₦airaland Forum

I can remember last year there was talk here about something fundamentally wrong with Honeywell flour.

I cant seem to remember the exact details.

Can anyone with the information help.

RabbiDoracle:
It is called special situations.

It usually occurs in a stock that has gone very high in price and fell uncountably low. So people tend to re-bid it back to the high.

FO was at N250 before and fell to N7. There is a tendency to re-bid it back to the high.

Stocks that can do that are NB (if bought at N10 after a sharp descent), Nestle( if bought at N100), Oando( at current price), GTB (if bought at N2), Total (if bought at N7).

A lot of stocks have done that. Even last year UBA was about 3 Naira and I feel it will touch 20 Naira. Diamond and Fidelity were pretty high before they fell as low as N1. If our macroeconomic activity keeps being good, most stocks could touch their all time highs in a few months.

Full disclosure I sold my Caverton with a healthy profit because I know that it has liquidity issues. I added to my fbnh with the money, no regrets yet.

I wonder why we can hold a losing stock for 4 years but a winning stock after 3 weeks will be doing us to sell.

I got my FCMB stock at the average cost of N 1.11 last year, when it made 100%, it took every fiber of my being for me not to sell it. We want to be value investors and read Benjamin Graham but to actually live the rules and methods is such a big challenge.

I'm an active reader of this thread and I don't comment much but I digest everything here. One of the most beautiful stories I have read here is about the guy that bought FO at N10 and sold at N200. There is no telling which stock will be my 2015 FO, but I don't even pretend to guess which of my 10 stocks will do that but I know that its only if I sit tight and follow my thought out system that I can possibly achieve that. I also know of a Company that got ACCESS bank shares for about N2 in 2006 and sold for N19 in 2007. We don't underestimate a Bear era in this forum (which is a good thing), lets not also underestimate a Bull era. The rules for both are different. If MMM could hold our attention as Nigerians for 1 yr before it finally ended, there is no telling when this mad bull of ours would end. It could be tomorrow and it could also be in 9 months.

I know the trading week might start tomorrow and throw all my analysis inside gutter, but I only live once

GODAKPAN:
Just got 13.45% from first bank for 143days. Account debited, interest yet to drop.

Access is giving 11 percent for the same period

Anybody trading index funds or ETF on the Nigerian Stock Exchange?

Pls I will like to know your experience with it and the liquidity to get in and out. Also for the index funds what's the commission like?

emmanuelewumi:
Same way nobody wanted to touch first bank@ N3.00 some few months ago, but investors have made close to 200% from the stock.

NB, I don't have neither Diamond bank nor FCMB in my portfolio.

I get the idea of value investing, I encouraged my folks to buy FBNH at N 3.5. I didn't have the money to buy at the time but I saw the value.

But that doesn't mean every crooked looking stock is going to be a value machine in 9 months. Until I see 2017 YE results, DB remains a bad buy.

emmanuelewumi:
Vetiva and Meristem have one of the best research team, the forecast of vetiva is correct 90% of the time.

True but Diamond is not a stock I would want to hold before I see their 2017 result. Their impairment loss might go from 35B to like a 60B by the time the auditors come in. Their unaudited 3rd quarter 2017 result still looks poor despite the cooking we know usually happens.

Despite all these, if the NSE ASI goes up, Diamond too will go up.

nio68:
This one na over-sharing o .. i like max 3-4 so when you hit it, the profit drops big time ...

I like peace more.

A lot of stocks have done really well this year. So total portfolio is healthy. I don't try to deceive myself that I know what those guys (mgt) are completely up to. I won't even support my relative's business with my every every, not to talk of these guys that don't have control or regulators.

Today's posts reminds me of the forex thread. Someone will share a negative opinion of a currency pair and some people will take offence with it. I always wondered if they imagined NL talk actually affects the $4 trillion fx market.

