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Ositadima1's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:34pm On Jan 31, 2024
BullBearMkt:
...turn your attention to long term and you'll see opportunities. GTCO that you're comparing it with Transcorp was bearish in 2022 on long-term.
grin grin grin grin grin
I think I may have been misunderstood due to my erratic thinking.

I was not comparing GTCO to Transcorp directly. Rather, I was pointing out the efficient way in which GTCO was sold off in 2022 by an entity, compared to how Zenith, Transcorp and other valuable stocks are currently being dumped.

The entity behind the ongoing dumping stands to lose some capital given the approach, especially for Zenith which had been built up slowly over time.

My theory is that the faster you move a price up or down by exerting demand/supply pressure, the lower the volume involved.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:01pm On Jan 31, 2024
Locotrader:
Grave robber.I remember those days we use to look for bottom.

No bottom this time because we are not in bears.You will suddenly see a reversal any moment
It depends on who is doing the selling. It may be the trading department of some institution who may have been ordered by management to reduce exposure to certain stocks. In that case, we may see prices go even more into the red until they have met their target.

Then, after that, we can continue our upward journey, probably back to the year's highs. All these pension funds etc., those guys don't send anybody o. angry
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:36pm On Jan 31, 2024
It looks more like institutions dumping their stocks, probably trying to reduce exposure or something similar. If it were retailers dumping, it wouldn't look like this. The rate at which they are withdrawing their money will surely result in losses for them. Stocks like Zenith took a slow ascent to go up in price. The way they are crashing now, if it continues, will quickly take them back to pre-bull run prices. This is not clever in my opinion. I can remember how GTCO was distributed in 2022 - the entity selling then was dumping it slowly over time.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:22pm On Jan 30, 2024
Dupeodus:
Russian crude is heavy crude. The closest to the Nigerian light crude that the Dangote Refinery is built for is American crude.
That's not entirely accurate. Russia actually has several grades of crude oil, including Urals Blend (medium-sour), Siberian Light (light), and even heavier crudes, depending on the location. Given Russia's vast geography, the oil properties can vary widely.

Then, there are closer alternatives for light crude, such as Angola, Libya and even Congo. So Dangote Refinery potentially looking to the US for oil seems to be more of a political decision rather than one based on necessity or convenience. undecided
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:15pm On Jan 30, 2024
nosa2:
Please do you know any details of how dangote is going to sell his refined products?

I'm particularly interested in what currency he is selling in
Since Dangote Refinery is planning to buy crude oil from the USA, the most likely currency it will use to sell its refined oil products is the Dollar to reduce foreign exchange risk. undecided
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:56pm On Jan 30, 2024
Olaide1295:
Look at the map. Russia is too far and tankers will have to sail the cape of good hope. Logistics is too much.
One thing to be sure of. When private capital (not government o) makes decisions, they’ve considered all options and will likely chose what’s best for their business.
Ships from Russia do not have to pass the Cape of Good Hope. Neither is Russia the only better choice. Angola is there, and there are many other better choices in the African continent alone.

And yes, Dangote Refinery will choose what is best for their business. That does not mean it is the best choice or best for the Nigerian people.

What logistics? I thought logistics were taken care of by the shipping company. Anyway, I am not an expert in this stuff, just expressing my common sense analysis.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:41am On Jan 30, 2024
BullBearMkt:
You've introduced another aspect into the discussion, which is valid. Nevertheless, the cost of $5/barrel, up to a maximum of 3 million barrels on a vessel, is substantial. That apart, ensuring an uninterrupted supply of crude oil is of equal significance
grin grin grin grin grin
I think politics is also a consideration in the choice of who to buy from. Why buy from the USA when the USA's WTI is not the cheapest? I think Russian crude is cheaper than the USA's WTI. There are other better sources too.

I am happy that soon there will be competition. By then, the market will be forced to overcome all these politics at the expense of the masses. undecided
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:19am On Jan 30, 2024
Frangel:
They can. However, my challenge is looking at their cash position of less than N1bn at YE, can they afford to pay dividend of about N5b without borrowing or shifting the payment date later in the year when they would have generated good cash from operations. They made some significant/strategic cash investments in 2023. Impressive results by the way.
You're right, I was trying to convey the same point. After accounting for depreciation and amortization (which I found under administrative expenses), the free cash flow comes out to around 796 million naira. That translates to approximately 40 kobo per share. undecided
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:56am On Jan 30, 2024
Frangel:
They are deducted. Usually mapped under admin expenses. As a standard, you can't arrived at your operating profit without providing for depreciation and amortization.
Okay, thanks. I will try and see if I can spot them in the statement breakdown. That is probably why my free cash flow calculation is also off.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:44am On Jan 30, 2024
Am I missing something?

Based on my calculations of Free Cash Flow using: Net profit + depreciation/amortization - changes in working capital (current assets - current liabilities - cash) - capital expenditures, I got some numbers.

