₦airaland Forum

vaxx:
So kenya are also begging for imf assistance .....

Kenya case is actually worse than Ghana but they choose to talk less about it .

What do you mean.. Nigeria and south Africa are in imf too... everyone run to imf when covid hit except stupid nana who run to eurobond.You should have him hanged in Nkrumah independent square upside down because he has destroyed your economy and taken you at least a decade back... building trust in debt market will take time

jl115:
Dude please try to understand that GDP totals are cumulative.....meaning the figure is for October 2022....its cumulative untill October 2022....do you understand now?

Secondly I very very clearly said Nigeria has a higher GDP nominal per capita and a lower Gdp ppp per capita than Kenya

Imf and world bank October outlook are projections.only south Africa has released their Q3.2022 final real figures will be known in most countries march/April next year..they need at least two months to collect and crunch numbers after end of a quarter.But imf outlook of October are pretty accurate compared to April because they already know the first half and have to project the remainder

WB and IMF are day and night. learn the difference mad cow. WB dont do debt bla bla. They offer development loans. IMF are the cops. Everyone listen to IMF. If they say Ghana is sick - everyone stops.

Just30:
yeah a technical way of saying I can't pay wages and I'm obligating the WB to help me pay my workers while on a death bed at the IMF.

No wonder your debt sustainability plan was rejected by the world bank.... They are saying you can't keep adding concessional debt when your country is bankrupt with a 140% debt to revenue

As you cry in Ghana...kenya is getting cheap multilateral and bilateral loans...as we wait out the global financial storm

Just last week...AFDB has put money down for dual road in Mombasa, UK has put down 300M in Nairobi Railway city - their minister was in Kenya - and Koreans have committed 1 billion dollars in Konza city where they are already building branch of their famous KASIT - institute of science and tech . The americans are pouring money...as kenya has been instrumental in peace building in Ethiopia and DRC - they gave kenya 250m gift for fighting drought - and more is flowing. Japanese are starting Dongo Kundu free port in Mombasa. Chinese can go drying for now with Eurobond. We are switching from East to West as china man is struggling.

Forex are flowing thanks to Ruto.

Kenya is on the verge of obtaining a Ksh.92 billion ($750 million) loan from the World Bank Group as the country moves to tie down cheap financing.

On Tuesday, Treasury Cabinet Secretary Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u disclosed the government was in advanced talks for the loan disbursement even as the value of the facility falls below its expectations of accessing Ksh.122.7 billion ($1 billion).

“The proposed package under discussion with the World Bank aims at promoting sustainable, resilience and inclusive growth. That will also promote human capital development as a major input to economic management,” he said.

“

Just30:
WB is not in the business of giving free money to a bankrupt country.

After failing your debt sustainability stress test, WB will not give you even a penny until you shown how you plan to be liquid

WB committed to lend kenya 5B dollars in 5yrs; Low interest or zero interest loans; Give up; IMF has yet to even accept to admit you to ICU. You're in the casualty and IMF doctors are still debating if they get you a bed or send you to the morque direct. WB is not even in the picture...who lend someone defaulting.

IMF has to first admit you to ICU and do serious treatment. Then WB and rest will lend to Ghana. Then bilateral lenders. Then in 2040 - you can float bonds again.

Just30:
Bankruptcy

IMF is concerned Kenya can't repay it debt ... A ticking time bomb
With an unproductive economy that imports everything

Ghanians are really crazy people.
In kenya if you default on personal or commercial loan.
You're BLACKLISTED FOR 7 YEARS.
Most countries do this

These kenya credit reference rules - Ghana still primitive to do credit blacklisting or scoring

For what purpose does the Credit Reference Bureau use the information?
Sale of credit information in the form of credit reports to a data subject, data providers, and other entities within Kenya
Retention period purpose; Credit Reference Bureau retains credit information maintained in its database until the expiry of 5 years from the date of final loan repayment assignment or written-off and bankruptcy data will be kept for 7 years from the date of discharge.
Public awareness purpose; in conjunction with all data providers, the Credit Reference Bureau maintains a program of public awareness relating to the rights and protection of the data subject.

