₦airaland Forum

vacanci:
i am confused about this ur chart.

september this year alone did about 187M units in volume around closing prices of 54 and 55.

i cannot see anything like this on your chart

Date Price Open High Low Vol. Change %
10/01/2023 63.00 54.00 66.85 53.50 1.57M +16.88%
09/01/2023 53.90 55.00 71.50 51.65 187.65M -2.00%
08/01/2023 55.00 26.90 63.15 24.40 223.67M +103.70%
07/01/2023 27.00 25.00 32.80 24.95 210.18M +8.00%

You summed volumes for each month.

Go learn how to read a histogram .

Let me explain: the volume is what it is between the intervals.

essentialone:
Dangote Sugar, ETranzact, MRS, and NASCON, still a good Buy at current price?

For Dangote Sugar, I attempted to analyze it using simple statistics and some supply and demand logic. If you look at the histogram (covering 2022 to date) that I pasted below, you will see that the bulk of the volume is in the 12-23 range. This simply means that most of the stock was bought in this range. I hope you see the problem.

A price of 65 makes it a nice three-bagger for those who have been riding it since then. I agree that many are in it for the long term, but many are also in it for several other reasons, such as profit-taking, store of value, and temporary banking. Look at prices above 50. There is not much there in comparison. Breaking out of 70 may not be that easy, and 55 may still be possible.

Remember what someone influential said: "Na statistics we go chop."

Ranked: The Fastest Growing Economies In 2024

Why is Nigeria not on this list, but Niger is?

After the IMF insisted that removing all subsidies would set Nigeria on the growth path, it went ahead to rank Niger and other African countries over Nigeria. Good lesson here: never act solely on recommendations; do your due diligence.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-fastest-growing-economies-in-2024/

PETERiCHY:
After 6months WAIT for GENERATIONAL low

If World War III starts now, some people will rush to argue that their Oracle foresaw the whole thing, lol.

The market is complex, and just looking at foreign charts to decipher what is likely to happen in Nigeria is not enough without analyzing the local climate.

It's been more than six months, and the dollar still hasn't collapsed. The USA has not yet printed itself to oblivion.

Ok nah, continue.

ositadima1:
Seconded, if one can get it at around 27.5 (still okay at CP), it will be a good deal. Since 2021, it has been bouncing between 27 something and 35 something, that is, more than a 25% gap. I don't see it breaking below 27 or staying below 27, given the economic realities. I am not buying it now, though, as I am already invested in another play. But if it gets to that 27, I may consider liquidating my position in that play...

@ogoo4real, I hope my blah blah blah convinced you to buy [Flourmill]. It's up 8%.
Nowadays, a 5% move is not small ooo, given the stagnant market.

ogoo4real:
Flour Mills Nig Plc on my mind.

Seconded, if one can get it at around 27.5 (still okay at CP), it will be a good deal. Since 2021, it has been bouncing between 27 something and 35 something, that is, more than a 25% gap. I don't see it breaking below 27 or staying below 27, given the economic realities. I am not buying it now, though, as I am already invested in another play. But if it gets to that 27, I may consider liquidating my position in that play...

Acidosis:
But 1 million in 1993 isn't a small money sha considering the fact that Nigeria's minimum wage was only about N300.


Many of those who could afford N1 million in 1993 are probably dead now. If they are still alive, N225m may not hold much value to them. That's around the cost of two APC presidential tickets.

Old not dead oo.

One of the issues back then was information asymmetry. It was not like today, when information is readily available and we have online platforms like Nairaland where anyone can get information easily for free. In those days, you needed to be in certain influential circles to know what was really going on.

I know someone who relocated from Italy after living there for about 20 years and came back in 1994 with about 4 to 3 million naira (after currency conversion). They had family properties in Aba and Onitsha, each worth 2 to 3 million at the time. Today, the man is still alive, though poor. He kept most of that money in the bank Société Générale, which went under. My point is that information is very important, even more important than how much money you have.

Emumakpo:
Sir, can Investment in stocks give one an edge over this situation of naira devaluation?

Yes.

OldBeer:
You are wasting time on a perpetual old foool.
Rumor has it that he got burnt on the NSE and now resurfaces to gloat about the dollar rates. It's the only way he can be happy.

Do what others on the thread do and ignore him.
🚶‍♂️

Why the emotional outburst? Someone made a factual statement, and you countered it with dubious claims. Why nah?

