₦airaland Forum

Oga coldFLARES1, thank you for your post above. Honestly, I appreciate where the long term investors vs speculators stand etc. There are somethings which I reckon many do not take into consideration though, namely loss aversion and the fact that every stock is on a random walk! The past performance of a stock is no indicator of its future performance. At the end of the day everyone is responsible for his/her own portfolio. This all started with UBA results last week, the purpose of this forum is to alert us, many try to do so with facts and information. They are appreciated. Others use a sprinkling of faith and hope which honestly, doesn't always cut it.

soloniger:
they want you to sell to they now and buy higher later from them

Here we go again, our fellow Nigerians with their conspiracy theories Two weeks ago it was that some folks here "were spreading panic alarm across investors with the aim of crashing the system in order for them to start buying at 50k"

Thank you everyone. I now know why people hold on to positions with capital losses. Loss aversion things (Daniel Kahneman) .

Moneysage:
@oga mi PW: Biko what's "market noise"? Kindly paste any web link that has that phrase.
#I like to learn from co-elders
#grabs dictionary
@currentprice: are you for real? You mean you did that? Like seriously

The sage, na im be wetin dey happen to Cutix at the minute (just kidding o, see link)
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/noise.asp

kotlass:
Concerning this mentality/ideology, if you consider that there are short term investors (your own case is chronic though ) and long term investors it will help better. Some long term investors probably look at quotes seasonally. Chronic ones come back after 7yrs (na joke o ). I remember the dude who bought NB many years back at about N3x. He just bumped into the forum and asked about the price of the stock. I just hope to God that he didn't lose his mind when the value of his holding was calculated. He has not visited since then. Anyone remember this guy?

Bros, we are making money this year. Faster rate things abeg. Watch out!

Agbalowomeri:
So bros in 2007/8 who could have confidently say gtb would be back at 14? The point is your strategy holds for a trader. I trade sometimes but that is not a comfortable zone for me. For example I did some kalokalo in oando and transcorp. After harvesting my loot, I looked for a stock where could I empty my loot and sleep well at night even if the price crash. Of course, part of my consideration was a stock that would be difficult to crash. So I chose one stock and empty my portfolio into it gradually. Even as the price is going down I am not shaken because I know huge dividend awaits.

Sir, any stock can return to car park oo. We should ALWAYS remember that past performance is No guarantee of future results. I see your point though. Diff strokes for diff folks. Respect.

Agbalowomeri:
Those wey dey ban me because I dey express my love to Mercy in this hard times, una well done o
#PW

Chai, dis PW guy eye don see ooo! Abeg Mr Mod come and answer your fathers name ooo!

#MrKnowitall
#davide470

Agbalowomeri:
Bros I bought gtb at 33 sometimes in 2008, it came all the down to 13 or thereabout but I did not sell until it came up to around 30 this year. With all the bonus and dividend, I still got out at handsome profit. If I sold at 13, then I would have made losses

Good example Sir. With a 10% stop loss, you would have sold at N30. If you are then able to get back in at 14, 15 or even 20, when the retracement started your handsome profit, would have been much more handsome with all the bonus and dividend to wit. I am not asking anyone to sell, hold or buy. I just want to learn more about this paper loss mentality.

carpenter:
You have not lost unless you sell, if I were you, I would buy more. Also chase down your dividends and bonus over the years.

I really do not understand this "paper loss" thing. The Ogbeni bought FBNH at N33 about 7 years ago. It is below N12 now. When will it be a loss? If he asked when it was N28, or last November when FBNH was N17, or last Sept when it was N15, I am sure you would have said the same thing. I do not see the capitalisation of FBNH at N1 trillion anytime soon, so chances he will get back his N33 per share will not be anytime soon (assuming the bonus and dividends will be counted as profit over the 7 year period). Honestly, I am not being sarcastic, I just want to understand this school of thought that believes you have not lost till you sell. It negates the idea of stop losses, and allows a small loss to grow into a huge one.

UNLEASHED:

Hi everyone, I bought Firstbank shares worth a little bit over 500k at NGN33/unit when it went public in 2007 with the aim of leaving it long term, I really don't know much about stocks just that the fund was idle at that time, hence the motive to invest in shares. Most times I even forget I've got some shares somewhere. I just checked on NSE and FBN shares is 11.30 If I'm right? Does that mean I'm at loss? What are my chances of making profit in the long term considering the fact that I bought the shares 7 years ago.

Where is Pa Ewumi when you need him? Bros, sorry ooo as regards the bolded... Can you wait for 7 more years?

Born2berich:
Very correct but many of them will not be able to do so as they are currently and hugely trapped.
I call it #Restricted dynamism

passwelle:
I am not trying to create any panic but then what if this persists and your portfolio goes red further? Remember there's a reason why stop losses exist to "cut your losses short and let your winners run". http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/capital-losses.asp

"Often you just have to bite the bullet and sell your stock at a loss before those losses get bigger. The first thing to understand is that hope is not a strategy. An investor has to have a logical reason to hold a losing position. The second point is, what you paid for a stock is irrelevant to its future direction."