Maybe NSE is affected by NL talk, but I really doubt the effect might be significant. Someone's (free) opinion should not even be affecting adults that are cautious of the risk involved in stocks. NYSE is full of various kinds of pundits that can say and unsay anything but nobody ever takes them to court because last last there is a disclaimer out there for everybody to read.

This morning, when they said DF was going to reach 18. All our body was sweeting us. Now only 1 naira loss and we are doing like our enemies are doing party on our head.

Disclosure- Broker: Meristem. Stocks - 2 out of 3 Alhaji stock, 3 banks, 2 flour mills, 1 cement, 2 sugar coys, and 1 new age company �.

You guys should share the money around.... less room for hbp. Cheers to the weekend.

Coolcash1:
Lafarge projection and ratios...not encouraging at all...Thus, call for the revision

If this estimate is not encouraging, I wonder what will be encouraging enough.

Anyway, let is fall small sha, let me enter at right issue price.

veecovee:
transcorp is not bad it has N55bln capitalization. The only thing is that transcorp price can hardly rise to N20 where it belongs, due to the 40bln outstanding shares. However, we can be making our money as it goes up to N2 or thereabout, and still get down, to patiently buy lower.

I don't understand what you mean by "where it belongs @ 20". If it's OS was 5bln, then the price might be at 20 to match the company's valuation. The reason large OS is an issue for investors is a different problem entirely. If you really believe a stock will do well, you will put your monies worth on it, irrespective of the OS.

Illiquidity on the other hand is a big deal. Nobody wants to carry last in NSE again.

I'm open to diverse opinions.

Investnow2017:
ILLIQUID

The opposite of this is why transcorp is supposedly a bad buy.

This has 3 billion OS and it's bad. Transcorp has 40 billion and it's also bad. What then is the ideal OS we should be looking for?

With a risk of sounding like a monkey hunter.

What exactly is wrong with Caverton. I have looked at the indicators of a good buy and in my opinion the stock might not be perfect but it's solid. I know it is one of the stocks that has been dismissed here previously, but looking at the financials I don't see the reason it has so much negativity.

If any body can throw more light on its issues, it will be appreciated.

fxuser:
Nice one
i'm a fan of 52 week breakouts, they give birth to more 52 wk brks

Word! No time to catch falling knife.

Dangote sugar is something else.

pluto09:
Do you think there is any stock on the NSE that can meet all of the CANSLIM

Quite a lot actually. I reviewed a few stocks I've been eyeing and they are good to go by 5 out of the 7 points.
Most importantly it also gave me an idea of why most insurance stocks don't do well. Most fail 7 over 7.

Abeg let's give the guy a break. This is one of the best discussions that has been put up for any stock. Whether the market bows to his analysis or does otherwise, we have to encourage discussions here.

Not every time monkey hunting.

wanaj0:
So if you are buying Caverton, in addition to numbers, use Porter's Five Forces to analyse the industry.

When you see your Oga, you will know! Some jargons can't be hidden. I'm still learning how best to use my work experience to aid me in making trading decisions.
Thanks for suggesting the model.

mercylicious234:
That coy has been consistent in paying dividend.
Learn Africa is former longman publishing. They base on educational books and books sell most in first term. The coy should be able to do more than it is doing if not for piracy. 80% of their books sold are pirated copies and the company is doing nothing to fight pirates.

The more reason it looks like a sink.

Intendy:
LEARN AFRICA PLC

Closure of Register for Year Ended 31 December 2016

Proposed Dividend 10 Kobo per share

Proposed Bonus Nil

Closure Date 12th - 16h June 2017

AGM Date 5th July 2017

Payment Date 7th July 2017

AGM Venue Company Premises, 52 Oba Akran Avenue, Ikeja Lagos

This company looks like sink to me. Their building on Oba Akran is a write off, the company's website is also a write off. Always reminds me of the company I heard that didn't have physical address yet was flying in NSE during 2007 era.

paschu:
Little girl, mind how you talk on a public forum.

Now go back to the original post and read the fine lines of that email.

And don't quote me again.

Old man stop being stupid. The news is not even new anymore.

paschu:
There is a lot of big deal there, or did you not see the exemption notice?