Currency decline or devaluation makes sense when you already have infrastructure in place. Then, investors will come in, and exports will boom. Nigeria doesn't seem to have strong infrastructure, so the devaluation will cause more harm than good. Very soon, it will be clearer to everyone.

"The ability to predict the future is not about magic or ESP. It's about understanding the past, present and the forces that are shaping it." - George Soros

rmx:
What of if he converts the funds back to pounds after he sells off and waits for other opportunities in the nse that will definitely present itself in the next 5 to 10 years , surely he should do better than 113 m while limiting his exposure to naira devaluation ?

The question is: Will the naira devaluation exceed the 14% minimum annual return that he will make on a Nigerian bond? We don't know. But I know that if the money is held in at 14% in sukuk, the naira has to fall to above 3200 naira to a Pound for him to do worse, assuming that the UK bond maintains a 4.5% return over the course of 10 years.

If you spot an opportunity within the 10-year period, the bond can still be sold. Better still, the yearly proceeds can be invested in the stock market or other bonds.

Again, this is one way to play it. There are multiple ways to approach this. Besides diversification, our work is to determine the one that makes the most sense and exposes us to the least risk. AI, some algebra, and Excel can give us some insights.

phadriz:
Most of you don't understand that no one way to wealth building through portfolio management, you don't have to stick to a pattern. You move base on changes. What you wrote is just theory which is good on paper only. For your information I only invested 30% of my savings in the NGX, 70% is in fixed income in the UK which would be used for future investment in £, that is diversification.

I don't know where you saw in my post that there is one way to wealth creation. I may have a prospect to relocate and I asked if I could fund my account in naira from wherever I find myself.

Then I mentioned one of the reasons why I would do that.

Besides, it's not theory - everything I wrote there is pure fact. I knew with almost 100% certainty that GTCO and DANGSUGAR would deliver before they did, and if you follow my posts, you'll see that it's there. I also know that bonds now are at above 14%.

The only thing I don't know is the fate of the naira or the UK bond rate in 10 years.

phadriz:
Depending on the angle you are looking at it. I invested N25m in May 2023 which was £25,000. I bought over 8m units of Transcorp, I exited with value in excess of 40m which was around £33,000. I entered Oando @ 7.35, it rose to N16, I didn't sell because by my projection I expected Oando to do N20. Even @ current price my portfolio is around N50m (£40,600). Can you now tell me it unwise to invest in naira? I believe in price appreciation strategy and not dividend payout.

The best interest you can get in the UK fixed income investment is 4.5% per annum, if I had chosen that option my investment will worth £26,125 after a year.

That is part of the plan.

I did a little calculation, but before that I want to point out that the Nigerian market can be predicted to a large extent, although it requires a lot of patience and observation. Some notable stocks that would have been almost sure bankers for an astute investor are GTCO, DANGSUGAR, and some other banking stocks. By this time last year, the picture would have started to become clearer.

Now back to the calculation. ₦25 million, which was £25,000, was doubled, and now he can sell off and enter sukuk or long-term bonds at 14% minimum. After ten years, his ₦50 million (after the double) would amount to ₦113 million, while the same pound at 4.5% would be £34,000 at the end of 10 years. The naira would need to fall above ₦3,320 per pound for him to do worse in the next 10 years.

I know some of you are abroad. How do you fund your Nigerian bank account in naira for the purpose of stock investing? I assume that once I have funds in my Nigerian account, funding my stockbroker can easily be done from anywhere.

essentialone:
Please, I really need a step by step guide on how to go about this

Here are the steps to open a NASD account in Nigeria:

1. Visit the NASD website at https://nasdng.com.
2. Click on the "Join NASD" button on the homepage.
3. Select the type of account you want to open, such as NASD Private Market, NASDeP, or NASD Crowdfunding.
4. Fill out the registration form with your personal information, including your name, email address, phone number, and address.
5. Upload the required documents, such as a valid ID card, passport photograph, and utility bill.
6. Submit the registration form and wait for approval.
7. Once your account is approved, you will receive a confirmation email with your login details.
8. Fund your account and start trading on the NASD OTC Market.

Note that you also need to open a CSCS account for transactions on NASD OTC Market. The process of opening a CSCS account is separate from opening a NASD account. You can contact your bank or a stockbroker to help you open a CSCS account.


Copied...

