₦airaland Forum

larride:
Meanwhile the CBN has set a minimum of 500bn as capital base for banks.

Recapitalization of banks has started.

So many merger and acquisition about to go down in the banking industry.

International Spread- N500bn
National Spread - N200bn
Regional - N50bn
Merchant Banks - N50bn
Non-Interest Banks(National) - N20bn
Non-interest (Regional) - N10bn

Updated

Hmm...Another dollar injection coming in.

Naira may go on a strengthening spree for a while

Roland17:
Yes, cash outs are capped here, if that is your question

Oh ok,

Capped cash-outs and capped limits. Its fair then

Roland17:
If a betting company sets $100 as the highest (limit) amount for a prop, I can not wager $101, even if I have it because it will be declined. Without the limit set at $100, I could wager $1000 on that prop and if I win, it increases my cash out. Simply put, everyone is held to the same limit, irrespective of your pocket. That is the way the companies regulate what you can wager.

Quick question, Is there a limit on cash out here?

Cos if there isnt, then its almost the same to me. Think about it, there's no way you can bet an amount greater than your cash out on a single slip

Except i'm missing something most odds start at 1 right?

swiz123:
Nigeria is very underdeveloped. While organized retailing controls the major roads, these small scale retailers rule in the hoods.

So they are not losing much because majority of them sell at the same price and customers have little choice than to patronise them.

Fair point

But ultimately you cant give what you don't have - The buyers in this case. If you increase the price of a product astronomically, for sure your sales would also take a hit.

So its still a loose-loose position for both buyers and sellers

Roland17:
Which is different from what is obtainable here and something that can be mirrored in Nigeria. Betting companies set limits on how much you can wager on a prop and that invariably affects to a reasonable extent, how much you can cash out. How and why is anyone allowed to wager millions in Nigeria?

Think its the same thing if you think about it.

You arent going to bet an amount greater than the cashout, So whats the point.

But you can deposit more and have different bets running at the same time

Itsrm:
I went through the last 25 or so stakes that mrbanks posted on his telegram group on stake.com. He won only one which was 2 odds.

There's no way on earth that guys bets those things he posts and stays in profit. Contrary to popular belief here, one win will not wipe the losses he would have accumulated.

I don't think he has quite told us how he actually makes money. It's certainly not from the betslips he posts.

Anyone who understands how probability works knows this is the most likely outcome.

Those betting companies arent stupid and you arent going to win the house. A lot of factoring goes into what you guys call odds

Even their programming guys who've spent years trying to tilt outcomes will still advise you against it.

Now is there the off chance that you may get lucky, Yes! and this is the only reason why you should do it. Just like dem 2dollars lotto/powerballs and co, You do it and dont bank on it and just hope on luck

Seeing as most people have become fully reliant on it and think its the way out, Its not looking good. Infact these sort of people are likely to come back and still lose it to the betting companies if they ever get lucky

GloriousGbola:
Legacy ShopRite was selling 5alive at a price lower than retailers, to the point that retailers started buying from shoprite to resell. It got so bad they reduced the amount of 5alive taht could be bought by one customer.

Nigeria is a weird place.

Like I said, Information asymmetry really is the problem.

People really need to take matters into their own hands and force the retailers hand.

Maybe walk/drive into the pure water factory and buy a number of bags yourself. Start doing most grocery shopping at recognized malls.

Isnt it the same Nigeria where people queue at NNPC just for as little as a difference of N5 per liter?. The retailers cant be stupid enough to not adjust the moment they start feeling the impact in terms of patronage

swiz123:
They are mostly uneducated and don't care about any economic theory you have to preach.

Which is why in thinking they are smart but in the long run they are also losing. Typical of the Nigerian cutting corners environment

In your example, The amount of time they take to sell at such exorbitant profits could still be equalized if they were selling in bits at the expected premiums

Plus they would not be losing the goodwill they currently are.

swiz123:
Initially, I thought you are an abrodian. If you are in Nigeria, you should know how retailers operate.

While supermarkets rely on making huge turnover daily, retail shops rely on strangling their customers and using emotional blackmail to attack them when they stop buying.

In 2022, a pack of fearless energy drink was sold 1,800 at wholesale price. Cost price was 150, so while Supermarkets sold 170 per one, retail shops sold 250 per one.