NAHCO's FCF is way lower than their PAT, and the FCF per share is even less than their previous dividend payout. Something seems awfully wrong here, but NNFM looks much better in comparison.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:07am On Jan 30, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
With EPS of N3.11k, Nahco should be able to pay a dividend of N2.50k
I noticed that the income statements in these unaudited financial statements are lacking deductions for amortization and depreciation. I think the final audited EPS will be lower once these non-cash expenses are included.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by ositadima1(m): 6:29pm On Jan 29, 2024
"There are many FX denominated funds one can buy even from/via Nigerian banks."

Only accredited investors can participate in private placements of foreign bonds offered by investment houses or banks.

The foreign currency denominated investments provided in these banks are mostly repackaged Eurobonds, though I'm open to correction on that.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:54pm On Jan 29, 2024
Na to buy 7 crates of hero keep for house o, before the thing go up more. cheesy
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:50pm On Jan 29, 2024
We should brace ourselves, prices of goods and services will still go up. It is better to stock up on things now because more inflation is coming. By the way, Hero beer is now 600 naira a bottle, a 20% increase just in January. grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:44pm On Jan 29, 2024
Cadbury may present a good deal if the share price falls far enough, like Eterna that tumbled down only to recover later. Cadbury has incurred considerable exchange losses, mostly due to import finance facilities (loans). If Cadbury's goods have a competitive advantage, the company should be able to pass on these higher costs to consumers over time. wink
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by ositadima1(m): 7:57pm On Jan 28, 2024
Tranquility2345:
What makes you think his fx investments are Nigerian bonds denominated in dollars (these are called Eurobonds by the way)? And who told you that you have to go physically to the USA to invest in their bonds? I swear I feel like giving you a very hot konk on that your yellow bald head angry
I have said what I have said. If your dollar investments are Nigerian bonds denominated in foreign currencies, don't feel too cocky because if the Nigerian economy goes bad, default is very likely. However, if you diversified in foreign markets, then good for you.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by ositadima1(m): 3:57pm On Jan 28, 2024
lipsrsealed
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by ositadima1(m): 3:44pm On Jan 28, 2024
Tranquility2345:
I think Skydiver made solid points from his own point of view about the situation. The key lesson he was passing across is the power of diversification when it comes to the currency of savings and investments…
You think investing in Nigerian bonds denominated in USD and foreign currencies is a solid diversification strategy. By the time the naira gets to 5000, how sure are you that Nigeria will not default on its bond payments?

The truth is that these bonds are still correlated with the naira, and if Nigeria's economy goes to ruin, so will these bonds.

To truly diversify, you would have to buy bonds in foreign countries, like physically go to the USA and buy their bonds.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by ositadima1(m): 3:32pm On Jan 28, 2024
RayRay06677:
Unnecessary attacks

Some gets motivations from stories like that.



We can not convert all our money to dollars

Allow naira to breath


Age, inheritance policy and volume of naira you hold can be a reason you shouldn't bother about dollars.
I am not really attacking, just trying to be reasonable. This is not the way to be a role model. There is no moral to the long letter.

I can simply summarize the whole thing in a few words - "I am very comfortable and I will still be even if Nigeria burns".

Now, compare that with what you get from mature individuals like Pa Emma. He will give you roadmaps and actionable pointers.

I can only say be wary of old people who talk like teenagers.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by ositadima1(m): 2:46pm On Jan 28, 2024
skydiver01:
I am unperturbed. I made the FGN Naira bond investments with the sole objective of the coupons meeting my expenses in Nigeria which continues to hold true today even while the Naira has continued to fall. This is the reason I also made majority of my portfolio in FX investments. My two kids are out of university and in gainful employment. I have no rent to pay in Nigeria because my properties are fully paid for and I am paid rent on one of them. I will give you a simple example (though I have many) of why I am unperturbed. I live a simple life though I do enjoy myself with friends. However, in the last 10 years I have been unable to spend more than N6m a year on expenses. So, even if the Naira falls to N5,000 to the US Dollar, it simply cannot bother me in the least. This is why it is important to have a diversified portfolio. It is meant to balance out risks and continue to grow. I assure you I made a good investment in the FGN Naira bonds because it met and continues to meet my needs and objectives. My Naira investments were never based on an expectation of the Naira appreciating and I am not also interested in converting any of my FX investment's coupons and dividends into Naira - those are for my expenses when I am not in the country holidaying. I hope the above helps put into perspective your assumption of how I feel wink
Okay, you are so fortunate that everything is working out for you. You are living your best life. So, what should we do now?

Is enjoying your wealth not bringing you enough happiness that you need to write about it for emotional boosts?

What exactly is the message in this long letter - buy, sell or hold?
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by ositadima1(m): 2:34pm On Jan 28, 2024
TotoNaRubber:
Well as you can't win it all. With knowledge on your side, you were able to diversify.

Now, imagine how over 200 million Nigerians without this knowledge and spare cash to buy dollar have been thrown into extreme misfortune.

Most of the rich knew about this and they multiplied their worth easily. So long as you live in Nigeria whether you earn in Pounds or Malaysian ringgit the devaluation affects you but then the worst set of people are thecones who have only Naira as currency.
We have been hearing about investing in dollars for over ten years now.

