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Ositadima1's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:58am On Dec 05, 2023
jaybee3:
An outlier can be classed as an indicator but it's better to overlay it with other indicators to negate effect of false positives.

Questions:
Is the volume an absolute transaction figure (irrespective of Buy/Sell volumes)
Even if you strip out the sell volumes, it's hard to ascribe the activity to insider trading in real term. (I'm not suggesting you are inferring that though)
Question one:
If you check the Morgan Capital panel, you'll see the number of transactions and their corresponding prices. This information is incredibly valuable, but unfortunately, it can't be saved for further analysis. We can only eyeball it as it prints. That's where VWAP comes in. Morgan calculates it by multiplying each transaction price by its volume (amount traded). At the end of the day, they sum these up and divide by the total volume. This gives us a clear picture of where most of the trading activity occurred. Imagine five trades at $20, three at $21, and ten at $25. It's obvious that $25 will heavily influence the average because it has the most data points.

Question two:
It's impossible to know for sure what insiders are doing, but when we see high volumes at high prices, it could indicate a positive reason, or perhaps not.

I also want to acknowledge that my English isn't good (night school grad here!). I'm using a grammar filter to improve my writing.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:27am On Dec 05, 2023
DrAwo:
This VWAP thing you mentioned reminds me of Oga Meshpips... He used it to identify NAHCO as a winner many months ahead of fundamental analysis highlighted it to many. It was still selling below N5 when he strongly recommended it.

I hope he is doing great wherever he is...
I'm unfamiliar with Oga Meshpips VAP. However, VWAP is a widely used indicator easily accessible on most charting platforms and software. It's a straightforward calculation that averages prices weighted by volume, typically over a day. VWAP essentially indicates the price level where most of the trading activity occurred, simply an average price. grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 8:45am On Dec 05, 2023
BullBearMkt:
NEIMETH may be targeting above 2.30; UCAP...uuhmmm very high, may or may not need some pullback! FA needed there.
grin grin grin grin grin
Before delving into the analysis, I'd like to provide some context for those unfamiliar with VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price). I've considered ways to scrape Morgan Capital's intraday data, but their platform's design poses challenges. Algorithmic processing of this data would be immensely beneficial, eliminating the need for constant monitoring like Mcy56's round-the-clock vigil. grin grin cheesy

Fortunately, Morgan Capital provides VWAP data in their daily price reports. VWAP serves as a proxy for more granular data, offering a price weighted by volume. The accompanying Dataframe displays closing price, VWAP, percentage variation, and volume side by side.

While I'm still piecing together the puzzle, I observe that a significant portion of the 8.4 million units were acquired at 1.82, the highest volume in the past 15 days. The next substantial volume occurred at 2.42, with the majority of the 6.4 million units purchased at that price on that day.

As always, my conclusion is that aiming for or below 2 might be a worthwhile strategy, and surpassing 2.42 is highly likely over time, as those MOFOs buying at 2.42 may possess insights they haven't shared. grin grin embarassed

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:36am On Dec 04, 2023
Heishere:
Still a bit confused boss. Why are you multiplying the EPS by 16?
To estimate annual EPS for his growth formula, he simply takes the EPS of the best quarter and multiplies it by four. Then, he multiplies that number by another four to account for his projected growth. I'm just explaining this approach, not endorsing it as right or wrong.

grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:00am On Dec 04, 2023
Agbalowomeri:
And you didn't see when it sold for N10 in 2020?😂
That was capitulation, plain and simple!

"Investors, drowning in fear and pessimism, threw in the towel and sold their holdings en masse.

But amidst the chaos, opportunity whispers to the contrarian investor. They see this capitulation event as a buying signal, believing the extreme negativity has already factored in most of the bad news. However, pinpointing the precise moment is a delicate dance, as the market might still have a few swan dives before hitting rock bottom."
cheesy

Copied...
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:27am On Dec 04, 2023
Redoil:
and when it become profitable they will then buy out the minority shell holders for pea nuts Save the screenshot and the date. If God wills it, we will discuss this further in 2025
They say, "a trader eats what he kills" grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:39am On Dec 02, 2023
emmanuelewumi:
Thank you.


Chika Mordi used to be the chairman of United Capital
This information is from four years ago. Also, the advertisement banners on Nairametrics are obstructing the page.

https://nairametrics.com/2019/06/19/new-facts-behind-the-acquisition-of-telluria-limited-by-ellah-lakes-emerge/
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:11am On Dec 02, 2023
Harvestock01:
Have you factored in the recently completed Rights Issue, into the equation?
Save the screenshot and the date. If God wills it, we will discuss this further in 2025. grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:10am On Dec 02, 2023
Based on current plans and progress, Ellah Lakes Plc is anticipated to commence revenue generation in 2025. Their 2,400 hectare oil palm plantation in Edo State is projected to commence oil production in 2024, and their cassava processing plant is also anticipated to be operational in 2024. Upon the operationalization of these facilities, Ellah Lakes will be able to begin selling their products and generating revenue.