Shockingly, the wholesaler who invested millions in his business makes 20 to 30 naira profit on a pack of drink. He supplies to these retail shops hoping that those one will add a reasonable profit margin and sell off quickly so that he can supply again to them as he relies on making bulk sells to get by.

These retailers add stupid profit margin, then take ages to finish selling while the producer and wholesaler suffers.

Another example, a friend who makes and supplies duvets to his customers in Enugu told me that those retailers took ages to finish selling his duvets. He had to go there to find out what was happening. He realized that after selling to them at 12,800 per one, those thieves were selling between 26 to 28k per one.

He had to rent 2 shops in the same market, employed a sales girl and sold himself at 15k per one. They have been fighting him ever since.

This is exactly what these retailers do to producers in Nigeria and we can't progress as a nation until all of them are closed down completely to give way for organized retailing.

Well, they're also losing out given the declining sales/volumes per the bolded.

They're probably just ignorant to not see the impact on their businesses.

larride:
Its greed and wickedness. Simple and short.

Let me give you 2 examples of this greed.

I wanted to buy Oral b toothpaste from the woman selling groceries very close to where I live, she didnt have the big one so I asked which size they had, it was the smallest so I told her to bring it. She told me the price was 650 and all I could say was Ah? For the smallest oral b? She gave all their normal excuses. That same day, I went to a supermarket around my area, I normally dont go to that supermarket because their things are expensive but I needed to get a baby item that I could only get there. I went to the toothpaste stand, saw that they are selling the same oral b I bought in the morning for 400 and that lady sold it to me 650. Just imagine the difference, and that's a supermarket that we usually say their things are expensive o.

Second one is pure water, before we were buying a bag of water at 250 per bag and retailers were selling 1 for 20 naira. On a bag, they will see a profit of 150. 2 weeks ago, pure water from company trucks were increased to 340 per bag and 70% of the people in my area (who were mostly Yorubas) started selling one pure water for 50 naira. Meaning on a bag, they will see a profit of 660. Even the company that are producing the water are not making a profit of 660 per bag. It is mostly the Abokis that are selling pure water 2 for 50 naira, which means on a bag, they make a profit of 160.

Our people are just too wicked, selfish and greedy. When I come online and see people defending these people, I just laugh and shake my head.

I see.

The good old "Information asymmetry". Well buyers need to take matters into their hands and start looking at other (competitive) markets.

Also maybe consumer protection agencies need to step in at this point

swiz123:
They are thieves. It's only in Nigeria that our retailers FOMO without reservation just to suit their narratives. They usually buy their highest quantity when the price is the highest. When the price reduces, it takes them ages to finish selling old stock.

Many of them increase the price of their old stock when current prices increases but fail to reduce the price of the same old stock when current prices reduces.

A perfect example are those fouani thieves selling electronics at Ikeja city mall.

At the risk of coming off as ignorant, my question would be to ask if most of these businesses run as a cartel?.

I see this complaint a lot but simple economics tells me its something that is easily solved by competitive markets.

Ideally most of these goods are price elastic. Strange that these sellers who are also meant to be feeling the impact aren't adjusting. Something is not adding up

larride:
On the issue of CBN and airline backlogs, I find this thread explanation reasonable and logical. What do you think?

Cc Oasis007

Aha!. At least someone else sees it for what it is.

Was very surprised people really thought the airlines were obliged to be paid at the old rates

Recent data doesn't support a lot of the FX doomsday hypothesis up there, so I wonder where all the weak Naira posit is coming from.

In hindsight, I would wager that the move to domicile NNPCL revenue is probably a good one and serving its purpose. Even to the point where CBN is intervening in the retail window. Also there's the Eurobond talks and coming in soon

I'm more interested in the long term play though but in the short term, I don't see what you guys see. Anyone who wants to short the Naira however should do so with his risk managed and or be ready to play the very long game

raumdeuter:
If na 1m Naira and up then Managers and up

Knowing that big 4 offices only exist in Lagos Abuja and some skeletal in Port Harcourt (where itsrm dey kolobi landlord daughter)

Now ask how far can 1m carry a family man in a month in Lagos to be called a big boy

To be fair, Accountants would typically be bad market for any luxury hotelier.

Those guys know the value of money. Even with incredibly high earnings, doubt they would go for such. Except on client expense(s) of course

raumdeuter:
E no even sure for partners anymore as you have to bring in business in these tough times

Yeah.

Most likely the advisory/consulting arm. Always the first to bear the brunt

Itsrm:
Fixed

Just Partners.

