₦airaland Forum

Moh247:
Like Dariye and the other Governor Buhari jailed or Dasuki that was locked up?

See Tinubu has nothing to loose here .. his Lagos cashcow is safe, PDP couldn't touch him for 16 years Atiku can't do shitt. So it boils down to Northern Governors interest

Now I understand you people really don't know he North,Dariye is a Northern Christian, an Arne. Muslims in the North don't care about them.

the northern governors you are talking about have no political value in the North, all of them came into power because of Buhari, all of them.Once Buhari steps Down, the North Muslim voter will vote for his brother.

colorsofrainbow:
I'm glad you realise what malami has done to this country

They all know that APC has failed, they also know that the APC candidate will be a failure, they only support him because of what they will benefit from him.

tesppidd:
Forget all the noise about Obidient, Atikulated whatever.

The election is Bola Tinubu's to lose. All the insults and denigration he receives only tend to strengthen the resolve of his fans and followers. Most of those who insult him wouldn't vote for him anywayS even if he was saintly and perfect.

And the only way he loses is if one of Atiku and Obi steps down for the other.

If they both run, Tinubu is the President 2023.

No sentiments about this.

Aside Yorubas and mainly Yoruba Muslims, who are Jagaban supporters, don't tell me you guys are depending on North votes, these people will clearly shock you, try and come down to the North and hear what they are saying about your candidate.

Ibkhaleel:
They (Ndigbo) are urging their people and sympathizers to "waste" their votes on Peter Obi... And we say, 'what a good riddance

Haha, the number of non Igbo's supporting Obi is greater than that of Igbo's supporting him, you can't say so of the APC man where only Yoruba Muslims make up 80 percent of his supporters base.

Moh247:



Can someone like El Rufai afford to loose Kaduna to PDP with Senator Shehu Sani and others waiting patiently to demolish every single properties he owns , PDP under EFCC might lock up Malami forever without trail

Ganduje that chased of Sanusi, and rubbished Kwankwaso after been caught taking bribe on camera knows if PDP win, his own has ended Kpatakpata

Imagine Bala Hadiza Mohammed a small girl that confronted Atiku and removed NPA contract Atiku has been enjoying from him only to make Tinubu acquire INTELS, Atiku will either marry her as payback or send her to Kirikiri

You want Lootimi Ameachi to allow PDP to come and fustrate his life with his bogus Chinese contracts

What of Professor TraderMoni

Or Yusuf the Okada rider

APC Northern Governors can't afford to loose 2023



.

You clearly don't know the North, in national affairs, it is one North, they go to their mosque and settle their difference.

Nebes:
Be doing whatever your hands find to do but start tithing. Your giving is your ladder out of this hole.
If you don't have energy to pray, attach yourself to those who have.

Oga person say him dey owe loan shark, you say make him give money for church, him never even chop.

wiseoneking:
Tinubu will win only Osun, Oyo, Ogun, Ekiti, ondo, Boronu, Katstina but will get upto 30% in Kano, jigawa and KADUNA where he will massively shared votes with kwankwoso and Atiku, with Atiku leading the pack. There is no go area for him in the SS and SE and NC but a great move in kwara and Niger. While obi may be able to scrap 25% of enlightened, liberal Yoruba Muslim and majority yoruba Christians, Tinubu will woefully failed in the SE like Buhari that hardly get 5 % in ANAMBRA etc. Thesame goes to SS.

Summary for Asiwaju: will win in 5 states in the NW, 30% in Kano, KADUNA, Jigawa, kwara and Niger. This can't get him any where. Atiku and Kwankwoso influence will break him off and cut his votes in pieces.
Atiku and obi will struggle it out for Abuja while Lagos is sure for Obi taking an edge over Tinubu and Atiku.
The whole SE, SS and Lagos for Obi. Majority Christians states in NC like Benue, Plateau, Taraba, southern KADUNA locked down for him while Atiku may follow behind. While Adamawa, Gombe SOKOTO, kebbi, will be no go area for obi and Adan the BATsin.

Even if obi looses the 25% votes in the NW, he will still win like Jonathan that lost all and still won. Obi needs just 20% votes in NW.

Obi will not win Benue, he will get 30 percent in Gombe and Bauchi. Atiku will win Benue.

NigeriaIsGreat:
I am a Nigerian. Where i came from shouldn't be your business nor your headache

Besides, where is the lie in what i put up there biko?

