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Ositadima1's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:49pm On Oct 27, 2024
Raider76:
But the absolute numbers don't matter so far your economy is functioning and there's no inflation, and you are not crazy about dollars. Take the case of Indonesia. The exchange rate is 15,965 Indonesian Rupia to $1. Nearby Malaysia is about 4 Ringgit to $1. The two economies are doing fine and Indonesians are doing Japa.
This matters significantly for a country like Nigeria, especially coming from a period when 1 dollar was worth less than 200 naira. While the actual numbers don't directly impact the economy, a lower numerical value for the naira could inspire confidence in Nigerians, encouraging them to appreciate their currency and work to improve rather than work against the economy.

Currently, most people are stocking up on dollars, thereby making things worse.

How does it make you feel about the naira when you need to pay almost 1 million naira for a motorcycle that you used to buy for below 200 thousand? In my opinion, the benefit is more psychological.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:13pm On Oct 27, 2024
Raider76:
This doesn't stop your currency falling further once you make the mistake of dollarizing your economy like we have done. A case in point is Ghana. They removed all the zeros and forced back to 1cedi=$1. Today they have slid down to 16cedi=$1 and counting. That is 16x fall in the currency.
You are right - but in the meantime, it will appear less inflated. Isn't it ironic when someone mentions one million naira as if it's a significant amount, yet it can barely buy an ordinary lady's motorcycle? shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:29pm On Oct 27, 2024
Ginalex:
Mr. Osita, I expect you to understand that the increase in salaries and wages (which most times happens once a year)is nothing compared to how much the prices of goods and services have increased. Heck what you bought for 1 naira today, has more than doubled in a month such that most have resort to buying less quantity for same price compared to what they could afford before while some others can't even afford even half of what they're used to because despite the so called "increase" in salaries, but in real terms have lesser purchasing power
Mrs. Gina, we all understand that, but I can assure you that people must eat - the essentials must be purchased. Previously, we had an over-reliance on imported goods, but that will now decrease.

I used to have friends who bought new phones every year; such wasteful spending will now reduce.

Most companies in Nigeria sell essential items, so they will continue generating revenue. It's the wasteful spending that will decline.

When considering buying that expensive imported lotion, you'll think twice - after all, we have our local palm kernel oil (ude aku grin), lol. shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:11pm On Oct 27, 2024
Besides, all these millions and thousands of naira are now overrated. As Soludo proposed during his tenure as CBN Governor, we should remove one zero from all denominations - ₦100 should become ₦10.

Similarly, when you hear ₦350,000, it should be ₦35,000, and a ₦5 million transaction should be ₦500,000.

This redenomination would help us better understand the real value of our currency. All these thousands we're throwing around are inflated figures. Under this system, the dollar would be worth approximately ₦160.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:01pm On Oct 27, 2024
Ginalex:
The bolded is funny sha... "...more cash volume from sales..." grin grin because "sales" manufacture themselves ba?? No be people wey dey go buy "lesser items" sales go come from? Abi na aliens grin grin... Abeg where you from the manufacture 10 and 15 trillion?? Na so e easy? grin grin we are talking people having lesser purchasing power and you're talking "more sales"?? Abi na me no understand economics again??😔 😔 😔 As per the backyard school wey I go
Let's be discussing with understanding. If the minimum wage was ₦30,000 and is now ₦70,000, consider how many federal and state government workers there are in Nigeria. Multiply those numbers and you'll see where these figures are coming from.

Now, everyone is talking about minimum wage, but do you realize some people's salaries will increase from ₦10 million to ₦14 million per year, while others will move from ₦4 million to ₦6 million, depending on their level?

