₦airaland Forum

Why dont you ask for evidence instead of becoming combative?

The facts are overwhelming - you're just blinded folded by dogma.

1) Let starts with population - South Africa still 10 million ahead - and kenya might actually not overtake it. Kenya demographic had an inflection point somewhere in 2016. This we noted first in National Household Survey which was confirmed by census in 2019.

The largest population was 10-15 - now they should be the 15-20 - and from there next cohort are becoming less and less - another 10yrs - these 15-20 - will be 25-30 - then another 10yrs - mid 2035 - we would have hit demographic jackpot - so to speak

1) Image No 1: General demographic transition model
2) Image No 2: Kenya census 2019 - please pay attention to red circle I drew. That is kenya demographic Inflection point - subsequently you see less and less kids compared to next cohort.
3) Image No 3: Botswana - upper middle class country like South Africa - showing their demographic transition
4) Image no 4: SSA versus South Asia - showing the difference in population structure.

So basically, kenya is now at stage 3 leaving many SSA stuck in stage 1 & 2 and a decade or two - it's will be a stage 4 - which where most rapid growth happen - and stage 5 is generally developed or advanced countries like Japan or Europe struggling with aging population (replacement rate start becoming issues)

jl115:
every time you spew this tripe you just get dumber in my book..... There is 0 evidence that even remotely suggests this.... In fact the GDP gap between SA and Kenya has widened considerably since 2020.

Yes eventually Kenya will overtake SA however that will solely be down to population growth and will only happen near the end of this century

South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania can speak about Tourism in SSA - Botswana, Namibia - apart from seychelles, mauritus - the rest really should shut up.

Just40:


You're mad again why is your tourism sector not earning more than that of Ghana? Torist spend more money in Ghana at fancy restaurants and bars which are many here than Kenya.
They also spend more on events and accomodations than in Kenya..


Those are the outcomes we look for.

Bla de bla of a goat.
Your own gov are looking at 2037 earliest. 15yrs - a whole generation is lost.
Youre proposing to start paying debt in 2027 -
And you're talking two years

Kenya smartly foresaw the dangers and has had a "luckly" escape.

Just40:
That is not a problem for Ghana because Ghana offers the best investment opportunities on the continent with good returns. In two years time Ghana will be back on the market, it may even happen sooner.
Investors will be more than happy to pour their money into Ghana than Kenya.

As you can see, Ghana is not cutting back on anything as it is busy expanding it investment into various sectors and continuing many more projects than Kenya.

Kenya is the only Country cutting back largely because it is bankrupt and has been cut from the financing market for 2 years already. Busy taking a life saving surgery from IMF.

We are not bankrupt, we are growing rapidly, and we are overtaking south africa in a decade to become SSA biggest economy. What exactly is our problem?

Most analysts predict kenya will enter leapfrog phase in about 5-10yrs because we have nailed demographics (we stopped breeding & are 5yrs from having more adults than kids) - macro economics are solid - and have nailed basic infrastructure.

vankelvin:
Abeg focus on your Kenya, you need help more than any country on surface earth

Very good.
Dont allow the JustMad40 to railroad your entire country to become a fool paradise or world laughing stock
You gotta say what is truthful.
There is no patriotism when someone sink a generation like that.

vankelvin:
Nobody lured Ghana into doing anything
whatever that is happening in Ghana is self-inflicted.

The Government refused all sensible minds and took foolish decisions which is now affecting the country

Kenya is no longer in your group. You have Zambia, Chad, Ethiopia and now Ghana as countries who have recently defaulted. Ethiopia had a civil war and dont have lot of commercial loans. I see them emerging out of it quickly. They just need Paris Club of Creditors meeting or G20...and they are out. Chad too.

Zambia and Ghana have big problems due to Eurobond.

Debt vultures buy junk bonds and WAIT - George Soros - can wait for you for 20yrs - and come back to demand their interest.

Ghana has to figured out how to wriggle itself out of Eurobond mess...

vankelvin:
Including Nigeria and Kenya , we are all bleeped up

Only insane slowpoke would compare kenya tourism with Ghana.
Follow this couple - and your level of madness will come down a bit
https://www.youtube.com/@DaveMani/videos

Just40:
I won't even bother when you've already started paddling numbers ?

Can't you just be factual

Ghana direct earnings is 3.1 billion dollars...
This year, Ghana is looking at 2.6 billion dollars to 3 billion dollars. The entire December in Ghana is a party month, there are events almost every day till the end of the month into January.

