₦airaland Forum

This Country needs serious prayers and divine intervention.....now our major means of generating revenue (oil) is going down the drain and some clowns will be chanting Sai Buhari like big morons......Nigeria needs serious miracle and Buhari's lack of tact on economic policies will not help matters in the coming days.

G

@ bloodyBLOGGER, I concur totally with your assertions, you took the words out of my mouth.

G

This is no news.....I knew all along that this will happen. State of lawlessness.

What a perspicuous analyses bereft of any biased submissions or jaundiced views. The nitty gritty of the subject matter were elaborately done without any witch-hunting or picking on anyone but innocently stating the FACT!

what I find quite amazing is the level of collective amnesia ravaging Nigerian youths to even think Buhari, a known fundamentslist, is the solution to our myriad of problems. Buhari's jumbo political promises so far can be said to be more dependent on SOPHISTRY and less on ECOBOMIC LITERACY AND EMANCIPATION which Nigeria needs urgently. What a pity.
Lalasticlala this is the type of topic that should grace the front page for intellectual dissection and discourse.

History is indeed a powerful medium

Shaftrod:
What's she thinking? Does she think that's a place where babies could be made?

You never can tell, she might want to give it a try.

queenblogger:
Welcome to the beginning of a New Year of the continuation of CHANGE in our beloved nation. I am aware that Nigerians have experienced a number of significant hardships over the past months. Living in the State House has not alienated me from your daily sufferings. I am aware of the lengthy queues at fuel stations and of the difficulties businesses have faced in acquiring foreign exchange.

These challenges are only temporary; we are working to make things better. When I presented myself to you as a presidential candidate and asked you to vote for me, I wanted to be a leader who keeps his promises. I wanted to be a leader who restores the people's hope in those elected to serve them. I wanted to be a leader who initiates positive and enduring CHANGE.

I am still totally committed to being that kind of leader. Unforeseen circumstances and other distractions notwithstanding, I shall still do my utmost best to keep every promise I made to Nigerians during my election campaign. In the past seven months since our inauguration on May 29, 2015, my administration has focused on laying the right foundation for the CHANGE you voted for during our historic presidential election. Nigerians will in due course begin to enjoy the fruits of all our ongoing work.

The effective and efficient implementation of our 2016 budget proposals will address many of the socio-economic issues that are of current concern to our people. One area in which Nigerians, especially those in the northeast, have already begun to experience major CHANGE is in the war on terror. I commend our Armed Forces for significantly curtailing the insurgency which has ravaged the northeast of Nigeria over the past few years.

However, there is still a lot of work to be done in the area of security. Our Armed Forces will maintain, consolidate and build on their successes in the war against Boko Haram and violent extremism. This government will not consider the matter concluded until the terrorists have been completely routed and normalcy restored to all parts of the country that have been adversely affected by the Boko Haram insurgency.

Our crackdown on corruption will continue to be vigorously undertaken. I urge the courts to support our efforts and help in the recovery of stolen funds by speedily concluding trials and showing that impunity no longer has a place in our country.

There is much work to do in other areas as well and I have charged all my ministers and other appointees to ensure that Nigerians experience positive changes in their lives in 2016. We must reduce our country's reliance on oil. We must diversify our economy.

And we must do all we can to promote job creation. Our challenges are many but our determination to succeed is strong and unshaken. So too is our confidence in God. I wish you all a very

Happy New Year.
MUHAMMADU BUHARI


Source: http://www.042express.com/2015/12/new-year-of-continuation-of-change-read.html

I hope Bukola Saraki and our Judges (especially at the Supreme Court) read this part. February 19 come quickly.

viviangist:
My New year Resolution , No Hunt for FP Again , presentation of Quality Content on my Blog and Nairaland , But we go still dey Quarrel oooo if u need am , Love you Nigerians .... Vivian Gist

You are such a free spirit.....keep it up, happy new year

DickDastardly:
Jona's prophesy about Ninevah never came to pass. Study your bible better

Oh that one, the City listened to the prophecy of warning from Jonah and were penitence for their sins and God had to forgive them.....the way he forgives us of our many sins, remember King Ahab too, when he recieved the message from Prophet Elijah.....so these are different scenarios you are painting bro...

If all eventually come to pass, then God had spoken through him but if not......foul foul foul.....FOUL!

emerged01:
Happy new year wailing wailer

Same to you jare my lying liar!

emerged01:
Kayode ogundamisi should go to hell.

You too

Sometimes I wonder the type of Country we found ourselves.....in M.K O Abiola's voice, 'politics is serious business' I don't think APC know this perhaps they thought politics is like a Tea Party.....like I used to say that, if Jonathan can endure being labelled; Jonad.aft, clueless, drunkard etc for 5 years by these same demonic APC goons, Buhari should farabale (endure) for Buhari, President Buhari, for the next 4 years. Hypocrites

Ishaku deserves his seat. Mama Taraba can wait till 2023.

Built2last:
It is shocking that sane minds who celebrated Yaraduas rule of law now celebrate his dictatorial tendencies.

