₦airaland Forum

INVESTMENT ADVICE FROM AN UNLIKELY SOURCE

“You gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, and know when to run. You never count your money while you’ re sitting at the table, there'll be time enough for counting when the dealings done.”

Kenny Rogers

This focus on the short term is hard to reconcile with any fundamental view of investing. We can examine the drivers of equity returns to see what we need to understand in order to invest. At a one -year time horizon, the vast majority of your total return comes from changes in valuation—which are effectively random fluctuations in price. However, at a five-year time horizon, 80 percent of your total return is generated by the price you pay for the investment plus the growth in the underlying cash flow. These are the aspects of investment that fundamental investors should understand, and they clearly only matter in the long term.

James Montier in "The Little Book of Behavioral Investing"

I dey fear for our Naira o...

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/27545_ZENITH_BANK_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_SEPTEMBER_2019.pdf

Mpeace:
The scam called Aiico
They want to add 16billion more units.

If you entered this stock...
https://nairametrics.com/2019/09/12/aiico-insurance-to-increase-share-capital-by-80/

I am off insurance stocks till further notice. If that sector likes, it should deliver 100% returns in the next 12 months. I wont be back till the coast is clear for me.

UACN and UPDC Investor Conference Call
Lagos, Nigeria – 4 September 2019 - UAC of Nigeria PLC (“UACN”) and UACN Property Development Company (“UPDC”) will host a joint conference call for investors and analysts on Friday 6th September 2019
• 14:00 (Lagos; London)
• 9:00 (New York)
• 15:00 (Johannesburg).

This conference call will be held to discuss the joint announcement made on Monday 2nd September 2019 regarding recapitalization and restructuring plans. As a reminder, the announcement is available here.
Please confirm your participation by pre-registering online here.

Dial-in information
Please dial in 10 minutes before the scheduled start time to register your attendance. Dial-in numbers for the call are as follows:
• Nigeria: +234 (0)18889001
• South Africa: 0800 982 759
• UK: +44 (0)20 7043 4129 or 0844 873 8149
• US: +1-213-325-3283

Passcode: 934676#

Agbalowomeri:
Finally some sold enough in Guinness, no be small thing

Chibuking81:
Dangote sugar is heading to #6 junction soon. In this September most good and bad stocks will drop downward from their current price, final year result and dividend news expectation is still far.
Half year news and it interim dividend news has come and gone, and set a ground for investors onwards picking decision.

The short bull run that ended in 2018 actually started in Oct/Nov 2017. When it wants to happen it will happen and sometimes it will be for inexplicable reasons.

currentprice:
your opinion but try and go to fx thraed and ask about CP they also will have different opinion

before i even open my trade i post LIve chart telling every one this is what i want to buy or sell in so so time and i try to keep updating till i close the trade and we make money together.

this kind idea here na monkey hunting , NL push price bla bla bla

My brother just do your thing the way that makes you happy. Sometimes just click "ignore". Some people will be looking for information and they can't humbly ask but will be using "gra gra"

Anyway the riddle was fun for me. I had the stocks that lost prices for the 3 days but still couldn't figure it out. The Wanaj angle made me take a guess sha. Not that I am sure of the stocks he would never touch.

OBAGADAFFI:
Wow, thanks .

I think the same scenario is happening between Stanbic IBTC and GTB

Stanbic IBTC is selling higher than GTB, while GTB pay higher dividend.

Stanbic dey try too these days. Total dividend for 2018 was N2.50 (Interim N1 and Final N1.50) I am sure if you adjust for TVM the gap between it and Zenith/GTB will narrow further. Outstanding shares is less than 11 billion.

currentprice:
bro help urself i no day mention stock but solve d equation if u can. the stock is one of the stock oga Wanajo no day like to buy.

goodluck

I am liking the riddle. Is it "First" in doing some things?

currentprice:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/27454_CUTIX_PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_AUGUST_2019.pdf

The same rain dey beat everybody

Mcy56:
Agreed on the 'B' part.
'A' part, well, not in all cases.

I go dey follow you buper to bumper now. I don't care about Agba and the rest of them. .

dipoolowoo:
Stockbroker Blames Buhari for Recent Decline in Stock Market
https://businesspost.ng/2019/08/19/stockbroker-blames-buhari-for-recent-decline-in-stock-market/

Zenith Bank Grows H1 2019 Earnings by 2.92% to N331.6bn
https://businesspost.ng/2019/08/19/zenith-bank-grows-h1-2019-earnings-by-2-92-to-n331-6bn/

Oga well done o....

I am listening to the back and forth between you and Segun Agbaje at the Conference call.

dipoolowoo:
Stockbroker Blames Buhari for Recent Decline in Stock Market
https://businesspost.ng/2019/08/19/stockbroker-blames-buhari-for-recent-decline-in-stock-market/

Zenith Bank Grows H1 2019 Earnings by 2.92% to N331.6bn
https://businesspost.ng/2019/08/19/zenith-bank-grows-h1-2019-earnings-by-2-92-to-n331-6bn/

Who other countries go blame na?