I don't understand the arguments you and the other person are making. Even if they only add ₦1,000 to your salary, your purchasing power is now higher than before - at least you can afford an additional bottle of Hero beer. shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:57pm On Oct 26, 2024
Nigerian market Crashes (Recent times)

2008-2009 Crash
Triggered by: Global financial crisis + oil price collapse
*Banking sector crisis emerged
*Market lost about 70% of value
*Many margin loans defaulted
*Led to banking sector reforms


2014-2016 Decline
Caused by: Oil price crash
*FX crisis followed
*Foreign investors exited
*Multiple Naira devaluations
*Corporate earnings struggled


2020 COVID Crash
Swift but relatively short

Market recovered quickly due to:
*Low interest rates
*Local investor participation
*Strong corporate adaptability




Notable Sector-Specific Events
Banking Sector:
*2009 banking crisis showed how one sector can drag entire market
*Affected confidence in market for years
*Led to stricter regulations

Oil & Gas:
*Historical oil price crashes showed vulnerability
*2014/15 crash particularly significant
*Companies with dollar debt struggled most

Current Market Differences vs Past Crashes:
Companies generally have:
*Lower leverage levels
*Better corporate governance
*More diversified revenue streams
*Better risk management

Market Structure:
*More domestic institutional investors
*Better regulations
*Improved technology/trading systems
*More retail investor participation
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:53pm On Oct 26, 2024
Potential triggers that could cause a market crash:

Monetary Policy Shocks
Extreme interest rate hikes by CBN
Further dramatic Naira devaluation
Severe foreign exchange liquidity crisis
Restrictive monetary policies affecting market liquidity


Economic Issues
Severe recession
Rapid inflation acceleration beyond control
Major decline in oil prices (affecting FX earnings)
Significant drop in foreign reserves
Banking sector crisis


Political/Policy Risks
Dramatic policy shifts affecting business environment
Political instability
Major regulatory changes affecting key sectors
Hostile business legislation
Poor implementation of reforms


External Shocks
Global financial crisis
Major geopolitical events affecting trade
International commodity price collapse
Foreign investor exodus from emerging markets


Market-Specific Issues
Panic selling by major institutional investors
Discovery of significant corporate fraud
Collapse of a major market player
Crisis in systemically important sectors (like banking)
Market manipulation scandals


Domestic Business Environment
Corporate earnings collapse across board
Major corporate defaults
Severe infrastructure breakdown affecting business operations
Supply chain crisis
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:07pm On Oct 26, 2024
Alagbalaowo:
Please where is @Marketjjc and @Mankind001, it’s been a while reading their post

Respect 🙌 to every great persons keeping up this thread
Choiceguy:
When Oracle don abandon us,Agba should replace grin
Lol your face! Throughout this year and the previous one, Agba has been posting relentlessly that a bear market was imminent, claiming it was only a matter of months away. When he was making these posts, StreetInvestor, Mcy56, and I were his strongest opponents.

You want stocks to crash? Even my friend at the local market knows that can't happen. The cost of land has increased significantly, along with machinery and vehicles. Why would stocks, which represent proportional claims to companies with vast resources in land and machinery, fall in value without debt?

It's now almost the end of the year, and the predicted bear market hasn't materialized. Now the goalposts have been shifted to next year. It makes no sense that shares would fall while prices of other assets continue to rise. Maybe to the new Oracle... cheesy shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:44pm On Oct 25, 2024
D guy don use bear wahala pursue Ogg comot. grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:42pm On Oct 25, 2024
lipsrsealed
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:48pm On Oct 24, 2024
megawealth01:
grin
You dey highlight d major violence of d day, lol

Na tpain don increase violence o

But you too dey enjoy violence sha
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:12pm On Oct 24, 2024
KarlTom:
My final take on this:

- Have a minimum of three (3) years’ operating track record;
- Have a pre-tax profit from continuing operation of not less than N300million cumulatively for the last three (3) fiscal years and a minimum of N100 million in two (2) of these years;

Check the ff:
1. Listing requirements:
https://ngxgroup.com/exchange/raise-capital/listing-requirements/
2. NGX Rule Book:
https://ngxgroup.com/?wpdmdl=26399&ind=1605119440735

PS: DRL is not listing on its own so these rules do not apply absolutely

smiley
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:14pm On Oct 24, 2024
MadmaxX489:
undecided
Your points are strong, but the way you presented them seems to be a direct quote from someone else. Please double-check and repost to ensure it's your original post.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:07am On Oct 24, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
I never mentioned any stock in my statement.

