₦airaland Forum

Oh, how could I forget? The award for most entertaining commentator of the year goes to none other than our very own Mcy56. She's got her own unique style, but I wouldn't classify her as a fundamentalist or technician. She probably studied mass communications in school, or maybe she's just naturally gifted. But one thing's for sure, with her commentary, the market is never boring!

Wapgod:
What are this stocks/companies?

My friendo, you got some paying to do if you want my expert advice. Just type in "OGG" or "Onegentleguy" or "Current price" or "Emanuelwumi" or some other hot shot in the search box on the page and sift through their posts like a true pro. Just make sure you bring your wallet, because access to this kind of wisdom doesn't come cheap. Ha ha.

In my humble opinion, technical analysis should be left to those who like to claim they're experts. I speak from experience, trust me. Technical analysis is not for the faint of heart, as it's like a game of 'he said, she said' where two people can look at the same chart and come to completely different conclusions. And let's not forget the wild and crazy practitioners who talk about fractals, waves, parabolic curves and fibonacci, bless their hearts. (My shoutout to you guys, keep on keepin' on!)

My fundamental brain goes even further... to begin, it is important to keep track of companies recommended by reputable in-house experts, such as OGG, Oga Ema, CP, and Co. During bear markets, these companies may experience significant drops in value, providing an opportunity to gradually acquire shares.

However, it is crucial to conduct thorough research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.

that was my fundamental brain aided by chatgtp yearning, my technical brain has something else to say.

GreatEko:
Yes, that's how something of great value can be obtained.

It is during bear markets, when unsophisticated players, in shock due to the events taking place, are stampeding to sell and prices are falling left, right, and center, that is the time for an investor who has done their homework to get in. In my two years of watching the market, this has played out many times. The market often experiences irrational sell-offs at the onset of bad news, followed by buying when prices have already risen.

One strategy that investors may want to consider is to buy low during bear markets and hold on to their investments until the market recovers. This can be a risky strategy, as the market may continue to decline and prices may fall further. However, if the investor has done their homework and has identified companies that are fundamentally sound and have strong long-term prospects, they may be able to reap significant gains when the market eventually rebounds.

Additionally, investors should keep in mind that market fluctuations, although often unpredictable, are often driven by investor emotions and sentiment, rather than fundamentals.

Therefore, it is important to maintain a long-term perspective and not to be swayed by short-term market fluctuations.

An alternative to using dollars as a hedge against a weak and volatile currency would be to invest in assets such as silver, gold, or land. The dollar is not always considered a safe haven as it can also be affected by economic and political factors.

There are a few reasons why some people prefer to keep their reserves in assets such as silver, gold, or land rather than dollars. One reason is that these assets have historically held their value over time, whereas the value of a dollar can fluctuate based on economic conditions and government monetary policy.

Additionally, some people believe that owning physical assets such as gold or land can provide a sense of security and stability in uncertain economic times.

Additionally, some people believe that keeping reserves in physical assets can be a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. However, it's also worth noting that these assets also come with their own risks, and the decision of whether to invest in them should be based on an individual's financial goals and risk tolerance.

There are risks associated with keeping reserves in assets such as silver, gold, or land. One risk is that these assets can be difficult to value and their prices can be highly volatile. Their prices are also affected by a variety of factors, such as global economic conditions, political events, and supply and demand.

Another risk is that physical assets such as gold or silver can be stolen or lost, and land can be subject to natural disasters or other forms of damage.

Another risk is that these assets may not generate any income or cash flow, unlike stocks or bonds, which can generate dividends or interest. This means that an investor would need to sell their assets to access the funds.

Also, these assets are not as liquid as cash or publicly traded assets, which can make it difficult to sell them quickly in an emergency.

It's important to weigh the potential benefits against the risks when considering whether to keep reserves in assets such as silver, gold, or land. -- ChatGPT

essentialone:
What is the maximum number of companies that an Intelligent Investor should have in her or his stock portfolio?

There is no set maximum number of companies that an intelligent investor should have in their stock portfolio. The number of companies that an investor should hold in their portfolio can depend on a number of factors, including their investment goals, risk tolerance, and the diversification of their portfolio. Some experts recommend that investors hold a diverse portfolio of between 20 to 30 companies in order to spread risk, while others argue that a portfolio of a smaller number of companies, if carefully selected, can be just as effective. Ultimately, the best number of companies for an investor's portfolio will depend on the investor's individual circumstances and investment strategy. -- ChatGPT

Wapgod:
Okay I will do this.
Many thanks.

