₦airaland Forum

This misplaced Boer anger really should be re-dericted to ANC and the blacks in south africa.
Those are the people you reckon are responsible for this sacrilegious mess.

You're looking for some odd prediction or projections.
1st projections or prediction are incredibly hard things to do.
Whoever did that prediction -pwc - must be hidding now - seeing how South Africa has totally collapsed the last 12yrs.

Now let look at medium term prediction.
This you can find in South Africa Treasury data
And you can also find in Kenya Treasury data.

Medium is the next 5yrs.

Without checking data - Kenya will be 200B economy.

South Africa from your own treasury data - will be at 400B.

And it's called the middle class rut or trap. You hit it in 2010.

Some of us were here in 2016 when Obaboon was claiming kenya 60B budget was over-estimated and should be 30B

Now we are almost 120B - and he has learnt to shut up.

jl115:
Are you ret@rded? I said show me a projection from a legitimate institution not thumb suck figures.... Now go or stfu

The angry hunter Boer
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-06/surprise-growth-makes-south-africa-s-economy-bigger-than-before-pandemic-struck?leadSource=uverify%20wall

South Africa’s economy is bigger than before the coronavirus pandemic struck, after growing faster-than-expected in the third quarter on increased farm output.

Gross domestic product expanded 1.6% in the three months through September, compared with a contraction of 0.7% in the previous quarter, Statistics South Africa said Tuesday in a report released in the capital, Pretoria. The median of 12 economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey was for growth of 0.4%. The economy grew 4.1% from a year earlier.

Full-year growth may also surprise on the upside. The central bank forecasts an expansion of 1.8% and the National Treasury 1.9%. For the nine months through September, an early indicator of where full-year growth may land, GDP grew by 2.3% from last year.

unadjusted real GDP. Now get us real gdp. If we use your logic kenya GDP growth will end the year at 30% - we are already 11% plus 5.5%

Dont hope for another 4% - that was covid recovery from -4 percent.

South Africa Economic Snapshot - OECD
GDP is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2022, 1.1% in 2023, and 1.6% in 2024.
Private consumption and investment will remain the main drivers of growth.

You can predict 0-1% for the next decade like the previous decade.

jl115:
just stfu and read: I was talking year on year

https://www.google.com/amp/s/businesstech.co.za/news/finance/649255/big-surprise-for-south-africas-economy/amp/

Look like Nigeria exported it to Ghana and soon Kenya is joining the list.

. No you dont add up quartely growth
You average out.
South Africa growth this year will be about 1.5%
Kenya had 11% 1st Q, then slowed down to 5.5% in 2nd half; I dont think we have 3rd quarter data yet,
But general projection is around 6-7% - deepening on the 3rd and last q.

South Africa 1st q - 1.9% then slowed down to 0.7% - that averages out to 1.3%. Look like you had 1.6% 3rd q that was released this week. That mean you're doing 1.5%. We will get last Q results somewhere mid feb-march - and we can declare the 2022 growth.

Remember the growth is measured against last year quarterly data - not subsequent quarter. So this 1.6% 3rd quarter is not against 2nd Q but against last year 3rd Q.

jl115:
read the bolded:



FYI it was 1.6% for the quarter not tge year... Learn to understand simple economic terms... Year on year growth is 4. 1%

You have no honour obabboon as person and as region. That is why almost everywhere you have poor reputation. You're pathological liars with no moral compunction. Kenya and kenyans have generally good reputation as hardworking people who follow the law. That is why Dubai excluded kenya from African list of bans and South Africa has allowed visa free entry. If you go to Qatar - the entire airport is run by Kenyans.

Got this from twitter just right now


Njeri Thorne Lovely ��
@NjeriBt
·
11h
Being able to dupe someone has become a virtue in KE. In business dealings, politics, relationships etc.
This was only a thing in Nigeria back in the day.
Today ppl are reading Art of War, 48 laws of power etc and believe being duplicitous is intelligence .

obaaderemi:
Code of Honour, my little Indian. I thought the first one was a mistake. Clearly you are ignorant. Why should we take you seriously?