If it is in the most recent report it is not hope
So, are you suggesting that if the new oil reservoir acquisition from Agip, which we saw in 2024, wasn't mentioned in the 2023 reports, then it should be hope driven investing? Or am I misinterpreting your point?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:46am On Oct 24, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
If you are not an insider you should invest based on available facts and figures not based on hope.

But if you must invest based on hope, don't have more than 20% of your fund invested based on hope
You are right about the 20%; you should not invest that much in any investment even when you think it is very good. Now, is the Oando reservoir of crude oil fake and based on hope? What is the worth of such a reservoir? What is its worth compared to debts owed? Can you answer these questions? If not, then why is your own opinion not based on hope?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:36am On Oct 24, 2024
yMcy56:
Lol.
The irony of it is that lots of accumulation has been ongoing in NB for the past few days/weeks now.....
In yesterday's market alone, over 37M units were crossed/picked up @N28
The volume accumulations has been much recently, maybe it's the parent company mopping or a new investor, we don't know yet.

NB: Not any form of advice anyway, just observation.
Why is it just accumulation and not distribution? People sold 1 billion worth of shares, and other people bought those same shares worth 1 billion. It's not clear who is right here - the sellers or the buyers. If you have reasons showing that the sellers were wrong, please share them.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:15pm On Oct 23, 2024
Seunn11:
My Aradel is negative 29% .
In House experts on Aradel, please come o. I want to know what is happening here!
Zenithbank is heading for ₦53. It's up to you to decide what to do. shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:58am On Oct 23, 2024
pluto09:
You still lost money to betting with all your ability in mathematical calculations grin grin
Yes, if Isaac Newton – the inventor of calculus, mechanics, and optics, among many other things – lost huge sums of money in the stock market (you can look it up), then who I be? cheesy shocked shocked shocked




Note: This is referencing Newton's famous losses in the South Sea Bubble of 1720, where he reportedly lost £20,000 (equivalent to millions in today's money), which led to his famous quote about being able to calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:33am On Oct 23, 2024
I read about someone who sold family land to fund his betting habit, and it made me think about why people gamble without understanding the mathematical concepts behind the offered odds. If you're familiar with the concept of expected value (what you would theoretically win per game if you were to play the same game millions of times), you would know that all games offered by betting sites have negative expected value.

Let me explain: each game is forecasted by a team of analysts and mathematicians who arrive at likely probabilities for the betting outcomes. This forecasting is ongoing even while the game is being played, which is why you can see the odds change throughout the game. The experts forecast the probabilities and then do something clever – they adjust the odds so that your expected value becomes negative before setting the final odds you see.

For example, if the odds of a coin toss getting heads is 50% (equivalent to odds of 2.0), they will adjust the odds to be equivalent to 55% (odds of 1.8 ). Instead of winning 1 naira whenever you win, you get 0.8 naira, effectively losing 0.2 on each game – and this assumes you're as good as their analysts.

The best way to approach betting, in my opinion, is to treat it like a lottery: bet nothing more than 100 naira on multiple games ticket and target big payouts, unless you believe you're better at analysis than their team of educated analysts.

Let me share my experience: before I went down the betting rabbit hole, I used to bet frequently, starting from virtual games with the martingale system to betting large amounts on single games. I lost over 2 million naira in the three years I was doing it around 2016 – money that I could have invested in the stock market instead. Some of my posts from those days are still on the Nairaland betting thread. embarassed shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:23pm On Oct 21, 2024
Willie2015:
https://nairametrics.com/2024/10/21/dangote-refinery-asks-court-to-void-import-licenses-of-nnpcl-matrix-and-four-others-in-n100-billion-case/

Dangote is on fire...
Here is a breakdown of the key points:

1. Dangote Refinery has filed a lawsuit against the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPC), Matrix Petroleum Services Limited, A. A. Rano Limited, and four other companies.

