₦airaland Forum

Pained losers!

Atiku and his Atikulosers thought elections are won online forgetting that only about 40% of PMB’s supporters are indeed active online.

Self deceit is when the consultant you paid millions of dollars to determine your chance at the polls told you two weeks before the election that “you don’t have the numbers to defeat Buhari” but you still believed a miracle could make you win the election.

Wailing unlimited is allowed.

PassingShot:
It's only a matter of five weeks to the general election of 2019 which is a straight contest between PMB of APC and Atiku of PDP. In 2015, I did this thread and was successful to a very high degree (more than 90% success, you may want to read it here https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective).

In this year's prediction and analysis, I have considered political developments that we have witnessed till this moment in arriving at my prediction for each state. Notwithstanding, anyone who feels he/she has better information to change the outlook is free to say so and we will see what impact such can have on the overall result.

The prediction/projection is based on some assumptions and calculations stated below:


1. I have considered each party's strength and performance of 2015 general election in predicting their 2019 performance. I have actually put up the result of 2015 in this analysis.

2. Average voters turnout in 2015 was about 43% throughout the country. Each state's voters turnout for 2019 has been projected in line with that of 2015 except in cases where the turnout was lower than 43% national average that I have used the national average figure (43%).

3. 5% of the projected total votes have been allocated to other candidates including Sowore, Moghalu, Oby Ezekwesili, Durotoye, Olawepo Hashim and co. I don't think they will get more than that combined.

4. No party is projected to score anything close to 90% or 95% in any state as we witnessed in 2015. Most of the factors responsible for that anomaly are no longer in the mix in 2019.

5. Toss-up states aka battleground states have been given to the party I think will eventually win the state but with small margin (not more than 5% win margin).

Note: This prediction/analysis may be updated as we approach the election if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

This prediction has turned out to be about 90% accurate with the election results for 2019 presidential contest. The overall win margin is still about 4 million votes between Atiku and Buhari.

Respect sir.

donstan18:
You are expected to experience evil when you celebrate evil.

This is just the beginning of next level.

Boko and Fullani are still preparing.

Your frustration will soon progress to depression. Keep gathering useless “likes” on NL and be thinking you’re making sense.

Sunofgod:
They are either corrupt or blind....,

You are either confused or in cyfia pains

Good to know. Time to bring inbfew fresh hands including:

Akpabio
Ambode
Aregbesola


I think the following people need to go:
Shittu
Split Fashola’s ministries into two - Power and Works+Housing
Malami

The Security Heads should be reshuffled too

Before nko?

NgeneNkwenu:
I know the election was massively rigged by APC and INEC but I don't care. PDP can go to court for all I care.

Congratulations my president.

Rigged? How please?

Changethechain:
ATIKU LOST BECAUSE BUHARI RIGGED THE ELECTION IN KATSINA,KANO,YOBE, ETC...SO SONT TELL US THIS CRAP...WHY CANT THEY ANNOUNCE THE RESULTS THAT WAS GOTTEN FROM THE POLLING UNITS..WHY CHANGE RESULTS..WHY DELAY THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF RESUT FOR DAYS...ATIKU SHOULD FORM A PARRALLEL GOVERNMENT,PERIOD.

Give us the results of the polling units that were not announced?

Sore losers!

skentelelady:
Please just keep quiet. We know your type. Why are you blaming Atiku now? Honestly you sound like an hypocrite and that's what you are.

I couldn't even read all the jargons you wrote up there

Atiku announced before election he would sell NNPC and you still went ahead to vote for him.. Then you came here blabbing nonsense about selling it to himself and friends

Atiku has several corruption and fraud cases around his neck before election, yet you went ahead to vote for him

Atiku didn't win his polling unit because you didn't know he was not popular in his hometown. What nonsense talk is that?

In all you knew Atiku was was a no no but because of your hatred for buhari, you we the ahead to vote for Atiku. You people who voted For Him and still come back to cry had I know are all hypocrites and f00ls

If Atiku had won, would you come here to write these rubbish about being corrupt, NNPC etc

Like Atiku like his voters and supports. Thieves and corrupt bigots

Very brilliant of you. Imagine her saying Atiku was not prepared for the “rigging” as if there was indeed any rigging. Common sense should tell Atikulosers that you can’t claim to have been rigged in an election where you were defeated in your own polling unit; same with your major supporters including OBJ, Kwankwaso, Buba Galadima and so on and so forth.