Explain this tiny image that is barely visible.
And if someone made projection in 2010 without knowing your ship had hit an iceberg, they are now very wrong.
I think South Africa will be where it is in 10yrs. Medium term projection is 0-1% growth for next 5yrs. That takes us to 2028.
I don't see anything that will radically change.
In fact, these days South Africa celebrate 1.5% growth - like this year - with record export earnings from all the minerals.
South Africa been sick economically since 2010 together with Nigeria (2014).
You're likely to regress further than grow - now you have eskom , record unemployment, crime continues to get out of hand.

Kenya GDP will likely triple from 120 to 360B like it has done the last decade. I dont see why not.
Kenya pulled 7.5% recovery from covid last year and will accelerate this year by 6.5% despite being tough year - of drought & election- (already 1st half we had 6% growth - 1st Q was 11%)
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/12/08/kenya-s-economic-recovery-remains-strong-although-slowed-by-drought-and-inflation

And next year 2023 I see growth charging forward.

jl115:
just stfu with your "thumb suck" nonsense and till me where is Kenya in 2050?

All these have been done in Kenya for donkeys' years since 1900. Hemmingways the great American author was in Kenya in 1910s. American president Rossevelt. Churchil. Almost 1/4 the National Geographic shot in kenya. Many hollywood movies shot in kenya.

Kenya or TZ or South Africa or name it - well sold - problem is nobody can afford it except the rich.

Kenya and Africa tourism (leave summer bunnies coming to vist their mother and f.ck your local girlfriend in local lodges) has big problem

It's seen and it is very expensive - and is only for the very rich white or now some asian folks.

Majority of say European tourist - fly to destination costing 50 dollars for flight - mostly within their continent - or to Asia. Thailands and rest of Asia are dirty cheap. North Africa benefit because its near Europe.

South Africa receive 10 million tourist - 8million plus are Africans.

There are only two ways out of this - make Africa a low-cost destinations - and secondly encourage domestic or africa tourism - 50:50 for sustainable industry;

To be low cost we have to borrow from Asians - the Thailands and the rest. We have to open tourist sector for small budget hotels. We also have to work on reducing airline tickets in Africa. It very expensive to fly in Africa - because of taxes, lack of airports and then lack of customers (compound the problem).

Counting summer bunnies as tourism is good feel nonsense.

Flying to Africa has to be fixed. Africa free airspace is start - but there is long way to go. Until it dirty cheap to fly - no tourist will spend 2,000 dollars for air ticket alone - and if they do - it normally a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Flight - and cost of lodges - to stay in many of these lodges cost even 1,000 dollars a night - some animal park entry fees is 200 dollars per person - end of day - it become a product for the rich or those who save for long time - not vacation destination like it is for summer bunnies.

Thailand and rest of south asia - you can get decent places for even 20 dollars a night.

obaaderemi:
You are right. It's the vibe. That's what Kenya is missing. They have great natural sights but they don't know how to make money from them. They just want to leave everything in the hands of foreigners.
Like I opined on the other thread years ago, epic movies and great documentaries can be made in Kenya that could shake up Hollywood but Kenyans don't have the vibe like you said. Nor do they have an entertainment industry rich enough for such. The role these things play in forex exchange earnings can not be overemphasized. Look at the lion King for instance.

West Africa has many carnivals and shows that attract many people yearly. West Africa is the home of vibe. Nairaland for instance.

Youre stuck with one projection like KaziKazi of Tanzania How desperate?

jl115:
just stfu with your "thumb suck" nonsense and till me where is Kenya in 2050?

Every country has their methodology of who a tourist is....and what constitute tourism. Always start from common sense test. Smell it, see it, feel it.

If you feel kenya tourism is ahead of Ghana like common sense says; stop.

Ghana fails the common sense test in many things.

we cannot go to data when you fail eye test.

You cannot look like chicken coop or your town look shietty and claim we are doing great HOW NOW?

If you land in developed country - immediately at airport - you know it - they dont print GDP per capita or data - you see it; you touch it; you feel it.

If you land in Accra - I am told you smell it - the smell of human raw waste - pungent smell - you immediately know you've landed in a shiet hole right from the airport.

Just40:
Since when did diaspora become Ghanaians?

Or you don't know who the diaspora is?

Find another excuse for why Ghana smoke your country in tourism

LOL

Just40:
Now you're escaping to domestic tourism meanwhile Kenyans dont even go on tour.

Bars, lounge, restaurants in Ghana gets full every evening and weekends begins on Fridays.. Most hotels, guest houses and Airbnb gets fully book for weekends

Good luck surpassing that, there's a reason why everyone loves night life in Ghana.

