₦airaland Forum

yMcy56:
Fou.l language! This is not necessary.


Alright Sir.

Is eze ule foul language?

RabbiDoracle:
This is the UCAP chart. And this is a parabolic move.

Parabolic moves don't fade out sideways. Most times it flashes. Most always need around 75% to 90% correction to revert to the mean value.

I think, UCAP is an exception cos of its high dividend yield, it is not reverting to mean any time soon, except performance go very bad.

GTCO is a good stock to pick now in my opinion. Nothing fundamentally bad(or dat bad) with d bank yet its doing less than 30% growth(Price appreciation) since March 2020, when most other banks in its category have long done over 50%(Zenith for example).

Itsrm:
This is how I understand it.

Before now, no one pays full duty on cars. What we pay is compromised duty.

With the E valuation, no more compromised duty. Everyone pays the correct surface duty which is a percentage of a fixed amount of money that customs considers as the value of the car.

I think what the agents are saying is that, customs has not taken into account the depreciation of the cars before arriving at the fixed amount. E.g, If customs values a 2017 car to be $21,000 when it was produced, it should come down to say $15,000 in 2022.

PS: Why do I think all these is connected to the Dangote Peugeot vehicle manufacturing plant? Let's make it more expensive to import cars so they can buy brand new in Nigeria

I see, if that is the case then it is unfair. Even calculating depreciation based on manufacture date alone would be unfair. Things like milage, overall integrity of d car and price at which it was purchased etc matter.

Rizin:
.

Mmmm. The policy in Nigeria are not always made public. It comes as rumors until they start implementation. This is because if made public, there is be threats for strike etal.

In 2012 it was just made rumors before the fuel increase.

I believe it will may come for us to understand.
Check below.
https://tribuneonlineng.com/vin-customs-clearing-agents-truce-meeting-deadlocked/

Below is extracted from it

But our argument now remains that a 15 years old vehicle, for instance, has a N2m worth of value, cost, insurance and freight. Under the normal settings internationally, there is depreciation of vehicles on a yearly basis.

What it's means is that minimum clearance fee will be in that range.

I am yet to understand or see were it was stated that the VIN valuation system will triple the clearing fees.

From a few googling I learned that it was introduced by the customs to speedup vehicle clearing. Given the vehicle identification number, the computer will extract several informations like make, make year, region etc and use it to generate clearance fees automatically.

VlamesIffect:
No worry you go soon suck wetin you dey find

Nawao, how people do that I still dey wonder, fill one's mouth with soiled pubic hairs.

mmadu4:
Hmmm

Please correct my mention, I missed the you between knocks and down in the last phrase. Thank you.

mmadu4:
Guys my pregnant neighbour wants me to make love to her she came to my room to charge her phone while we were watching a movie she touch me in a sensual way I had to back out she bluntly ask me to make love to her ... Hmmm Her husband has been away for 2 months on a job assignment .shes alone with her kid sister . What could trigger such desire ? I just can't .

Not again..., sometimes love comes around, and it knocks you down, just get back up when it knocks you down.

bibianna:
Yes o.

I can be happily comfortable without it!

You look like my future wife, seriously.

siofra:
I can't.

This is how I feel without makeup.

U are very attractive. I am sure would kill it with or without.

DrAwo:
Oga mi,
This level wey you enter so, e pass my power oh...

I love your data driven approach to investing though... Ride on...

Why? I been read am somewhere. Where person go dey adjust him portfolio between fix income assets like government bonds and riskier assets like stocks. I hear say him dey help protect against serious crash like d one way COVID19 carry come. U feet look into am sha. No knowledge be waste.

DrAwo:
This week on the podcast, we chat with Mr Olumide Adesina (Analyst/ writer, Nairametrics) about how Psychology impacts your investing returns, local vs foreign investing, his buy criteria and how to play the coming hike in interest rates.

Apologies for the poor audio quality. We'll do better subsequently.

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria/episodes/54--Impact-of-psychology-on-investing-A-chat-with-Mr-Olumide-Adesina-e1fvvl6

Very nice, I would also like to learn about these strategies: CPPI and TIPP portfolio insurance strategies.

Mpeace:
Just redused my Access for UBA. Let me collect good dividend before any other thing. Today is qualification date.

Last minute buying... I would wait, buy bottom around April or later and gain from the appreciation in price down d line which if I am right will cover forfeited dividend yield and more. I see UBA losing up some.