I have apologised to all Nigetia for voting PMB. We should graduate from analysing every shortcomings of mr president on the prism of PDP-APC.

Can anybody tell me what our economic direction is from yesterday's media chat? Every question asked him on the economy, he referred to 1983...I don't get that part. He needs to be abreast with 21st century economic realities.

I have no clue how to handle planned family vacations abroad and business trips in 2016 because of the ban on cards. PMB said money is laundered using cards. I am not a politician and has never worked for the government. Why should I suffer for the sins of corrupt few.

I know you to be a die-hard fan of the General but this is what we (Gejites) saw in this man.....quote me anywhere Buhari is better a military Head of State than a Democratic President. Laugh out loud at ' those who celebrate Yar'adua's respect for rule of law are still the same celebrating Buhari's dictatorial tendencies....gross hypocrisy you may call it. Good morning.

Activa:
Brainless Buffoon Bigot,

This is from the Bible on how to know false prophets. Hope you can read:

Deuteronomy 18:20-22 ESV

And if you say in your heart, ‘How may we know the word that the Lord has not spoken?’— when a prophet speaks in the name of the Lord, if the word does not come to pass or come true, that is a word that the Lord has not spoken; the prophet has spoken it presumptuously. You need not be afraid of him.

Brainless Buffoon Bigot? No that should not be, you have done the needful by quoting the appropriate portion of the Bible to educate a 'brother' and you will not lose your reward for it. Thumbs up bro.....refrain from abusive words

This is gross.....RIP to the dead.

Fraih:
No, i dont
Not up for a chat.

Fair enough then, have fun! You and emoticons shaaa.

Fraih:
Yes

Wao....do u wanna chat on whatzapp? Few things to discuss if you don't mind....

Fraih:
Oh, Thanks.
The strong face is for Iroko

Good oh never mind, Iroko is trying his best dear.....are you from Ondo State?

Fraih:
Modified. .. Gba sigbo!!!

I know it was a typo.....what about the part B of my post a little acknowledgment would suffice, don't you think so
NB: why the strong face this cool evening

Fraih:
Gba sogbo ni o
Tell Him to pay the salaries of workers that are pending.

Gba sogbo You can tell him yourself, you know what, you are beautiful.....

Tolexander:
egbon, e fi iyen sile jare!

AriGBESEsola no give me mouth to talk jare
Though he has some better school structures than this.

So na Governor name you spoil like that.....

Tolexander:
how many of such schools are in the state?

What is the situation of other public schools in the state.

Achievement is not prided on a structure!

You are from which State?

The Governor of the people!

This is what makes us (Ondo people) unique! I love my State to smithereens. Iroko gba sibe

This is freakingly interesting and hilarious ......I am waiting for Koro's next move

These are stark realities staring us in our faces that requires holistic approach and a well drawn out Marshal Plan not the beer parlour gist of Lai Mohammed that peddles "all is well" and "we are on top of the situation" mantra he is chanting when in actual fact the "the situation seems to be on top of them". I keep asking myself, should oil crash to $20 per barrel as projected here will the clown, Lai Mohammed keep blaming Goodluck Jonathan? This is not the time for this comedic administration to be selling fuel for N86.50 pet litre when the buying power of the Naira is at a low ebb. The situation is truly grim, happy new year in advance.

Festus Akanbi

With the sustained slide in crude oil prices due to glut of oil on international market, experts have warned that Nigeria must prepare for a less than $20 oil price scenario.


The warnings are coming on the heels of the new projection contained in the “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation with Iran” report released last week, which predicted that the price of crude oil could drop between $5 and $15 in 2016 owing to the prospective lifting of economic sanctions on Iran and the capacity of the Middle East oil producing country to roll out one million barrels of crude daily.


Prices of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) benchmark crude oil have fallen about 50 percent since the organization declined to cut production at a 2014 meeting in Vienna from a price as high as $110 to slightly lower than $38 at the weekend.


However, analysts who described the IMF projection as the worst case scenario, said the fact that Nigeria had benchmarked its crude oil price at $38 per barrel in 2016 budget had put the country in a tight corner.
They added that the President Muhammadu Buhari administration must be prepared for a scenario that could see oil sell for less than $20.


Director General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mr Muda Yusuf, explained that “If price of oil goes as low as $20 per barrel in the global oil market as predicted, then the impact on the Nigerian economy will be very challenging considering that the budget proposal for next year has benchmarked oil price at $38 per barrel. Current trend analysis require that government do some adjustments.


“Government may be tempted to borrow more, but borrowing is not a sustainable option; we already have a record high deficit at 2.2 trillion while debt servicing is taking as much as N1.3 trillion which is about 35 percent of revenue. Deficit is bound to go up with more borrowing. We are almost at our limit already.


“A more sustainable option is for government to come up with economic policies that will attract private funding in various sector. Quality of economic policy is very critical at this time to attract private investments so that private investors can take up funding of key projects in various sectors, especially in the infrastructure sector,” he said.


Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, in an interview told THISDAY yesterday that at $20 per barrel, it means Nigeria will no longer have margin on oil export, explaining however that there are other options available to the Federal Government to stay afloat.


He said that at $20 per barrel, many oil producing nations would go out of business, adding however, that last week pronouncement of the Federal Government to scrap fuel subsidy regime came at a right time.


He said government would have to tighten its belts further. According to Rewane, Nigeria is currently in an underwater situation, saying there is no cause for alarm as long as the country doesn’t stay in the same position for long.
According to a director with BGL PLC, Mr. Olufemi Ademola, “There are a few options available to the government but each with some not too pleasant consequences. The government could borrow to cover the gap from the potential oil revenue loss.

This would increase the fiscal deficit to above 2.16 per cent of GDP and the debt profile to more than 14 per cent of GDP. Although we have capacity for additional borrowing, it could have macroeconomic implication if the debt profile increases sharply just in one year. Should the government choose this option, it must be ready to deal with the consequent rise in inflation and exchange rate volatility.”

Explaining further, Ademola said another option is to aggressively pursue non-oil revenue drive such as taxes, levies and duties. While this would seem like an attractive alternative, it also has the tendency of being seen as anti-investment and anti-business as government taxes and levies reduces investment returns.
The analyst added that government could focus on cost cutting by reducing governance costs, which also may lead to cuts in salaries or staff rationalisation.


In his opinion, CEO, Excellon Capital, Diekola Onaolapo, said the key impact point for Nigeria should the IMF scenario play out would be a further downward pressure on government's oil revenue by c.47.0 per cent. This, according to him, would invariably force the government to either squeeze further income from non-oil sources, or increase its borrowing targets for 2016 to fund the budget.

This implies that the budget deficit would expand from the projected N2.22 trillion to about N2.59 trillion in 2016, which would in turn alter the capital - recurrent split of the budget to some extent as more provision would be made for debt servicing. He said the development also has the potential of crowding out private sector borrowings in the country as the government has already hinted of borrowing more funds from the domestic market visa-a-vis foreign markets to fund the 2016 budget deficit.


Another fallout of the scenario, according to him, is the fact that the benchmark price for the budget would be a heated debate in the National Assembly when deliberations on the budget start. This is due to the fact that oil prices are currently below the US $38/barrel benchmark used in computing the budget.


“However, going by the precedence of the current National Assembly in the last six months, the debate is likely to go along party lines which could see the party with the majority having their way in favour of the Executive arm of government,” he said.


Diekola warned that to avert a possible budget crisis, “the government would have to take some tough decisions. These, according to him, include the need to enhance overall efficiency of government and reduce leakages to the barest minimum. This would entail doing away with subsidies on petroleum products; ensure the nation's borders are properly policed to increase the revenue generating capacity of the Nigeria Custom Service (NCS) as well as expand the current tax bracket in the economy to boost non-oil income for the government. Some of these measures are already being implemented gradually, which is a positive sign for the economy.
“On the benchmark oil price, the government could explore the possibility of locking down the price of the Nigerian crude for the better part of 2016 to insulate the budget from price volatility in the international oil market.”


In his calculation, Ademola said by inference from the budget, it costs Nigeria about US$30 to produce one barrel of oil, hence the expectation of only N820 billion from oil revenue (at a net revenue of between US$8 and US$9 per barrel). Therefore, an average oil price of below US$30 is not economically feasible for the country and could be fiscally damaging as not only would it wipe out the projected N820 billion oil revenue, the government might also need to use revenue from other sources to cover the shortfall.


However, in spite of this, the BGL official cautioned the National Assembly against taking hasty decisions, saying, “The National Assembly would most likely adjust the oil price benchmark but they need to be well informed before taking any decision. Increasing or lowering the benchmark should be based on properly determined and defensible oil price projections.


“While the IMF is an authority to be quoted, it should be noted that even their projections follow marketrealities, which can change at any time. In August 2015, IMF's crude oil forecast for 2016 was US$50.40. By November 30, it was US$45.50 while on December 10, it went further down to US$42. Now based on the reality, IMF is forecasting something significantly lower. What this means is that if by January, any kind of shock drives oil prices higher, the forecast would change and most likely higher.”


According to IMF predictions, the bottom of the oil slide hasn’t yet been reached due to the fact that additional supply from Iran is still waiting on the sidelines. Iran – which is OPEC’s 2nd largest oil exporter, and 4th largest producer in the world – is waiting for the United Nations nuclear activity-monitoring period to elapse, and for the sanctions to be lifted, before unleashing its oil into the already flooded market.
It is estimated that Iran could increase its output by one million barrels per day, even as the global market is already oversupplied by up to two million barrels a day.


The IMF believes that this will result in the downward pressure of oil prices. Potentially prices might still fall by between $5 and $15 a barrel from the current price level.
Additionally, there are concerns about the USA lifting a ban on the exports of its oil, adding to the global supply, which is continuing to outstrip demand.


http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/why-nigeria-must-prepare-for-a-less-than-20-oil-price-by-experts/228938/