Now go and work and solve your mental breakdown

You biggest problem is not debt you have taken.
Investors have been warned by credit agencies that they hold JUNK USELESS debt from Ghana.
They know they will take HUGE LOSSES but there is prize to be paid.
You will not be allowed in domestic and foreign debt market for 15yrs min- possible 20yrs.
And without ability to borrow - you will have to be self-sustainable - meaning cutting back many things for many years
Leading to anemic growth.

You really don't understand these issues

Just40:
We are already in 2023 and those are the realities.

By 2030 to 2035 Ghana is expected to be an upper middle income economy... Maybe that's what you're waiting for

There won't be a default on our foreign debt either, we will just use the very same market condition clauses that creditors benefits from to our own advantage as well.

The clauses that they use to Bleep over countries like Kenya, we are going to use it to Bleep them over.

Take your medicine, back up the nonsense with credible data, and we can resume.

We can start with Tourism - let see what direct tourism and sector earn - kenya tourism sector as whole is close to 10B dollars - with direct earnings from two million tourism - approaching 2b dollars.

Tourism is Industry without SmokeStack because it impacts transport, real estate, foods and other industries - creating a multiplier as good as manufacturing.

Just40:
Ghana earns 3 billion dollars from tourism Kenya is struggling to even earn a billion dollars. That's what speaks

Kenya agriculture products export is less than 4 billion dollars from coffee, tea, horticulture fruit veggies and nuts. Kenya can't even produce the staples needed by it populace

Ghana agricultural products export is approaching 10 billion dollars. PlusGhana produce almost 95% of the staples require.

Outcomes is what speaks and not your noise

Talk when we get to 2037 - you're bankrupt and out. We are waiting for you to declare default on foreign debt. The cedis "recovery" is temporary lull before the real storm start.

Just40:
Ghanaian Cedi is already appreciating
Gold reserves growing
Deinflationary process has began with inflation to drop to 18% next year.

Country dollars reserve at 9 billion dollars
Export at 26 billion dollars
Import expected to drop to 8 or 9 billion dollars there by increasing the country trade surplus even further.

Positives

Understands industries without smokestacks
Kenya has largest dairy sector in Africa - having overtaken South Africa - with 6 billion litres of milk - and now close to a billion being processed.
Kenya has largest horticulture sector in Africa - worth 3B dollars - accounting for 25% of all flowers sold in europe - and most vegies
Kenya is also doing great in Nuts, Fruits and such.
Kenya has very well-developed tourism sector - Ghana cannot compete in a million years. It's probably only second to South Africa in SSA - if we use hotel/cottage rooms.
Kenya has very well-developed ICT sector - at par with South Africa

All these are some of IWST - that kenya is doing great - and they are all growing at double digit.

Kenya is manufacturing giant - whose subsidiaries manufacture for the region - but of course we can do more -

Just40:
your entire agro-horticultural industry is just 30% of that of Ghana ... Your tourism industry is just half that of Ghana.

Unfortunately you don't have a manufacturing industry the size of Ghana, like your poverty would have reduced so much than it is now because the spread on preventing hard currency outflows will be advantages to the Kenyan economy

This was 5yrs ago almost - when I told west african bonobos - that Kenya will breeze through because it has Africa most education policy wonks.

You're clinical insane.

Just40:
Ghana might not go to the IMF at all because the country has enough buffer to freely operate.

You might be wondering how the country debt fell from 54 billion dollars to 48 billion dollars in the space of a year.

Kenya is the one busy blaming IMF for not allowing them physical space to carry out spending because IMF tiny money is badly needed by Kenya

Mad cow - remember I predicted you coming out one Sunday to tell the world - we are BANKRUPT soon. Maybe in my off-days I can also moonlight as your finance minister.

The mad cow response - . Now their entire country is begging IMF to help them - I dont think IMF will rush - Zambia negotiation took almost two years. Ghana already blaming IMF for "non responsiveness".

Wait for it - it's coming. You wanted it.

The mad cow and Vax reasons like their Finance ministry - this what I predicted in covid - 2020

Before even COVID - I wrote this in 2019 - to the usual Ghanian id.iots contestation

rvp20182: 9:18am On Nov 19, 2019
You're just confused fellow typing nonsense. Your airport smiley and seaport; like you seriously want to compare yourself with Kenya?

Kenya debt market is mostly local debt - we are careful with external debt because of exogenous currency risk - so Kenya might have 60B dollars debt - but about 35 of that is owed to kenyans - and are denominated by KShs. CBK can just print Kshs and pay that off. The 25B dollars is external debt - about 1/3 of that 25B dollars is public guarantee to gov parastals - we never have to repay unless they go under. So that leaves us with about 15B dollars of debt - split btw commercial and concessionary loans - all mostly with long tenures...maturing in 50yrs.