2. Dangote Refinery is seeking to void the import licenses of these companies, claiming they are importing refined petroleum products that Dangote Refinery is already producing and able to supply.

3. Dangote Refinery is seeking ₦100 billion in damages against the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) for allegedly continuing to issue import licenses to these companies.

4. Dangote Refinery claims the import licenses issued to these companies are crippling its business, as its products are left largely unpatronized.

5. Dangote Refinery is also seeking several other declarations and injunctions, including:
- Declaring that Dangote Refinery is exempt from all federal, state and local government taxes, levies and other rates as a Free Zone Enterprise.
- Preventing NMDPRA from imposing additional levies on Dangote Refinery.
- Ordering NMDPRA to withdraw the import licenses issued to the other companies.

6. The case is currently adjourned to January 20, 2025 to allow the parties to attempt to reach a settlement.

7. This lawsuit comes amid disputes between Dangote and regulatory authorities, as well as Dangote's previous announcement of willingness to sell his refinery to NNPC.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:53pm On Oct 21, 2024
Since fuel now costs 1,300, I decided to engage in micro trades to capture small weekly profits for fuel and groceries. Two stocks I targeted are both up over 9% for the day. Was I lucky? I targeted Daarcomm at 0.55 because it is far below book value, and I thought of getting in quickly and getting out. I planned to risk 30k to make roughly 60k with a small 140k investment. That one failed for now, as I could not get in.

The other stock is NNFM. That choice was purely statistical, being two standard deviations below its 200-day mean. My target entry was 30, but I got in at 31.40, risking 30k to make at least 60k with a small 140k investment. This NNFM investment seems to have made about 20%, just 28k (yet to deduct charges). Can it rise another 10% and then 10% more so I can exit with my target 60k profit? grin shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:50pm On Oct 20, 2024
zendi:
Transpower looks capable of drawing the attention of foreign investors soon, if they're not the ones attacking it already.
Is Transpower into distribution? (He get why i dey ask) If not, as a power generating company within a country with very low power output, I would be careful because competition is coming. Some foreign investors will prefer building their own systems from the ground up, which can disrupt Transcorp's perceived dominance. These are my thoughts. shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:28pm On Oct 19, 2024
Trading vs. Investing: Perspectives on Managing Losses

When faced with a losing position in the financial markets, individuals must decide whether to cut losses quickly or average down their position. This decision often hinges on whether one approaches the market as a trader or an investor. Let's explore both perspectives on the question: Is it better to take a 10% loss and exit a trade, or average down after a 50% drawdown?

The Trader's Perspective

Traders typically focus on short-term price movements and employ strict risk management strategies. From a trader's viewpoint, taking a 10% loss is often preferable for several reasons:

1. Risk Management: Exiting at a 10% loss limits downside risk and preserves capital.
2. Capital Preservation: A 10% loss leaves 90% of the initial capital intact for future opportunities.
3. Opportunity Cost: Exiting early frees up capital for potentially better trades.
4. Psychology: Taking a small loss can be easier psychologically than enduring a large drawdown.
5. Recovery Required: A 10% loss only requires an 11.1% gain to break even, compared to a 100% gain needed after a 50% loss.

Traders often adhere to the principle of "cut your losses short and let your profits run," which aligns with taking a smaller, defined loss rather than risking a larger drawdown.

The Investor's Perspective

Investors, on the other hand, typically have a longer time horizon and may view market fluctuations differently. From an investor's standpoint, averaging down after a 50% drawdown might be considered for these reasons:

1. Time Horizon: Long-term investors may view significant drawdowns as temporary setbacks in an overall upward trajectory.
2. Fundamental Analysis: If the underlying value and potential of the asset remain strong, averaging down could be seen as buying at a discount.
3. Dollar-Cost Averaging: Averaging down aligns with the principle of dollar-cost averaging, potentially lowering the overall cost basis over time.
4. Compounding Returns: Staying invested, even through drawdowns, can be crucial for benefiting from long-term compounding.
5. Market Cycles: Experienced investors understand that markets go through cycles, and significant drawdowns aren't uncommon in certain sectors.
6. Income Generation: For income-generating investments, averaging down can increase the overall income stream.
7. Tax Considerations: Realizing a loss might have unfavorable tax implications that long-term investors prefer to avoid.
8. Conviction and Research: Strong conviction based on thorough research might give investors confidence to hold through drawdowns or increase positions.