Your anger is misplaced.
We are waiting for external debt restructure
15yrs for a default is a steal. If you emerge out of this by 2037 consider yourselves very lucky
Most countries take even 50yrs to win trust back

Anybody alive now is unlikely to ever lend to Ghana gov...without asking for a arm and a leg.

That is the prize. You have betrayed people trust in risk free Ghana bounds. Their pension plans are now useless. Their life insurances messed up. Their bank deposits in jeopardy. You have destroyed TRUST in ghana gov bonds. People dont want to wake up to sweating minister on Sunday announcing that they will pay debt in 2050...what if they are dying...and life insurance need to be paid tomorrow.

Research how long it took you to recover from 1982 default.

When did you re-dominate the cedis and removed four zeros

Once you're done - you will need to do the same.

Music is getting started

vaxx:
you will be a very bad student academically, you are too daft

Of course this verbatim from your finance minister.
You think a default is a JOKE?

vaxx:
so those that translates to having the problem resolved before 2037?

You are this daft

Take your meds mad cow. You dont make sense. People who care for you should tell you. It sad to see fellow Ghanians encourage you. I love you and want you to get help. Mental health.

Just30:
It's for payment of wages and salaries as the Kenyan govt is in serious liquidity problem with 70% of revenue being used to service debt.
That's crisis level.... Kenya is not going to be allowed to enter the Eurobond market even in 2035... No Eurobond investor is going to give your country money when it is not liquid (debt gulping up 70% of revenue)... They are worried that you've defaulted already and with such high burden Kenya won't be able to pay back..

Ghana is doing 35% so no one is worried about Ghana's inability to pay because the country is considered highly liquid.

Ghana is looking to swap $10.4 billion in local-currency debt ... of existing debt with new bonds maturing in 2027, 2029, 2032 and 2037.

In short you domestic debt restructuring ends in 2037.

Let wait for external debt restructuring.

You've basically pushed the debt can down the road...someone who owes you NOW...earliest he get paid is 2027...and last 2037....that is when you can be allowed again to borrow.

Btw then - it impossible to see you floating new debt - while people are waiting for 2037 - so you can only get bilateral and multilateral aid

vaxx:
I love evidence, I would have Google your bullshit up before asking you. You are stupid boy for saying whatever rubbish that comes from your skull

Ghana debt restructurings end in 2037
Ghana is looking to swap $10.4 billion in local-currency debt ... of existing debt with new bonds maturing in 2027, 2029, 2032 and 2037.
That is when they expect to be liquid again.

The luckiest are getting paid in 2027.
Then 2029
Then 2032
Then finally 2037.

And that point it has cleared the arrears

And can go to market to borrow new loans.

Google search - 2037 Ghana debt

vaxx:
I have ask to provide evidence for your hogwash input .

You just love to be stupid

Mad cow in his element.

Just30:
Ghana debt to GDP is expected to fall to 55% iwhich is the threshold for countries like Ghana and Kenya, in 2027.

I wonder how Kenya is planning to bring it debt service to revenue down to acceptable levels..

The IMF just rejected the plans they submitted

I dont see where borrowing is for salaries - it is for development - the first WB loan is to finance dual carriage way btw Nairobi and my home area in Nakuru - 230km.
Ghana hope to borrow from world bank and bilateral donors in 2030.
Kenya having shut itself from external debt market due to interest and forex risk only recourse is world bank and bilateral donors.
Once eurobond opens again in 2-3yrs we will be back.
Ghana will be back in 2040.

Just30:
Next year is not even in and things are already this bad in Kenya.