If the government LACKS the capacity to implement the so called cashless policy in its own revenue generating agencies, then it lacks moral authority to EXTORT prople in the name of that same policy it fails to keep.

Why enforce cashless policy when the larger soceity is still unable to access the infastructure?

Rather than steal from private businesses and individual, the government should rather compel the banks to develop a sales funnel that moves its customers from cash to cashless transactions through well structured, monitored and super effective customer education and incentives.

The banks are just so disgustingly inept. But this anti-people government is taking the ineptitude of the banks to a new level.

Abeg which official and legal thing did you pay to any government agency with cash? They ALL collect either draft or send you their account number to pay in. Be paying bribe and be thinking you are paying to govt revenue agency. #smh

cooldood:
Dont bother your head too much. I had #1.3m cash on friday to deposit in the bank and I simply split it into #400k in 3 places and another 100k.if they want to make it cumulative, then I'd simply pay into separate accounts with 2 or 3 banks.they think they're wise abi, we'd let them know we are equally as smart. The trade off is you now need to fill more tellers instead of just one. The choice is yours-either you pay their charges (which wud av been like #26,000 in my own case) or fill more tellers.

Lol. You didn't read that it will start taking effect from 1st of April in certain states?

When the policy starts taking effect, try the first drama you wrote there if you won't get charged. Go and open a corporate account to be doing your millions with.

A lot of big traders in the market collect mobile transfer. They don't like POS and no time to be carrying 2million naira cash around.

holm:
Warren Buffett on investor value add: "In 60 years of investing, we've found it practically useless to give advice to anyone."

My motto

currentprice:
my brother,,,,,my baby look after you travellers,, provides food and hospitality when u enter plane either local or international airlines

That's a big market. I will try and find more about it.

It's sister pls

Please what does Air Service do exactly. I cant seem to find info about it on Google.

SamuelSNR:
She is not throwing good money away. Fidelity bank is fundamentally sound, and one of consistent dividend paying stocks. Her plan is to hold the stock for a long period and averaging down is not a bad strategy for her. The stock is heavily undervalued and accumulating more units at a lower price makes sense. She has more to benefit from averaging down close to its 52-week low price than holding the stock if the stock price rebounds to N1 (the price she originally bought it).

From experience I know that 52 weeks low is a trap. Some stocks experience lower lows. I'm not saying fidelity is a bad stock, I'm just saying no need to increase your position on a bad trade what you do instead is to buy more when it's in your favour. Just put some risk planning into it as na only God fit predict future. Everybody enters bad trades, it's how you manage it that makes one still have a shirt on their backs by the end of the day.

SamuelSNR:
Don't sell it now. It will end up a waste of good money, if you do. Buy more units at 0.80 or below to average down equal to its current price. You are advised to average down before a dividend is declared.

Reasons
1. Fidelity Bank's Q3 result is OK.
2. Fidelity Bank is undervalued, and from Q3 result calculation, its real worth is more than N4.
3. Fidelity Bank has been paying uninterrupted dividends for more than nine years, and this year won't be an exception. You might earn fine money especially if your units are huge.
4. There is possibility the price might hit N1 and above days after a dividend is declared for the 2016 accounting year. At this stage, you can decide whether to sell or hold. This is a speculative suggestion, please. You're advised to use your discretion to make your decision.

Why do we keep trying to catch a falling knife? There is a position call HOLD we don't have to do anything sometimes.

I like your reasons though. If she has a set target not more than 20% in the short term, all she has to do is wait.

joseph1013:
A float has never been the solution to all economic problems for those that have floated. It is usually the first of the many steps to savage a bad situation. When you leave the currency to market forces, you are telling foreign investors that they can come to make investments and be sure that they will have a level playing field to make things happen. That's what Egypt has done (and in my estimation a little too late). It will be tough at the beginning but things will calm down and they will reap the rewards. I can show you reports of how things are presently looking good for Egypt. Bubu is saying he will not kill the naira by floating, not knowing that he is already killing the naira by his ill-advised policies. SMH

I see naive Nigerians praising the reserves going up to $30.5bn. LOL. Makes no difference. You have money yet the CBN cannot fund Interbank market. That's like taking your rent of N30,000, putting it in a bank and saying you have savings of N30,000. Yes its savings...but to what purpose? It's like stockpiling and showcasing a full yam barn and poultry while your children are afflicted with kwashiokor.