Even in the US, SM's are barely clocking 150k

GloriousGbola:
you dont watch guy ritchie?

almost everything he pushes is a beautiful mix of comedy and gangsters

the original gentlemen movie, lock stock and two smoking barrels , snatch

equal parts gore and comedy

you are missing out


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLsWMdxTMcw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgBA1jA2-mo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmq5gWKC0s8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcuDj6J7oCw

Not sure it falls under this category but I absolutely enjoyed watching Trainspotting back in the day.

That ending scene monologue is probably one of my top eureka moment in life.

nihilistjnr:
Lol

Now where have I seen this type of obedient unmasking before...

Hi Olowunl01,

Can you help me unravel the above?

Itsrm:
I also mentioned it earlier. I don't know why these coys don't have a team dedicated to managing their fx exposure.

On second thought, maybe they did and still want to scam the CBN

Its a bit silly to me.

They held back and wanted to go through the CBN via the I&E to repatriate. they could as well have purchased and gone through the parallel markets then.

Now the same rates (I&E) has moved against them, who should take the hit?.

Except there was any form of agreement made with the CBN, which I highly doubt, its best for them to cut their losses and move on.

Itsrm:
From what I understand about Fx backlogs, they wanted to repatriate USD, CBN gave them the naira equivalent at say 460 to a dollar with a promise to provide the dollar at a future date.

Now, CBN is asking them to convert that naira they were given back to USD at the NAFEM window. This means they will get far less value for the naira they hold.

It's unfair on them but I understand the position of the CBN.

Unfair on who?

Whose business is it to hedge their revenue proceeds?

As far as I know the counterparties to most FRA's in Nigeria is still CBN, so why would they lose in 2 folds?

Except there's been some payment terms agreement by the other CBN governor, they would have to take the hit

LordAdam16:
It's not necessarily sensationalist.

Since the demise of Binance P2P/NGN Spot, the parallel market rates (both P2P and Aboki rates) now track the CBN rate.
https://www.cbn.gov.ng/rates/ExchRateByCurrency.asp
Thus, the CBN can now manipulate both the NAFEM and Black Market rates.
All it has to do is sell a tiny amount in NAFEM at a super low rate, and it'll drag down its rate as well as the NAFEM and Black Market rates.
In fact, yesterday it sold at 1350 and that's what dragged the NAFEM rate to 1492.
Today's CBN rate would be less than 1450 and P2P/Aboki will buy at less than 1400.

Why is all of this happening?

Let's circle back to February.
The CBN made a backroom deal with foreign investors.
It'll dramatically increase the fixed-income rate.
The investors will bring their FPI dollar to buy the naira-denominated TBills.
And thanks to the $ inflow, the CBN+FG will use a combination of unorthodox and orthodox measures to drive down the exchange rate.

It's a no-brainer.
The early birds brought in $500m+ (closer to $1B) at 1600+ rate.
And that's why the CBN sold an unprecedented N2.5T in TBills in two weeks.
https://nairametrics.com/2024/02/23/cbn-sells-another-n1-58-trillion-in-treasury-bills-interest-rate-at-19-for-364-day-bill/
A cross-section of analysts from the bulge bracket expect end-of-year rates to be lower than 1200.
Which means their expected ROI is to be 19%+ from TBills + 25%+ from naira appreciation.
At least 44%. Risk-free.
It's the play of the year.

Now, the CBN is keeping its side of the bargain.
We're in Spring. Dollar demand is habitually low this season.
In addition, the aforementioned high-rate fixed income pivot drove $ demand lower.
So it's remarkably easy for Cardi B to manipulate the rates.
Whatever his target rate is, he can get it with a few million dollars.

The first big test will be this Summer.
Demand will surge.
All the people who balked at vacationing at 1900, will splurge at 1200-1400.
Import numbers will rise.
In fact, in the short term (over the next few months), the humongous bill of this sly plan will become apparent.

All of that said, we should be looking at a couple of months of FX stability.
This is an unambiguous positive for the administration.
I still think Cardi B is in over his head.
But he has got his hard-fought W... for now.
At least, businesses should begin to notice an uptick in economic activity and those who had suspended japa plans should get back on the horse.

-Lord

I suspect you've got Fx demand data going by the conviction in your posts. CBN's play is to stabilize in the short term. Isnt Fiscal play supposed to the long term driver again?