Kenya is already borrowing to pay salaries... This is what a bankrupt country looks like.
A tragic debt to revenue ratio of 140% and a 33% budget financing deficit.
A country that has defaulted on several of it debt obligations

Why are being abusive? You kicked the domestic debt can for five years. Your own minister of finance admit the debt problem will be resolved in 2037. This after you hired 5 of the best consultancies - the Lazards etc.

2037 is the earliest. You're going to become solvent earliest 2027 - enough to start paying principal of domestic debt.

vaxx:
provide evidence for this your usual follish input or I consider it your normal rant .

Remember Ghana isn't kibera kenya

I am saying nobody can predict tomorrow or next hour; Dont hide behind those institutions; some of us have worked in all of them.

jl115:
so the IMF can't use common sense? That's what your saying? Only rvp is capable of making accurate economic projections?

IMF technical team and four of best international consulting companies- the Lazards - did technical analysis - at your invitation - you have serious structural debt problem - that will be resolved in 2037.

Those are opinions of 5 specialist - telling you the same thing - you're beyond help until 2037. Like someone terminal sick - you keep going to all sort of experts - same diagnosis - cancer stage 3.

Leave long stories about 1.5B dollars - that is nothing now - you've lost the biggest asset - TRUST.

Gov bonds - domestic and external - operate on the trust that gov will "never" default - that they are "risk free" asset - and when they do like Ghana did - it a serious prize to be paid by entire generation.

What is 1.5B when you owe 45B dollars and increasing daily. And you cannot borrow or refinance your debt - because nobody trust you - you have committed a cardinal sin in financing...you have defaulted.

vaxx:
firstly , liquidity has never been a problem in Ghana, there is about 1.5 billon dollar of Ghana money sitting as investment in foreign country , we can actually withdraw it and charter our destiny ourself instead of waiting for the imf but we rather establish public trust and imf is going to actualized that , it is the ability to trust the local currency that is missing, there is continuation in GDP growth, maintaining positive in trade balance etc All this point out that it is not facing liquidity challenge. So the dead cat bounce analogy is not suitable for this position.

England out. France now hot favourite with Argentina to win. England back?

Nay the usual English nonsense. What a jack. Total cowards.

Done deal...after morrocans..now the honking by French...look like we wont sleep for sometime

Could be the famous dead cat bounce. Or the rigor mortis for large mammals. Give it time for people to digest the Ghana default. And we still have lots of uncertainty of external debt restructure and IMF deal.

So far Ghana has kicked the debt can down the dirty canal for 5yrs - and locals have accepted it.


A dead cat bounce is a temporary, short-lived recovery of asset prices from a prolonged decline or a bear market that is followed by the continuation of the ..

vaxx:
Ghana’s currency, the Cedi, has started gaining strength. It posted world’s biggest gain against the US Dollar last week. .

I am not. I have used kenya and south africa medium term projections, lots of common sense and last 10yrs, to predict the next 10yrs, plus lots of knowledge on issue facing each country.

Your challenge - what did IMF or WB - predict kenya will be in 2023 in say 2013 or 2010 - and if they were right - I will concede

jl115:
So you acknowledge you are just trolling and talking absolute dog sh1t

Yes I could be totally wrong; I cannot predict tomorrow; leave alone 10 or 15 yrs;

My caveat emptor: Ceteris Paribus. In English - if all things continue they way they are.

jl115:
but you are predicting Kenya will overtake SA in 10 years ..... If nobody can predict anything, how can you predict it?

When I highlight kenya problems - you complain. When I fail to do that - you claim we are hiding our problems. Kenya has problems. The difference btw it and Nigeria - kenya is fixing their problems - and it show up in data, indices, videos, pictures.

Kenya is a progressive nation like Rwanda.

Nigeria is a retrogressive nation like Ghana and South Africa. One has gone completely bankrupt (Ghana) one doesnt even know it went bankrupt long time ago (Nigeria - it long exceeded 100% debt servicing ratio & hardly spend on anything on it's citizens - citizens are on their own) and one is delusional of it's greatness - of the bygone era - South Africa hoping one day ANC will disappear.