Now we can proceed. Let us try to elevate this MAD HOUSE to something we can all benefit from.Otherwise if we just heckle ; we all lose; Personally I fell I have so much knowledge to share; that I have painstakingly gathered; it frustrating when african resort to monkey games on serious stuff.

Look at Ghana - 5yrs ago - I said - youre gonna go bankrupt and crush a generation.

They immediately think I hate Ghana why would I hate Ghana What has Ghana done to me? Nothing? This country that like Zambia you can admire as democratic Africa country but the more you dig in - the more you understand their fiscal indiscipline and imprudence.

Why would I hate South Africa.

If you cannot take National or Country level criticism; pray can your personal feedback from your supervisor?

Is South Africa in a middle class rut like LATAM. yES YES Yes. That is a fact that data at least from 15yrs now is screaming. The country is unable to move forward or back. It stuck. It is almost default position for many upper middle class...that is why from 4,000 it goes all the way to 12,00 to become developed...per capita...it very difficult for countries to graduate to developed world. The whole of South America it was only Argentina and later Chile...despite being near US.

Are other countries going to graduate from low middle income to upper middle income - of course - Kenya is one of them. They will find south africa stuck.

For South Africa to follow Mauritus footstep it need to do alot of things - first is serious education reform.

One way you could tell Mauritus were heading to developed world - their education quality was highest - kenya followed - that mean their people can easily transition to HIGH IQ stuff that developed or advanced economy demands.

Hunting BOER - we are growing if you use the RAND -- hehehe - A Bonobo BOER. Growth is so broad based whatever you use - should be obvious. South Africa gdp is stuck at 350-400B dollars the last 10yrs plus. Nothing suggest anything will change.

jl115:
my bru even if we take the 51 million you speak of, your growth rate is still substantially higher than ours....you still overtaking us in about a decade my friend....

As for the bolded.... I'm the only one that actually cited my sources, so please stop with "I use official sources"

Even their gov knows they are babies in tourism. I hear they are hiring kenya hoteliers...who are in demand through out Africa and even outside.

Kenya Utalii College is set to train Ghana’s #hospitality & #tourism personnel in an initiative that is geared towards boosting the country’s customer service.This formed part of discussions between KUC led by the Principal & CEO Mr. Hashim Mohamed & a delegation from Ghana led by Dr. Ibrahim Mohammed Awal, Ghana's Minister for Tourism, Arts & Culture.

Monkey say. Monkey do.

Just40:
A week at most

Let it show in your tourism receipts

Chartered flights land here daily

Underwhelming. Kenya domestic tourism alone dwarf entire west africa.

Just40:
Cry more

We will still keep earning more from tourism than Kenya.


December Event line up for Accra

That's a packed month

Their nascent tourism has employed kenyan from the world famous Utalii college to help them. They have a long way to go. It sacreligious to compare any west africa country with kenya tourism. South africa yes they are ahead. North Africa definitely ahead.

NTSA:
Interesting ..how many days are they spending in Ghana.. anyway Just yesterday two chattered flights full of tourists landed in Mombasa.

After you see the slave dungeons, you're likely to need a bar to drown your sorrows and a fancy restaurant to digest the horror of slavery. That is pretty much their tourism. Their ocean front is a sewage dump.

NTSA:
You mean tourist come to spend money in some restaurant and bars

I know you have the same moral standards of west africans.
You dont need to argue over these kinds of figures. Let argue over theories.
KNBS did census - and they do projections - including GDP data.
https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-Economic-Survey1.pdf

AfriqueDuZuid:
Nope you are Kenya is 55m in 2022

Interms of gdp you 114 n we 420 in 2022

Slum dog, this debate is beyond your paygrade, let the hunting Boer respond. Kenya population at last count was 47.5m and now projected to be anything 51-52m.

I know you're dying to be overtaken by population - but kenya is keen in overtaking you GDP wise.

Uganda is definitely overtaking you population wise

AfriqueDuZuid:
1. Kenya population is at 55m in 2022, making 5m difference not 10m

Kenya population growth is twice that of SA in 5-8 years Kenya should be just as equal

#1) Demographic transition.
Generally, the more adults you have to kids; the more savings/investments/workers - and less the dependancy - and that is when a country really starts to grow. You cannot grow when you're busy feeding kids, building schools for ever increasing kids, hospitals and such - families and gov all busy child rearing - and hardly have any money left to save or invest in other things.