An average IGBO man and woman are resentful, hateful, spiteful, bittered et al

t is not hidden. It's crystal clear to every well meaning Nigerians

OMO Yoruba no die abeg, we will not vote nor support your god Tinubu, and for your information, you will get the shock of your life in 2023 when hausa Fulani will all vote Atiku. Keep denying your tribe.

vhykeeytor:
What is bad in Ibos having a presidential candidate. Is Tinubu not a yoruba agenda of supporting Buhari a known failure into power, making Nigeria the poverty capital of the world to pave way for him. He even quoted that if Buhari presented a nepa bill as certificate , Yorubas would vote for him. Did you not vote for a certificateless man as an agenda to present someone whose certificate were kidnapped by unknown soldiers? Akitu is also a fulani agenda to keep power in the north. Kashim Shettima is a Kanuri Agenda to get Boko Haram to the corridors of power...d if anything happen to asiwaju to take power. So what's bad in Ibos having an agenda?

I started fearing Yorubas more in this election period. They believe in EMI Lokan and will vote for Tinubu because he is Yoruba but want Igbo's and Hausa to abandon Obi and Atiku/Kwankwaso for their man. Cry babies.

[quote author=IgOga post=115314393]Okay
1. Governance - any unbias Nigerian will tell you that Tinubu was excellent as a governor...considering the huddle Obasanjo place before him as governor. Lagos State allocation was withheld...Tinubu couldn't complete many of the things he started (like BRT buses etc) for lack of funds but Tinubu solve the ultimate problem of money. He worked on Lagos IGR...he took tax collection to private companies...Alpha Beta started collecting the taxes more efficiently and from mere N600 million per month IGR rose to N15 billion per month.....Obasanj and PDP power over Lagos was broken...Lagos can survive without Abuja...what a shock to Obj and the PDP...and that system today generate over N51 billion

2. Vision - Tinubu is progressive in the true sense....with his influence Dangote refineries is being built in Lagos.....Eko Atalantic city was one of his visions......He created many local government administrations, RSS, LASTMA etc helping the governance of Lagos....and attracted many local and foreign investment into Lagos...Today Lagos economy is not compared with any other state in Nigeria but with Countries in Africa and Lagos stands as the 5th largest economy in Africa.

3. Building leaders - Tinubu is well known for raising people.....most of his commissioners continue to be relevant in Nigerian politics.....Osibanjo the current VP was Tinubu's commissioner, Fayemi the governor of Ekiti state was one of them......He helped Babachir become SGF and many more.... even when Buhari and the cabal sidelined him he still chaired Buhari's campaign in 2019 returning him to office as president.....Tinubu has raised people from all regions and tribes of Nigeria....no tribalism with him when it comes to raising leaders.....Many have accused Osibanjo of only helping his family members and friends

There are many more but Tinubu is miles ahead of Osibanjo and you cannot compare both of them in terms of leadership, governance and people development.

You guys are funny, Obasanjo withheld which Lagos money, is that what Tinubu told you? no wonder you support him, Lagos state allocation was never withheld, Obasanjo withheld Lagos State local government allocation for four months because Tinubu created fraudulent local governments areas.

Did I hear you say Tinubu influence made dangote build refinery in Lagos? No it was Tinubu that made Facebook bring their office to Lagos, do you even k ow business at all? did Tinubu sponsor Dangote refinery? infact was Tinubu the governor when dangote started building his refinery?

You just said that Tinubu made people governor, you should be ashamed because I am ashamed for you, how can you praise a man that imposes governors on the people, a man who chooses men that will keep inflating hardship on you, una well so? Suffer no dey tire you?

So you want to tell me that you like the way one man imposes who governs your state? I thought una wise sef.

Built2last:
As INEC has published voter register by regions, Obidients should not worry.

Go and check, APC Got 55% Vote in Lagos, PDP got 44% in 2015 presidential election. Labour Party and Obi effect will shake Lagos this time around
Lagos may have a high voter registration but non indigenes and disgruntled people against Tinubu makes over 60% of the registered voters.

Let's analyse objectively.

Also a Presidential aspirant can still get 22m Votes without winning in the North West this has happened in 2011presidential election

Goodluck in 2011, he didn't win in those strong northern states, he won the election with 22 million votes, losing woefully in States like Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Niger, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara

I am revealing this secret so we can all understand that no region has any monopoly on votes...A surprise might just happen in 2023. This is the statistics Peter Obi & Datti Baba-Ahmed are looking at and it’s quite promising.

Don't allow anyone fool you 2023 election is very much open.

Few factors have further opened the race.

1. The new electoral act makes it more difficult to rig the election.

2. INEC now has over 96 million registered voters. Nigeria since 1999 has never recorded 50 million people come out to vote in any election.

Meaning there are over 50million voters who have either been averse or cared less. Today, hunger and poverty is resetting brains. Insecurity is driving people up the wall of dissatisfaction. Those people might choose to vote now to express their frustration.

The Northern voter is left with 4 choices. Vote Tinubu For APC, Vote Atiku for PDP, vote
Kwankwaso for NNPP or vote Yusuf Datti Ahmed for Labour party. The Northern vote is clearly split into four.

The chances of OBI is higher than all others.