Modern Portfolio Theory: The good stuff

One of the most important and influential economic theories dealing with finance and investment, MPT was developed by Harry Markowitz and published under the title "Portfolio Selection" in the Journal of Finance in 1952.

The theory is based on Markowitz's hypothesis that it is possible for investors to design an optimal portfolio to maximize returns by taking on a quantifiable amount of risk. Essentially, investors can reduce risk through diversification using a quantitative method.

Modern portfolio theory says that it is not enough to look at the expected risk and return of one particular stock. By investing in more than one stock, an investor can reap the benefits of diversification—chief among them, a reduction in the riskiness of the portfolio. MPT quantifies the benefits of diversification, or not putting all of your eggs in one basket.

For most investors, the risk they take when they buy a stock is that the return will be lower than expected. In other words, it is the deviation from the average return. Each stock has its own standard deviation from the mean, which modern portfolio theory calls "risk."

The risk in a portfolio of diverse individual stocks will be less than the risk inherent in holding any one of the individual stocks, provided the risks of the various stocks are not directly related. Consider a portfolio that holds two risky stocks: one that pays off when it rains and another that pays off when it doesn't rain. A portfolio that contains both assets will always pay off, regardless of whether it rains or shines. Adding one risky asset to another can reduce the overall risk of an all-weather portfolio.

In other words, Markowitz showed that investment is not just about picking stocks, but about choosing the right combination of stocks among which to distribute one's nest egg.

Kinds of Risk
Modern portfolio theory states that the risk for individual stock returns has two components:

Systematic Risk: These are market risks that cannot be diversified away. Interest rates, recessions, and wars are examples of systematic risks.

Unsystematic Risk: Also known as "specific risk," this risk is specific to individual stocks, such as a change in management or a decline in operations. This kind of risk can be diversified away as you increase the number of stocks in your portfolio. It represents the component of a stock's return that is not correlated with general market moves.

For a well-diversified portfolio, the risk—or average deviation from the mean—of each stock contributes little to portfolio risk. Instead, it is the difference—or covariance—between individual stocks' levels of risk that determines overall portfolio risk. As a result, investors benefit from holding diversified portfolios instead of individual stocks.

Culled from Investopedia

Pretty cool uh, wait until you see the math behind the theory...

FUGAZ why always October?

Make of it what you want but I believe that the concept of seasonality applies to the stock market. Maybe, periodic re-balancing by d FDIs and the larger players... or the effect of d stars and d cosmos on d stocks like with d horoscope...whatever.

RabbiDoracle:
That was May 2007.

I can see you are old like us in this game.

Take kolanut.

When Zenith was N70 then, exchange rate was around N118. So effectively Zenith was 59 dollar cent. And they paid dividend of less than 50 kobo then.

Now it is paying N3 and exchange rate is N450 or less (CBN rate). And the stock is around N27. And N27 is 6 dollar cent.

I feel that what is coming will make 2008 bullishness look like it is playing table soccer.

That is if dividends go up, currently, bonds are at higher yield(13 to 12%).

Some other concerns:
1. Speculators who bought Zenith stocks in 2007 towards its peak(even at #40 and above) incurred big losses from where we stand today. D market remembers...

2. As d funds leave d west, China and Asia are d next bus stops before Africa. If not USD then Yen.

Lovelygbems:
Interesting....a red flag is pointing out that individuals put their money into banks?? Like banks don't have a team that meets individuals for funds??

Boring... I know banks are closely regulated by the CBN. Who regulates your business model?

.

Lovelygbems:
We run investment packages....one of the many financial instruments...that's what we seek approval for and not on any of our other businesses

If you read the statement well, you'd see where we stated that we used to do it among a few people and share profits....it was when we started to go large scale we sought them out for approval

In other words your company is trying to raise venture capital from the public.

"Unsecured loans provided to start-up companies and businesses that may not be able to get traditional loans are called venture capital."

Here are requirements for registration as VC managers:
https://sec.gov.ng/check-lists/requirements-for-registration-as-venture-capital-managers/

From my small research VC funding comes with serious Risks which I hope are addressed in the registration requirements, hence it's very wrong to sell these "investment packages" to the public without proper licensing.

Mpeace:
wrong info. They are paying about 66kobo only.

OK, thanks

dipoolowoo:
Ecobank Shareholders in Nigeria to Receive N66.6 as Dividend
https://businesspost.ng/economy/ecobank-shareholders-in-nigeria-to-receive-n66-6-as-dividend/

Fullbid loading... tomorrow.