In short - we don't have any debt repayment problem - monthly our total debt repayment comes to about 35-40B Kshs - and we collect about 120B d from taxes - we also borrow about 34-50 billion - so in short we have no problem at all.

ghana has to start attracting investment outside minerals and natural resources...and we can talk about you having a MODERN ECONOMY.

Look at even low hanging fruit like ICT - NOTHING IS HAPPENING IN ghana - LAGOS is doing great - so is Nairobi.

I wrote this August 2021 - exactly what has happened in Dec 5th 2022.

Both domestic and external debt have cons and prons.
You need to get the right mix;
And even within that domestic or external debt; you need to get the right mix.

External debt - exposes the country to exogenous risk (forex risks) - and if commercial (flexible interest rate risks).

Borrowing internally - kills the private sector - because they cannot compete with risk-free gov bonds - that is why Nigeria interest rate for borrowing is 30 percent - and poverty is endemic.

Most domestic borrowing comes from banks, insurance and pension funds - you take too much of that - you kill private sector, local investment and stunt the economy.

That is where Nigeria is. TINY private sector. Zero tax collection. Poverty.

ghana seems to be like kenya with right mix of 50:50; the problem with ghana; they have taken a huge chunk of dangerous Eurobond (commercial foreign loan) - if their interest rate rises from 10 percent now to Zambia 17 percent - and if their Cedis depreciate against the dollar - they WILL DEFAULT - leading to another lost decade to clean such kind of a gigantic mess.

Before they answer - Ghana woes are self-inflicted - domestic - reckless borrowing - reckless expenditure. I have written about it years before it came to this.

mhkent:
Ghanaians what do you think about what this our spokesperson said.

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMFbAVxEs/

Nigeria have not invested in banking infrastructure. It's bank owners who invest - not Nigerians - majority who dont have even a bank account.
It's the Nigeran Bankers - people who OWN the commercial banks - who forced CBN to block Telcoms.
That is REGULATORY CAPTURE - ala Dangote capture of Nigeria industrial space.
CBN should look out for public interest...majority of nigeria who are unbanked...or have to travel long distance to withdraw or deposit money.
Mpesa or mobile money was proven a sucess in kenya from 2007.
Nigeri has missed the boat for 15yrs.

Once Mobile Money grow in Nigeria - their "useless" fintech will disappear - because none of the reach of mobile money - which is available even I think in Sambisa forest/

---> This cant work without Telcom stepping in with their almost ubiquitous coverage

In over 60 percent of rural communities across Nigeria, there are no bank branches, agents or ATM

vaxx:
I think Nigeria has invested so much in her banking infrastructure to allow a mobile telecommunications company to come compete with her. Though, not as much as the western country . For the west , they are even jealous of the technology , they wish they could own it but I guess they have already exceeded that chance , a little tweak on their banking system may collapsed their financial institution.


MTN Nigeria has been giving licence to start mobile wallet transaction , I really don't know what is stopping them . Maybe it is working but not popular.

Okay look like Nigeria finally did allow Telcoms to roll out Fintech after ending their regulatory capture by commercial banks. that has seen Nigeria miss the mobile money boat.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has approved the license for MTN’s Mobile Money (MoMo) payment service bank in the country, extending its services to wider banking operations.
The new banking license granted to MTN should allow the company to explore additional growth opportunities presented by the country’s unbanked and underserviced population.


And already making progress

MTN says 4.2 million MoMo wallets opened in two months
Fintech subscribers rose by 87.3% to 11.5 million since launch of PSB on 19 May 2022
ByOge Udegbunam August 2, 2022 Reading Time: 1 min read
0
Telecommunications company MTN Nigeria’s mobile money wallet, MoMo, recorded 4.2 million wallets in less than two months of its launch, the firm said in its financial result for the half year 2022.

Nigeria is a country. And this thread is about comparison. If you dont like country comparison - with a negative feel to it - please look for other good feel threads in nairaland. I am sure they are millions such thread.

Why are you hooked up with thread you dont enjoy. I enjoy comparing countries and learn something at end of the day

IGpro1:
Congrats, next is to feed the people of Turkana, and you can now have something to boast of.


Besides, you keep dragging Nigeria yet, we are busy living our lives,
Just find some other engagement that can yield cash.