Nigeria still has a lot of potential, and there is still a lot of room for improvement. If Vietnam, which was at war for many years, exports five times more than us, then there is hope. The highest exporter in Africa is South Africa.


https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/worlds-exports-by-country-one-chart/

Foodempire:
I'm looking at it from this angle: if for instance you lock in 100m for 10 years, you will get 15,740,000 per annum, let assume dollars is #2k in ten years time, your dollars would be 200m and your SUKUK would be 257m, but you would gain more if you invest the dollars in eurobond @ 5% making a total of 300m. It's a Dicey situation but dollars investment seems guaranteed and more better.

How about splitting the audio 100 million and doing both the dollar and the sukuk? The dollar rate and eurobonds are not risk-free.

emmanuelewumi:
BUA has a return on capital employed of 20%.


Dangote cement has about 50%.


Lafarge has 20%.


The net debt of Bua in 2022 was N260 billion.


Capex/sale 30%. 5% and below is better


Capex/Operating Cash Flow is 70%. Just 30% left as free cash flow.


Free cash flow/net income of 40%. Meaning just 40% of the earning was converted to FCF. I look at businesses with a minimum of 80% conversion rate


Even with this 95% the net income was paid as dividend.

With a free cash flow of N42 billion, the business should not have paid more than N34billion as dividend or 80% of the free cash flow, but the company paid a dividend of about N100 billion.


Meaning money was borrowed to pay dividends and yet dividend yield was about 3%

Well, it may not be that bad. Remember that the company has had three cement plants under construction by a Chinese company.

I also read somewhere that the plants are almost complete and will come online in the first quarter of next year. This will bring its production up to 17 million metric tons.

So, the capex was put to good use and may likely drop sharply next year. Did you consider all of this in your calculations?

emmanuelewumi:
Rabiu is only playing to the gallery, it is not sustainable, the company's balance sheet is not healthy enough and the earnings are not of high quality

This is a good opportunity for speculators to stockpile BUA cement bags. I also thought as much. It was either that WAPCO, BUA, and Dangote have been selling at a huge premium, or it is just a temporary market gimmick.

ibechris:
On this thread,I have defended u and I have defended Ahib when u guys were being attacked in the past...many of us came to ur rescue and subsequently restored sanity here.

But to think that a whole u could single out people to be ban shows u don't worth it one bit.

This is a show of deepseated hatred for others...be careful and still respect yourself.

Guy relax, na early morning we day and today come be independence eve.

I hope you were all here when Baba approved the copy-pasting of disparaging material. When it starts, nobody should get angry o.

emmanuelewumi:
author=ositadima1 post=126142343]

Are we actually reading the same thread?

I don't really have time, else I would have shown you that he was always the first to start tribalistic posts. At least here on this thread, I don't know what happens elsewhere.

Except you see calling out the bad leadership presented to us by our leaders who happen to be Northerners mostly as an attack on his people.

Come on, let's not be tainted by emotions.



Why didn't they report him? And the admins will remove.



If is trolling the thread, why didn't they ignore him?



But in a situation whereby we have people who enabled and encouraged his trols and other contributions that are not wanted on this thread by exchanging banters with him, but because they could not cope with his arsenal now think he should be singled out for a ban is what I don't agree with


Fair is fair.

Alright, let the thread go to shit then.

emmanuelewumi:
Exactly reason why people who live in a glass house should not throw stones.


For every accusing fingers pointed at others, three are directed at the accuser

Again, another funny post. We all have the potential to go crazy.

There are a million and one posts that can be copied and pasted here. If you encourage this kind of behavior, sooner or later someone else on the other side of the argument will start spamming the thread with copied and pasted sensational news.

At that point, the whole thread will go to shit.

emmanuelewumi:
Why didn't they report him for him.

Why was he fighting multiple people? You can't disrespect his people and expect him to keep quiet.

Since he is the only among his people here, he will ready to attack those who disrespect his people no matter the number of his attackers.


Why should someone single out Ahib. That is my problem.



You can't keep on adding petrol to fire and expect the flame to diminish


Reason why all the people involved in the quagmire should be sanctioned.



We can't keep on igniting a problem or catalysing a problem and then come back to claim being a victim

Are we actually reading the same thread?

I don't really have time, else I would have shown you that he was always the first to start tribalistic posts. At least here on this thread, I don't know what happens elsewhere.

Except you see calling out the bad leadership presented to us by our leaders who happen to be Northerners mostly as an attack on his people.

