₦airaland Forum

Una buy dollar for 1,800, lol, una go cry me river, soon.

I wonder why you're here on a naira forum. Why not move on to USD and let us dreamers dream in peace?

Tpharell:
This sounds like the typical Nigerian delusion!

Many of Nigeria’s delusional optimist analysts & commentators pegged dollar fair value at about N800 and many argued that local refining will reduce petrol price. Today we know better.

Even the talk of reduced pressure on fx will likely not materialize, and there will still be petrol scarcity with queues every now and then, like when Lokoja gets completely flooded and tankers cannot move across.

You truly don’t appreciate how messed up the Nigerian system is, such that those ideals simply cannot apply.

Let’s just celebrate the sentimental value that comes with ‘refining our crude ourselves’ and watch what transpires

I don’t respond to baseless arguments. Everything you wrote is unfounded and emotional. Please present facts or refrain from replying or quoting me. In my post, I presented clear facts—follow my example or get lost!!!

rmx:
Free market dictates petrol prices are higher , subsidy was distorting it , but people expecting prices to be lower and dangote to be the savior at the current exchange rate don’t know nothing about business or economics ,just look at the price of deregulated diesel by both dangote and importers , waiting for price to crash is wishful thinking also , just use the average for this year , and that’s around 75$ or so , at that price , it can’t be less than we have it now

pluto09:
I actually can see the naira appreciating.
The only way I think it can happen is by increasing oil production and not all this dangote refinery of a thing.

Lol, in fact, Dangote will be our savior and also save the Tinubu government. In 2023, refined products accounted for about 35 to 37% of Nigeria’s total imports in dollar terms (according to the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics).

Unless something else fills that gap, the dollar is bound to fall. If the dollar falls, the $74 per barrel will cost Dangote and other refineries less, which means lower costs for us as consumers. I haven’t factored exports of refined products into this, but with Bua and many smaller refineries expected to start operations soon, I’m hopeful.

rmx:
Said all this before, read my past comments , the determinants are oil price and exchange rate , exchange rate even more , oil price is at not at highest this year , check the charts . The point is people expecting prices to come down by dangote were living in hopeville , should be very clear to them by now

Give it time; the price will come down as the exchange rate drops, Shebi one analyst said that 1,000 naira per dollar is the the sweet spot , Also, the pressure on dollar reserves will ease, and hopefully, crude production will increase to offset the dollar lost by selling part of it in naira. I believe in the next six months to a year, we will see the naira appreciate.

Agbalowomeri:
5kobo

5 to 10 Naira.

Amber Alert!!!

Watch out for WAPCO and GUINNESS. There are some sentiments reflected in their charts, though I'm not certain whether they are positive or negative.

Have you ever heard the story of the 5 Monkeys Experiment?

5 monkeys were placed in a cage as part of an experiment. In the middle of the cage was a ladder with bananas on the top rung. Every time a monkey tried to climb the ladder, the experimenter sprayed all of the monkeys with icy water. Eventually, each time a monkey started to climb the ladder, the other ones pulled him off and beat him up so they could avoid the icy spray. Soon, no monkey dared go up the ladder.

The experimenter then substituted one of the monkeys in the cage with a new monkey. The first thing the new monkey did was try to climb the ladder to reach the bananas. After several beatings, the new monkey learned the social norm. He never knew “why” the other monkeys wouldn’t let him go for the bananas because he had never been sprayed with ice water, but he quickly learned that this behaviour would not be tolerated by the other monkeys.

One by one, each of the monkeys in the cage was substituted for a new monkey until none of the original group remained. Every time a new monkey went up the ladder, the rest of the group pulled him off, even those who had never been sprayed with the icy water.

By the end of the experiment, the 5 monkeys in the cage had learned to follow the rule, without any of them knowing the reason why.



Happy Weekend.

Streetinvestor2:
At what price did you enter presco.i enter at 345.I sold my old holdings cheaper and put it in my betnaija stock. I have okumu at 50 if I see 500.i will sell to put in bank

@441 in july. I would have entered sooner but i was reasoning how i go take leave dangsugar. When it was under 20% RSI i saw it and it was there for many days. It was 230 then around May. I for leave sugar walker then.

I luv you all, you thought me all i know.

Ginalex:
CP the stock market prophet

Shebi i tell you that time, as i sell na presco i go pack the money, the loss i take sell am, i don recover as presco move, na interim i dey wait sef make eh reach.

Or no be you i been tell. Any way, chart don dey show am since, coupled with all the fundamental wahala i pointed out. But me no be prophet, just regular guy that like to dey ask question like Streetinvestor and dey try learn from you guys.

Streetinvestor2:
Yes I am a farmer from dad and expirence but crop farmer.i no sabi animal farm or farming. Though I will venture into it next yr but will go for seminars and will equally employ the service of someone way sabi.I only by like 5 weeks chicken and feed it to 10 weeks and above before I chop the broiler because many poultry around no dey allow the meat strong before they begin sell.
I am interested in pig/egg laying bird because many are now backing out of the business because of cost of feed.And me I am now seeing it as opportunity to go in mostly the egg own

Egg now nah 300 naira for one. They have tinubulated us.