Ikio:
E was unpopular becos north hates restructuring, they hate anything good... don't give any northern begger money. Let them suffer joor.

Dangote of Nairaland, your head is paining you for real.

Keep accumulating NL “likes” as you did before the election to massage your ego.

Nonsense.

Sharming95:
Definately dis ain't election....anybody dat tink it an election is totally deluded...rather d two major party tested dia Rigging strength....
APC aving learn well 4rm its master PDP in d past is nau paying d later back in it own coins...
The two parties rig...and d best rigger won....No one shud complain abi die bcuz of any politician...it doesn't worth it...and for dose calling for violence and protest cuz of d election...day shud tink it twice bcuz if it happen d Atiku and Buhari and other politicians go move with dia extended families...if possible dem fit carry dia cows and chickens in dia farm noin body....we will b d one at d receiving end...most of us who don't even knw d road to airport not to talk of procedure in collecting visa...Think twice...d next tin yhu'll yhur Dubai landlord address Nigerians 4rm Dubai... don't fight bcuz of d chicken change day promise yhu dat won't last yhu for four months not to talk of four years....don't b d agent of dia selfish interest whereby after getting dia after d struggle day will still end up looting yhur future...day ain't worth dying for....either Yoruba...Igbo abi Hausa...and minority groups let see ourself as one...d love dat exists btw us shudn't go down d drain bcuz of a few section of d society....let use Venezuela�� and Libya ��as case study...lets learn d international observer won't be here to save yhu wen d wahala start na dia ppu dem go evacuate Rwanda comes to mind...tink it twice...let leave above dis election results...
we d masses are d winner don't let d few ruling class turn us d majority for dia own selfish interest...ma own one million dollar advice

The suggestion this election is being won or lost because of rigging is utter nonsense!

If it was rigged, the return will be far higher than we see in each party’s stronghold.

LiveByNight:
Actually I just stated facts
To be honest I have done relatively very well financially in Buharis government but it is the uncertainty and inconsistent government policies that worries me.

And the fact that there are numerous killings that the government seems not to be able to control

My dislike for buhari has nothing to do with my personal well being because on the contrary I have and am doing well

Buhari is just not a good leader

Your opinion is that of the minority. We the majority are of different opinion. And in democracy, majority always their way.

LiveByNight:
Nope they rigged by counting manual votes despite asking for over N200 billion to conduct an election

This shows that this country is finished and should be burnt to the ground

If it was manual voting why not use just N500 million. For the elections?

This is a sham that has been rejected by even the international community

Sanctions loading

Buhari will not the accepted as the winner internationally

You’re obviously in severe pain

magoo10:
Good one
Atiku making unexpected inroads in the southwest.

He won Oyo by 1,490 votes and you call this one victory?

GemstoneJs:
I love atiku, nobody can have worse economic policies than buhari, the only reason i voted buhari in 2015 was the integrity and anti-corruption wave he was riding on, or more like i was frustrated with the massive corruption going on under GEJs admin...

Bu corruption till APC is voted out...
Even if Atiku loses, i'm satified the will of the people prevailed, especially in ss and se, in south-west that was to be on lockdown for buhari, it was a tight battle, close margins across the region, it shows The Yoruba people are really educated and aren't tribal bigots as some online imbecit even the reason i voted him has been defeated, Nigeria is just as corrupt, if not worse than GEJs regime, we won't hear the full details of theles tend to potray them, they have the voice of their own and many aren't satisfied with this administration....
To the South-west, You all fought hard and fought well Nigeria has seen your efforts

To SS and SE, no be today wey dem know say we tire for APC especially SE, since 2015 sef..
To NE, NW and even NC...... i don't even know what to say sef..(only Plateau votes really reflected what has been going on in the region in the past 4years, Kudos to Plateau for resisting tyranny)


at this point lets keep watching and hoping for the best...
our God is a living God
Atiku go be our [b]president [/b]las las

No one is interested in your waiting

Delta North is clearly for Atiku and I must admit Buhari has done well here.

Expect APC to massacre Atiku in Delta South and Delta Central.

Delta will be very close and it’s a very bad news for Atiku and PDP.

herzernIsHere:
Are you sensible bayii?

Which votes is he dividing? Even if he successfully gathers 40% here in Sokoto. Where exactly will he consolidate on that? SE? APC has about 2 declared senators already.

