₦airaland Forum

ojeysky:
50% profit after 4 years....hmmm okay.

From circa N150 to N350 is about 115% profit

ojeysky:
How, was seplat at below 200 at any point,.... Perhaps you meant +50 naira...... Enjoy your loot and for Guinness, drink responsibly

SEPLAT was selling at circa N150 in Jan 2016

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

ositadima1:
Ok, here is my attempt at applying the Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method to Guiness Nigeria PLC.

I pulled their annual reports from 2010 to 2019 and this is what i saw:

Sales (revenue): YoY growth for the last 9 years: 2.07% rate per period of annuity.
EPS: YoY growth for the last 9 years: -13.59% rate per period of annuity
Equity: YoY growth for the last 9 years: 11.22% rate per period of annuity
Free Cash Flow: YoY growth for the last 9 years: -19.98% rate per period of annuity

***Mr Phil Town wouldn't touch this stock with a long stick at this junction.***

Next, Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation

1.) Assuming 5% growth and 15% (I used 15 to sufficiently cover MoS, marging of safety) YoY desired rate of return projected for the next 10 years, then buy price would be pegged at not more than 14.49 per share.

2.) Assuming 11.22% growth (Equity did 11.22% YoY in the last 9 years) and 15% YoY desired rate of return projected for the next 10 years, then buy price would be pegged at not more than 21.54 per share.

There is also another way of making the valuation as detailed in Rule One Investing book, i will try that later.

If you put such EFFORT in doing DANGCEM VALUATION you will DISCOVER that it doesn't WORTH N50.

In 2007 DANGOTE bought BENUE CEMENT that was trading at N4 did his ABRACADABRA, renamed it DANGOTE CEMENT and enlisted @ N135 per share.

10years down the lane DANGCEM is still trading at circa N135 couple with countless DEVALUATIONS that has taken place within that period.

CAN'T you SEE that ALHAJI is playing TABLE TENNIS with his SHARESHOLDERS DESTINY


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

PETERiCHY:
We KNEW where this MERRY-GO-ROUND BUS was HEADING to and alerted BARGAIN HUNTERS to alight on time when it was still traded at circa N8--N9.

For those that missed the last JOLLY RIDE our next POINT of ENTRY is circa N3

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE or GET BURNT!

*ThE OcToPuS*

UACN now at N5.95
50% DISCOUNT from this POINT then we are GOOD to GO.

PATIENCE is KEY

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Mcy56:
#50? Now this is monkey hunting.
If you say 20 for now, it's understandable. We don't know if this is short rally, the direction is not yet very clear.

Anyway, Guinness reversed, NB likely going to do same. Expect INTBREW to follow them in the rally.

The pharmaceuticals too are doing well so far.

Caveat: Not any form of advice. Just observation.

GUINNESS FINANCIAL YEAR END is June 30th unlike Nigerian Brewery and International Brewery that theirs are December 31st.

GUINNESS FULL YEAR result will be PUBLISHED by MONTH END between 27th/28th August 2020.

This YEAR being their 70th ANNIVERSARY in Nigeria the SIGNS are GLARING that we should EXPECT a BUMPER HARVEST.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

*ThE OcToPuS*

PETERiCHY:
Based on GUINNESS Q3 2020 results

BOOK VALUE is N40
RETAINED EARNINGS is N20
SHARE PRICE is N13
BRENT PRICE is $45

BARGAIN HUNTERS WHAT ELSE ARE YOU WAITING FOR

For the DOUBTING THOMAS this your last OPPORTUNITY to join our MOVING TRAIN else you MEET us at #50 JUNCTION

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Based on GUINNESS Q3 2020 results

BOOK VALUE is N40
RETAINED EARNINGS is N20
SHARE PRICE is N13
BRENT PRICE is $45

BARGAIN HUNTERS WHAT ELSE ARE YOU WAITING FOR

PETERiCHY:
Fear ANYTHING that involves TINUBU

OANDO format was CONOCOPHILLIPS

UACN format was UNBUNDLING

Same SCAMMERS different FORMATS

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

We KNEW where this MERRY-GO-ROUND BUS was HEADING to and alerted BARGAIN HUNTERS to alight on time when it was still traded at circa N8--N9.

For those that missed the last JOLLY RIDE our next POINT of ENTRY is circa N3

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE or GET BURNT!

*ThE OcToPuS*

Darasimis:
Goody morning experts in the house,

Is it advisable to buy Seplat now?