Willie2015:

You haven't seen anything. Ask farmers in the southern United States about wild pig infestations. They're constantly killing these pigs by the hundreds as the animals destroy farmland. In those areas, farmers beg people to hunt and kill as many pigs as possible.

Money dey agric, no be only palm oil they give money, some people go shock sha when matter go do fiam for them eyes.

How much be one heavy weight pig?

Streetinvestor2:
@osita pls come and help me with the valuation of 500 pigs presently at estimated figures and growth size for q3 results since nothing significant is coming from palm fruit and rice based on freedom of information here

No wahala.

Assumptions:

1. Reproduction rate: Let's assume sows produce 2 litters per year with an average of 10 piglets per litter.

2. Maturity: Pigs reach breeding age at about 6-8 months.
Gender ratio: Assume a 50/50 male/female split.

3. Mortality rate: Let's use a 10% annual mortality rate.

4. Selling/culling: Assume the farmer sells or culls 40% of the herd annually.

Let's calculate year by year:

Year 1:

>Starting population: 500

>Breeding sows (50% of 500): 250

>New piglets: 250 * 2 litters * 10 piglets = 5000

>Deaths: 10% of (500 + 5000) = 550

>Sold/culled: 40% of (500 + 5000 - 550) = 1980

>End of year population: 500 + 5000 - 550 - 1980 = 2970

Year 2:

>Starting population: 2970

>Breeding sows: 1485

>New piglets: 1485 * 2 * 10 = 29700

>Deaths: 10% of (2970 + 29700) = 3267

>Sold/culled: 40% of (2970 + 29700 - 3267) = 11761

>End of year population: 2970 + 29700 - 3267 - 11761 = 17642

Year 3:

>Starting population: 17642

>Breeding sows: 8821

>New piglets: 8821 * 2 * 10 = 176420

>Deaths: 10% of (17642 + 176420) = 19406

>Sold/culled: 40% of (17642 + 176420 - 19406) = 69,862

>End of year population: 17642 + 176420 - 19406 - 69862 = 104,794

Fun fact:
litter refers to a group of young animals born to a mother at one time. A typical pig litter can range from 8 to 12 piglets, though it can be smaller or larger.


Now, would you like me to analyze the numbers? Should I calculate revenue, costs, and profit?

By the way, didn't you mention somewhere that you were raised on a farm in Kaduna or somewhere similar?

crownprince2017:
The management said the some palm trees were at fruiting stage and milling machine has been installed for milling to start by q4.

They also said they now have 50000 pigs.

Will stock brokers know better than the management?

Just thinking out loud..

Nobody is marketing this company for you but no logical explanation to nullify what the management told us.

But what's the problem with pig farming? In the USA, some companies, as industrialized as they are, focus solely on pig farming, covering the entire value chain. They make millions of dollars in revenue. This is even more relevant in Nigeria, where meat is a premium food. In Nigeria, people add just a couple of small slices of meat to a meal, whereas in the USA, meat is often the main component of the meal itself. As always, don't just take my word for it.

Streetinvestor2:
Even in this hunger for street. You are looking for additional bills.You better ask agba what his eyes are seeing right now.
Ok I forgot you case is different as per dollar gang,lol

Mfunkynation:
The advice is:
Leave my babe alone...
E done do ni

Why you dey ash for me, she gree for you? Make eh no be say you wan block my chances, but if ur mind dey there make I clear ground 4 u.

I like Mcy56 💘💘💋, i chike d babe but she no gree o. They talk say never give up, make I continue? Advice please.

crownprince2017:
People expecting ellahlakes to fall yakata...how market now...

Osita and co abeg make una leave oando matter na... Se na only oando they nse..

I dey my own lane o, nah only Mcy56 i dey follow play sometime o, na so dey begin follow me o. Abeg o, Streetinvestor dey here o, na him dey put them for them place wella.

Tpharell:
Soyanara!

Chao!

Tpharell:
I submit to you, rather authoritatively, that Oando is not doing anything near 100,000. They are averaging in the thirty something thousand range at the moment, targeting 40k in the immediate. I have already said and shown that your Thisday source piece is based on an erroneous foundation. Tell them to meet me in court about that!

You know what to do; I've established that from the beginning. Take the matter up with them if their submission is erroneous, not with me. I used input from a public source on a respectable media outlet. I don't know you.

Tpharell:
The “long explanations about BOE, barrels, and conversions, which are irrelevant to my post” are supposed to be education for you but you seem more interested in grandstanding with what is in your head. How can any sane and enlightened mind say the brilliant breakdown and analysis given there were “irrelevant”? Haba!

So, you don't get it yet. For all we know, the breakdown may be grossly inaccurate (to borrow his language). The post said barrels per day, so what's the point of the breakdown, which is itself still an estimation?