SS? PMB might even get 40-45% in Delta and Akwa Ibom.

I swear to my GOD. Atiku is not getting above 1 million marginal votes from any state! That can't be said of Buhari. KANO and KATSINA is bae.

PS : I'm particularly disappointed in SW votes. C'mon y'all. PMB did well for us.

The Sw governors are largely responsible for the “poor performance”. From Ajimobi lording things over the party to the extent that many top party men left the party; to Amosun and even Aregbe failure to pay salaries. Akeredolu is surprising though. I think he’s fighting dirty with Tinubu.

buspid:


Final result for Presidential election in Kwara

APC - 308,984
PDP- 138,184

O to ge indeed!

nameo:
In Gombe, Atiku already got 37% of the declared results.

I hope you know he will get more than 40% in Kaduna.

From the results so far in Kano, it is around 30%.

I have not calculated Bauchi but he has already won a few LGAs there.

While are you mentioning Katsina, Yobe and Borno. I thought I already conceded those

My friend, you should really be worried for Atiku already. Where will he make up the lost ground from? Do you have an idea of what Buhari is doing in Delta state? APC has won two Senate sits in Abia already and I’m sure that will give good votes to Buhari there too. Akwa Ibom will also make up for some of the SE votes Atiku is banking on.

Remember, there hasn’t been any voter turnout of more than 50% in this election so far.

ozo13:
This card reader of a thing really stopped rigging to a large extend.no more bogus figures both from the southern and Northern states.Nice one INEC for insisting on only card reader.

I tell you. The card reader and insistence on its use is the master stroke against rigging. No more 95% voter turnout.

nameo:
He needs 30-40% IN NW and NE to beat Buhari. And he is already getting it.

The only states he will not get it are Katsina, Borno and Yobe.

I need you to take me up on this

Apart from Sokoto, post any confirmed presidential result in Borno, Kano, katsina, KD, Gombe, Bauchi, etc and lets see the percentages

Modecaih:
am sure happy atiku will get above 25% in kano,,,Godwilling my incoming president,,,PDP power

He needs nothing less than 40% across the NW and NE to stand a chance. He can’t get it!

APCsupporter:
See where i was giving pdp 70%

Thecable

ATIKU TAKES BENUE? After 10 LGAs, PDP's Atiku Abubakar is smiling in Benue state APC: 97,872 PDP: 111,457

I projected Benue for PDP at 60%. It seems they won’t even get that much

RexTramadol1:
Announced by?

Move away from Nairaland and follow the mainstream media.

franchasng:
Northern Muslims don't see these ones as born again Muslims, they see them as Kafirs who mix with Christians.

Another person northern Muslims will use to replace Buhari is El Rufai due to his religious extremism nature.

Up north, they value Islamic religion more than development, education or success

What about Atiku losing to Buhari in Oyedepo’s Canaan Land polling unit where his Christian followers disobeyed his clear instruction to vote for Atiku?

mknigeriagreat:
Just leave him to his sentiments. The moment I see a man debating serious issues like this in a religious way, I move away from them. I am a God fearing christian and I will vote for president buhari 1 milliom times. Does that make me a muslim? When the north voted obasanjo in during the 1999 elections was it because he is a fanatical muslim? An average northerner is a very honest person and truthful that will always make sides with honest, godly and truthful people. Has nothing to do with religion.

We need more objective people like you on this forum.

Buhari beat Atiku in Canan land of Oyedepo despite his instruction to his followers not to vote for him. Surely majority of those who voted there are Christians.

The earlier we start telling ourselves the truth the better for us as a nation.

Sirheny007:
The key is to slash the votes there considerably.
Atiku is doing extremely well.
Declare him winner already.

Stop deceiving yourself. Atiku is not even doing as well as Jonathan did in the North in 2015. He’s not getting 30% in most northern states announced so far.

Dannyset:
We won in Lagos but we didn't do well. The margin is very close but this shows Tinubu has a man who does not rig. He could have done that just to prove point.

APC 1.21m
PDP 1.08m

Hmmm. Really close but not too far from my 60/40 prediction

Impressive!

McStoic:
Which SE and SS states are you talking about? Keep on dreaming.

OUK just won for APC. I expect good number for the president there too. Same in Ebonyi.

Delta is returning big numbers for Buhari. Eso too.