In addition to what people said here, you should also consider the quantity of share available for trading by the general public cos some stocks are held by insiders who are not allowed to sell, or large long-term investors. So, even if you had infinite capital you may not be able to buy up to 51% of some company.

Reminds me of the man that resently bought FBNH shares, despite becoming the largest shareholder he only had 4 to 5%. In the process, the FBNH share almost doubled if i am correct.

Mayfair Witches!

Growing up, I heard strange stories about familiar spirits that hunted families over generations. This show is about a powerful spirit called Lasha and the tragedies and powers it brings to the Mayfairs. It is also an adaptation of the novel trilogies by Anne Rice.

I hope it is as good as d books.

I have wondered where depreciation goes after being deducted on the income statement, did it go to debt clearance or to equity, so I made some inquiries;

Firstly, depreciation is an expense that is recorded on the income statement and reduces the company's net income. It is a non-cash expense that reflects the gradual consumption of the economic value of a long-term asset, such as a building or a piece of machinery.

However, the impact of depreciation on the company's net income does flow through to the company's retained earnings, which is a component of equity on the balance sheet. Retained earnings represent the portion of the company's net income that is not distributed to shareholders as dividends and is instead retained by the company to be reinvested in the business.

So, while depreciation is not directly recorded in the debt or equity section of the balance sheet, it does have an indirect impact on equity through its effect on retained earnings.

In effect, when a company makes a capital expenditure, the money is recovered from its earnings over time.

Nigerialabalaba:
Dis my oga ehn. pvc u no get, for naija, u no dey for ground, vote , u no go vote yet u dey drag Fulani like say na dem send u comot for NSE.

Serious investors don move dem money inside NSE since APC vote for Tinubu last year for dem primaries . Why?because serious investors sabi say na City Boy wey get sense, experience and sabi serious markets like NSE and na City Boy go win d election.

Oga, make I no lie for you, ehn, NSE too difficult and complex to manage for our Broda wey dey do him importation and container business jejely.

Investors sabi say NSE dey for briliiant people wey get more dan 3rd class for philosophy and submit GCE o level result to INEC o like our Broda o.

Investors don follow City Boy wey don manage Lasgidi very wella, City Boy wey get sense to score distinction for university beta pass oga Obi wey get 3rd class o and be trader o.

Investors don follow City Boy wey sabi road. Investors wey get beta money don use dem brain follow City Boy.Even Afriexim bank don put money inside Geregu and Mauritius still dey load Seplat ati be be lo.

Election wey don get clear leader On top both technical and fundamental analysis, na City Boy win d election and our election no be like wen u dey naija wen people dey rig and kill demselves upandan.

As u dey wait to come back to NSE so, ur delay don become denial and na people like u go collect our kaya las las.

I can count no fewer than three forms of manipulation in your post, both in the text and the graphics.

Here are d ones i spotted:
1. Certainty effect
2. Anchoring
3. Fundamental attribution error
4. Bandwagon heuristic

etc.

Manipulating people is a sin, expecially when the outcome may be disastrous.

Ibechris2:
I used to like his analysis but his hate for other tribes made me see him like what he was being called.

The guy was simply a "small minded bigot" and I thank those who attacked him until he left in shame.

Can Sukuk be used as collateral to secure bank loan, has any one tried it?

locodemy:
Mercy, CWG is @ another 10% today.Maybe na my hand oooo.

Thomaswytt
Cwg
Japaul.

100%+ assurance.Time will tell

Based on my estimates d fare value is 1.7

PZ fair value is 16 (another stock dat will deliver at least 40%)

Abbasmh:
it means thank you in hausa

But it was listed on the ngx, i know what i saw.

yMcy56:
Lol. I jump and pass Jare Oga mi.

Don't get me wrong o, i was only offering a job. Work from home.

Is AIRTELAFRI fair value 900 naira, giving current exchange rate and PAT?

yMcy56:
Oga no put sand sand for my garri o.
Go and look for Yariya, you no see her you no find her.....na so life be?


@Ositadima1 thanks a lot for those kind words. Wow!! Good to read that those newbie's talk is making positive impact. Wish you and your family well.
I wish myself well too.

There is room for you o in my team, I like to see my family as a team.

yMcy56:
Osita, see the person you go address your question to, no be me.
** So, keep eye on NAHCO or close eye buy some NAHCO.**

You don't know what you have been doing in my life. I have been feeding my small family of 3, wify and daughter, with ur picks. If i say i luv u it would be an understatement.

yMcy56:
You just wan whine me bah??
No be you dey teach us technicals, AI and Science here?
You know better, won't fall for the trap. Nagode.