Its total equity stands at 19.9 billion naira as at the end of July 2023, which has been increasing, primarily owing to land appreciation. The group has been incurring an average of 900 million naira annually to run the farm and business. I estimate that they will expend a total of approximately 2 billion naira before commencing revenue generation in 2025. This amount will be covered by land appreciation.

ELLAHLAKES possesses 5,000 hectares of land, with 2,100 hectares currently planted, while OKOMUOIL owns over 32,000 hectares of land, with 19,000 hectares planted.

Below is a simplified back-of-the-envelope calculation of what may be anticipated from ELLAHLAKES in 2025:

*Currently, OKOMUOIL generates 16.2 billion naira in profit after tax (PAT) from their 19,000 hectares.

*I project ELLAHLAKES to generate 1.8 billion naira in PAT from their 2,100 hectares proportionally.

*Assuming reduced efficiency due to ELLAHLAKES being relatively new, 0.8 x 1.8 billion naira = 1.44 billion naira in PAT.

*Earnings per share (EPS) of 1.44 billion naira / 2 = 0.72 naira.

*At the current price of 3.13 naira per share, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio should be 4.34 compared to 14 for OKOMUOIL.

*Estimated dividend yield of (0.72 naira / 3.13 naira) x .8 = 16%.

Conclusion: If all goes well, purchasing it now or at a lower price, if feasible, would be akin to purchasing UCAP in 2020, lol.

Additionally, I have observed increased interest in the stock in the last 3 months. A stock that previously traded below 10 million naira in a month is now trading 300 million and 190 million naira monthly.

grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:23pm On Dec 01, 2023
700k in the bag, I told you say na sure. I don dey rub shoulders with Oga loco o small small o. Be like say nah dis kind package I go dey run hense fourth. Omo, nah 3 bottles I just dey use dey step down with friends. grin grin grin

Back to my hole, I no need to shout o. No need sef.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:37am On Nov 30, 2023
ositadima1:
At present, Mecure has stocks worth 3.5 million naira (320,853 units) available. The manipulation has not yet ceased, you can purchase the stocks now and be assured of a minimum return of 700,000 naira by the middle of next week. grin grin grin
Half of the 700k is done. By tomorrow, the entire 700,000 will be finished and ready for collection. As I stated with absolute confidence, the 700k is guaranteed. grin grin grin

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:04pm On Nov 29, 2023
naturalflow:
I never wanted to be rich,I just wanted to be independent- charlie munger!RIP to a legend.He was 99 years old.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m):
lipsrsealed

My attempt at MH. grin grin cheesy

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:40am On Nov 29, 2023
yMcy56:
Heavy cross deals in GTB.....
1.66Bn staked on it as at now...

This NSLTECH, hhmmm....hope those buying here did their homework sha.....
I no wan say anything o.

MECURE: They don push am to their desired price, na to dry cash out on top retailers remain.... smiley
At present, Mecure has stocks worth 3.5 million naira (320,853 units) available. The manipulation has not yet ceased, you can purchase the stocks now and be assured of a minimum return of 700,000 naira by the middle of next week. grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:35pm On Nov 28, 2023
Locotrader:
You are on point my brother.

My own take is since the case is adjourn till February, oando share price should rise above #16 if the minority shareholders are serious .
Are you not a minority shareholder? You better start buying at the highest of the day. grin grin grin
Foreign Affairs › Re: North Korea Moves Heavy Weapons To Border With South. by ositadima1(m): 9:22am On Nov 28, 2023
AishaDant:
Meanwhile, their people are starving and years and years behind the whole world.

Even Nigeria, is still better than North Korea. Smh
The ease with which opinions can be formed on public forums today is alarming. People are often too quick to accept whatever they are told without any critical thinking or analysis. It is a shame that such a lack of intellectual rigor is prevalent in our society.

Your comparison of Nigeria to North Korea is flawed. Nigeria, despite not being under sanctions, has failed to provide basic necessities like electricity to its citizens and is incapable of manufacturing sophisticated goods.

Creating nuclear weapons is an incredibly complex and demanding undertaking, and it's remarkable that North Korea has achieved this capability despite the many sanctions. While Western media have biases, they have acknowledged North Korea's nuclear capabilities.
Foreign Affairs › Re: North Korea Moves Heavy Weapons To Border With South. by ositadima1(m): 8:59am On Nov 28, 2023
Shoodboi:
It's because that's what they want you to hear. Is it possible for an economically backward country with poor people to build rockets?