Meanwhile Kenya, Ivory Coast, Rwanda and Ethiopia before their stupid civil war - are some of countries moving fast forward. I should add Somalia...their new president is pretty serious

obaaderemi:
R I P, you are nothing but animals. When schoolboys aged below 18 go on rampage raping and killing and burning female students of the same stock, and a grandpa like you posts such videos to hype the act on social media, there's nothing else to do but see you as animals.
You were the same individual hailing Kenyan men renting their wives out to tourists, same you posted videos of school principals being lynched for the failure of frivolous high school kids. You've sunk as a country.

No wonder people starve yearly and the best you could do is to use them as specimens with which to get foreign aid. Useless animals with a total lack of Code of Honour.

No body can predict anything. It one of hardest thing to do. Nobody saw South Africa tanking the way its done since 2010. People thought it was emerging power in BRIC. Now that look like a big joke struggling against kenya. Nobody saw corona. Nobody saw Ukraine-Russian war bankrupting Ghana for next 15yrs.

Nobody can predict even world cup.

So make your prediction based on data and make a convincing case.

jl115:
out of the horses mouth.... Rvp officially says he can predict economic growth and the IMF and WB can't

You twist and turn like a trapped animal that you find in your hunting escapades instead of accepting stubborn facts.
2013 - Kenya had GDP of 40B.
2023 - Keny has GDP of almost 120B.

10yrs ago - South Africa was 400B - now it 400BN - round off.

Kenya has grown 3 times in a decade; South Africa stuck in middle class trap or rut ;

Conclusion : Ceteris Paribus as Latin would say next 10yrs.

kenya will be 360b - South Africa 400B.

The rest are really details.

The dollar is not unfair to South Africa - South Africa is stuck at best going down at worse.

jl115:
So many words yet so little said as usual....you are on of the Special kinds that think you are smarter than all the economists of the world combined...smarter than the IMF, Smarter than the WB, smarter than PWC ect ect ect...... Unlike you I don't claim to be an expert on all things, my posts are based solely of facts and research done not just by people more qualified than me but organisations with millions of dollars available for research funding.

It really doesn't matter what sources I post here be it from the IMF or PWC you would still say dumb sh1t like " Kenya will overtake SA in 10 years" when in reality that simply won't happen and simple projections by the IMF and PWC clearly show this, Kenya will only surpass SA by the end of the century thanks to population growth.... Which ironically you also know more about than any organisation on earth

West Africa Tourism; Summer Bunnies
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/entertainment/features/article/2001434601/from-forced-accent-to-culture-shock-things-that-make-summer-bunnies-look-like-strangers

The two hits made the highlights during two major Nairobi-hosted gigs last weekend; one held at the former Kiza Lounge, now known as Kulture, and another held at Four Points by Sheraton in Hurlingham, Nairobi.

Both were predominantly attended by Kenyans from the Diaspora who were back home for the December holidays.

It is not over though. The last of the Summer Bunnies parties were on this weekend.

Traditionally the Nairobi mid-January period is usually livened by club action by Summer Bunnies holding their last parties before flying back abroad for another year of academics and work.

Typically, Summer Bunny parties are like throwback parties dedicated to homesick Kenyans, who after being away from the country for long, get to catch up with all that has been taking place in the party scene throughout the year.

They hang out in the clubs bonding with the ‘local peeps’ who share all the interesting things about the party life. A joke is shared on how these Summer Bunnies speak with accent, having been away in “America” and have the image of a foreigner; white cotton Gucci and Louis Vuitton apparels and sunglasses (to say its Summer).

In fact, in most parties, it is dictated that attendees should wear white.

Poor Ghanian..in Kenya generally when summer bunnies like me land...kenyans just leave town for them - with fake American accent in tow. Those are not tourist. Those are kenyans in diaspora coming to club and party before they resume winters.