I get tired of explaining to them that the North are not important in elections. We saw it in 2011, they forget that out of every 100 votes coming out of the North, Christians have 35.

With this numbers I honestly don't see how Tinubu will win.

Tinubu can only get 50 percent of Lagos vote, 90 percent Oyo votes, 20 percent Kano votes, 35 percent Kaduna votes and 50 percent Bauchi votes. I don't see him getting .ore than that.

Atiku will get 10 percent Lagos votes, 35 percent Delta votes, 20 percent Bauchi votes, 60 percent Benue votes, less than 10 percent in both Kano and Kaduna.

Obi will get 40 percent Lagos votes, 90 percent Anambra votes, 70 percent Rivers votes, 35 percent Kaduna votes, 60 percent Delta votes, 20 percent Bauchi votes and less than 15 percent in Benue.

The truth is that 2023 elections will be based on religion and the good deed of Buhari towards the Christians, so don't expect anything short of that.

FreeStuffsNG:
This settles it.

Once again, I am not surprised, Anambra is the least of the top 10.

This clean data further show that the major 3 tribes by population are Hausa, Yoruba and Fulani.

From another clean data from biometric linked to GSM numbers, 80% Igbo population live in the 5 Igbo states that make up the South East. That is why Igbo communities in the South East are the least diversified.

20% live outside SE and most live in states bordering the 5 SE states like Rivers, Delta, Kogi, Benue.

Fewer Igbo live in far away places like Lagos, Abuja, Kaduna and Kano. That is why even if elections are conducted iin those far away states ,Igbo can not determine the outcome.

SW and NW are already in the kitty for Asiwaju Tinubu.

HE Atiku can have SE with the least populous zone with the least number of registerd voters as usual
2023 victory is done and dusted for Asiwaju Tinubu.

Once again, politics of lies, bigotry and hate l'ule.
Check my signature for freebies!

Haha fewer Igbos in Lagos and Abuja? are you living in a village?

Yoruba and their make me happy analysis.

deeva2:
So you think all Christians are gullible like you..

TINUBU/SHETIMA 2023

I laugh at your ignorance, save two months allowance that Tinubu gives you to support him, travel to me and see things for yourself. You dear not mention PDP at federal level or APC at all to North East Christians.

Winters23:
Truth be told, Peter Obi is a legitimate threat to the other candidates and they know it.

PO already have SS/SE in the bag, Lagos with largest voters will be split between Tinubu and PO with some leftover for Atiku.

Middle belt (please don't call it north central) will swing at any direction.

So in summary Tinubu built his political capital around NE/NW. A good plan except that Atiktu and kwakwanso have same plan.

So expect both camps to team up against PO in the campaign train because the only thing they can campaign with is saying there's no polling unit on Twitter, no structure, etc.

I laugh when people say NE vote is for APC and PDP. NE votes will be split between LP, PDP and APC, Christians in North East constitute over 40 percent of voters, and those votes are for Peter Obi. Infact Taraba is 90 percent Obidient.

Ibkhaleel:
Update on Voters
Registration...
Abia, Imo and Enugu = 1,190,118
Only Katsina = 1,232,113

The North will always determine who wins the presidential Election

Votes from Kano, Borno, Katsina, Yobe,
Gombe and Lagos will completely neutralise South East and South South.
l am not stopping you from casting your vote for your preferred. I just needed to give you this info on time.


And the north will never support a cursed person from a cursed tribe....Shege Ipop sympathezer...

I believe this statistics is is from your bedroom. The days of propaganda is over, look at Yoruba claiming North votes, so you think northern Muslims will leave Atiku and Kwankwaso and vote for Tinubu? in your dreams.

parkervero:
Ah! Thank you.
Taraba is a bit far from the West.

It is 2 days journey from Lagos.

VictorUSA:
Can you come down to Taraba state?

Is there job in Taraba that he is coming for? ABI na excellence or Crystal teaching job of 30k that you will go home with 15k after all illegal deductions?

Win12345:
Very true, cheapest in the whole Nigeria

Have you heard of Northeast Nigeria before? Problem with you guys is that you don't travel.

wiseoneking:
I think it's because of the porr standard of houses there in which many are not even painted.

No mind them, Osun is cheap simply because it's poor, no Economic activities, those expensive States are like that because it has more Economic activities.

You stay in States like Osun, you standard of living keeps decreasing. Na when you Osun with your 10 million and e no reach by you land for Delta, or lagos ghetto you go know say Osun na wash.

gebest:
You are very correct Osun is the cheapest state to leave in the south if not in Nigeria as a whole sef. I have being there couple of times, it beat my imagination if Osun is even in Nigeria sef.

In Nigeria?

VladimirPutiin:
Tinubu alignment with the north Made Buhari President. And he did that because of 2023.
Anyone who comfortably wins the NC, SS/SE and some votes from the SW will win the election. Obi should focus more on the NC and SW. the NE/NW is no go area. The SS/SE is already in the bag for him.