The Efficient Frontier, introduced by Harry Markowitz in 1952, useful or not?

.

jedisco:
Recently, banks have cut down the international spending limit on their ATMs to between 20 and 50usd per month... This usually means there is some forex scarcity and if history is anything to go by, it foreshadows further devaluation.....

What's going on in Nigeria is sad cos the populce are being made poorer by the day simply because of nonsensical policies by the government

Though I agree some policies are wack, the Nigerian problem appears to be systemwide. From the weak and in most cases non existent public institutions(here I don't mean schools) down to our values as individuals.

The people in power are nothing more than a subset of our population. Change them and I can assure you that d situation wouldn't be much different.

In my opinion, schools and the media have a lot of work to do. We need to update our values.

Are Presco and Okomuoil the safest stocks on the NSE?

First Off, my analysis has two kinks in it;

1. D fact that I base solely on price action, no fundamentals
2. My data goes as far as March, 2020

OK, I computed d monthly returns (about 25 months) for d over 140 something equities traded on the NGX and filtered based on the following statistical measures;

1. Average returns: self explanatory, the higher the better.

2. Downside deviation from mean: Standard deviation is a well used measure of risk, the higher the STD the more volatile and less appealing the equity is. In d STD evaluation I only considered negative returns hence downside deviation.

3. Percentage of negative months: we want this number to be comparatively low.

4. Skewness and Kurtosis: There is a lot of literature on what these mean.

5. Jarque Bera test for normality: If a distribution is normal (gaussian distribution) then its properties are easily predicted. We know that d mean is the expectation, and that 68% of d returns are within 1 standard deviation, 95% within 2 and 99% within 3. No fat tails or dangerous outliers.

Conclusion: If you play safe, Okomuoil(slower but still good) and Presco is d way to go, an average monthly return of 4 to 5% respectively with very low volatility. In the short term (6 to 9 months maybe) this pattern is most likely to continue.

RepairZone:
How did you arrive at entry prices pls ?

I scan for the stock maximum level in d current year and discount max %drawdown from last year's chart.

Example: if a stock maximum was to be #5 in d present year and previous year max %dd was let's say 20%.

Then, I do #5 * (1-0.2) = #4
And of course, tracking, scanning and calculating by hand will be cumbersome. Python comes to d rescue.

Because d maximum changes as stocks hit higher highs d chart is also subject to change. Like I said, it is only a rough estimate.

Drawdown is d percent drop of a stock between its highest point and its lowest point for a given time frame. What some people call bear. Note that there may be more than one drawdown within the period (eg. Year), the worst is d maximum drawdown.

On selected stocks I used last years drawdowns to estimate possible entries. If all things remain d same(eg. No bad news, no pandemic, no wars or coup d'etat ).

In d table below:

Date: the day the stock hit its lowest point; for d maximum drawdown in 2021.

Drawdown(%): the magnitude of d drawdown in %

Value: the stock closing price on that day

CP: current closing price

EXP_P: expected entry price

For example, I expect zenith to drop to atleast #20.45 at some point this year. Bitcoin to $22,383.

DrAwo:
Updc is very different from UPDCREIT...

You are right.

I had a hard time finding it under the EQUITY board. It turned out to be listed under REITCEF for Real Estate Investment Trusts, Closed-end funds. What ever that means...

I am removing it from d table.

Phlinx:
I think the 0.07 is for Transcorp Hotel?

U are right. Updated with TRANSCOHOT.

emmanuelewumi:
Putting whatever growth you are looking at in percentage will make it easier for an informed analysis

OK, done. Kindly revisit the post.
Also added NESTLE.

emmanuelewumi:
Definitely you are not a shareholder.

We earned an interim dividend of N1.00 after their Q3 result and another N1.00 final dividend declared

OK, I am, not sure I got paid.

emmanuelewumi:
You also need to consider companies like Zenith, GTB, Wapco, Seplat etc that paid interim dividends.

Dividend yield of Lafarge should be about 8% or thereabout

WAPCO declared N1 so far. So u saying it is N2 (to be paid twice) ?

emmanuelewumi:
Kindly explain how you arrived at your growth figures

I started receiving daily price lists from Morgan Capital towards the end of March 2020. My trusted data goes that far.

I simply found d percentage change of closing price from my first data point to current price(as at yesterday).