Patiently wait for SEPLAT at sub N150 unless you want to lose your money

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Intendy:
Stocks with new 52 week lows

Guinness #13.75k

International brew #3.35k

CAP plc #17.10k

Berger paints #5.50k

Seplat #312.70k

Mansard #1.44k

SEPLAT gradually coming to our N150 junction.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Mcy56:
Lol. I expected this type of comment, that's why I didn't comment earlier when I saw the result.
Bros Peteru, once you sight JB at 15, start picking, the result has been somehow priced in.
JB, like any other coy is not immune to int'l and economic happenings, the coy will still recover and I can remember saying JB is for long termers/dividend hunters, not for jijoists.

Yes JB may start recovering by mid next year when their bonus shares would have been priced in and cure for Covid 19 found

Before then a lot of water would have passed under the water and Mr. MARKET will be begging BARGAIN HUNTERS to buy at circa N9.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE.

Mcy56:
Lol. I was able to drag you out eventually.
Well, concerning FO, you were well aware of the stories behind it around that time........the financials, the % taking over by Ignite and premium payment of N66.25, and all those stories.
When it didn't materialize per expectations, I was bold to mention here that I sold my stake already......few people were aware of this as well.
I expect anyone buying any stock to carry out due diligence and be responsible for their actions as well.
As for JB, my mention of it was not for anyone to buy/sell, whosoever take any action does so purely at his/her discretion, no one should mention me if it goes sideways.......but if we see value in a stock we may still mention it here.......but if you don't want, we keep our opinions to ourself.

Hope you've sold your JB or are you waiting till it gets to sub N10

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

PETERiCHY:
Fear ANYTHING that involves TINUBU

OANDO format was CONOCOPHILLIPS

UACN format was UNBUNDLING

Same SCAMMERS different FORMATS

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

UACN on FULL OFFER at N6.60K

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Mcy56:
E Ku Market o.
Peterichy, JB is on full bid......is there no share dilution again or I'm too fast to make this call?

Hope all is well with dangcem Q2.......I can't bother myself to open it, dang faithful should summarize it for us.....

BARGAIN HUNTERS don't mind her
when JB fall it will fall below N10
Sameway she was propagating FO.

Today where is FO

OBAGADAFFI:
$1 = N475

Very soon

$1 = N500

Earlier this year when USD was still trading at N365 we adviced BARGAIN HUNTERS to put their LIFE SAVINGS in USD but someone said they don't spent dollar in Nigeria now the stage is set for a replay of 2016

First port of call is N520 per USD

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

talk2me2:
What does that suggest? Unbundling in view

Yes but the UACN UNBUNDLING will take place next year along with the release of their 2020 FY RESULT all thanks to Covid-19.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE

The way NSEMPA now view thread

Let's EXPECT an AUGUST visitor

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

bigjay01:
Check well o. They collected their 10% WHT from mine

You are right
Atimes too much jijo dey make person confuse issue

I was actually left with 280k units on markdown date but thought it was 250k.

Since they paid 10koboi i got dividend of N25,200k which means 10% withholding tax was deducted

The way we now view thread
GOD dey oooo

PETERiCHY:
Join us on YouTube for the

2020 UACN ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING via the link below and as well ask questions



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PakITevr8Mk

UACN dividend just landed 3.17pm no withholding tax on mine.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE

PETERiCHY:
Join us on YouTube for the

2020 UACN ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING via the link below and as well ask questions



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PakITevr8Mk

UACN AGM meeting just ended few mins ago without mention of the UNBUNDLING EXERCISE.

The management are bunch of crooks just like their mentor WALE of OANDO.

N4 Loading......

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Join us on YouTube for the

2020 UACN ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING via the link below and as well ask questions



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PakITevr8Mk

IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEW CBN POLICY OF GSI

The CBN yesterday released a new policy called GSI (Global Standing Instruction). The policy is a very welcome policy. Below, i try to summarize the major points of the policy.

1. It applies to all financial institutions in the country.



2. If you take a loan in any bank (say GTB) and you refuse to pay back, we would look for any other bank(s) in the country (say Access bank, and Sterling bank) where you have accounts and there is money, we would take the money from those accounts and pay GTB back.
E.g you take 30k Loan from GTB and you fail to pay back. You have 10k in your Access bank account, 15k in your Sterling bank joint account with your wife and 8k in your child's First bank account that you help her manage (because she is still a minor). We would sweep the 15k in your Sterling bank joint account with your wife, sweep the 10k in your Access Bank, and take 5k out of the 8k you have in your child's First Bank account. We would send them all to GTB. The remaining 3k in your child's First Bank account would not be touched. That's a promise. ��

3. Even if its a joint account that your BVN is found on, money would be moved from there!

4. If we find out that you have an account that we should have moved money from but you have done chua-chua to not put your bvn on that account, then your BVN would be watchlisted. My brother, that is a major gbege! You are finished!