Rvp has mentioned Nigeria today more than 20times, are you obsessed with us?
Well, we still have cultural Influence over your country, they love us

Then why industrialize if you cannot generate electricity for basic household needs?
The reality is you're going down.
This is a new problem - a sign of things deteroriating.
You're coming down - kenya is going up

jl115:
it's easy to have 24hour electricity when only 70odd % of your population is connected to the grid and you are totally none industrialised like Kenya

What madness are you on.
KPLC requires 50-70M dollars monthly to pay IPPs and loans they took in foreign currency.
They need to figure out how to survive the dollar crunch
And are proposing charging customers in EPZ, embassies and such dollars if they agree

As for Ghana - have you even paid Nigeria for Gas without walking sleeping Buhari?

You own power companies dont even pay for their debt - it's Ghana gov that pays

vaxx:
shut up you dense,those kenya regulate, manage and print dollar ? Why then are you trying to do what you aren't capable.

If kenya try it, then consider your independent monetary policies home like that of zimbabwe . kenya willl eventually loose the power to control interest rates. How them do you stimulate your economic growth . Kenya is about sinking ( walking the path of zimbabwe ) the worst it is even a national company seeking payment in hard currency . If the policy work , many organization will also request for similar treatment. Then more compounded problem for more poor turkana citizens . I pity kenya .

If i had may way - we would import those cheap grains - and focus on dairy, avacados, nuts - horticulture and floriculture - are Industries without Smoke Stokes - they are what helps kenya get over useless grain producers like Tanzania.

Four major industries without smokestacks that helps kenya get over many backwater economies still consider farming rice something to be proud of —agro- industry and horticulture, tourism, ICT-based business service.

These IWS (industries without smokestacks) have as good multiplier as manufacturing.

Just40:
another rant from a country struggling to produce just 50,000 metric tonnes of rice

You wish every country was going through economic turmoil like Ghana. You deal with your self-inflicted pain alone for 20yrs.

Just40:


Lunatic with another useless comment.. that's not what they want

You producer power you need to dig 10kms into the earth crust looking for gold. Maybe you need to give up on gold pursuit - and supply citizens with critical basic power package like kenya.
Only 20 companies mainly involved in minning consume what 80% of that power.
We dont need all that.
We have more than enough power than we need.
We have excess power we can sell to you.

Now you can't mine or put the lights on - without running a diesel generator - sounds like the start of Nigeria.

The economy is also characterised by a small number of industrial concerns consuming almost half of the electricity. Most of them are members of The Energy Intensive User Group (EIUG). Its 31 members account for 44% of all electricity consumed in South Africa but, collectively, they also have a collective annual turnover of R741 billion, more than 20% of South Africa’s GDP and employ nearly 600,000 South Africans. Almost half the EIUG’s members are in mining and a third are manufacturing concerns.

jl115:
once you produce just 5% the electricity we generate then we'll talk

Learn how to farm in small scale first - that farm look really unkempt

Just40:
Rice farms in the North East Region of Ghana, Janga

Slimy city

Just40:
Rush hour at Nkrumah circle

Usual madness. KPLC is proposing to charge only those who want to pay dollars; like embassies, UN, and others.

Just40:
dumbest thing ever said here


Is the Kenyan shilling no longer the legal tender of Kenya?
Where will 60 million Kenyans get dollars from to pay their bills when Kenya power itself can't find any?

You guys don't seem to know where the bottomless pit ends , you keep digging deeper.

Wasn't the entire Kenya shut down last week because of complete collapse of the grid?
Has there not been rolling blackout in the entire country for the last 50 years now?

Since 1999 - IPPs - Independent power producer came in - kenyans always pay forex charge on their electricity. IPPs signed agreement to provide us power for 30yrs - and those who import oil/thermal - have forex charge on them. KPLC have to buy dollars - and Kenya banks are making a kill from forex - so it make sense if they can charge source for own cheaper forex.

We are okay - because we dont have rolling power cuts like South africa, Nigeria, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbwabwe - who are all struggling for non-investment in the sector and dependence entirely on hydro or coal - or of course being totally rudderless like Nigeria.

vaxx:
The move can actually crumble their currency more. AN illogical move I must say, they always run out of idea . Running two currency is a huge hassle and has considerable cost . Liberia is a typical example. Dollar can be used just as Liberia currency. Very mad system.

Shilling is about turning to Liberia dollar.

I wonder how someone can proceed to eat that.

Saddamochieng00:
Shut up already. Can you explain to me how someone in a supposedly "civilised" country is roasting goat meat by burning car tyres? And here I was thinking I'd seen it all with your brother's eating cow hide but no this is on a whole other level.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTio_0rwR1s