There's been some remarkable growth lately in the FX reserves ( which has always been the main issue) so I suspect they can compete at least in the short to mid term.

I hope you also realize there's been some level of M3 repositioning and so long at its still Naira purchasing the dollar, this can be effectively be monitored/contained by the CBN.

Also the bolded is wrong, you are supposed to multiply not add. As basic as it seems, a lot of people keep making this mistake.

Itsrm:
Always thought Bolaji Balogun owns Chapel Hill Denham.

There was a merger.

He owns Chapel Hill. Wale owns/owned Denham management

raumdeuter:
Was Bosun not an Obidient
If they don't want to pick opposition then they should do better background checks

I dont know man.

Something about this whole thing doesnt add up.

Knowing how Naija politics is, I would probably say that both the Bosun guy and this lady must have really lobbied for it. Disingenious given their past political remarks but not surprising as most vocal critics have been found out to be opportunist at the end of the day

Its quite dicey cos CBN should actually be an independent institution but with the way that place is run, politics would really have the most say in appointments.

Personally, I would really like very neutral people to run that institution or at least be a major part of the board. Tells a lot and will help in avoiding a lot of groupthink pervasive in that place.

A40:
Ngannou to me looked more amateurish today than the first fight. I want to know what he was doing in his training exactly

Simplest of traps. AJ was not really disguising anything he was doing. Of course AJ has more punch power than Fury though not a faster puncher however Ngannou's defense was absolutely shocking

I think his MMA natural instinct showed up as soon as he started taking those punches.

The KO punch for instance, he saw it coming but kept his hand/defense lower like a typical MMA fighter

afrodoc2:
Possibly but i just heard Fury reiterate my point that styles make fights. Obviously Ngannou is not an elite boxer but Fury does not have the sort of punching power to take him out so easily.

If Ngannou fights Wilder, AJ, Usyk, Fury the 2 boxers that are likely to dispatch him in such a quick manner are AJ and Wilder.......and those are the 2 least rated of the 4.

I dont know man.

This guy's resume is pathetic to me and I've never been fully convinced. Imagine the story if he had (deservedly) lost that match with Ngannou

Can he take a punch? Yes
Can he box? Maybe
Brawl, footwork ? Not sure

Not even seen him with a fair competition to assess him properly. Last time was Klitschko and even the guy was out of shape

afrodoc2:
What was the talk?

I edited my post.

afrodoc2:
Joshua WICKED!!!!

Your African brother o.

Now we need to revisit that Fury talk.

We may have overated Ngannou based off of that

raumdeuter:
Most new generation Banks are like that. Especially when they start asking staffs to chase deposits
Even for Big 4 sef same type of culture dey

I guess na for Oil coys people dey chill

Yeah I know which is why I highlighted Access and GTB as having the worst of them cos I'm familiar with the banking industry

Ditto the highlighted - Most people agree with KPMG having the worst of them which I'm sure you would allude to

larride:
Yeah I know AIG and Wigwe were ex GTB staff but its news to me that Access is/was a toxic work place.

I did say at management/leadership levels. To be fair, it could also be a banking thing

Most corporate culture transcends especially from where leadership had their formative years

larride:
Access Bank toxic?

Oui Monsieur.

Most are ex GTB, so there you go

GloriousGbola:
https://www.channelstv.com/2024/03/06/video-wigwes-pa-narrates-how-luggage-issues-prevented-him-from-taking-ill-fated-flight/


He said he was supposed to fly in the chopper but on second thought he decided to accompany their luggage by road since the chopper could not carry it.

According to Falaye, he decided to accompany the luggage by road to ensure they arrived safely to his boss who told him it was a brilliant idea.

So he headed to Vegas by road with the luggage while Wigwe, his wife, son and Mr Ogunbajo boarded the chopper to the same destination

Its more about the things that arent said. You dont expect him to start mentioning at his tribute that it was the other way round. Even reading through, the response seemed sarcastic but I'll leave it at that

One other thing - If you ask around especially in the Nigerian banking industry space and those that are really familiar at the corporate high level - There are no other banks more toxic than GT Bank and Access Bank; extremely toxic and the leaders are every representative of it.

They didnt gain the reputation by allowing PA's dictate terms of travel for them

afrodoc2:
God abeg o! Na Hippocratic Oath, not hypocratic oath.

I was far gone in my drivel. Funny how me of all people should know that