Pls I am serious. But what is Nagode? Is it a stock?

yMcy56:
GTCO currently doing 24.35/24.40........Up with +N1.10 so far........
The bull moving this seems to be from Burundi...

Oga Rabbi said it, that the movement will be aggressive.... See as Oga Agba self take do U-turn...

Aunty Mercy, what do i buy now, i have some dollars sent to me by my sister's sister inlaw husband. I want to use it judiciously.

sky2891:
What of INTBREW?

Intbrew lost 16 billions in 2020 and 17 billions in 2021. Cant estimate properly if PAT is negative.

emmanuelewumi:
I just checked the 2021 annual report of Julius Berger for 2021 these are what I got, thing might have improved sha.


Cash flow return on investment was 17.5%, I want 20% and above

Gross profit/total asset was 14%, I want a minimum of 18%

Total cash in the bank was N61 billion

Revenue was N336, 5% of the revenue should be N17 billion. Meaning excess cash was about N47 billion, when you subtract N17 billion from the cash in the bank.

Invested capital N340 billion out of this equity was N53 billion and debt was N287 billion. Debt/equity ratio was 5.4, I don't know if that is the norm in the industry.


ROE was 15.6%, looking at the debt equity ratio of Julius Berger a return on equity of 15.6% is too poor we should be looking at 40% and above

Cash return on invested capital was 10%
which is minimum I want, ROIC was 7%, but the WACC was 15%. To create a long term value CROIC and ROIC should be higher than WACC by about 2 basis points and above.

Net debt/FCF was 8.4, meaning the free cash flow of the firm will liquidate the debt in 8 years and 5 months.

I prefer Net debt/FCF of 4 and below

EV/EBIT was 12, I prefer 10 and below.


Julius Berger cut dividend by about 60% few years, this is a major red flag was a dividend investor who loves predictable and steady passive income from his investment.

Julius Berger is cheap, digging deep about how cheap a stock is should be the last thing, being able to sustain income growth, wealth and value creation should be number one priority. If not one will fall into a value trap.

NB, I think Julius Berger is selling a 30% below its intrinsic value


I will still need to look at the performance of Julius Berger over the last 5 years

Great analysis! It is common for companies in the construction industry, including road construction companies, to have high debt-to-equity ratios. This is because construction projects can be capital intensive, requiring a large amount of funding to purchase equipment, materials, and labor.

The PAT compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last 5 years has been around 34%. In 2017, the annual growth was 167% after a negative year, and in 2018 it was 137%. In 2019, the growth was 43%, followed by a negative growth of -16% in 2020. In 2021, the growth was 20%.

I will consider entering a trade if it yields at least a 10% return over a short period of time and has good volumes. My target will be to capture a minimum of a 15% return, using a trailing stop to safeguard my potential profits. I can daydream o,

Agbalowomeri:
Lol
I mean what products are they selling in the market. I am not sure if I have ever seen a positive PAT from Champions Brewery. Times may have changed sha

2021 and 2020 was positive.

emmanuelewumi:
How did you arrive at this?

I am using a mixture of PAT, equity, share outstanding to make d estimation. More like a quick back of the envelope calculation.

So far, it is in sink with what simply wall st gets with their laborious valuations.

But i would also like to hear your opinion.

igbizen:
What could be the reason?

BUACEMENT fare value should be around 27 naira.

DANGCEM fare value should be around 214 naira.

WAPCO fare value should be around 32 naira. (Buy @ current price and be sure of 30% on ur money )

JBERGER fair value should be around 50 naira.

essentialone:
Please what is your Recommendation on Champions Breweries?

Should I Buy more, Hold it, or Sell it off?

I would sell or hold with a trailing stop in place, it is selling at more than 2X its fare value.

Coolcash1:
Expect a drop in pay out. Carrying such debt exposure and yet disregard ploughing back bulk of its profit and liquidity is a disaster in waiting. Thus, It needs to deleverage its balance sheet as the finance cost which keeps increasing might soon erode its bottom line.

I thought as much, it is paying off now but it is a very risky game they are playing. The very high ROE indicates that they can handle the recent increase in interest rates, but still, if d economy worsen (interest rates and high inflation) they will surfer more.

One of the potential negative consequences of high debt-to-equity ratio listed by ChatGPT:

"Increased vulnerability to economic downturns: If the company's profits decline or the interest rate on its debt increases, a high debt-to-equity ratio can make it more difficult for the company to meet its financial obligations. This can lead to financial distress."