₦airaland Forum

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The completion of Dangote Refinery, which is rumored to be completed in 2025 by a Chinese company, is not only facing significant financial challenges but also political obstacles. The refinery is already struggling to service a massive $700 million annual interest on its debt, and it still requires an additional $3 billion to complete the project.

The Nigerian government had made a deal with Dangote Refinery to pay about $2.7 billion (i am not sure on this) in cash and crude oil for a 20% stake, but it has only managed to pay $1 billion, which it obviously borrowed. When President Buhari realized that the refinery was not going to start operations anytime soon, he refused to invest any more money.

Despite the expectations that the Dangote Refinery would come to the rescue by producing petroleum products and thus reducing inflation, it is unlikely to happen. Therefore, the removal of petroleum subsidy will inevitably cause a new round of inflation pressure on the economy, leading to an increase in the cost of goods and services.

This situation will have a ripple effect on the stock market. Most companies will experience a reduction in revenue, as increasing prices mean less sales, while some companies may experience an increase in profit-to-revenue margins as they adjust their prices to reflect changes in the economy. Many companies will see their Profit After Tax (PAT) reduced, which will be bad for investors. What do you think? Where is Oga Oracle, we need you to advise us on what to do next.

stockish:
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Thank you Sir,
But what do to say about cutix?

Cutix operates a factory in Nnewi and specializes in the production and sale of electrical cables.

Similar to Chams, Cutix is currently undervalued. Quick valuation estimating its fair value at 4.2 based on the last audited financials, but I don’t see it moving there soon because of low dividend payouts.

The company provides consistent dividends. It's liquidity is relatively low and you may not be able to sell/buy easily.

Towards the end of 2021, the stock price surged to 6 naira from 2 naira, but it eventually returned to its original value a few months later.

Recently, there has been a slight accumulation of the stock.

Overall, Cutix shows promise as a long-term investment, but it may take some time to yield results.

Payunsin:
Dividend season is almost ending and I believe one has to be very careful when investing now. The following stocks are on my mind at their respective current prices.
Wapco
Chams
Japaul oil
Cadbury
What are your opinions and suggestions of better undervalued stocks.
Thanks

Chams seems massively undervalued with a very low PE ratio, but its low trading volume and lack of regular dividends may not make it an attractive long term investment for now. I believe it may be best suited for "get in and get out" (GIGO) type of investments.

Wapco could be a better choice, as it has a good track record, decent financials, and pays dividends regularly.

Regarding Cadbury, an overvalued stock with poor ROE and dividends above EPS may not be a good investment. It's essential to consider the company's financials and earnings potential before investing in it.

Japaulgold appears promising with positive signs of generating profits, but its negative equity, huge losses in the past, and liabilities outweighing assets are red flags. You may want to wait for further progress before considering investing in this company.

emmanuelewumi:
Can you share the screenshot of what you read.

Good morning, can you share the services that your active business offers?

Teeonly:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38273_ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2023.pdf

N1.30 Dividend

Thank you for sharing this timely information with us. I am on board and optimistic about the outcome.

25% of states population => 25 people
25% of FCT population => 30 people

1.) 2/3 × 36 states + FCT => 24 x 25 + 30 = 630
Ans is D

2.) 2/3 × [36 states + FCT (state)] => 2/3 × (36 x 25 + 30) = 620
Ans is B

Ades1:
Here is the data I was able to scrape from the Internet. You're better with spreadsheet, you can enter the info for us to determine the growth rates

Starting in 2019 as that is when MTN started payments

2019 2020 2021 2022
MTN N7.92 N9.4 N13.12 N15.6
GTCO. N2.80 N3 N3 N3.1
Zenith N2.80 N3 N3.1 N3.2
UBA. N1 N0.52 N1 N1.1
Okomu N4 N7 N8 N21

Okomu see below

Erix1600:
The Nigerian Stock market is a very volatile investment channel. It favours only the super rich that are able to buy majority shares of a company. Before you invest in the stock market, I would advise you watch the movie titled "the wolf of wall street" and understand its intricacies.

I watched the movie nah, Jordan and his team made mad money by cunning people into buying bad stocks, especially dead penny stocks. It has nothing to do with volatility.

Those people in the movie were not even doing any TA or FA, just be buying stocks based on recommendations from the wrong people.

To make money in the market you need to do due diligence, whether TA, FA or with luck charms.

"To follow the path, look to the master, follow the master, walk with the master, see through the master, become the master" - Zen teachings

Very powerful message.

LordAdam16:
Queen Cleopatra was Greek. A bona fide Caucasian Greek to be exact.

The evidence is conclusive.

There has been nothing in mainstream Egyptology to remotely suggest that Cleopatra was black. Nothing new to that effect has emerged in recent years either.

It is premium BS to suggest that this is "touchy" or "hotly debated" or in anyway related to the wacko "Jesus was Black" theories.

In fact, Ptolemaic Egypt is described in history circles as a Greek civilization. For more in-depth information, look up the "Hellenistic Period".