Once you have something like China - 1 child policy - eventually meant 4 people (grand parents & parent) looking after 1 child - you grow very rapidly - the 1 child is well fed, well schooled, name it - and the parents still have money to rake up savings, invest in properties, save for pension - gov has the money to build roads & railways.

That is story behind China and South Asia success.

In most of SSA africa - the situation is different - you have 2 parents - taking care of 5-10 kids and other dependants - that person can hardly save anything - as it's hand to mouth living - all activities geared toward feeding, clothing, educating kids - gov similarly spend almost all the budget on education, healthcare for same and hardly anything left.

It's almost trite that a country cannot develop when fertility rate is still more than 2%.

Kenya is soon joining South Africa, Botswana, Namibia in that 2% fertility - because of huge investment in contraceptive and family planning.

Why dont you ask for evidence instead of becoming combative?

The facts are overwhelming - you're just blinded folded by dogma.

1) Let starts with population - South Africa still 10 million ahead - and kenya might actually not overtake it. Kenya demographic had an inflection point somewhere in 2016. This we noted first in National Household Survey which was confirmed by census in 2019.

The largest population was 10-15 - now they should be the 15-20 - and from there next cohort are becoming less and less - another 10yrs - these 15-20 - will be 25-30 - then another 10yrs - mid 2035 - we would have hit demographic jackpot - so to speak

1) Image No 1: General demographic transition model
2) Image No 2: Kenya census 2019 - please pay attention to red circle I drew. That is kenya demographic Inflection point - subsequently you see less and less kids compared to next cohort.
3) Image No 3: Botswana - upper middle class country like South Africa - showing their demographic transition
4) Image no 4: SSA versus South Asia - showing the difference in population structure.

So basically, kenya is now at stage 3 leaving many SSA stuck in stage 1 & 2 and a decade or two - it's will be a stage 4 - which where most rapid growth happen - and stage 5 is generally developed or advanced countries like Japan or Europe struggling with aging population (replacement rate start becoming issues)

jl115:
every time you spew this tripe you just get dumber in my book..... There is 0 evidence that even remotely suggests this.... In fact the GDP gap between SA and Kenya has widened considerably since 2020.

Yes eventually Kenya will overtake SA however that will solely be down to population growth and will only happen near the end of this century

South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania can speak about Tourism in SSA - Botswana, Namibia - apart from seychelles, mauritus - the rest really should shut up.

Just40:


You're mad again why is your tourism sector not earning more than that of Ghana? Torist spend more money in Ghana at fancy restaurants and bars which are many here than Kenya.
They also spend more on events and accomodations than in Kenya..


Those are the outcomes we look for.

Bla de bla of a goat.
Your own gov are looking at 2037 earliest. 15yrs - a whole generation is lost.
Youre proposing to start paying debt in 2027 -
And you're talking two years

Kenya smartly foresaw the dangers and has had a "luckly" escape.

Just40:
That is not a problem for Ghana because Ghana offers the best investment opportunities on the continent with good returns. In two years time Ghana will be back on the market, it may even happen sooner.
Investors will be more than happy to pour their money into Ghana than Kenya.

As you can see, Ghana is not cutting back on anything as it is busy expanding it investment into various sectors and continuing many more projects than Kenya.

Kenya is the only Country cutting back largely because it is bankrupt and has been cut from the financing market for 2 years already. Busy taking a life saving surgery from IMF.

We are not bankrupt, we are growing rapidly, and we are overtaking south africa in a decade to become SSA biggest economy. What exactly is our problem?

Most analysts predict kenya will enter leapfrog phase in about 5-10yrs because we have nailed demographics (we stopped breeding & are 5yrs from having more adults than kids) - macro economics are solid - and have nailed basic infrastructure.

vankelvin:
Abeg focus on your Kenya, you need help more than any country on surface earth

Very good.
Dont allow the JustMad40 to railroad your entire country to become a fool paradise or world laughing stock
You gotta say what is truthful.
There is no patriotism when someone sink a generation like that.

vankelvin:
Nobody lured Ghana into doing anything
whatever that is happening in Ghana is self-inflicted.