I can see that your solution to the fx problem is to sever ties with the western countries...When you're not China. What an approach. Good luck with that.

Lol. Oga take it easy no body is fighting with you.

fxuser:
Nice one.
I'm very neutral on both perspectives. I hold no strong views on what will work or not.
I simply adjust to realities as they occur and change.
If the economy for some reason decides to float , i will adjust my books to be slightly bullish. (PLS i don't mean float is d answer)
If the economy maintains stauts quo , i will stay on the side of caution (the index is proof of the bleeding)
If they try some things else like ''Asia Tiger model'' , we would adjust our expectations accordingly
Our common goal here is to make good returns on investment , reduce risk and trade better for the long run.

For more on Egypt:
Egyptian pound strengthens as foreign investors return
http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFL5N1FU68H

Egypt's fuel subsidy bill jumps after currency float
http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFC6N1BK020

Remittances from expatriate Egyptians rise after pound float
http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFL5N1FR4EO

Egypt's foreign currency inflows rise, investors still need reassurance
http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFL5N1FM576

I'm totally with you on the fact that a change is needed rather than just remain status quo.

Generally I'm not comfortable with the conclusion that more remittance is better for the country as a whole. In reality it just ends up widening the gap between the rich and the poor. But that's a conversation for another day.

Our solution is to have a lot of economic and legislative reforms that will make trading with the Naira attractive to foreign investors. This just reminds me of FG raising USD bonds and clapping for themselves that it was over subscribed forgetting that they will payback that money in a currency they have no control over. Not to talk of the fact that most of the money will be sent back abroad by our executive thieves. Honestly this country tire me.

fxuser:
In other news

'' The benchmark EGX 30 Index has surged 55 percent since the currency float in local currency terms. ''

link
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-08/inflows-inflation-and-imf-egypt-s-economic-overhaul-in-charts?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Just imagine this Emefiele allows d currency to just find its level . . .

I am a big admirer to your work but sadly I don't agree with you. Egypt is not better off because of the float.

Taking a look at the article.
Yes, foreign investors came in and bought tbills.
The EGX 30 has surged 55 percent
Loans and aids from imf and foreign governments increased

But on the other hand all the above doesn't do anything for the average Egyptian. Leave foreign media to portray themselves as the saviour of the world
From same article.

They floated the EGP and it hit 18/usd. However since float the thing has not fallen instead expected to rally about 7 percent.

Inflation rose fast to 25.86percent. Showing no signs of recovery. Putting pressure on households which are generally on the poverty line.

Non-Oil business has refused to show any growth instead it is contracting. IMF pointed this as what will lift the country out of its recession, the same IMF that gave them 12billion dollars loan o. Now the miracle sector has since refused to pick up.

Honestly, I don't agree the float is the solution to our problem as the common Egyptian man has since realised and you can check their own media for proof of how bad some things have gone.

The solution to our problem is to do what the Asian Tigers did. Already from the brexit and trump's election, you will see that western governments are now thinking more of Me against others. They are cutting ties and reducing allegiances but western media wants us to believe they want to dash us aid.

Drops Mic.

I don't usually like this kind of threads. It attracts silliness but as a fellow Uniben alumna I will advice you to first put the money in 6 months tbills.

While the money is out of your hands use the 6 months to learn what ever idea that you fancy. From farming to trading, there is no business without it's trade secret that you won't have to learn and understudy someone. If the money is in your hand during the learning period you will be in too much hurry to enter the next best thing that is introduced to you and I can promise you that if you do that you and your money will soon be departed.