The truly astonishing part is that this is being billed as a documentary. Not a fictional story loosely based on an historical account. An actual effing documentary. I find it insulting.

If a filmmaker tried to make a documentary about Lady Slessor and depicts her as a Black African woman, what would be your response? Would you describe it as "touchy" or "hotly debated"? What about Lady Khama?

If skin color is so important, there are other Egyptian Queens that fit the bill. Queen Nefertiti and Pharaoh Hatshepsut come to mind. Pharaoh Hatshepsut dressed like a man with fake beards according to some accounts. That could fit their trans ideology or whatever. But they had to go pick an unmistakable Greek icon to make a mockery of black excellence.

-Lord

Cleopatra was of Macedonian descent and not a native Egyptian. She was a member of the Ptolemaic dynasty, which was founded by Alexander the Great's general Ptolemy in 326 BC. The Ptolemies were of Greek origin and ruled Egypt for three centuries.

Cleopatra was the last sovereign of her dynasty and came to power in 51 BC at the age of seventeen. She was married to her eldest brother, Ptolemy XIII, who was ten years old at the time.

Cleopatra was the first Ptolemaic ruler to learn the Egyptian language, as all those before her spoke only Greek. She also linked herself to various deities, such as Isis, which further cemented her role as ruler of the land. Cleopatra's reign was marked by political turmoil and she lost her kingdom once, regained it, nearly lost it again, and amassed an empire. She was a skilled leader and was able to ingratiate herself with the new master of the Roman world, Julius Caesar.

onegentleguy:
I think the rise in the prices of UBA and STERLING will follow an "aggressive pattern" when it begins.

Those 2 are among the cheapest banking coys at the moment.

TA interpreting a thing or two.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.
Pls do well to follow your instinct.

It is well

Both UBA and STERLNBANK are undervalued (my opinion), however, similar to many other stocks, they require a catalyst to initiate movement.

I used a quick and crude method to value TRANSCORP at 4.1, and it seems to have encountered its own catalyst...

AIRTELAFRI has experienced a 19% decline this month and its current RSI suggests it is oversold.

Quick valuation of its March 2022 audited results assumes fair value at 1350.

Homemade OBV indicator suggests that it is being accumulated, despite breaking the 1260 support level.

May be ok to enter AIRTELAFRI at 1000 or lower if it gets there...

Olaide1295:
I’m talking about overall portfolio comparison in hindsight (not single stock picks).
If you compare your stock returns over the past 10 years vs bonds return in same period. Which performed better?

It's surprising that you would ask such a question, considering the vast number of portfolio options available.

With an assumed constant of 150 stocks over the past decade, there could have been over 1 trillion (1 x 10 to power 15) unique portfolios consisting of 10 stocks each, each with its own diverse returns.

It wouldn't even make sense to compare bonds and the NSE index (which can be done) since it's not feasible to purchase the entire stock market.

Based on some research, I couldn't find a study related to NGX and Nigerian bonds though, but typically stocks have provided higher returns than bonds, despite being riskier.

One study I found of US stock portfolios vs bonds:
https://web.archive.org/web/20200709083020/https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1120&context=sbr

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced new guidelines on the management of dormant accounts and unclaimed balances in banks.

The apex bank has created a designated account, the "Unclaimed Balances Trust Fund Pool Account," where it will collect all eligible accounts balances that have been dormant for ten years or more. The eligible accounts include current, savings, and term deposits in local currency, domiciliary accounts, proceeds of uncleared financial instruments, and unclaimed salaries and wages, among others. The CBN said it would invest the funds in Nigerian treasury bills and other approved securities and return them to the beneficiaries within ten days of a request.

The new guidelines take effect immediately, and any bank or financial institution that contravenes them will be fined.

.

mendes911:
You stated that Caverton's EPS is 27k and if they eventually do a 75% payout, that would amount to about 20k dividend. That is wrong. 27k EPS was only for Oct. - Dec. 2022 unaudited results and payout rate cannot be based on a single quarter. If you had suggested that the 20k dividend would have come from their retained earnings, that would have supported your "wild expectation" of a 20k dividend however how unlikely and far fetched that might sound.

U said EPS is 2k, right. Why are the numbers not adding up:

1Q - January to March - PAT:
611,857,000
2Q - April to June - PAT:
-409,058,000
3Q - July to September - PAT:
121,921,000
4Q - October to December - PAT:
910,764,000

Total PAT = 1,235,484,000
EPS = 1,235,484,000/3,350,509,750=0.37

Can huge impairment charges and larger taxation, interest and depreciation charges in d audited results reduce EPS to 2 kobo.

DrAwo:
No problem boss...

Are you willing to stake 50% of your portfolio on that "if"?

Anyway, what's good for the 'Greece' may not be good for 'Uganda'...

Sir, infact for those interested this is the best time to buy Caverton @0.97 and not when it starts moving up. Yes, I said it. Pls bookmark this post.

yMcy56:
Anyway, this same Caverton is on watchlist for possible merger, acquisition or delisting from NGX......by the Newbie's Association of Nsempa. The grammarians are welcomed.