Every so often, someone will come and do the calculations of how much you would have lost if you held naira instead of dollars. Don't you get tired ni?

I believe you have already converted all your money to dollars (audio, maybe...), which is good. Now rest, haba. I would even suggest sending your spouse out there to earn dollars.

I thought this thread was about investing in Nigerian denominated securities.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:08am On Jan 27, 2024
Zagee:
Numbers, numbers.

I have noticed that these FMCGs are having more revenue than associated with the "brokeness" on the street. Abi everyone spent everything on food??

Developing impressive results looking at Q on Q.
I wonder what they'll do with honeywell flour(though not an amazing result) but looking to ride it(TA-wise) and gut feeling throughout q1. 10% down already.

Market will justify every result. Lookout! grin
I think I have mentioned before that we are going to see bigger revenue, especially for essential products making companies, which may translate into higher profits. It is not hard to see when you go out to buy provisions and supplies - you should have noticed by now that most prices have gone up. In some cases prices have doubled, while in other cases companies have reduced the content. Look at my favorite biscuit from years past - the fish biscuit (50 naira per pack). It is now half its original size. angry angry embarassed embarassed

When some people come here and tell me stock prices will fall, as usual I get seriously confused. Is it not the same market that they and I enter to buy things, or are they shopping somewhere with discounted prices? Ok nah. undecided
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:01pm On Jan 24, 2024
grin grin grin

Locotrader:
No bears until those ones also feel the bull.
It must go round.
It is time for Nigerians to build good houses, buy cars, change cars, buy land, marry one wife, invest in church projects etc......

Not only our oldies who dislike what is happening sabi do real estates,and in love with plenty women.........
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:56pm On Jan 23, 2024
cheesy
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:49pm On Jan 23, 2024
Agbalowomeri:
What makes you think it will resume 'upward journey'? grin
What makes you think it won't?

A lot of stocks that did 2x or more had no reason to do so, not backed by fundamentals. But you see, those value stocks will bounce back. Worst case they will remain flat. The days of Zenith at 25 are over. grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:51am On Jan 23, 2024
rmx:
What is the going rate for similar properties in that area or Did he sell below that ?
Haba, you stated that he had purchased the property at a high price. Then, he informed that your understanding was incorrect. Now, you are inquiring whether he sold the property at a lower cost. Please recall that the individual in question did not directly participate in the transaction.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:40am On Jan 23, 2024
rmx:
Naira from around 800 to 1400 now , that’s a loss of 75% since may/june , I hope my maths is correct

Returns need to be above 75% for investment in the nse to be ahead , I think most stocks have given that so far , but will it continue ?
Beating devaluation and inflation in Nigeria is an unending battle with naira assets grin grin grin
grin grin grin

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:05pm On Jan 22, 2024
masseratti:
i don't understand this your quote.
grin,

I wanted to use your experience to make a point on a different but related thread, but then I felt I should quote you so it doesn't look like I stole your post.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 8:41pm On Jan 22, 2024
Locotrader:
ASI wey go reach 120.
We are expecting Dangote Refinery to list soon.
Other big companies are also joining the league.

Dangote cement wey ote just increase stake can only trade flat or lose just 10 or 20℅.

I for don carry my kaya run if danger in sight.
I dey come more 50% to the market once my money mature only in the Brewery sector.I am sighting bull there.Other sectors might have peak or close to peak but won't crash.
masseratti:
... I know someone who paid 200 million naira when dollars was 320 naira to 1$,that's $555k, now he sold the same house for 300million naira convert it back to dollars as at the rate he sold it last month duration 5 years at today's rate of 1300 naira the guy made $230k that's a loss of $270k that's massive and same thing with stocks ...
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:58pm On Jan 22, 2024
Agbalowomeri:
Eku bull market o
DangCement still dey do cosmetics for ASI
Dem go soon comot the wedge
Eni ori yo.....

Anyway don't expect a sudden crash, it will be a slow and steady ride to Golgotha grin
The market has already crashed (in real value) as the Naira has lost more than 50% of its value.

You will be very disappointed, brother. You had better position yourself now in value stocks or US dollars, as the Naira is going to fall further before year end.

Your Elliott Wave analysis will disappoint you. I don't talk finish. wink
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:04pm On Jan 21, 2024
LILBIMS:
Good evening , pls what’s the meaning of OS ?
Outstanding Shares, all the outstanding shares of a stock that can lay claim on the profit after tax (PAT). Hence, earnings per share (EPS) is calculated as PAT divided by the number of outstanding shares (OS). cheesy
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:55pm On Jan 21, 2024
MeezPat:
This is a bit wrong though for bonds....Your capital can fall or rise in relation to interest rates...If newer bonds are issued at higher yields, your capital falls if you demand an immediate sale, If issued at lesser yields than you bought, your capital increases.Investor is only immune if he waits till maturity of which, there are still inflationary pressures
grin grin grin

My sister, I was only trying to economize space and mention the most important parts. If I were to explain everything in full, posts would look more like final year thesis.

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