Ositadima1's Posts
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GANDALF1:Caverton has the potential to make a strategic move by announcing a dividend of 20 kobo, which would result in an impressive yield of 20% based on the current market price. If such a move is made, I anticipate the stock price to rise to approximately 1.7 naira. Considering the 2022 fourth-quarter reports, the earnings per share (EPS) stands at around 27k, which makes a dividend payout of 20k feasible. |
LordAdam16:Most individuals who have the courage to invest in stocks already have basic math skills, yet there aren't a significant number of successful stock investors. Also, It's short-sighted and egotistical to think that only your approach is correct and that other methods won't work. The world isn't binary or black and white, and there are many ways to approach a problem. |
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emmanuelewumi:The Medallion Fund is a hedge fund managed by Renaissance Technologies, founded in 1988 by mathematician Jim Simons. It is one of the most successful and mysterious hedge funds in the world, with little known about the inner workings of its investment strategy. The fund has produced impressive returns for its investors and has become synonymous with the idea of using mathematical models and algorithms to trade in financial markets[1]. The Medallion Fund is only available to current and former partners of Renaissance Technologies[4]. The Medallion Fund has returned an annualized 63.3% from 1988 to 2018, according to a 2019 study[2]. The fund employs high-frequency trading and exploits inefficiencies in the stock market[3]. One strategy it uses takes advantage of the inefficiencies in the execution of large transactions[3]. The fund finds individual patterns in data and uses mathematical models and algorithms to trade in financial markets. The Medallion Fund's returns are so spectacular that Jim Simons became one of the world's richest people[3]. Over the years, Medallion's spectacular returns, as well as fees on the other funds, have made founder Jim Simons a multi-billionaire. Jim Simons' hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway are both extremely successful investment vehicles, but they differ in their investment strategies and approaches. The Medallion Fund employs high-frequency trading and mathematical models to trade in the stock market, exploiting inefficiencies in the execution of large transactions[1][2]. On the other hand, Berkshire Hathaway invests in a diversified portfolio of companies and has consistently outperformed the market over the long term[3]. While both Simons and Buffett are extremely successful investors, Simons has been more successful than Buffett in terms of returns[1][3]. However, it is important to note that both investment vehicles have different investment strategies and approaches, and it is difficult to compare them directly[3]. |
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emmanuelewumi:Some data from 2022 audited results: Number of shares: 34,199,421,366 Proposed dividend: 90 kobo per share EPS: 4.84 PAT: #170,277,000,000 Equity: #922,104,000,000 Audited results: https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37990_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2023.pdf |
Justcul:I think for GTCO 2022 audited results are not yet out, but using 2021 results fairvalue is #23.8. |
BabsO2:Some stocks I checked and my estimated fair values: Sterlnbank - #2.6 Fidelitybk - #6.5 **slightly overvalued FCMB - #6.3 Zenithbank - #28.5 **slightly overvalued Vitafoam - #36 Ucap - #16 Nahco - #16.5 Wapco - #33 Dangsugar- #45 With d exception of a few most of these stocks distributed less than half thier EPS as dividends, keeping yield low. |
emmanuelewumi:I understand that you believe that Free Cash Flow (FCF) is a more reliable measure of value than Profit After Tax (PAT). I also suspect that PAT can be manipulated by adjusting non-cash items. However, both measures are influenced by accrual accounting as delays in account receivables can be a major issue for both. While attempting to calculate FCF for UBA, I encountered difficulties because banks include changes in deposits from customers and other banks in their cash from operating activities. Why is this done since deposits are technically not the bank's money? I wanted to calculate FCF by subtracting CAPEX from cash from operating activities, but apparently banks follow a different method for this calculation. Any Ideas? What is ur own fair value for UBA? |