A country that can't manufacture cars is building satellites? Where is that done?

As for this news, it is an attempt by the west to paint North Korea as the aggressor.

In 2018, both Koreas signed agreements to reduce the number of troops and surveillance flights around the border.

South Korea breached that agreement last week when it moved troops to the border and resumed surveillance flights.

North Korea is responding by returning its troops to the border and now, western media is trying trying make it seem as if it's the aggressor.
I have been attempting to locate news sources that are independent, but my efforts have been unsuccessful. All news that is produced by Western media outlets is filtered and infused with propaganda. Like as high as 90%.
Foreign Affairs › Re: North Korea Moves Heavy Weapons To Border With South. by ositadima1(m): 8:53am On Nov 28, 2023
victory36:
This is the result of oversanctioning people. The UN has used all the chesspieces against North Korea, so north Korea knows it has nothing to lose if it breaks the rules. Apart from war, there is nothing anyone can do on this matter and war will most likely be a proxy war between us/NATO and china/Russia as seen in Ukraine.
It is ironic that the United States has military bases all over the world while simultaneously opposing the presence of foreign military bases on its own continent. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the Soviet Union had a military base in Cuba, the United States went to great lengths to destabilize and infiltrate the country. It would be a fitting turn of events if China or Russia were to establish a military base in South America, close to the United States, and deploy heavy artillery.
Foreign Affairs › Re: North Korea Moves Heavy Weapons To Border With South. by ositadima1(m): 8:44am On Nov 28, 2023
rentAcock:
Paper tigers make the most threats and try too hard to portray themselves as ferocious but it's all a facade. Look at how Russia tricked the world into thinking it is a superpower, yet they cannot defeat small Ukraine. Paper tigers love to hide behind the threats of nuclear weapons, but seriously, with all the mishaps and blunders we've seen from these guys, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that none of their nukes are operational, they might actually annihilate themselves.
Lol, you are so ignorant. USA and his allies that are strong why haven't they attacked Russia and rescue Ukraine as usual, if it was the Middle east or Africa they would have started campaigning.
TV/Movies › Re: What Series Are You Watching Now? Part 2 by ositadima1(m): 9:57am On Nov 27, 2023
Baddestguyp:
I'm sure Reiner would like to have a sniff grin grin
Sex tape

TV/Movies › Re: What Series Are You Watching Now? Part 2 by ositadima1(m): 9:46am On Nov 27, 2023
Baddestguyp:
I just feel like looking for trouble...nothing else...

Don't take it to seriously grin
TV/Movies › Re: What Series Are You Watching Now? Part 2 by ositadima1(m): 9:45am On Nov 27, 2023
Baddestguyp:
don't do this to "mommy Mikasa" grin grin
What they do in the shadows grin

TV/Movies › Re: What Series Are You Watching Now? Part 2 by ositadima1(m): 9:39am On Nov 27, 2023
Baddestguyp:
One of the Greatest stories of all time

"Goodbye to the boy who sought freedom"

grin grin grin
Is that Mikasa Ackerman?

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:22pm On Nov 26, 2023
BullBearMkt:
...thank you for raising these pertinent questions!

On NSE we presently have limited "FREE" data, a request placed to NSE data centre some 5 years ago for old data that I should buy at a very exorbitant price (over N2m at that time). Which means I must have a means to recoup my money if I want to share it with a 3rd party!

Having said that, the banking sector's role in our economy cannot be overemphasised. While it is a significant factor, it is not solely responsible for our economy's growth. Therefore, adjustments in monetary policies, while critical, are part of a broader suite of reforms required to revitalize our economy. These policy shifts are anticipated to have a long-term effect, and as history suggests, the impact on the NSE may not be immediate but gradual, unfolding over several years as seen in the aftermath of the reforms initiated by Governors Soludo and Lamido - while Soludo's policy affected the economy within 1 year, it took 3 years for the impact to reflect on NSE market in the case of Lamido's.

The forthcoming reforms under Cardoso may very well set a positive outlook for the NSE, but they will be one of many factors that contribute to our nation's economic resurgence....
grin grin grin grin grin
I don't mean to come across as overly critical, but what are the underlying issues with the current banking system? I understand that the situation was dire before Soludo's tenure, with a complete lack of confidence in the sector. It's logical that reforms would lead to significant efficiency improvements.

I understand your point about the limited and unnecessarily expensive access to data. I was speaking from a statistical significance standpoint. In any case, I'm not an expert in this field.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:21pm On Nov 26, 2023
BullBearMkt:
Nigerian Stock Exchange Poised for Growth Amid Cardoso's Banking Reforms wink
The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) is strategically positioned to benefit from the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) reform policies under Governor Olayemi Cardoso. With a commitment to ensuring price stability and financial system stability, the CBN's new direction could stimulate significant growth in the NSE​​.

