₦airaland Forum

raumdeuter:
E lo fokanbale

A ma gbe wale.
We need to make the sector profitable to encourage private investor into it

WhoDeyHause:
Would only his refinery be able to handle it?

larride:
You mean those that buy it at 1360 today will get it settled at 1668 in 12 months time?

Spy360:
How does your discussion relate to the fact that we do not really need a strong naira but a stable one.

Cc LordAdam16

LordAdam16:
I'm getting the distinct impression this will be a colossal waste of my time if I press on.

In February, while the CBN was clearing the last $2B in valid backlogs, reserves rose by $1B.
Then interventions resume in Mid March, CBN announced backlogs were cleared, reserves fell by $0.4B and you want us to start fishing for an excuse for the massive drop.

I will not dignify your last paragraph with a proper response.

You said and I quote



Then when I point out you're wrong.

You somehow spouted this:



You know what?! I can't.
Mea culpa. It was my error to obliquely assume you were making fact-based assertions.
I should have known better.

Cheers!

-Lord

raumdeuter:
All those NNPC scam refinery that we do yearly turnaround maintenance on should be sold

Let other private sector people too build refineries the more refineries, the more jobs less dependence on imported fuel

LordAdam16:
Far back in June 2023, Goldman Sachs demanded that interest rate be increased and backlogs cleared for liquidity to improve and unify the FX market rates. https://nairametrics.com/2023/06/15/fx-unification-goldman-sachs-urges-higher-interest-rates-and-clearing-fx-backlog/

Finally, in February 2024, Cardoso acquiesced. He increased interest rates, and more importantly, rate on short-term sovereign debt.
Like clockwork, FPI brought in their money.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/nigeria-sees-surge-forex-inflow-overseas-remittances-rise-2024-03-08
In total, the CBN has sold more than N5.6T worth of TBills in one quarter. That's more than the entire budget of the SW states. The circa N1T in interest due over the course of the year is the figure Nairametrics correctly quoted as an arguable cost of naira defense.
https://nairametrics.com/2024/04/02/naira-defence-to-cost-cbn-n1-01-trillion-in-interest-rates-from-q1-ntb-auctions/

Now, even when we're all witness to the rapid, verifiable effect of this policy in raising the naira's value; you're using the conditional "maybe" and making it seem like an unintended consequence.
Don't tell the CBN though. Just last Friday, Sidi-Ali could scarcely maintain her composure while informing the press that they had secured $1.5B in inflows following the latest rate hike to 24.75%. Further stating the inflows' essentiality in supporting the naira's rising value against the dollar.
https://guardian.ng/news/cbn-policies-rake-in-1-5-billion-in-march-naira-climbs-to-1285-to-dollar/

We're all going off whatever the CBN is putting out.
I highly recommend staying in the loop on this issue.

-Lord

LordAdam16:
I will not entertain willful ignorance.

Nothing about the reserves declining by $400m in 8 days signals "low volume".
https://www.cbn.gov.ng/IntOps/Reserve.asp

The circular for the last BDC intervention was dated March 25. That's a Monday.
https://nairametrics.com/2024/03/25/cbn-sells-forex-to-bdcs-n1251-1/
The previous trading day was Friday, March 22.
The intra-day low on Friday, March 22 was 1301.
https://businessday.ng/news/article/naira-shows-strength-as-fx-trading-week-ends/

Don't come at me with "alternative facts".
I expect you to have your ducks in a row before you dispatch a rejoinder.

-Lord

raumdeuter:
Dangote is buying crude at normal price other refineries elsewhere in the world are buying

He is spending the same amount to refine

The only difference is cost of shipping

Unless the FG can give him crude at discounted prices there is no way he can sell at significantly less without making a loss

The use of the refinery is the job and value chain he creates in the economy which foreign refiners economy have been enjoying

OasisX:


.......I swear. Did you read the defence of Nairametric owner after he was called out for his misleading headline?! Below is his response;

OasisX:


............Kalu Aja's effect. Nairametric also misinformed their followers with yeye headline yesterday.

LordAdam16:
Something has to give.
With the resumption of $ pegging, there's only so much subsidy they can pay before we become insolvent.
They'd play a game of hot potatoes with the different subsidies until something cracks or they maneuver their way to 2026.

The truly despicable development is dragging their feet on wage increase.
It's beyond scandalous now.

With that said, electricity subsidy has to go.
A country of 220m people wheeling a measly 4GW has no business paying electricity subsidy.
We can't clear gas debt of $1B, but we're to pay $2B per year on subsidy.
And unlike gasoline subsidy, they can actually stagger the removal and push the cost disproportionately to the upper class.

-Lord

OasisX:


.......see pitch invaders everywhere. Where is Osayi when you need him sef?! LOL!

GloriousGbola:
.

larride:
Dont comparison no even work like that.

El Rufai already raised Kaduna IGR to enviable heights before leaving office.

Last year, Kaduna made 82 billion naira from IGR.

Uba Sani should get its act together. Kaduna is among the highest state with IGR before he took over, he should explain to the citizens of the state how the IGR of the states has dried up.

raumdeuter:
If VAR overruled and revokes the PK will they remove the yellow

Sportsweb:
Mayor didn't hack any betting algorithm.

Here is what he is doing.

He doesn't bet on soccer which is very difficult to predict. He bets on mostly tennis and basketball.

He bets similar odd range - 100-500 odds

He stakes high: 200k-1M


He carefully select game, yes people do bring out their time to research game and check past records....

He loses a lot, he win rate is just 20% but it's enough to recover and make massive profit - why? (Because he stakes on higher odds with massive staking amount.

raumdeuter:
A difference from a bookie and a gambler

The Brentford owner might be onile wey dey collect bets similar to Bet9ja owner

Itsrm:
There's not much value to be gotten from M&A. If you add up from UBA downwards, I doubt it's up to 500bn. That's barely enough for two tier 1 banks.

Why do I have a feeling this 500bn will be reviewed downwards.

Itsrm:
Saw this. Banks like unity and jaiz bank are gone.

https://twitter.com/ugodre/status/1773465870221611233/photo/1

larride:
That's true but I believe they will raise the sum needed easily.

Access bank already announced this morning that they are going to raise $1.5bn for their expansion through rights issue.

Most of the tier 1 banks are already prepared for this recapitalization since Cardoso mentioned it during his first dinner night with bankers.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/nigeria-s-biggest-bank-plans-to-raise-1-8-billion-for-expansion?srnd=economics-v2

larride:
For the international spread, GT, Access, Stanbic IBTC, Zenith, UBA, First Bank will most likely meet the criteria.

Those tier 1 banks, most of them have a market capitalization of over 1 trillion or close to 1 trillion.

OasisX:


.......check below.

https://twitter.com/cenbank/status/1773458439911403713?t=ZqhH9S9kBjxf8KbVBA8jLQ&s=19[/quote]Thanks.

Let me read up

OasisX:



“For existing banks, the minimum capital specified above shall comprise paid up capital and share premium. For the avoidance of doubt, the new capital requirement shall NOT be based on shareholders fund”

PBAT is stlll Warning up, Nigeria must be fixed by all means possible.

OasisX:


.......Cardi B is different from Meffy. Operation step up or step out.

larride:
Law firms and investment banks about to eat good this period.