Majority infact when they fly in - fish their kenyan passport - and come as locals.

Here in Kenya, the Kenyans living or studying abroad who come to visit and vacation home are collectively known as 'summer bunnies'. I don't know where the term originated from but I've heard it a lot recently and been referred as one when I'm here on holiday

BREAKING: SUMMER BUNNIES HAVE STARTED LANDING AT JKIA

Do you count this as TOURISM or DIASPORA REMITTANCE?

You're counting what in kenya we call summer bunnies as tourist?

Nigeria and Ghana - you got no tourism.

You have Ghanian diaspora returning for xmas.

We dont count those as tourist.

Here in Kenya, the Kenyans living or studying abroad who come to visit and vacation home are collectively known as 'summer bunnies'. I don't know where the term originated from but I've heard it a lot recently and been referred as one when I'm here on holiday

What you call tourists are Ghanians coming home for xmas.

You got NO TOURISM sector - that is why white dude is a rarity in many of your countries.

Just40:
Running away from the fact that Kenya generates less than a billion from Tourism.


Kenya can't be looking like a pig pen with no international events that attract tourist yearly and be trying to compete with the big boys.

Modernize your country Tourism from the cheap safari tour and you'll be be earning more money like Ghana.

Look at Afrochella, a signature big event bringing together the diaspora from everywhere for an end of year party.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufPMWXVARYw

Afronation.. another big party gathering the African diaspora from every part of the world


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZvAf4-U87U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNP5MTryrB0

Kenyans don't have a vibe hence can't earn as much... Sex tourism with grand ladies won't get you 3 billion

Again you're resorting to insults to cover you lack of content.

Let us have civilized debate hunter and gatherer. This is not the wild.

I use official data - and I am aware of official census data including projection.

Avoid those websites when you have official dat or me - I know most the data inside out.

Kenya population was 47.5M in 2019. It's now projected to be about 51M. South Africa projected to be roughly 61M.

The crappy site you pasted projected kenya population to be 52M in 2019.

Kenya spend more than 200M dollars to count it people and said they are 47.3M. This is not guesswork. This is census

Kenya is adding roughly a million and few thousands every year - roughly a million if you minus deaths - so 2029 - next cenus - it likely to be 55-56m. South Africa likely to be maybe 65M.

That 10 million gap looks less and less likely to be bridge. Uganda will certainly overtake kenya soon - and race ahead - because they are breeding like rats.

jl115:
Bru I swear you just post random bullsh1t to justify your ret@rdedness

Next time just google population projections:

South Africa 2022: 61.1 million
Kenya 2022: 56.6 million

South Africa 2030: 65.9 million
Kenya 2030: 66.4 million

South Africa 2050: 75.5 million
Kenya 2050: 91.5 million

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/south-africa-population/

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/kenya-population/#:~:text=The%20current%20population%20of%20Kenya,the%20latest%20United%20Nations%20data.

Yeah yeah Ghana - really not sustainable to burn lot of thermal energy

Ghana’s Energy Debt Could Jump to $12.5 Billion If Not Addressed
The West African nation introduced energy bond sales in 2017
Some independent producers have taken steps to cut tariffs

We will only know for sure once sleepy Buhari wakes up.

Recently the Nigeria senate woke up and claimed some countries owe them 10B dollars in unpaid energy bills.

It appears - Banking and Energy sector - continue to be your albatross. Maybe you should consider ramping up utilities bills and metering everyone to reduce systemic energy problems.

Dr Bawumia said the accusation that direct COVID-19 expenditure, which amounted to GHC 12.0 billion--GHC8.1 billion in 2020 and GHC 3.9billion in 2021--was the reason for the crisis could not be true as two major items, the Banking Sector Clean up (GHC 25 billion) and the Energy Sector Excess Capacity payments (GHC 17 billion) had accounted for the increased debt stock.

vankelvin:
Is Ghana oweing Nigeria Gas?

Evidence please