Mark this bro.

Obi will get atleast 5 million votes from these states:
1. Kaduna
2. Taraba
3. Adamawa
4. Bauchi
5. Gombe
6. Niger

These are states in the NE and NW, but I tell you from someone who base in the NE that obi will do well there. The Christians in those states who make up 40 percent of voters, save for Taraba where Christians voters is 90 percent see 2023 election as a do or die, they will never vote for a Muslim.

Yorubas have the opportunity to correct the wrong they did in 2015, but they are now trying to make a bigger mistake in 2023, with this Muslim Muslim ticket, Ven the Yoruba Muslims won't be safe.

The truth is that Yorubas are cowards who won't dare go against their masters Fulani but will form warriors against Igbo's.

If Yorubas can put 20 percent of energy they use in destroying Igbo business in Lagos into fighting Fulani, buy now they wound have been free from Fulani captivity.

I come in peace.

Starcrest1:
This analysis is on point. But let me add something, You could see how northerners voted Buhari always even though he changes party like water, parties without structure. This is for the structure people.

Secondly this time around, three people that will share the northern votes are Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso, so I wonder how they will be banking on the bulk votes there. Obi is winning this unless two people steps down from the three I mentioned above.

Thank you very much, I have been lazy to open a thread about this structure of a thing.

In 2011, Buhari formed his own party, CPC with no S talk more of structure, he got 12 million votes from the North, here they are talking about structure. Who structure help, when they talk about structure, they mean people that can sponsor vote buying.

Abdu81:
this election is going to change alot of things, especially views, when you remove the north central states how many core north states remains.

What are you saying, come to the Northeast, 40 percent of voters will not vote PDP and APC, I am not saying this out of sentiments but that's the fact on ground.

3ple9iner:
calculate the number of voters in the North and that in the South, you would get your answer.

A candidate can get 1m+ in the north and his closest rival could get 800k+ or 1m too.

In the south only few states can vote of this.


Also in the North, there is usually no voter apathy like in the south, though I believe it would change in this election.

You will also find that in the South.

Kano, Kaduna and maybe Katsina are the only States you have that number, while in the South, Rivers, Cross River, Lagos, Anambra also have that number.

Don't be deceived by North propaganda, we saw what happened in 2011, Rivers had more votes than the so called Kano.

Oghene1st:
I always tell people that if the South is United, the core North will be a slave to the South forever. If you check the voting pattern, Plateau and Taraba always lean towards Southern Candidates. Also likely is Benue, Kogi and Kwara because these ones don't consider themselves Northerners.

Once the South is United for a candidate, the above mentioned northern states will tilt towards Southern Candidate come 2023.

But since the South is divided, the South East and South South (Christian dominated parts in the South) have upper hand in wooing Christian dominated Northern state of Taraba, Plateau and Benue for Obi by religious campaign while Kogi and Kwara will definitely go for Tinubu. Then, Obi, Tinubu and Atiku can share the votes in core North. Obi should use Christian base campaign in the core North so that Christian voters in Adamawa, Nasarawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi, Yobe, Kaduna, etc can vote Obi while Tinubu uses Muslim/Muslim ticket to steal those Muslims in Muslim dominated states in North like Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Niger, etc.

The truth is, I am one of those southerners that don't see the north as threat to us. History is there. We are talking about civilian admin, not military. Buhari couldn't have won without South West in 2015 and 2019.

South should start seeing themselves as kingmakers in this country, because we are.

As it stands, Atiku is the 3rd force.

I laugh at South low self esteem, the North don't have the numbers when you remove Christians vote from the North. We saw it in 2011. The North Muslims won't smell presidency if the South and North Christians vote in one voice.

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

This guy is from the so called North,ad you think his analysis is one sided. You people fail to understand the North.

The North Muslims don't have the numbers they claim, atleast we saw it 2011, where they all voted Buhari and he lost by 12 million votes, if the South and Northern Christians are united, the Northern Muslims will not smell presidency again.

The North noticed this, then they reached out to Tinubu and Ameachi to break the South votes.

Tinubu thugs will soon bring it down.

I beg to disagree, Obi came into national politics in 2014 immediately he stepped down as Governor, GEJ saw him as a worthy addition to his Economic team, from then, Obi have become popular till now. It was because of Obi competency and popularity among the youths and well meaning Nigeria that Atiku used him as VP just to get more votes which he did.

I hear PDP members calling Obi social media and Twitter politician, forgetting that out of the over 11m votes Atiku got in 2019 was from these same Twitter and social media voters.Atiku lost almost all the northern votes, Southeast and South South was his strong hold, and the same people he is calling Twitter voters, let's see how he gets vote from Southeast and South South.