****For those with interest in Guinness Nigeria Plc conference call for Full Year results. The results are yet to be released but should be out on or before conference call date*****


Guinness Nigeria Plc Conference Call – FY2019
You are invited to join Baker Magunda, MD/CEO Guinness Nigeria and members of the Executive team on the investors/analysts call to discuss in detail our F19 full year results.
Call details are below:
Title : Investor Conference for Guinness Nigeria - FY19 Full Year Investors Call
Date : Thursday, August 29, 2019
Time: 14:00 – 15:30 (WAT)
Participant dial in: +44 (0) 20 3003 2666
Password : GuinnessNG

*******For Those Interested in GTBank Half Year Conference Call*******


GTBank Plc Conference Call – 1H2019
The Bank will host a conference call for investors and analyst. The details of the calls are below
Date: Tuesday August 20th, 2019
Time: 1500 Hours (Nigerian Time)
You need to pre-register for the call
http://services.choruscall.za.com/DiamondPassRegistration/register?confirmationNumber=4620334&linkSecurityString=38328caae

veecovee:
I didn't get the last line

I also have a banking stock that is still in very good profit even at current price and I am wondering if I should sell and reinvest the money in other stocks. In the case of this stock I do not really believe it will drop much 'cos it has bucked the trend since last year.

".....as if this weren’t bad enough, Terry and Brad also examined the performance of a group of accounts where you need your spouse’s permission to trade. Those men who needed their wives ’ permission to trade outperformed the single guys. Unfortunately, those women who needed their husband’s permission to trade underperformed the single women. So not only are men bad traders, they are a bad influence as well."


James Montier in "The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How Not to be Your Own Worst Enemy"

No Wonder the ladies here are in hot demand. I better get closer.

veecovee:
This temptation get as it be ooooh. Do I sell dangflour at this point and buy some of these stocks that bear has wounded their prices, or would they out run my reach by the time dangflour registrars credit my bank account

I'm just confused. Can anyone advice?

Seek spiritual guidance . No pun intended.

I am on the same exercise about a banking stock that is in the money for me.

owoblow77:
I read somewhere that you could start buying if there are at least 3 days of more than 2% gain in the ASI, in a week. The pattern should repeat the following week. However, you need to discount for Dangcem & MTN. It signals that there is an inflow of substantial (foreign) funds into the market! Then u can start to think of pouring in cash. Even Zenith , I believe, has not done 2% daily, in the last 1 week, except today (Mondays I think are generally bullish). Overall, the ASI is still trending down wards. Personally, I will wait. How long a "waiting period" is, can only determined by the market.

There are too many theories to profit from NSE out there. Non works on a consistent basis. Sometimes its just pure chance.

Lol...OANDO..making risk takers money since 19 kporogidim.

Entry at your own risk though...

currentprice:
today look lik the beginning of 3days bonanza expecting. let see how the mkt close first

if we see 1st day bonazer, 2nd day always d best to load

Great Guy!

rebekah2011:
Continental Insurance Plc is to pay how much again. The stock is becoming more attractive

Is that process is still on? They had earlier revised it upwards to N2.01 but still ran into a road block with the regulators. With the current price levels, they may just suspend it and restart when it favours them.

currentprice:
those days that I use to open up. I still have the mark of d stones u pple threw me on my head.

What are the charts saying about Sterling Bank please.

Mpeace:
fcmb and fidelity fair price N2...? Lol. I think they are worth more than N4

Lol...don't always go with the analysts. Incidentally those two companies are the ones with the least deviations from average.


Fidelity: N1.76 - N2.80
FCMB: N1.45 - N2.15

Jerekre:
If it's not too much of a bother, can you please attach the fair price from the individual houses. Thank you

Sorry Bro..I didn't save the dataset as per asset manager. I just picked the figure and updated my fair price column as per companies under observation.

Some of original research reports have been updated here in the past and if you are interested in that I could upload some of them.

Deadlytruth:
Wicked guy!

Wicked ke? I mean am o. Who no like better thing.

The attachment is for those interested in analysts calculated fair price for some stocks. The fair prices are an average from about 7 asset management houses.

In some cases the deviations from the mean vary so widely that it will be risky putting any reliance on the average. In other words this is for information purposes only and to keep the discussion on current market versus fair prices going. The FA guys will like this.

BullBearMkt:
...I'm not sure the info coming out from Diamond bank then was encouraging before acquisition showed face abruptly!

-this is not a call to buy ETI - e get wetin I dey look for. If I see it, I flow with it, else the waiting continues

When you sight that moon, just be your brothers keeper and let us know that it has been sighted

Some of us no sabi sight moon but we know how to fast once the moon is sighted.

Yayira:
My brother, if you see weytin my eyes see inside ccnn .. hmm
I bought because of dividend.. though they try to please us by paying with almost all the profit they made but the haircut no be here.. fidelity and Access also reduced their dividend

Yup...The bankers are smart. I think many of them will drop dividends this year in view of the barrage of new and potential directives from the CBN. In any case the argument will be that if stock prices do not improve from current levels this year a drop in dividend to a level that still yields 10%-11% is a good deal.


I expect GTB and Zenith in the worst case will hold dividend constant at 2018 levels. I strongly expect Access, UBA and STANBIC, FBN, FCMB to drop dividend while Fidelity may see marginal increase because of their shenanigans earlier in the year.

Many people are making an assumption that dividend will be at last year levels at the least. This may not hold as drop in dividend amount is not uncommon across companies.