Lol. Make Una no vex my ogas. I'm also just sharing my opinion on the matter.

If I am not wrong, about 75% of Caverton share is owned by 3 entities. I presume d 3 entities are same individual or family members, the Makanjuolas.

yMcy56:
Plenty grammarians with plenty grammars on top Caverton.
With all these book quotes and book titles, e be like say people like us never even start or know anything about this stock biz o.

Anyway, this same Caverton is on watchlist for possible merger, acquisition or delisting from NGX......by the Newbie's Association of Nsempa. The grammarians are welcomed.

Good morning @yMcy56.

DrAwo:
Just to help your ministry, look at the chart below to see historic EPS and dividends paid for caverton. Even in the good times, caverton has never been generous with dividends talkless of now that things are tight...

Caverton is one of the most dangerous companies on the NGX when it comes to anticipating what dividends they'll pay. And I'm speaking from experience...

EPS. Dividend
2017 0.77 0.15
2018 1.2 0.25
2019 1.29 0.20
2020 0.35 0.1
2021 -1.28 0.00

Be careful with Caverton and dividends. What they choose to pay is what they choose to pay...

I don't know why you are all freaking out. It was not a buy suggestion, since their price fell by a lot, I simply said that if caverton wanted to recover somewhat they can make a strategic move by paying 20 kobo. It was a thought experiment. Maybe, they won't pay anything at all this time, but you all failed to tackle the main idea. If caverton decided to pay 20 kobo will the share value appreciate? Yes or No?

.

mendes911:
Again you misunderstood the bolded. You are new here! Some other thing happened in late 2013 which I am sure you are unaware of.

Yes I am new, I started investing in 2020. Most of what happened in the past can be seen on charts.

What happened in 2013?

mendes911:
Ok. Since you still have failed to understand what led to this, let me come clean a bit.

You stated that Caverton's EPS is 27k and if they eventually do a 75% payout, that would amount to about 20k dividend. That is wrong. 27k EPS was only for Oct. - Dec. 2022 unaudited results and payout rate cannot be based on a single quarter. If you had suggested that the 20k dividend would have come from their retained earnings, that would have supported your "wild expectation" of a 20k dividend however how unlikely and far fetched that might sound.

Believe me Sir, we would have seen a long epistle from our "oga at the top" if Caverton's 2022 result is/was spectacular. But still, this is NSE where anything is possible and traders can still make massive return on this stock. We once bought and made profit on stocks that didn't have any office nor financial reports.

You are the one dragging the whole thing, remember that I said "Caverton has the potential to make a strategic move...", Then some other poster came along and said eps was 2k, even when the audited result is not out yet and i said ok.

So, an Oga most first talk about a stock before we can make our own assumptions. Ok bro.

mendes911:
If only Osita knows what happened in all these quoted years, he won't have come to this platform to say majority of us wants to be spoon-fed.

The stock is near its all time low, what more can possibly go wrong? Do you want a stock that has a book value of 5 naira be valued for 2 kobo? You wan thief am?

DrAwo:
Lol...
Caverton never show you shege before...

I dey reason say the person way dey manage the company na still him get majority shares. Be like say him choppings dey come from inside d company. He no too send dividend or capitalization.

YoungBuffet:
Also happened in Oct 1965

I don't know the meaning of all this dates. NSE never start in 1965.

Agbalowomeri:
Same thing that happened in year 1985

What happened in 1985?

mendes911:
You dey miss road and you want me to come and seek for direction from you. Otilooo.

Maybe you haven't had that "thing" you said you enjoy so much and "konji" come dey crowd your judgement. Look at the report again Sir.

I don't want a repeat of what happened in 2015.

What happened in 2015?

Frangel:
Yes, they can pay 20k or more from their retained earnings, if they can raise the cash for such.

Q4 2022 EPS alone is 27k, but they have 2k EPS for the Year 2022 (UFS).

Thank you for pointing that out. Does this mean that the EPS is actually 2 kobo? I had based my calculations on the fourth quarter results, and I was under the impression that the Audited financial reports were delayed.

Agbalowomeri:
Trouble makers everywhere

What's causing the commotion. Caverton paid 10 kobo in 2021, they have the capacity to pay 20 kobo. They don't necessarily need to focus on building equity since their 17 billion equity only generated around a 1 billion in profit.

By giving 75% of their profits to shareholders, the dividend yield would rise to 22% (20 kobo divided by 97 kobo).

Currently, the average yield in the market is 12%, which means that investors would push the price up to around 1.7 naira or so. It's not a rocket science, abi?

mendes911:
Is this what you could glimpse from Chat GPT?

I recommended that you invest time in comprehending what ChatGpt is and how to utilize it. This will help mitigate any negative emotions you may experience while reading my posts. Alternatively, feel free to send me a private message, and I can provide you with some helpful tips and tricks.