5. Only principal and interest would be swept from your other accounts. Penalty charges would not be included. CBN don try for us o. ��

6. If a bank wrongfully activates GSI on you (you have not defaulted on your loan and they go make the system sweep from your other accounts) , the bank would pay a fine of 500k sharparly. No begging.

7. If you complain about a wrongful activation of GSI on your accounts, and the bank claims you are wrong, you then decide to request for arbitration. If the arbiter rules that you are correct, then the bank pays a fine of 10M. No story!

The GSI becomes effective from August 1st 2020.

This helps the system to fight serial loan defaulters and allows banks to more readily give out loans. As a matter of fact, a bank can now choose to give you a loan without you previously having an account with the bank.

https://www.proshareng.com/news/Debtors---Recovery/CBN-Issues-Operational-Guidelines-On-GSI/52210

This a new dawn and welcome development.

LETS KNOW OUR NETWORTH

Heavy CROSS DEAL going on in MTN

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Mcy56:
Lol.
JB is solid, cant do free fall like Peter's Guinness. To me, getting it cheaper at 15 or thereabout is a plus.

SHARE DILUTION made GUINNESS crashed from their N58 right issue price in 2017 to current price of N14.

SHARE DILUTION that made WAPCO crashed from N42.50k right issue price in 2017 to sub N9:00k

SHARE DILUTION made CILEASING crashed from N8 last yr to N3 and still counting.

Now watch how SHARE DILUTION will crash JULIUS BERGER to sub N10 before any MEANINGFUL CONSOLIDATION will take place..

Still on accumulation mode on GUINNESS

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

locodemy:
During the consolidations that lasted for almost two weeks,what volume of Sterling bank was traded?

For it to break out,it needs to consolidate at a lower price and this 1.12 look very attractive.I expect stcool to buy more now.The bull will pick Sterling along.

There are still some OVERHEAD to be cleared in order words STERLINGBANK is a BARGAIN at sub N1.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

stcool:
Same stock I have been loading below N1.25 closed at 1.37 today

...but we not selling soon until above N2.00

If it falls further we load more...many here don't invest but chat 365days a year

Peter your Guinness is now N14!!! Should we wait more drop or load more

Someone should please check on stcool and ask who he OFFEND.

Why is it that all the stocks he RECENTLY bought has FALLEN like an old woman BREAST

From FIDELITYBK to UACN to ZENITHBK to JAPAUL to GUINNESS down to STERLINGBANK.

He BETTER go and APPEASE the gods

NSEMPA mode rightnow
May God give us the FORTITUDE to bear the PAPER LOSS.

That been said let's EXPECT an OASIS from now till July 10th.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

stcool:
Same stock I have been loading below N1.25 closed at 1.37 today

...but we not selling soon until above N2.00

If it falls further we load more...many here don't invest but chat 365days a year

Peter your Guinness is now N14!!! Should we wait more drop or load more

CSL TARGET PRICE for GUINNESS is N15 which means the Price to sell s

So let wait for GUINNESS at circa N10
Above all the management already issued a PROFIT WARNING against their 2019)2020 F/Y RESULT that will be released in AUGUST!

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

FINALLY we are in JULY the month of CELEBRATION

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

NSEMPA mood rightnow

PETERiCHY:
Like we said earlier in the month MARKET will TANK till June 28th then we should EXPECT an OASIS starting from June 29th till July 10th. afterwards MARKET CORRECTION will take place based on Q2 RESULTS

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

BREAKING!!!!!

ABUJA: The Federal Government has extended the Phase Two of the eased lockdown by four weeks, but partially lifted the ban on interstate movement.

Chairman of the Presidential Taskforce PTF on Covid-19 and Secretary to the Government of the Federation SGF, Mr Boss Mustapha disclosed this at a briefing Monday in Abuja.

He said within this extended phase, there will also be a safe re-opening of schools to allow graduating students back to classes, while interstate movements would only take place outside curfew hours.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/06/breaking-covid-19-fg-lifts-interstate-travel-ban-set-to-reopen-schools-2/

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE

*ThE OcToPuS*