Factors Influencing the Decision

Regardless of approach, several factors should be considered when deciding between cutting losses or averaging down:

- Overall strategy and risk tolerance
- Specific characteristics of the asset
- Current market conditions
- Reason for the price movement (e.g., temporary volatility vs. fundamental change)
- Individual financial situation and goals

Conclusion

There's no one-size-fits-all answer to whether it's better to exit at a 10% loss or average down after a 50% drawdown. Traders often prefer to limit losses and maintain flexibility, while investors might see significant drawdowns as opportunities to strengthen their positions in fundamentally sound assets.

Ultimately, the decision should align with one's overall financial strategy, risk tolerance, and thorough analysis of the specific situation. Both approaches have their merits, and the best choice depends on individual circumstances and market context.

Copied...

shocked shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:25pm On Oct 18, 2024
yMcy56:
*Oga, if you've been following some of these Tony's TRANS stocks, you'll notice that they do well with price appreciation rather than using dividend payouts as yardsticks.
* I guess you'll agree that price appreciation too is part of this investment games especially for Traders, if not much better self.
* Follow the money. 😁
grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m):
lipsrsealed
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:39am On Oct 18, 2024
yMcy56:
- One of the reasons we were telling them to stop wasting pages of this thread on irelevances and nonse.nse posts, so that people can benefit much from the past quality and educative posts from the bosses, but they said na freedom of speech. undecided
Very true. We need to vote for you as NSEMPA mod; this place needs sanitizing. 😁🤡
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:52pm On Oct 17, 2024
Ginalex:
Omo! I can't wait for tomorrow to come. I really want to see the magic that's about to play out grin grin. Opportunity to jump out in the coming days
I am so happy. grin grin grin

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:40pm On Oct 17, 2024
Lol, some people are soliloquizing in the name of proving they're right. Go and get one more moniker. shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:33pm On Oct 17, 2024
Tpharell:
You are obviously late to the party. There was a lot of back and forth on this matter and that fellow kept grandstanding on the obviously wrong figures quoted by the thisday article. Don’t waste your energy trying to resurrect a dead horse
A fellow who doesn't know how to calculate annual returns or distinguish between drawdown and return over a period is talking about dead horses. You'd better make Google your friend. grin cheesy cheesy shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:53am On Oct 17, 2024
At 1.2 billion barrels in reserve, even if Oando achieves and maintains 100,000 barrels per day production, it will take roughly 33 years to exhaust it. In my opinion, it is cheap at the current price despite the latest $950 million loan (by the way, the cost of the new acquisition is $783 million; what did Oando do with the remaining $167 million?).

I read the latest publication of "Frankly Speaking" by Dele Sobowale in Vanguard, which claimed that a refinery is a bad investment for Dangote because crude oil is a dying business. That is very wrong. Even if the West manages to reduce dependence on refined fuel, they still need plastics, machine oils, and other byproducts of refineries. I also think that refined petrol and diesel are keeping plastics and other byproducts cheaper; once petrol is of no use, plastic and other products will become more expensive as they will be the main reason for the business.

On a side note, Africa will take much longer to adopt this new technology. I see Mack trucks and cars that are more than 20 years old; in fact, these make up more than 60% of vehicles on the road today. In conclusion, oil and gas refining will still be big business 30 years from now.

grin shocked shocked shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:10pm On Oct 16, 2024
Trojan8:
Alright.
Yeah
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:53pm On Oct 16, 2024
All this double monikers, u don use another one come. Lol

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