arguing. Shebi, when you are right about something you would hold your ground?

Or you fit bet, lets bet 50k that the way you discounted it is wrong, call your broker or banker and ask, no be math something.

emmanuelewumi:
I am not talking Mathematics, I am talking common sense as used by the Oracle. You might read more on it.

I think he called it reverse something

Please don't speak like that. I'm explaining the correct way to handle discounting. Anyway, I'm done with this—go ahead and do it your way. You're the expert, right?

emmanuelewumi:
Warren Buffett will forecast the EPS for the next 10 years based on his projected growth rate then multiply by the average PE or justified PE of the stock whichever is applicable.

The will give him the expected value of the stock in 10 years time.

He will then discount the value by 15% to get the Present Value of the stock

I understand that, but if you want to discount, you need to consider each year's earnings individually. For example, if the earnings in the second year were 78 naira, you would discount that for 2 years; for the third year, 118 naira would be discounted over 3 years; and for the fourth year, 177 naira would be discounted over 4 years. It's important not to discount the final sum over the total 10 years as a single amount, as that would be inaccurate.

emmanuelewumi:
By 50% for first 5 years and 25% for the next 5 years.

Although the earning growth from 2019 to 2023 was over 70%

Not correct, each year generated its own EPS, you have to do the calculation for the present value of each year's EPS separately, then sum it up. I hope bankers in the house can help us with this. Megawealth where are you?

emmanuelewumi:
At a growth rate of 50% for 5 years

N35 grew to N265

At growth rate of 25% N265 grew to about N811.

Which was multiplied by 12 to get N9733.

Discounted by 20% to get a Present value of about N1500.

I decided to give a reasonable margin of safety of about 30% to get roughly N1000

To calculate the present value correctly, you need to discount each year's figure separately and then sum them up. Using an accounting calculator, the proper present value is much higher than the N1,500 you mentioned. The discounting needs to be applied year-by-year to get an accurate present value.

emmanuelewumi:
I used Warren Buffett method, I used a normalized EPS of N35 based on the average 5 years return on equity, I then used a 50% earning growth for the next 5 years and 25% for year 6 to 10. Used a PE of 12.

Got a Present Value of roughly N1000 when it was discounted by 20% for 10 years

Look at your numbers again. Based on your inputs, it should be more than #1,000. Except you didn't factor PE of 12 and considered accumulated discounted EPS only which is unusual. Whichever way not correct.

emmanuelewumi:
At times the creditor might not have any other option to getting his money back other than accepting to cover the loan to equity and then have a seat on the board

The Koko is the loan conversion rate and other benefits as a board member and a major insider

Streetinvestor2:
As oga Agba. He will tell you a brast in hand worth more than 2 in the bra....no mind me I be street

Oga, I'm asking again - aren't 48,000 trees a good start? It seems Ellah Lakes has more potential than I initially thought. Maybe you're expecting the seedlings to start bearing fruit immediately?

emmanuelewumi:
N96 million is not much.

48,100 trees is not much?

ositadima1:
Worth #96.2 million

EllahLakes

What is the cost of one palm oil seedling? Let me assume ₦2,000 per seedling - that would amount to 48,100 palm trees. Is this something real, or is it just another 'audio' as usual, Oga Streetinvestor and Oga Emmanuelewumi?

ndept:
Thanks for the above. These are the ways through which we scrutinize stocks and not by abusing and rubbishing the views of others.

On Ellah lakes issue, someone promised here sometime ago to visit their farm and report back to us and we are still waiting on that report. But in my own views, the palm oil business is not a business that yields returns in the first 5 years, in fact, an average palm tree reaches its peak of fruition from 8 years and above. Therefore, if Ellah Lakes is really into palm oil production like Presco and okomu oil, it will take Ellah lakes at least 5 years to start reaping the gains of palm oil business. That is also depending on when they actually planted the palm trees.

NB: I previously own about 70 acres palm tree plantation and personally bought the palm fruit from Okomu oil in Benin in 2015, planted it in 2016 and sold the plantation in 2023 due to security concern. Therefore, I know exactly what I am talking about.

Worth #96.2 million

emmanuelewumi:
You know good management by keeping or exceeding their promises.

They under promise and over deliver

That was Presco forecast for Q3 2024,

Presco is a #1000 stock, I leave DS run enter Presco when DS began to do any how, wish I entered sooner at 200.

oops, lol

Streetinvestor2:
I expect an improvement in the loss

So, loss fit dey? Chai, Mr. Ellaija Lake no dey alone nah be that. Lol

emmanuelewumi:
I have not been following it for the past 4 months, I will try to read up on the company.

So convenient, lol

emmanuelewumi:
A good analyst should have seen what happened to Lafarge. Over N35 billion was spent as finance cost in H1, they now have almost zero debt. The money going to banks will now come to shareholders.

As earlier said Lafarge is the only cement manufacturer on NGX that will deliver 100% in the next few months

Oga watin u dey see for DS, the result go dey good? Shebi backward integration dey?

