Don't mind him some of us our BREAK EVEN PRICE is still below N15.14k if we don't see VALUE we would have sold our GUINNESS between N16:00 & N16.40 few weeks ago.
Like I said earlier WATCH OUT how the management will MOP UP the share price before their AGM meeting if not chairs will fly at the venue
Wema Bank’s profit after tax (PAT) declined by 33.53 per cent to N1.49 billion in the first six months of the year, compared to N2.25 billion it made in H1’19. Its profit before tax (PBT) also fell 33.75 per cent to N1.73 billion in H1 2020.
ositadima1: Ok, here is my attempt at applying the Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method to Guiness Nigeria PLC.
I pulled their annual reports from 2010 to 2019 and this is what i saw:
Sales (revenue): YoY growth for the last 9 years: 2.07% rate per period of annuity. EPS: YoY growth for the last 9 years: -13.59% rate per period of annuity Equity: YoY growth for the last 9 years: 11.22% rate per period of annuity Free Cash Flow: YoY growth for the last 9 years: -19.98% rate per period of annuity
***Mr Phil Town wouldn't touch this stock with a long stick at this junction.***
Next, Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation
1.) Assuming 5% growth and 15% (I used 15 to sufficiently cover MoS, marging of safety) YoY desired rate of return projected for the next 10 years, then buy price would be pegged at not more than 14.49 per share.
2.) Assuming 11.22% growth (Equity did 11.22% YoY in the last 9 years) and 15% YoY desired rate of return projected for the next 10 years, then buy price would be pegged at not more than 21.54 per share.
There is also another way of making the valuation as detailed in Rule One Investing book, i will try that later.
If you put such EFFORT in doing DANGCEM VALUATION you will DISCOVER that it doesn't WORTH N50.
In 2007 DANGOTE bought BENUE CEMENT that was trading at N4 did his ABRACADABRA, renamed it DANGOTE CEMENT and enlisted @ N135 per share.
10years down the lane DANGCEM is still trading at circa N135 couple with countless DEVALUATIONS that has taken place within that period.
CAN'T you SEE that ALHAJI is playing TABLE TENNIS with his SHARESHOLDERS DESTINY
PETERiCHY: We KNEW where this MERRY-GO-ROUND BUS was HEADING to and alerted BARGAIN HUNTERS to alight on time when it was still traded at circa N8--N9.
For those that missed the last JOLLY RIDE our next POINT of ENTRY is circa N3
BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE or GET BURNT!
*ThE OcToPuS*
UACN now at N5.95 50% DISCOUNT from this POINT then we are GOOD to GO.
Mcy56: #50? Now this is monkey hunting. If you say 20 for now, it's understandable. We don't know if this is short rally, the direction is not yet very clear.
Anyway, Guinness reversed, NB likely going to do same. Expect INTBREW to follow them in the rally.
The pharmaceuticals too are doing well so far.
Caveat: Not any form of advice. Just observation.
GUINNESS FINANCIAL YEAR END is June 30th unlike Nigerian Brewery and International Brewery that theirs are December 31st.
GUINNESS FULL YEAR result will be PUBLISHED by MONTH END between 27th/28th August 2020.
This YEAR being their 70th ANNIVERSARY in Nigeria the SIGNS are GLARING that we should EXPECT a BUMPER HARVEST.
Mcy56: Lol. I expected this type of comment, that's why I didn't comment earlier when I saw the result. Bros Peteru, once you sight JB at 15, start picking, the result has been somehow priced in. JB, like any other coy is not immune to int'l and economic happenings, the coy will still recover and I can remember saying JB is for long termers/dividend hunters, not for jijoists.
Yes JB may start recovering by mid next year when their bonus shares would have been priced in and cure for Covid 19 found
Before then a lot of water would have passed under the water and Mr. MARKET will be begging BARGAIN HUNTERS to buy at circa N9.
Mcy56: Lol. I was able to drag you out eventually. Well, concerning FO, you were well aware of the stories behind it around that time........the financials, the % taking over by Ignite and premium payment of N66.25, and all those stories. When it didn't materialize per expectations, I was bold to mention here that I sold my stake already......few people were aware of this as well. I expect anyone buying any stock to carry out due diligence and be responsible for their actions as well. As for JB, my mention of it was not for anyone to buy/sell, whosoever take any action does so purely at his/her discretion, no one should mention me if it goes sideways.......but if we see value in a stock we may still mention it here.......but if you don't want, we keep our opinions to ourself.
Hope you've sold your JB or are you waiting till it gets to sub N10
Earlier this year when USD was still trading at N365 we adviced BARGAIN HUNTERS to put their LIFE SAVINGS in USD but someone said they don't spent dollar in Nigeria now the stage is set for a replay of 2016