The Government refused all sensible minds and took foolish decisions which is now affecting the country

Kenya is no longer in your group. You have Zambia, Chad, Ethiopia and now Ghana as countries who have recently defaulted. Ethiopia had a civil war and dont have lot of commercial loans. I see them emerging out of it quickly. They just need Paris Club of Creditors meeting or G20...and they are out. Chad too.

Zambia and Ghana have big problems due to Eurobond.

Debt vultures buy junk bonds and WAIT - George Soros - can wait for you for 20yrs - and come back to demand their interest.

Ghana has to figured out how to wriggle itself out of Eurobond mess...

vankelvin:
Including Nigeria and Kenya , we are all bleeped up

Only insane slowpoke would compare kenya tourism with Ghana.
Follow this couple - and your level of madness will come down a bit
https://www.youtube.com/@DaveMani/videos

Just40:
I won't even bother when you've already started paddling numbers ?

Can't you just be factual

Ghana direct earnings is 3.1 billion dollars...
This year, Ghana is looking at 2.6 billion dollars to 3 billion dollars. The entire December in Ghana is a party month, there are events almost every day till the end of the month into January.

Now go and work and solve your mental breakdown

You biggest problem is not debt you have taken.
Investors have been warned by credit agencies that they hold JUNK USELESS debt from Ghana.
They know they will take HUGE LOSSES but there is prize to be paid.
You will not be allowed in domestic and foreign debt market for 15yrs min- possible 20yrs.
And without ability to borrow - you will have to be self-sustainable - meaning cutting back many things for many years
Leading to anemic growth.

You really don't understand these issues

Just40:
We are already in 2023 and those are the realities.

By 2030 to 2035 Ghana is expected to be an upper middle income economy... Maybe that's what you're waiting for

There won't be a default on our foreign debt either, we will just use the very same market condition clauses that creditors benefits from to our own advantage as well.

The clauses that they use to Bleep over countries like Kenya, we are going to use it to Bleep them over.

Take your medicine, back up the nonsense with credible data, and we can resume.

We can start with Tourism - let see what direct tourism and sector earn - kenya tourism sector as whole is close to 10B dollars - with direct earnings from two million tourism - approaching 2b dollars.

Tourism is Industry without SmokeStack because it impacts transport, real estate, foods and other industries - creating a multiplier as good as manufacturing.

Just40:
Ghana earns 3 billion dollars from tourism Kenya is struggling to even earn a billion dollars. That's what speaks

Kenya agriculture products export is less than 4 billion dollars from coffee, tea, horticulture fruit veggies and nuts. Kenya can't even produce the staples needed by it populace

Ghana agricultural products export is approaching 10 billion dollars. PlusGhana produce almost 95% of the staples require.

Outcomes is what speaks and not your noise

Talk when we get to 2037 - you're bankrupt and out. We are waiting for you to declare default on foreign debt. The cedis "recovery" is temporary lull before the real storm start.

Just40:
Ghanaian Cedi is already appreciating
Gold reserves growing
Deinflationary process has began with inflation to drop to 18% next year.

Country dollars reserve at 9 billion dollars
Export at 26 billion dollars
Import expected to drop to 8 or 9 billion dollars there by increasing the country trade surplus even further.

Positives

Understands industries without smokestacks
Kenya has largest dairy sector in Africa - having overtaken South Africa - with 6 billion litres of milk - and now close to a billion being processed.
Kenya has largest horticulture sector in Africa - worth 3B dollars - accounting for 25% of all flowers sold in europe - and most vegies
Kenya is also doing great in Nuts, Fruits and such.
Kenya has very well-developed tourism sector - Ghana cannot compete in a million years. It's probably only second to South Africa in SSA - if we use hotel/cottage rooms.
Kenya has very well-developed ICT sector - at par with South Africa

All these are some of IWST - that kenya is doing great - and they are all growing at double digit.

Kenya is manufacturing giant - whose subsidiaries manufacture for the region - but of course we can do more -

Just40:
your entire agro-horticultural industry is just 30% of that of Ghana ... Your tourism industry is just half that of Ghana.

Unfortunately you don't have a manufacturing industry the size of Ghana, like your poverty would have reduced so much than it is now because the spread on preventing hard currency outflows will be advantages to the Kenyan economy

This was 5yrs ago almost - when I told west african bonobos - that Kenya will breeze through because it has Africa most education policy wonks.