Ginalex:

Make DS an NS share their own make we see.

megawealth01:
If I will advise you just ignore his likes as I have always done

The truth is that Streetinvestor makes higher quality posts than yours. It's not about the quantity of posts, brother, but the quality.

Besides, it must be really hard for you to ignore posts when you're always here typing.

ojesymsym:
Nigerians always looking for short cuts to solve serious issues. This is an equivalent of what our own inhouse data analyst was suggesting the other day, to cancel 2 zeros at the end of the exchange rate to create the semblance of parity.

The truth is that Nigeria has to use this God given opportunity to consider exporting their products and services to benefit from this exchange rate, the proceeds when poured into the stock market will be able to buy a lot more quantity of shares.

Please, if you want to reference me, don't misquote me - I never said to remove 2 zeros. Go back and check what I actually said. I've read this publication, and I can tell you that the author doesn't fully understand the concept of exchange rates; their ideas are muddled.

Now, back to my point since you referenced me: recalibrating the naira will not change the economy or make imported cars cheaper, as the author of the publication claimed. Here's what it will actually do:

*It will recalibrate the actual value of money in our minds (after all, there was a time when people were earning ₦30, and a Peugeot was worth about ₦1,000)

*It will give people holding naira more confidence (consider that an iPhone is worth more than a million - try carrying that million in cash and you'll understand)

*As things stand now, the paper and printing cost for each naira bill is worth much more than the monetary value it represents, etc.

But what's most disappointing is being referenced incorrectly - not cool Bro.

You'll be surprised when you start selling, thinking you've reached the peak - you'll miss out on further upward movement. There won't be an overall market crash; what you'll see instead are individual stock corrections, similar to what we witnessed earlier this year.

Of course, there are exceptions - certain factors that could cause an overall crash, which I've listed previously.

if the market continues its current trajectory, it will gradually rise until it matches the true naira value. I can confidently tell you that any corrections will be met with more buying pressure.


Please, no follow me o, do your own DD, nothing way I sabi, na just tumbom tumbom

Locotrader:
The funds going into Apt securities,cardinalstone,Stanbic Ibtc brokers these days is very suspicious.
It is a sign of raging bull.As a result of these volumes,most stocks are now trading in a range.Some has started breaking out,some still consolidating on heavy volumes.I am expecting one news that will spark this bull.

From now to November ending

Have you considered that the naira's value is not what it used to be? All that money you think you're seeing isn't worth as much anymore.

Let me give you an example: a nurse who traveled abroad in 2021 managed to save over $50,000 in three years of work. When she decided to invest it in the stock market, she was able to invest over ₦80 million. Previously, that same $50,000 could barely raise ₦25 million. (Please don't argue about these amounts - I personally know someone who did this.)

All these billions and millions you see are inflated. One plot of land in the villa - I'm talking about land inside, not along the road - is now selling for ₦10 million, something that was selling for ₦2-3 million not long ago.

The point is that most stocks are undervalued relative to the current naira valuation. That's why I was talking about recalibration, so we can perceive the true worth. Most people still look at the naira the way it was a few years back and use that as their reference point.

What I'm saying is quite easy to understand, but I know ego will prevent you from accepting it.

chillykelly86:
I don't think the tax reforms will affect the masses who could coalesce a viable protest. The cadre of people who will be most affected are those who largely are "afraid to die".

As for unrest due to deteriorating standard of living, I doubt anything serious in that regard would materialize. There's a few among most elites to galvanize towards any concensus, maybe for fear of victimization/persecution. I believe a considerably national elite concensus is necessary for the success of any mass action.

Because most people behave like sheep and lack independent thinking, divided by tribal loyalties, religious beliefs, and local political interests.

Raider76:
You still don't get the point. When you misdiagnosed your problem you come up with the wrong solution. The exchange rate is a symptom not the disease. The disease is a non functional economy that doesn't generate enough jobs for it's citizens to earn a living. If you can do that and have a very low inflation where prices are stable the exchange rate will be stable, and people will not bother about the numerical values.

You may not be concerned, but I am, and others are too. That's what you yourself don't seem to understand (about the numerical value...).

You speak as if I don't comprehend Nigeria's problems - the unemployment, bad governance, corruption, and so on. I'm an adult like you (with bills to pay like you), living in Nigeria, so of course I understand these issues.

My argument is that a scaled-down version of the naira will likely give people more confidence in their currency, something that's lacking now. This has been my argument all along. I never claimed rescaling was the solution - you said that.

If you can revisit my first post, you'll see that you've been responding to your own assumptions about what I said, not my actual points.

megawealth01:
If NAIJA make that kind Ghana mistake then it is a gonna

It wasn't the rescaling of the currency that caused Ghana's problems. Let me remind you that the Ghanaian government was taking loans without concrete plans on how to repay or service them, which backfired as they eventually defaulted on many loans. (He dey news well well that time)

I'm not sure about your perspective on this, but I wanted to clarify this point. It's always better to make clear, specific points rather than vague comments so that others can understand your approach.