emmanuelewumi:I have observed that an increase in the dividend payout ratio usually leads to a positive and significant movement in stock prices. So, estimating favourable fair value for stocks also requires a catalyst such as an increased dividend payout ratio. To justify my thinking, yields above 14% may occasionally appear, but they tend not to last long. Consider UBA, which has an EPS of #4.8 and a payout ratio of below 20% at #0.9. It is almost clear why its price is not moving in tandem with its performance. After adjusting for risks, UBA should be valued at not less than #20, similar to ZENITHBANK and GTCO. This undervaluation is not unique to UBA, as there are other stocks experiencing the same issue. Waiting for a good increase in payout ratio before buying an undervalued stock may be a sound strategy while the fund is earning better returns else where. In the case of UBA, it appears that the stock will remain around its current value until the company raises its payout ratio. |
ositadima1:It was quite embarrassing that I misspelled "fair" three times in a row. ![]() However, I reviewed the fair value of BUACEMENT, WAPCO, and DANGCEM based on their audited 2022 results. Here are my back of the envelope results: BUACEMENT has a fair value of #30, WAPCO has a fair value of #33, and DANGCEM has a fair value of #224. Out of the three, only WAPCO appears to be undervalued. Despite having a similar equity as BUACEMENT, WAPCO's PAT was half that of BUA, seriously, WAPCO can do better. BUACEMENT had a good ROE of 25%, but massively overvalued. On the other hand, DANGCEM had an impressive ROE of 35%, but slightly overvalued. To stroke my Ego a bit , I should mention that the day after my December post, WAPCO was selling at 23.45, and it has since gained 10%. |
Thank God ![]() |
Harvestock01:Yes, it replaces a large number of low-level laborers with a smaller, more skilled workforce. |
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OBAGADAFFI:The widespread use of manual labor in manufacturing is rapidly becoming outdated due to the increasing efficiency of robots. Soon, it is expected that robots will be able to manufacture goods at a lower cost than human factory workers, even workers in Nigeria. Despite this, some individuals fail to recognize that the key to success lies not in cheap labor, but in innovation. For example, the Tesla factory in California is already 75% automated, while Amazon employs over 200,000 robots in its warehouses. Furthermore, agriculture is also becoming increasingly mechanized, with machines taking on more tasks. As a result, labor (blue collar workers) costs are expected to plummet in the near future. The capabilities of AI are already evident in the development of self-driving vehicles. The competition lies in who can innovate the fastest, rather than who can produce the most consumer goods with cheap labor. Currently, America and the West remain at the forefront of innovation. |
Agbalowomeri:Be like say you go vacation in 2020 when it was restructured from 50k to N2. I lost over 50 percent of my share value back then. ![]() AXA Mansard Nigeria underwent a share capital reconstruction that involved a redenomination of the nominal share value of its shares from 50 kobo to 2 naira. This was done by consolidating every four shares held by each shareholder into one share. The total issued and fully paid-up shares of AXA Mansard Insurance Plc was reduced from 36,000,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each to 9,000,000,000 ordinary shares of N2.00 each. The share capital reconstruction was aimed at proactively managing the potential outcome of a significant devaluation of the naira, which could have affected the company's financial metrics. The reconstruction exercise was completed on December 7, 2020, and the suspension on the trading of AXA Mansard's shares was lifted. The company's entire issued share capital of 36,000,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each was delisted from the daily official list of the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), while 9,000,000,000 ordinary shares of N2.00 each were listed at N3.32 per share. |
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yMcy56:So, which one should I enter now that NAHCO has sailed away? |
yMcy56:Why do you think that the issue was resolved just because you brought it up on the forum? Do you apply this kind of reasoning when picking stocks? |
onegentleguy:You didn't include your usual phrase "do your due diligence." Despite losing 21.6 billion in 2022 and 17.6 billion in 2021, what makes Interbrew worth buying? Does the same apply to Caverton? Tesla serves as an example: from 2014 to 2019, it averaged a loss of 940 million USD annually. It wasn't until 2020 and 2021 that they broke even, and in 2022, they became very profitable. However, Tesla had a revolutionary technology in the works that would be in high demand once perfected. What does Interbrew have to offer that will generate value ahead the other brands? |
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