Above quote is from the link above. Folks hold on to losing positions because others embolden them with messages of goodwill and encouragement, reassuring them it is only a paper loss . Biko, set a stop loss at or about the daily maximum a stock can gain on the NSE. Chikena.

Yem0350:
I noticed on friday dat Morgan charged me #4.02 for trade alert. Pls, is it applicable to other house?

Sir, Morgan charges you only 0.25% brokerage fees. The NSE and SEC charge everything else.

Hahahaha, I swear this result funny! Dexter where you dey
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/7915_JAPAUL_PLC_Q3_SEPT_2014_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2014.pdf

But FCMB market maker eyes dey see ooo! Chai, how do you keep a stock above a benchmark when nobody except you wants to pay that price for it!

Born2berich:
This person wicked. See consolidated hallmark were i wan sell na im the person dey buy only N10 worth. Chiaaaaa SMH

Mehn, NSE cowboys mehn, I dont understand whats happening to Link Assure. I noticed ur 20m trade of conolidated hallmark has been executed today as usual.

Abeg, na who dey buy 10 naira shares?

Transcorp at sub NGN4

I swear, my eyes cant be deceiving me. What is happening with linkassure? Serious offer in pre market nd now its on bid !

That Linkassure monkey hunter go mop up today mehn! Kilode, 291 m units on offer !

Aks:
Skye Bank Plc successfully paid their balance of 80% due on Friday and that the money has hit AMCON's account at FBN. #Kudos http://www.proshareng.com/news/24922.html

If the funding sources includes the current year profit, it wont be funny as all those expecting dividend yield for all the mopping up and tranche buying they have done are on a long thing.

Aks:
UBA is the worst hit of all bank, do u agree?

I hate to say I told you so .. But, I told you so.

duni04:
Abeg is there something about NASCON I don't know about?

Aside of the lacklustre Q3 result, some reports were on SMN about their inability to fund the payment of their 2013 dividend in full.

See link below. Anyone think this may be part of whats influencing the Insurance sector? As it was only NSE Insurance Index that appreciated last week.
http://investadvocate.com.ng/index.php/component/tags/tag/2635-standard-organisation-of-nigeria

Chibuking81:
Share price will still fall this month of November including the month of December, for those who care to know, Pls don't let anyone deceive you in any way.

I concur. The bearish trend on the NSE doesn't seem like it will abate soon, not withstanding the brief respite we observed in the week that ended on the 24th of Oct. The bourse shed 140 billion yesterday alone, and in the month of October (btw 26th of September and yesterday) the market capitalization of the NSE shed 1 trillion naira from N13.478 trillion to N12.437 trillion. I am eagerly waiting for the Domestic and FPI Report for Sept. With almost all stocks on offer yesterday, despite impressive albeit unaudited results, I personally activated a few stop losses this week. While I made a grand entrance into Oxygen yesterday. I am grateful to FCMB and their market makers sha.

Dragonking:
has this stock traded above the N100 mark for up to 6months? mago mago for this our NSE eh!

9free:
My brother, na Cowboyism be the order of the day for NSE.......

Apparently, the rule says it will be eligible if it has traded above N100 in 4 out of the last 6 months.

funkystanl:
Thanks passwelle and excellent7 and for all others with your disclosures.
Good to be here. Please am relatively new to stockbroking investment and seeing some words that i do not know. Can anyone explain wht "JIJO" and "monkeys" mean. #justcurious Thanks guys!

JIJO = Jump in jump out. Short term trades by speculators.
The link below explains the "monkeys". I like the moral and I quote "If you are going to be a fool and pay absurd prices because you think that a greater fool will appear in the future, make sure you buy a goat and not a monkey."
http://www.wanderings.net/notebook/Main/HowStockMarketWorksMonkeysAndGoats

Born2berich:
You are really trying. I just wonder what took you eyes to linkassurance. There are some stocks i dont even look at anymore.

Just ticker watching mehn, looking out for the anomalous trades . Stock in question was on offer the better part of the year, closing yesterday with 17.7m units on offer. Then it trades 41m units, with all of them on the open market and ends on bid. That is anomalous.

stokfrick:
can smbdy tell why wema bank is delaying their results?

Which result? Q3 2014? That was released abt 2 weeks ago Sir. Where u dey since?

Born2berich:
Abeg tell that person to also assist me buy buying my multiverse, UNIC, guinea, Standard assurance, hallmark, IAI shares biko

Mehn, every stock has its day bro! Its even more interesting because these are not being crossed, unlike hallmark lately. Who are Prudential Life partnering with in Nigeria again? This is serious o, Dude just updated his bid with 5m more units