A retrospective glance at the NSE's performance reveals a pattern of robust growth following comprehensive banking reforms. The 2005 reforms spearheaded by then Governor Charles Soludo catalysed a remarkable surge in market index points, propelling the NSE until the 2008 global economic downturn.

In the wake of the financial crisis, Sanusi Lamido's tenure, from 2009, introduced reforms that fortified the banking sector, thereby setting a new support level that has sustained the NSE till present day. This era of restructuring stabilized the market.

Drawing parallels from these precedents, Governor Cardoso's proposed policies are anticipated to stimulate similar, if not greater, market responses. The successful implementation of these reforms could lead to a long-term bullish outlook for the NSE All Share Index, potentially ushering in record-breaking highs. Additionally, the mandate to increase the capital base of Nigerian banks is a move that could strengthen the financial sector, providing a robust platform for the NSE to service the expanding $1tn economy​​.

Conclusion
Governor Cardoso's policies are aimed at addressing the economic challenges of rising inflation and a weakening currency​​. As these reforms take shape, the Nigerian Stock Exchange is likely to see a positive impact, potentially mirroring the upward trends observed during previous periods of significant banking reforms.

https://invst.ly/12ewny

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS
grin grin grin grin grin
Your write-up is well-structured and informative. However, I have a few concerns that need to be addressed.

The amount of data you've presented is insufficient to support the conclusions you've drawn. Analyzing only two or three CBN tenures is not enough to establish a strong correlation. Moreover, I hope you agree with the adage that correlation does not imply causation. While you've correctly pointed out that these governors' policies have improved system efficiency, it's important to consider the limits of further efficiency gains and their impact on the overall economy.

Is the banking system the primary factor responsible for our current economic challenges? Can a mere adjustment in monetary policies be enough to reverse our fortunes this time?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:54pm On Nov 24, 2023
Agents of chaos have infiltrated our thread. This once peaceful place is slowly transforming into a mirror image of Gaza. Otilo!

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:54pm On Nov 24, 2023
lipsrsealed
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:53pm On Nov 24, 2023
essentialone:
Meanwhile, there are renewed interests in NB and Ecobank.

Won't be surprised to see a Bull Kiss on them soon...
Yes, I'm witnessing the same pattern. I anticipate a breakout above the support level around 48 before the end of January. This could lead to a minimum ROI of 20%. However, I hope it doesn't dip to 32 before the breakout occurs.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:40pm On Nov 24, 2023
KayOn1:
Wait till market correction shows. How do you justify Neimeth doing over 30% within a week with ... if not TA.
Reason I can't thank BullBearMkt enough to opening my eyes to what was missing component in my trade setup.
We must also consider the impact of rampant inflation and currency depreciation.

Earlier this year, a bottle of plastic coke cost around 100 to 150, but now it's 250. Similarly, a bottle of Hero that used to cost 250 to 300 is now 500. Given these substantial increases in everyday goods, why shouldn't stocks also reprice?

While dividends may increase, the overall purchasing power of those dividends will be diminished. A phone that cost 115,000 early last year is now selling for 220,000 to 250,000. Yet, there's an expectation for stocks to remain or go back at their levels from five years ago.

Some predict a bear market, but only time will tell.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:36pm On Nov 23, 2023
Ginalex:
Ah! Mcy56 is one of the people I look up to and respect a lot on this thread. She has been so generous to newbies like us and we only pray that she never lacks helpers as she has been giving freely without expecting anything in return (not that it's a bad thing to charge a fee for the treasures being dropped here).
Reminds me of the interesting tale of "Mrs. Watanabe".

During the economic downturn of the 1990s, Japanese housewives took to forex trading to provide for their families. It's truly an inspiring documentary.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m):
emmanuelewumi:
You are a strong woman.

My average price is less than N20.

I sold half between N62 and N63 and invested in Fixed Income at an average yield of 17%.

I hope to borrow against the Fixed Income Investment to buy more of Dangote Sugar next week or first week of December 2023
Ginalex is a wife material, but Mcy56 too know oo, you and she will mostly engage in arguments over trivial matters oo. shocked grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:54pm On Nov 23, 2023
sboga:
d main news from d day ...the quick ones loaded in the am

newbies - learn to connect d dots....never expect dis ppl here to help you.. dem go chop yo money thyy these illiquid stocks dem to push very well ontop your head


Tinubu Approves Sale Of More Oil And Gas Fields -- connect the dots...no need to thank you later cause i dont GAF if u do or dont
YoungBuffet, you seem to change aliases like boxers. Your two significant predictions have yet to materialize. Recall how certain you were that crude oil and the Ngx would plummet. Perhaps you have reinvented yourself under this new persona. grin grin grin cheesy

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