If the inputs are wrong, then correct the posts. If my calculation is wrong, correct my calculations. This is my last post on this topic with you. If you don't get it, so be it.

Tpharell:
Unnecessary grandstanding that I don’t want to indulge as i have already shown you that in about a year Seplat shares climbed about 300%

Use the proper terminology so you don't mislead people. There is a difference between drawdown, recovery, and annual return.

Tpharell:
The grandstanding is unnecessary, honestly. Certain people here feel because they are referred to as ‘elders’ they cannot be wrong on matters.
Clearly Oando is not producing 100,000 now or anytime soon, but still grandstanding after forecasting on such erroneous basis?

So ThisDayLive's numbers are wrong? Why didn't you come here earlier? It was posted here for more than two days. And what are the actual numbers? How can we substantiate your figures?

Omooloriredade:
Hence the reason as stated "should have been reported as".

I see you don't like to be corrected.

I take correction very well; that's how I learn. In this case, I clearly stated that my estimates are based on ThisDayLive inputs. I never claimed 100,000 barrels a day was the actual figure. So, I don't see what your correction was. If the figure is wrong, okay, but what I was more interested in were the other costs and whether they are in line. You started giving long explanations about BOE, barrels, and conversions, which are irrelevant to my post. One barrel is about 76 dollars, and the publication referred to barrels per day.

Tpharell:
About this time last year Seplat traded around 1,200 and today its 4,500 that’s closer to 300% than 200%.
Are you just interested in arguing the toss or you are one of those ‘elders’ here who feel they must be right about everything?

Unless your definition of annual return is different, the return in a year is the closing price divided by the opening price.

For example, as per NGX, a stock is capped at 10% daily movement; it can't gain more than 10% in a day. If a stock drops 10% intraday but finally closes at a 10% gain, it still made 10% that day. This is the standard definition, unless you want to introduce your own.

Tpharell:
It came with alot of stress owing to the frenzied and wild volatility. Some here have developed high bp, anxiety disorders, migraines, cognitive dissonance and even sadism (as we see in their daily wailings here) along the way. Seplat on the other hand peacefully and quietly delivered almost 300% in a year, without a headache.

Mister..., Seplat did not achieve a 300% return in any recent years. It opened this year at 2,310 and closed yesterday at 4,513.4, for a 195% return (R+1). The returns for previous years were 210% (R+1) in 2023, 169% (R+1) in 2022, and 161% (R+1) in 2021.

Payunsin:
The money we made from Oando is peace of a lifetime if judiciously used.

Even at the current price, based on publicly available information, Oando is still very cheap, unless management starts playing games. Just bookmark this post; we'll revisit it down the line.

All this over sabi people that can't read.

Tpharell:
Brilliant breakdown!
Forecasting using peak production is like calculating your travel time between Abuja and Lagos using your car’s top speed of 240km/hr. Who does that? What ever happened to downtimes like slow traffic, bad roads, police check points, etc?

I didn't use peak values; I'm not that stupid (In fact I am but not that much). I used 75% of peak values. My inputs are from the ThisDayLive publication. Therefore, you can argue about my costs, but the input clearly isn't from me. Thank you.

Omooloriredade:
Good attempt but unfortunately GROSSLY inaccurate.

* Peak Oil production was not 100,000bbls/day. Should have been reported as 100,000BOE/day. Also, Peak production can't be used for forecasting.
* Based on point above re BOE, you can't multiply this figure by $76 (the price of oil).
* Gas production figure is wrong. Don't know where that came from. Oando produced c. 31,912,680 MMBtu of gas in 2023.
* Average realised price of gas in 2023 was about $2 per MMBtu. Note - Futures contracts are usually used hedge commodity price risk.
* Your annual revenue was therefore grossly overstated which throws off the rest of your calculations.

However, I commend you for this intellectual exercise.

Things to note:

Gas:
1000Scf = 1Mcf
1000Mcf = 1MMcf
1000MMcf = 1Bcf
1000Bcf = 1Tcf

BOE (Barrel of OIL Equivalent)
1BOE = 6000Scf or 6Mcf or 5.8MMBtu (approx 6MMBtu)

Oil
1BOE = 1bbl (basically oil quantity needs no conversion. Unlike gas and NGLs, what you get is what it is)

So when an Upstream company reports production numbers, they usually refer to BOE to capture Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas liquids. Also, you would often see Oil companies qualify an oil well or OML by the proportion of Oil it produces e.g OML ABC producing 70% Oil (that is the % of oil in the BOE).

Did you read the ThisDayLive publication whose link was posted by Mcy56? Or do you just want to engage me for no reason? I made it clear that my inputs were from that source. I also made it very clear that I didn't use peak values but 75% of peak values, as shown in my spreadsheet. If the 100,000 barrels per day figure is wrong, take it up with the source. Here's an excerpt from the publication:
"Today, Oando is the largest supplier of gas to the Eleme Petrochemicals. Aside from the issue of insecurity hobbling its activities, Oando's peak production was 100,000 barrels a day last year and 1.5 billion scf in the case of gas."