Come on, let's not be tainted by emotions.

oluayebenz:
Foo.lish people will drag Ahib, and when he finally come for them....
They will be shouting ban up and down.

The mods understand the situation and they won't conciliate.

You're funny. What do you mean by "come for them"? Is it by copying and pasting negative news?

Anyone can copy and paste negative news to disparage someone else. There is so much information on the web about anything and any stance that any fool can copy and paste it to make a semblance of an argument.

I honestly don't see any solid or well-thought-out arguments coming from that guy, just childish tantrums.

He is falling hands big time.

emmanuelewumi:
Why should you single out one person.


Ahib
Jedisco
Acidosis
Ibechris


And all the people involved in this argument should be banned.


We should learn to ignore those who have decided to dance naked in the market.

I read somewhere that you are a school administrator. Is this the kind of philosophy you teach your students?

If a specific section of a system is malfunctioning and affects other parts of the system, do you remove the whole system instead of dealing with the root cause?

One person has been quarreling with multiple posters for the past two months, and you can't see that he is at fault? Why don't you, as his friend, call on him to refrain from causing trouble?

ojesymsym:
Let us start by analyzing his statement. Na you and loco be the major jijo master, from how the market went this year, is it really likely that he turned 4M into 32M from the stocks he mentioned? Some of those stocks rallied at the same time. I am just curious.

Based on price history, it could have been possible, but not in the order he mentioned.

30-Mar-23****1.5***Transcorp
27-Apr-23***3.12***Transcorp
3-May-23****0.33***japaulgold
22-Jun-23****0.65***japaulgold
11-Aug-23***33*****dangsugar
4-Sep-23****66.5***dangsugar

I never see my Zenith dividend o.

Adinije:
which app is this pls.

It is not an app, it is a chart generated with a Python program. You can also do something similar with Microsoft Excel or by hand. I get the raw data from the MorganCapital daily price list.

Note that the breakout strategy with volume works most of the time and is one of the TA entry strategies in many books. The other strategy works for stocks that are in continuous full bid, and once you spot a very large volume day, it is time to reconsider your position. Thank you.

Oando gave several exit hints to those who use technical analysis, two of which are based on the theory in my Dangote post.

Below shows the 40-day bar chart representing days, Naira traded, % change, and closing prices. While the stock was doing well, the full bid volume traded was reducing, signifying confidence by the holders of the stock. Then, on the 13th, we saw a huge spike in volume, which signified that something had changed and we should have sold the next day at around 10.

After this, there was luckily another series of full bids with reducing volumes, then on the 20th, another boom in volume. Again, we should have sold the next day at around 13.

As a bonus , my newbie breakout strategy: if a stock has been trading in a range for a long time, if it breaks out of the range at large volumes, that's a good entry point. Here my entry point would have been 6.7 or below.

ositadima1:
Look at the chart below of Dangsugar. The horizontal green lines are my attempt at making a "volume profile." Each line length shows the total volume at which a trade was closed. The longer the line, the more trades were closed at that price.

I have a theory. If you look at the lengths of the past bars, you will notice that they keep getting smaller. To me, this is a sign that the uptrend is not yet exhausted. I believe that the uptrend will continue until I start seeing longer bars.

My explanation is that the big players are privy to some good information and are not selling yet.

It is debatable, but your use of language is ambiguous.

When you say "created", are you implying the concept of creationism because not everyone holds that view? Or, do you mean that women are bred to entertain their male counterparts?

If the latter, then it is like saying that some people are bred to serve others.

If you are an employee, then you are bred to serve your employer. As a citizen of Nigeria, you are bred to pay taxes and be docile while the government is squandering the country's resources. You see where I am going? Is that right?

My trading goals as a learner:
--------*---*--------*---*--------*---*--------*---*
1. Protect my principal first.
2. Don't let a large profit turn into a small profit.
3. Don't let a small profit turn into a loss.
2. Don't let a small loss turn into a large loss.

emmanuelewumi:
With a high probability and possibility of getting to N18 to N20 million

Look at the chart below of Dangsugar. The horizontal green lines are my attempt at making a "volume profile." Each line length shows the total volume at which a trade was closed. The longer the line, the more trades were closed at that price.

I have a theory. If you look at the lengths of the past bars, you will notice that they keep getting smaller. To me, this is a sign that the uptrend is not yet exhausted. I believe that the uptrend will continue until I start seeing longer bars.

My explanation is that the big players are privy to some good information and are not selling yet.